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Republicans get Hoeven in North Dakota

North Dakota Gov. John Hoeven (R) has decided to run for the state's newly-open Senate seat, a major recruiting victory for Republicans as they seek to expand the playing field in hopes of capitalizing on a national environment that favors their party.

Hoeven, the most popular elected official in the state, is expected to formally enter the contest this evening in Bismarck. First elected in 2000, Hoeven has won re-election with ease twice and even prior to Sen. Byron Dorgan's (D) surprise retirement last week was weighing the possibility of running.

With Hoeven in the race, North Dakota jumps to the top of Republican pickup opportunities given his proven electoral appeal, the state's clear GOP tilt and the current lack of a solid Democratic candidate. (Democrats are working to find a candidate with former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp the preferred choice.)

Hoeven joins a very solid recruiting class for Republicans -- perhaps their strongest since 2004 -- that includes Reps. Mike Castle (Del.) and Mark Kirk (Ill.), former Rep. Rob Portman (Ohio) and former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton (Colo.). Republicans have also touted former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (N.H.), Secretary of State Trey Grayson (Ky.) and state Sen. Gilbert Baker (Ark.) but all three face serious primary challenges that they may or may not survive.

Democrats have had their fair share of recruiting successes as well -- most notably Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (Mo.), state Attorney General Dick Blumenthal (Conn.) and Charlie Melancon (La.). In Delaware, state Attorney General Beau Biden is expected to run against Castle and, if he does, that would be another recruiting success for Democrats.

What a look at the recruitment scorecard makes clear is that convincing candidates to make races is much more about the political environment in which the pitch is made than about the person -- or committee -- making the pitch.

In 2006 and 2008, Democrats were ascendant and, as a result, a slew of A-level candidates -- Claire McCaskill (Mo.), Bob Casey (Pa.), Sherrod Brown (Ohio), Mark Begich (Alaska), Mark Warner (Va.) etc. -- were open to the recruiting efforts of then Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Chuck Schumer (N.Y.).

Republicans, on the other hand, struggled to convince their top choices -- Hoeven, for example, in 2006 -- to run as the aspiring pols looked at the landscape and thought discretion was the better part of valor.

Fast forward to 2010. With polling showing the national mood has shifted away from Democrats -- although not necessarily toward Republicans just yet -- many of the candidates who passed on races in the past are running now because they sense opportunity.

For Republicans to truly maximize the recruiting benefits afforded them by the national political picture, they need to continue to broaden the playing field into places like Wisconsin and Washington as well as longer shots like Indiana and New York.

Can it be done? Sure. The filing deadlines in Washington (June 11) and Wisconsin (July 13) give Republicans plenty of time to find more serious candidates than they currently have running. Indiana is a tougher lift with filing rapidly approaching -- Feb. 19 -- and former Rep. John Hostettler in the race as the best of a weak bunch against Sen. Evan Bayh (D). And, in New York, a number of Republicans have passed with former Rep. Susan Molinari the latest to say no.

Talk of a Republican takeover of the Senate in 2010 remains a pipe-dream. But, heading into two election cycles -- 2012 and 2014 -- where the numbers heavily favor their party, Republicans, with a few more recruits, could be positioned to significantly cut into Democratic margins this November.

By Chris Cillizza  |  January 11, 2010; 4:05 PM ET
Categories:  Senate  
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Next: Democrats launch full court press in Mass. special election

Comments

Jake:

With Senator Conrad reelected in 2008, and if Hoeven running on the R line, with the way the Rs impose party discipline, Hoeven would be voting opposite Conrad at least 80 percent of the time, which means that on 80 percent of the issues, North Dakota would have no voice in the Senate. Now, that certainly wouldn't bother some of the big state people, you see them littering this message board with comments like North and South Dakota should be combined (which incidentally would create the 4th biggest geographical state in the country-- but while we're on the topic, why not roll Rhode Island into Connecticut, merge New Hampshire and Vermont (combined they'd still be in the bottom 1/3 population wise and area wise) or Delaware into Maryland) but it would be a very big deal to thinking folks in NoDak, as we natives like to call it.

John Hoeven has been a reasonably good governor, it is a job he likes and would have stayed at had Dorgan not decided to retire. His popularity is broad, but not particularly deep, and it is primarily (my sense) based on an image of him as essentially non-partisan and as an administrator. Should he not draw a top-shelf opponent (and realistically the Democratic bench is so thin, that there's only one or two top-shelf opponents out there) he could probably win without jeopardizing how the voters see him. In a race against former AG Heitkamp, running a campaign like what I outlined, I would not necessarily consider him a prohibitive favorite.

Posted by: leuchtman | January 13, 2010 9:46 AM | Report abuse

leuchtman:

Why would it be negating any voice for at least four years?

Posted by: JakeD | January 12, 2010 12:27 PM | Report abuse

The better choice is to keep Hoeven in a job that he's good at, and hire Heidi to represent us in the US Senate; it is a win-win for North Dakota.

