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The most important number in politics today

1

That's the number of Democratic-held Senate seats currently ranked by the non-partisan Cook Political Report as leaning toward a Republican takeover in 2010, a dubious distinction that falls to embattled Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd.

The Cook Report moved Dodd into its "lean Republican" category earlier today, a decision that Senate editor Jennifer Duffy explained thusly:

"It is increasingly clear to both independent analysts and Democratic leaders that Dodd is just too badly damaged to have a decent shot at getting re-elected, almost regardless of who wins the Republican nomination. Democrats have given Dodd time to attempt to repair his problems, but nothing appears to have helped enough to salvage his position."

The Cook Report move is another blow for Dodd who has been reeling under faltering poll numbers and repeated rumors that he is planning to step aside. While most people living outside the Beltway may not have heard of the publication it is unquestionably influential within political Washington. (Full disclosure: The Fix is an alma mater of Charlie Cook's shop and his eponymous Report.)

Given that, the move will complicate Dodd's efforts to make the case to the Democratic smart set that he can and will win. Party insiders were already fretting privately about Dodd's chances in a state that should be a slam dunk for any Democrat and Cook's judgment on the race may drive those worries public.

As we noted in the Morning Fix today, the White House has gone all out for Dodd in the past six weeks but that support could erode quickly if a poll or polls come out sometime soon that show the Connecticut Democrat has gone past the point of no return politically.

Again, Duffy:

"Dodd is enormously well liked by his Democratic colleagues, which is the primary reason he hasn't gotten the 'David Paterson treatment' already. But, Democrats can scarcely afford to lose the seat, and as much as his colleagues are loath to humiliate him, business is business."

Dodd insiders insist he has no plans to retire and, in fact, expect him to deliver an outstanding final fundraising quarter of the year. At this point, however, money may be immaterial to Dodd's chances in the same way that Gov. Jon Corzine's (D-N.J.) heavy personal spending in his re-election bid earlier this year couldn't save him from the ire of the voters.

The next month will be critical for Dodd. A positive poll couple with a solid fundraising quarter could buy him some more time to turn things around. A single negative survey, however, could force either the White House or the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to step in to get him out of the race.

By Chris Cillizza  |  December 10, 2009; 3:57 PM ET
Categories:  Senate  
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Next: Fix Poll: The worst campaign of 2009?

Comments

Sometimes I feel like they are two sides of the same coin, and you could not tell me where the one side starts and the other ends.

Posted by: margaretmeyers
----------------------------------------
kinky

Posted by: leapin | December 11, 2009 3:48 PM | Report abuse

If it looks like the primary is going to be that close, my wife and I will have to register Democratic then too ; )

Posted by: JakeD | December 11, 2009 9:20 AM | Report abuse

CTman, I hope that is the scenarion that plays out. There is not enough time for Dodd to disassociate himself from his too cozy relationship with the financial entities that tripped over their own greed. More politicians needs to understand that sometimes you need to fold your hand and push away from the table.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | December 11, 2009 6:14 AM | Report abuse

I live here and the sentiment is bad bad for Dodd and to tell you the truth I HOPE HE GETS THE BOOT !!!!!

Posted by: yourmomscalling | December 11, 2009 4:20 AM | Report abuse

The Cook Report is being very cautious. Even if you include only states with an elected Senator on the ballot for the same party, I would still add Nevada as one that is more likely to swing than not. By my estimate you can add Colorado Delaware and Pennsylvania as states more likely to flip than not. Arkansas and Illinois, like New Hampshire, Ohio and Missouri, I would still rate as tossups.

Of course, Connecticut Democrats can move their state from the top of the Cook Report's list and the Fix's by choosing a new candidate. It wouldn't make them safe, but would greatly improve their chances.

Posted by: qlangley | December 11, 2009 2:06 AM | Report abuse

CtMan wrote: "but will face the race of his life against giant-killer Rep. Chris Murphy, who will beat him in a presidential year."


"And, has thou slain the Jabberwock?
Come to my arms, my beamish boy!
O frabjous day! Callooh! Callay!'
He chortled in his joy.

Posted by: nodebris | December 10, 2009 11:10 PM | Report abuse

Dodd will announce that he will retire gracefully early next year (I say by February once health care is wrapped up), and ironically will end his term with 70% approval in Connecticut. He's actually very well-liked up here, but the bad press and decades of him in public life have just pushed people to want someone else.

Unfortunately for Rob Simmons, that someone will be Dick Blumenthal, who will win quite handily.