Posted by: leuchtman | January 12, 2010 10:46 AM

*****

Thanks leuchtman. I agree wholeheartedly. Are you Dakotan? I am, and I know that people will think that we: We can keep Hoeven in the governor's seat (since he was recently re-elected) and have Heidi, who is extremely talented, serve us in the Senate.

And, frankly, I think Hoeven is doing this because of the encouragement of national "establishment" Rs. He is quite a good administrator; I doubt he will like the legislative side as much. (I don't think he ever served in the state lege, but I might be wrong there.)

Posted by: prairiepopulist | January 12, 2010 11:14 AM | Report abuse

The state convention system makes a viable threat to Hoeven fairly unlikely on the R side, but aside from his supposed popularity (easy landslide reelections that have more to do with the weakness of his opponents than any overwhelming love for John Hoeven), I'm at a loss to understand why everyone seems to think this race is a slam dunk.

If Heidi Heitkamp gets into the race, the dynamics of a federal race actually favor her, since a vote for Hoeven would be negating any voice in the Senate for at least 4 years. A strong campaign could be made essentially following this line:

John Hoeven has been a good Governor, but do you want to have four years with no voice in the US Senate? The better choice is to keep Hoeven in a job that he's good at, and hire Heidi to represent us in the US Senate; it is a win-win for North Dakota. Using that line of attack with ANY Democrat who is a fit for the state, Hoeven is running an uphill campaign, no matter what national pundits and GOP strategists think.

Posted by: leuchtman | January 12, 2010 10:46 AM | Report abuse

Chris

broadwayjoe at 7:58 is harassing other posters - AGAIN


THIS IS THE FOURTH VIOLATION IN THIS THREAD

broadwayjoe is completely hostile to other points of view - he should be banned.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | January 12, 2010 10:41 AM | Report abuse

malis! - Good to see you about. Not sure there is much interesting that is new for your study. Except for the fact that 37th only uses a single full stop after a post.

There's some speculation on the blog that it's a different poster. Not that it makes a difference.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | January 12, 2010 10:40 AM | Report abuse

Is there any sense that Hoeven will be challenged by a Tea Bagger in a primary? He is quite likely one of the few moderate Rs left. He ran the state-owned Bank of North Dakota, fairly described as a socialist institution.

While Hoeven's real popularity may cause a rush to assume his inevitable election, I'd encourage people to sit back a second. If Heidi Heitkamp runs, this could still be a race. Had she not been diagnosed with breast cancer in the middle of the governor's race, she may well have won. She was a very popular tax commissioner (8 yrs) and Attorney General (8 yrs). If she doesn't run, it probably will be a landslide election -- much as all of Byron Dorgan's have been.

Posted by: prairiepopulist | January 12, 2010 8:15 AM | Report abuse

DDAVID

“I always find it funny that conservatives are never content to hate a politician. They also seem to feel the need to hate where the politicians are from.”

Do you not see the irony in your own statement? How many times have D on this blog belittle people from the South and Western states where R are strong. Both sides engage in this farce not just conservatives. How many D called the people of TN racist since they did not elect Ford an African-American to the Senate, while Steele another African-American was defeated in MD and I heard no cry from the left about racism. Maybe people of TN shared different values and ideas than what Ford was espousing and having lived in MD I know many did not share Steele’s ideology, yet one state is racists and the other is not. I am wondering has the state of MD ever elected an African-American to the Senate. You be the judge of your own statement.

Posted by: sliowa1 | January 12, 2010 8:12 AM | Report abuse

@malis: the community would be grateful for a followup study from you regarding the subject "37" ASAP. :)

Posted by: broadwayjoe | January 12, 2010 7:58 AM | Report abuse

Schumer and Clinton, but we don't hate upstate New York ; )

Posted by: JakeD | January 12, 2010 12:27 AM | Report abuse

I always find it funny that conservatives are never content to hate a politician. They also seem to feel the need to hate where the politicians are from. Can't just hate Pelosi. Gotta hate all of San Fransisco or California. Can't just hate Obama. Gotta hate all of Chicago. Can't hate Ted Kennedy. Gotta hate all of Massachusetts. And I'm not sure who brings all the scorn upon New York.

Posted by: DDAWD | January 12, 2010 12:18 AM | Report abuse

"Teddy's death from a brain tumor was not humorous but it was the proof I needed that there is a God. Thank you."

Wow. How many years did it take the Almighty to get around to it? Pretty dang lazy of Him if you ask me.

He must have also had it in for Bob Novak, who died of the same affliction.

You gotta wonder about guys who post under names like "SuzyCcup."

You sure I didn't see you in one of those NBC "To Catch a Predator" shows?

Creepy.

Posted by: Bondosan | January 12, 2010 12:03 AM | Report abuse


'A long night ahead for the lonely loser as usual.

Posted by: Moonbat'

Posted by: drindl | January 11, 2010 11:40 PM | Report abuse

Which is why I thought the 8 out of 10 "purity" test was a good idea. Even 24K gold is not 100% pure.

Posted by: JakeD | January 11, 2010 11:24 PM | Report abuse

I think drivl even got fired from the sweeping up peanuts job.

Oh goody. Now she can post nonstop around the clock and never make sense.

Posted by: Moonbat | January 11, 2010 11:22 PM | Report abuse

'Contact your local TEA activist or Club for Growth representative for further information.'

Apparently, your 'TEA activist' or CFG representative are working at cross purposes, so you will likely get conflicting information..

Posted by: drindl | January 11, 2010 11:01 PM | Report abuse

@ 4:42 PM bsimon1 writes
"Dems' best hope is that Hoeven gets RINOd."

@ 8:17 PM ScottPapelbon writes
"John Hoeven is another RINO who will tell North Dakota he is Mr. Conservative but go to Washington and vote for more spending."


RINO season is still open. Permits aren't required. Contact your local TEA activist or Club for Growth representative for further information. Or, what the hell, make up your own & call it a grassroots effort.

.

Posted by: bsimon1 | January 11, 2010 10:28 PM | Report abuse

'Teddy's death from a brain tumor was not humorous but it was the proof I needed that there is a God. Thank you.'

A pole dancer's version of Christianity... interesting.

Posted by: drindl | January 11, 2010 10:24 PM | Report abuse

Teddy's death is proof that there is a G** you say. What a sick puppy you are. Get help ! Exactly the sentiments of his dear friends Sen. Orin Hatch, Bob Dole and Trent Lott. I pray for the day that we return to being a civil society when thoughts like yours return to the place they belong, the trash bin of history.

Posted by: leichtman | January 11, 2010 9:52 PM | Report abuse

some of us actually come here to visit from time to time to try and have a half way intelligent discussion of politics. It is apparant from the childish/nasty posts here tonight that anything not filled with hatefilled drivel is appropriate. I will leave those comments to the Cheney family and some of tonight's posters since that is all that the right seems ready to offer.

Posted by: leichtman | January 11, 2010 9:46 PM | Report abuse


Teddy would have been so proud...and you find his death to be hilarious? I am sure you also found those Teabagger signs about Senator Kennedy and healthcare humorous. And oh yes you are the real patriot; celebrating the fact that the US lost the Olympic bid. What a real American you must be.

Posted by: leichtman | January 11, 2010 9:39 PM | Report abuse

Teddy's death from a brain tumor was not humorous but it was the proof I needed that there is a God. Thank you.

And yes, I did celebrate when Obama failed to bring the Olympics to the murder capital of the US.

Posted by: SuzyCcup | January 11, 2010 9:46 PM | Report abuse

Broadwayjoe, wow, someone remembers from a year ago! I check in now only rarely and was surprised to see 37th back with the same simplistic rote insults.

He left before I could complete my study last year...is he posting as often as he did then?

I see he still specializes in:

2) Paranoiac accusations
4) Projection (accusing others of behavior exhibited by the subject)

hmmmm...perhaps I'll pick up the study where I left off...

Posted by: malis | January 11, 2010 9:43 PM | Report abuse

Teddy would have been so proud...and you find his death to be hilarious? I am sure you also found those Teabagger signs about Senator Kennedy and healthcare humorous. And oh yes you are the real patriot; celebrating the fact that the US lost the Olympic bid. What a real American you must be.

Posted by: leichtman | January 11, 2010 9:39 PM | Report abuse

and all of her brains, folks, are in one of those 'C-cups.' what a glittering display of pole-dancer wit!

Posted by: drindl | January 11, 2010 9:33 PM | Report abuse

You're right. All of my brains are exactly where you say they are. Thanks for the compliment.

We don't have to wonder where all your brains are, do we? It doesn't take much room to house them, right? They should fit nicely down there.

Posted by: SuzyCcup | January 11, 2010 9:38 PM | Report abuse


'A long night ahead for the lonely loser as usual.

Posted by: Moonbat'

yes, we all feel sorry for you.

Posted by: drindl | January 11, 2010 9:36 PM | Report abuse

I see we are back to the old comfortable usual gang of idiots.

Not one intelligent post on the entire thread.

Got to be a new low CC.

You must be proud.

A long night ahead for the lonely loser as usual.

Posted by: Moonbat | January 11, 2010 9:33 PM | Report abuse

'Darn it, I was really looking forward to Obama whipping out his Negro dialect at the Coakley rallies. It's soooo sexy and Teddy would have been so proud!

Posted by: SuzyCcup | '

and all of her brains, folks, are in one of those 'C-cups.' what a glittering display of pole-dancer wit!

Posted by: drindl | January 11, 2010 9:33 PM | Report abuse

I hear Obama will not campaign for Coakley in Mass. After his hilarious failure with trying to bring the Olympics to Chicago and then his useless repeated appearances to promote Corsine in NJ, I thinks he finally understands it's better to stay home rather than to risk defeat again. Looks like his image can only take so much.

Darn it, I was really looking forward to Obama whipping out his Negro dialect at the Coakley rallies. It's soooo sexy and Teddy would have been so proud!

Posted by: SuzyCcup | January 11, 2010 9:15 PM | Report abuse


That is your problem - you find Americans to be "horrible"

==

ah so that's my problem, just what I needed to clear that up, analysis by a mentally retarded stranger on a blog. Thanks.

But yes, I do find those teabagger losers to be horrible and so does pretty much everyone else, which is why I am so happy they are connected to the GOP. They will destroy it.

In fact pretty much anyone tolerant enough of bigotry and lying to be comfortable in the GOP is someone who should board a bus that gets driven off a cliff. And good riddance to bS rubbish.

Posted by: Noacoler | January 11, 2010 9:13 PM | Report abuse

' Rev. Wright's church, you are OK with all of that.

Seriously, you should consider leaving the country.

Downright UNAMERICAN if you can not tolerate other people's views.'

yes, you are unamerican.. why are you still here -- 24 hours a day? are you a program, a bot? you certainly can't be a human life form, you exhibit no cerebral activity.

Posted by: drindl | January 11, 2010 9:12 PM | Report abuse

...bunch of angry folks in search of a message, and that's about it.

Posted by: drindl | January 11, 2010 9:04 PM
_______

Totally co-sign.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | January 11, 2010 9:12 PM | Report abuse

It is funny how some of you are SSOOOOO offended by the tea party protesters, but Rev. Wright's church, you are OK with all of that.

Seriously, you should consider leaving the country.

Downright UNAMERICAN if you can not tolerate other people's views.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | January 11, 2010 9:05 PM | Report abuse

Joe - you gotta love this. Is it a stillborn movement, or what?

'The message delivered at today's tea party protest of the Detroit Auto Show: protecting American jobs beats telling Democrats to "keep their hands off" the economy.

A group of Michigan tea partiers successfully shut down a protest of the Detroit Auto Show arranged by the National Tax Payer's Union today on the grounds that it was more important to protect American jobs than it was to condemn the government bailout of the auto industry. The AP was on the scene at the protest and found just two tea partiers in attendance. That's despite a national call for a rally at the show by the National Tax Day Tea Party last week.

The organizers of the rally hoped to place hundreds of angry tea partiers in the face of White House officials and prominent Democrats like Nancy Pelosi, who visited the show today. Instead, they ran into an online campaign to shut down the protest from Michigan tea partiers who called it an affront to the thousands of Michiganders who rely on the auto industry for a paycheck.

The Michigan Messenger reported on Michigan tea partier and ex-GM employee Joan Fabiano Facebook campaign urging her fellow protesters to stay away:


"In conclusion it is my opinion that this protest is ill-conceived and quite frankly an attempt at attention grabbing grand standing by those outside and unfortunately inside of Michigan. ... Why must some Americans boycott G.M. and throw INNOCENT people, such as myself, out on the street trying to find another job in this economy? Did I do something wrong? Would you like to see yourself out of a job if your company's leadership made the errors and you had NOTHING to do with it?"

a bunch of angry folks in search of a message, and that's about it.

Posted by: drindl | January 11, 2010 9:04 PM | Report abuse

01.11.10 -- 6:06PM // RECOMMEND RECOMMEND (21)
Talk to President Bush

'In all the nonsense today about Trent Lott's forced resignation over the Strom Thurmond comments, one thing is getting missed. Whatever you think of Lott's comments, he didn't resign because of anything Democrats said. He resigned because President Bush and Karl Rove wanted him out and forced him out. He was never their preferred guy. And they used the opportunity of the brouhaha to force his exit. '

Posted by: drindl | January 11, 2010 9:02 PM | Report abuse

Chris:

Here we go again with broadwayjoe at 8:51 harrassing other posters.

This is the THIRD VIOLATION TONIGHT.

BROADWAYJOE SHOULD BE BANNED - HE SHOULD BE PUT IN A CELL WITH CHRIS FOX - and they can talk to each other.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | January 11, 2010 9:00 PM | Report abuse

"Please tell us what is so horrible about those people.


Please tell.........


Posted by: 37thand0street | January 11, 2010 8:39 PM"
___________

Well, 37, you asked...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/16/10-most-offensive-tea-par_n_187554.html

Posted by: broadwayjoe | January 11, 2010 9:00 PM | Report abuse

'At least when I come back, no one knows its me.
Posted by: 37thand0street '|

that's like that little game you play with babies -- peek-a-boo.

Posted by: drindl | January 11, 2010 8:56 PM | Report abuse

It's deja vu all over again...

"Update: A Study on Motivation and Societal Impact of the Extremist-Obsessive Blog Poster
Subject: “37th” (shortname for subject using approximately 20 different variations of a userID containing the root phrase “37thandO”)

Subject’s postings (through Jan 2, 4:56pET) to the string “Best House Campaigns of 2008” were previously collected and classified in four defined categories. This entry appends subject’s additional posting.

As of Jan 3 10:17aET, 37th owned 14 (+3) of 64 (+6) total entries, raising the subject’s percentage of total postings to this string from 19% to 22%.

Number and percentage of on-topic postings: 0 and 0%

1) Simplistic insult of individuals and groups: 22 (+2)
2) Paranoiac accusations: 6 (+1)
3) Rote repetition of fantasy scenarios 19 (+4)
4) Projection (accusing others of behavior exhibited by the subject) 9 (+2)

Subject has initiated posting to two additional strings. Data currently being collected and analyzed. When sufficient data has been collected results will be posted to those strings.

Posted by: malis | January 3, 2009 2:30 PM"

Posted by: broadwayjoe | January 11, 2010 8:51 PM | Report abuse

Noacoler


There is nothing wrong with any of those people


That is your problem - you find Americans to be "horrible"

Why don't you leave the country, as well as this blog ???


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | January 11, 2010 8:47 PM | Report abuse

Noacoler


You have only been banned 4 times - however everyone knows it's you when you come back

At least when I come back, no one knows its me.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | January 11, 2010 8:45 PM | Report abuse

Speaking their minds? They don't have minds, they're Palinites.

Behold "free the markets not prisoners.". Is that someone who should be managing her own life? I think not.

What's so horrible about those people? Are you blind?

Posted by: Noacoler | January 11, 2010 8:44 PM | Report abuse

I object to the term "teabagger" - it is overly sexual - pornographic - and derogatory.


What happened to the liberals>


For people who honestly believe they are better than other people, their actions and words fall far short..........


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | January 11, 2010 8:42 PM | Report abuse

I can only hope that Rubio pulls the upset, may be only a pipe dream but curious why few political bloggers seem to discuss anything beyond N Dakota and Nevada Senate races, as though there are no problems with GOP Senate seats? It is likely there will be D and R surprises but it is far from a done deal as the righties want us to believe.

Posted by: leichtman | January 11, 2010 8:41 PM | Report abuse

margaretmeyers


What exactly do you object to - those Americans speaking their minds???

Please tell us what is so horrible about those people.

Please tell.........


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | January 11, 2010 8:39 PM | Report abuse

They call themselves teabaggers, sieve-brain.

Shut up and go away, 37th, and stop demanding that real contributors be banned while you're clogging the blog with childish garbage.

Posted by: Noacoler | January 11, 2010 8:38 PM | Report abuse

A quick check of the Internet indicates the Rubio-is-tied narrative started with a...Rasmussen poll.

Just as the Brown-ties-Coakley narrative was started by a ...Rasmussen poll.

Sad.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | January 11, 2010 8:35 PM | Report abuse

AGAIN broadwayjoe


broadwayjoe IS OFF TOPIC AT 8:23

When will this breaking of the rules stop ?

Broadwayjoe should be BANNED.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | January 11, 2010 8:29 PM | Report abuse

on what planet is Lieberman a moderate maybe to the rightwing R loonies? Snowe and Collins are the only Senate Rs left and lately I would no longer put them in the camp of moderates. I would like someone to name all of the R Senate moderates beyond those 2 and the New England Senate seats they control aside from Maine. Incidentally Nelson still votes with the D party on most issues, cauces with them and as I recall Lieberman lost the D primary. That was his problem not the party's. Again Crist is no longer seen as the rising star in the R party; wonder why.

Posted by: leichtman | January 11, 2010 8:28 PM | Report abuse

37th and O cannot argue with the parade of horribles in that photo album. What a sorry bunch, clinging to their ... clinging to their... right to be small-minded.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | January 11, 2010 8:25 PM | Report abuse

Great NYT article on ending the filibuster.

Lieberman and Nelson don't want any part of that.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/11/opinion/11geoghegan.html?ref=opinion

Posted by: broadwayjoe | January 11, 2010 8:23 PM | Report abuse

scottpapelbon is right.

Google "Hoeven RINO" and look what you get. Like that Republican ex-governor with the 'stach in Iowa, he's another small-government-talking, big-government-spending Republican.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | January 11, 2010 8:22 PM | Report abuse

Broadwayjoe:

Would you please stop antagonizing people


Your comment at 814 has NOTHING to do with the topic


Teabagger is a highly sexual and offensive term


AND no one "invaded" Washington - US citizens are allowed to freely assemble there.

YOU SHOULD BE BANNED.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | January 11, 2010 8:20 PM | Report abuse

There is enough talk t put some wind in the GOP sails. Now if they just had a platform or an agenda or some solutions.

People will realize that voting for the GOP is not going to solve their economic problems, won't lower their local taxes, won't decrease unemployment and won't make them safer. Why? Because voting for Republicans GAVE them our current economic problems, our higher local taxes, our high unemployment and our unsafe world. It's easier for the GOP to make a lot of noise and point their fingers and complain, but sooner or later they have to propose solutions that the voters can embrace and

t h e y d o n o t h a v e a n y.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | January 11, 2010 8:17 PM | Report abuse

John Hoeven is another RINO who will tell North Dakota he is Mr. Conservative but go to Washington and vote for more spending. No one believes me? Look at his record in Bismarck. Lots and lots of spending. He voted for Clinton and gave money to liberal candidates. We don't need six years of John Hoeven. The country can't afford it.

Posted by: ScottPapelbon | January 11, 2010 8:17 PM | Report abuse

Awhile back the teabaggers invaded DC. The city hasn't been the same since. "Highlights" of their visit are below.

http://washingtonindependent.com/38877/scenes-from-the-dc-tea-party-more-photos

Posted by: broadwayjoe | January 11, 2010 8:14 PM | Report abuse

And, we all know what the Democrats do to moderates in their party like Lieberman and Nelson ; )

Posted by: JakeD | January 11, 2010 8:14 PM | Report abuse

Crist regardless of how I mistype his name, is going to have problems in the primary, and I have yet to see how a Rubio candidacy will help the GOP capture seats.

I refer you to the the spin Cillizza puts on this caption which nowhere mentions Crist as part of the GOP's solid recruiting class. He was talked about as the wunder kan and possible McCain VP nominee, not that very long time ago, and now the only wonder is can he beat back the Fla Teabaggers. Oh how quickly fortunes rise and fall in the GOP. Crist is a moderate as far as the GOP is concerned who has had positive things to say about POTUS, and we all know what the GOP does with moderates in their party and anything positive ever said by their candidates. They chew them up and throws them back. Curious why any of them would not join Specter and simply leave the GOP.

I distinctly recall all of the grandeoise predictions and arguments they started here in Nov 2008 about counting their victories at the ballot box. We will see how quickly their fortunes disipiate.

Posted by: leichtman | January 11, 2010 8:07 PM | Report abuse

Hah, Nate Silver specifically commented on how teabaggers should probably get to know Griffith before challenging him. They might actually like him.

Posted by: DDAWD | January 11, 2010 7:44 PM | Report abuse

d posted: "In December, ThinkProgress reported that ten GOP incumbents were being challenged by tea party activists in Republican primaries. In the interim weeks, many more tea party activists have stepped up to challenge both top Republican recruits and more Republican incumbents, denouncing the hand-picked candidates as too moderate and current lawmakers as divorced from conservative governance."
___

Great news for the sign companies that provide the cardboard for the BHO-as-Joker and n-word signs preferred by the higher level tea baggers. Is Tea Party President Dale Robertson running for any public office?

Posted by: broadwayjoe | January 11, 2010 7:30 PM | Report abuse

"You never know what is going to happen in November.

GO SCOTT BROWN.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | January 11, 2010 5:42 PM"
___

Where's he going? The latest mainstream poll sponsored by the Boston Globe shows him down by 15 to Coakley. Not quite the "comeback" this space has reported.

Excerpt from some fact based reporting:

"Democrat Martha Coakley, buoyed by her durable statewide popularity, enjoys a solid, 15-percentage-point lead over Republican rival Scott Brown as the race for US Senate enters the homestretch, according to a new Boston Globe poll of likely voters.
...

Half of voters surveyed said they would pick Coakley, the attorney general, if the election were held today, compared with 35 percent who would pick Brown. Nine percent were undecided, and a third candidate in the race, independent Joseph L. Kennedy, received 5 percent.

Coakley’s lead grows to 17 points - 53 percent to 36 percent - when undecideds leaning toward a candidate are included in the tally. ... The results indicate that Brown has a steep hill to climb to pull off an upset in the Jan. 19 election. Indeed, the poll indicated that nearly two-thirds of Brown’s supporters believe Coakley will win."

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2010/01/10/senate_poll_coakley_up_15_points/

34, 35, 36, __, 38, 39...


Posted by: broadwayjoe | January 11, 2010 7:23 PM | Report abuse

this may change the equation:

'In December, ThinkProgress reported that ten GOP incumbents were being challenged by tea party activists in Republican primaries. In the interim weeks, many more tea party activists have stepped up to challenge both top Republican recruits and more Republican incumbents, denouncing the hand-picked candidates as too moderate and current lawmakers as divorced from conservative governance:

– Despite his recent conversion to the GOP, Rep. Parker Griffith (R-AL) is facing a serious challenge from tea party activist Les Phillip in the Republican primary. Local conservative radioshow host Dale Jackson said both Michael Steele and the NRCC should be “ashamed” to support Griffith. “He was unacceptable a year ago and he’s acceptable now? A year ago, they were saying this guy was a murderer.”

– Rep. Ralph Hall (R-TX) has drawn several tea party challengers in his primary election. Jerry Ray Hall – no relation – even submitted his ballot application with the word “Tea” after his middle name.

– Rep. Kenny Marchant (R-TX) faces developer and tea party supporter Frank Roszell in a primary. “No one will jerk my chain but my wife,” he promises on his campaign Web site.

– Chris Younts is challenging Rep. Mike Conaway (R-TX) for the Republican nomination. “Contrary to opinions on both sides, the Tea Party movement was never intended to play the role of an infatuated, doting cheerleader of all players with an ‘R’ on their jersey, regardless of past indiscretions,” noted Younts.

– The National Republican Campaign Committee has placed its support behind State Sen. Robert Hurt (R-VA) to run against Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA). However, Hurt has been eviscerated by his tea party opponents for voting to raise taxes and recently, for refusing to participate in the tea party-organized debates.

– Former Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-IN), in a coup for the NRCC, announced that he intends to run against Rep. Baron Hill (D-IN). However, tea party activists Todd Young and Travis Hankins have been campaigning for this seat for months, and it remains to be seen if Sodrel can surpass them in the GOP primary.

The emergence of the tea parties as the opposition movement says more about Republicans than it does the agenda of the Obama administration. The Republican Party has not articulated coherent plans to deal with the health care crisis, poverty, global warming, dependence on foreign oil, financial industry abuses, or any other major national issue. Perhaps that is why so many tea party-goers are now challenging the Republican status quo.

Posted by: drindl | January 11, 2010 7:11 PM | Report abuse

Wouldn't the Post business department prefer that the RNC pay for this ad? Extra revenue always helps.

@Jake: Good news. I convinced the HOF Committee to lower the minimum votes you need for induction to four. You have my vote already. So if you can find three more votes between now and February 1, you're into the Hall of Fame. All the best.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | January 11, 2010 7:09 PM | Report abuse

"Republicans can expect to at least come out with 45 R senators in 2011. That's if things go great for the Democrats."

Meh, 45 is the ceiling for Republicans. They are just having to do too much work in hostile ground. ND is a slam dunk, and maybe Delaware if Biden doesn't enter, but other than that, there are no easy gets.

Look at what the Dems did in 2008. They picked up eight seats, but the Alaska pickup was the only one from a red state. In 2006, four of the six pickups were in 2008 blue states. Missouri and Montana were the two exceptions.

Republicans are looking at seats in Delaware, Illinois, Nevada, Colorado, and Pennsylvania. All states that were very much for Obama. They do have ND and Arkansas. Even the Republican vulnerabilities are in places like Ohio, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Florida, places that went blue in 2008.

Republicans don't really seem to have much safe ground in which to try and pick up seats once you get past ND and Ark. That's going to be a problem for them.

None of these places are unwinnable, but Republicans will presumably have finite resources to fight these battles and will have to play some defense in Florida and New Hampshire and Missouri.

Given all that, 45 is probably the best the Republicans can hope for. (not that picking up five seats is bad)

Posted by: DDAWD | January 11, 2010 6:32 PM | Report abuse

You never know what is going to happen in November.


GO SCOTT BROWN.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | January 11, 2010 5:42 PM | Report abuse

leichtman:

Either Crist (not Jesus "Christ" last time I checked) or Rubio will win in Florida. Just wait and see : )

Posted by: JakeD | January 11, 2010 5:41 PM | Report abuse

reason5:

The Boston Herald reports that if Brown actually wins, MA Democratic Secretary of State William Galvin is planning to delay certifying the race for at least 10 days or until February 20. That would let appointed-Senator Paul Kirk cast a 60th vote for Obamacare. Note how Galvin certified the prior change in law / Kirk's appointment to the U.S. Senate on the SAME DAY it was signed into law rather than waiting the customary 90 days. I will continue my boycott of Boston if that happens again.

What will happen if Democrats pass their health care bill by denying to seat a duly-elected Republican? My prediction: Firestorm. National firestorm.

Posted by: JakeD | January 11, 2010 5:39 PM | Report abuse

Notice that Gov Christ' name is left out of your comment that this is the R's strongest recruiting class. It is obvious that Rubio and the teabaggers will get in the way of this great recruiting class.

Posted by: leichtman | January 11, 2010 5:38 PM | Report abuse

Hoeven will be an easy win! Yet another Republican victory. If Democrat's can't recruit Beau Biden in Delaware, that's another loss as Mike Castle is going to be the new US Senator of Delaware. If Biden runs, I'd say Castle has a leg up on even Biden and is a 60%-40 chance to win. Democrats can't feel good about 2010. They are not leading in any race. Missouri is their best shot with Carnahan, and that is only a 50%-50% shot. In Kansas, Kentucky and Florida their hopes of winning those seats are pretty well over. In New Hampshire & Ohio their hopes seem to be decreasing everyday. In NH, AG Kelly Ayotte is a great candidate and can beat her R primary challengers & US Rep. Hodes in a GE. She is the front runner there. In Ohio, Democrats had a good opportunity but are trying to blow it by running a primary between Lt. Gov Fisher & Sec. of State Brunner. Fisher is going to win the primary, and he has lots of ties to unpopular governor Ted Strickland, who is also in alot of trouble in 2010 against Frmr. US Rep. John Kaish. Republicans, on the other hand, are pushing hard to win in a few states: Illinois, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Arkansas, Nevada, North Dakota & California. Republicans also have good shots to win in Washington, New York (Gillibrand) and Wisconsin if they can recruit the right candidate. With little room to play offense and having to play defense on so many fronts, Republicans can expect to at least come out with 45 R senators in 2011. That's if things go great for the Democrats. One also mentioned is in Mass. to replace Ted Kennedy. St. Senator Brown is giving Coakley a run and in the newest poll released, actually lead Coakley 48%-47% from Public Policy Polling. If Brown wins, that kills healthcare and he gets in the Senate now. That kills healthcare and ends Obama's filibuster proof majority. Dems. have to worry about Mass., not just what happens in 11 months.

Posted by: reason5 | January 11, 2010 5:35 PM | Report abuse

It's better to have 45 to 48 Republicans in the Senate. Just enough to cause gridlock, while the Dems. remain totally to blame for everything wrong in advance of Obama's 2012 re-election campaign. 2012 is shaping up to be a Republican avalanch.

Posted by: kenpasadena | January 11, 2010 5:14 PM | Report abuse

Well, since Castle and Portman don't currently have an opponent, they should look good. Of course when Portman has to run in Ohio as a Bush republican things just might change. When he has to run AGAINST the stimulus bill that will add jobs to Ohio when NOTHING Portman or Boehner has to offer will eben look like a jobs bill, and Obama will probably be working on more economic stimulus, opposed, of course, by John (let my economy fail) Boehner, he just may be in some trouble.

If that is the measure of the quality of the Republican field, it is just a field of dreams. (And Joe Jackson WAS corrupt.)

Posted by: ceflynline | January 11, 2010 5:11 PM | Report abuse

"When did they split the Dakota territory into North and South - why did they do that ?"

wikipedia says "An increasing population caused the Dakota Territory to be divided in half and a bill for statehood for both Dakotas titled the Enabling Act of 1889 was passed on February 22, 1889." Maybe it makes sense to rejoin them as one in the Disabling Act of 2010. Do we really need 4 Senators to represent 1.5 million people?

Posted by: bsimon1 | January 11, 2010 5:11 PM | Report abuse

When did they split the Dakota territory into North and South - why did they do that ?

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | January 11, 2010 5:01 PM | Report abuse

"Should've qualified the statement. Hoeven's tenure as Gov is not compatible with TEA/CfG orthodoxy. If he is forced to kowtow to such, Dems will have an opening to appeal to people who understand it takes money to run the government & the government does actually provide worthwhile services. In other words, Dems' best hope is that Hoeven gets RINOd.

Posted by: bsimon1 "

Seems like that will be the case for a good number of these recruits. Republicans will be happy that they have a strong chance at Biden's seat, but the teabaggers will absolutely despise Castle.

Posted by: DDAWD | January 11, 2010 4:49 PM | Report abuse

"Dems will have a hard time finding a candidate more compelling to ND voters.*"


Should've qualified the statement. Hoeven's tenure as Gov is not compatible with TEA/CfG orthodoxy. If he is forced to kowtow to such, Dems will have an opening to appeal to people who understand it takes money to run the government & the government does actually provide worthwhile services. In other words, Dems' best hope is that Hoeven gets RINOd.

Posted by: bsimon1 | January 11, 2010 4:42 PM | Report abuse

Hoeven is a good fit for the northern half of dakota territory. Dems will have a hard time finding a candidate more compelling to ND voters.

Posted by: bsimon1 | January 11, 2010 4:38 PM | Report abuse

"A very solid recruiting class for Republicans -- perhaps their strongest since 2004"

This is the wimpiest statement I've ever seen. First, having the strongest recruiting class since 2004 is meaningless. That only means that it's stronger than 2006 and 2008, two elections that the Republicans lost badly. And second, you don't even have the guts to make the statement positively; you have to equivocate that they "perhaps" have a stronger class than 2006 or 2008. Lame.

Posted by: Blarg | January 11, 2010 4:32 PM | Report abuse

Thanks Chris, any way you could beat the bushes and find out what the hold up is with Beau Biden?

Posted by: shrink2 | January 11, 2010 4:25 PM | Report abuse

What are Gillebrand's numbers? Is she vulnerable?

Posted by: DDAWD | January 11, 2010 4:24 PM | Report abuse

"A national environment that favors their party"

a bright red balloon inflated with hot emotional air, floating into a blue summer sky sparkly with Unreal Things.

Posted by: Noacoler | January 11, 2010 4:23 PM | Report abuse

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