And, Fix, keep your eyes open for the 2012 race up here. Lieberman will run again, because he is a political creature and he is dead without the attention he gets as a senator, but will face the race of his life against giant-killer Rep. Chris Murphy, who will beat him in a presidential year.

Posted by: CTMan | December 10, 2009 10:56 PM | Report abuse

Dodd will announce that he will retire gracefully early next year (I say by February once health care is wrapped up), and ironically will end his term with 70% approval in Connecticut. He's actually very well-liked up here, but the bad press and decades of him in public life have just pushed people to want someone else.

Unfortunately for Rob Simmons, that someone will be Dick Blumenthal, who will win quite handily.

And, Fix, keep your eyes open for the 2012 race up here. Lieberman will run again, because he is a political creature and he is dead without the attention he gets as a senator, but will face the race of his life against giant-killer Rep. Chris Murphy, who will beat him in a presidential year.

Posted by: CTMan | December 10, 2009 10:56 PM | Report abuse

The question is below, CC.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 10, 2009 9:39 PM | Report abuse

Chris Cillizza as long as you're here could you please respond to my question to you on the previous thread? I regard it as important and so should you.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 10, 2009 9:23 PM | Report abuse

Nods to you, Gallenod. The sins of the parent should not pass on to the child.

Posted by: nodebris | December 10, 2009 9:16 PM | Report abuse

In a brief attempt at civility...

Jake, please pass on my congratulations to your daughter when she graduates. The Coast Guard Academy is a fine school and I have known and worked with many fine Coasties over the years. Hopefully she will get to meet Thad Allen at the event, as he's one of the sharpest and most inspiring leaders I've ever met.

Posted by: Gallenod | December 10, 2009 9:09 PM | Report abuse

Mr. Cillizza:

You will note that I said "NO ONE here writes about his upcoming move to Vietnam, bird collection" etc. (Emphasis Added).

Posted by: JakeD | December 10, 2009 9:01 PM | Report abuse

prowls from unsuspecting underaged sexual conquests . . .

Posted by: JakeD

==

Just for the record, Chris Cillizza, in light of yesterday's admonition .. you're cool with this, right? Calling another poster a pederast?

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 10, 2009 8:54 PM | Report abuse

gmart68b wrote, "I think you mean 'The Fix is an alumnus of the Cook Report.' The Cook Report is The Fix's alma mater."

Probably, although the image of CC as a nourishing mother to Charlie Cook calls to mind some Flip Wilson getups that were even funnier than CC's garb in "Mouthpiece Theater".

Posted by: douglaslbarber | December 10, 2009 6:31 PM | Report abuse

MM- You called it. They are obviously on totally opposite sides politically, but equally immature...

Posted by: justmike | December 10, 2009 6:29 PM | Report abuse

LOL!!!

Posted by: JakeD | December 10, 2009 6:24 PM | Report abuse

Sometimes I feel like they are two sides of the same coin, and you could not tell me where the one side starts and the other ends.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | December 10, 2009 6:24 PM | Report abuse

I could name 2 folks on here who should take their personal crap somewhere else. It's getting pretty tiresome.

Posted by: justmike | December 10, 2009 6:18 PM | Report abuse

Oh, that's right, no one else here writes about his upcoming move to Vietnam, bird collection, or where he eats, exercises, and otherwise prowls from unsuspecting underaged sexual conquests . . .

Posted by: JakeD | December 10, 2009 6:14 PM | Report abuse


Throw all 100 Senators out and America would be better for it.

Plenty of the other 300,000,000 Americans could do a better job than the current bunch disgracing the Senate has.

Dumping Dodd would be a nice start on cleaning up Congress.


Posted by: DagnyT | December 10, 2009 6:08 PM | Report abuse

For a guy who claims he doesn't care what people think about him you suuuuuuure spend a lot of time trying to build up your image in the minds of distant strangers, Jake.

You're the only uh person posting here who writes mostly about himself, do you realize that?

You care a LOT what other people think, just like an adolescent. And, why, you write exactly like one too, with smilies and IM-speak acronyms that real adults don't use.

You're a phoney, Jake, top to bottom, and everyone knows it.

Everyone.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 10, 2009 5:53 PM | Report abuse

That's right, GoldAndTanzanite, just like your misguided "conclusion" that I didn't buy a Corvette, instead of renting one, and that no one can post here from an iPhone. Keep 'em coming, though.

Posted by: JakeD | December 10, 2009 5:38 PM | Report abuse

I couldn't care less what your opinion of me is.

==

awww bibby-bibby needa hanky?

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 10, 2009 5:32 PM | Report abuse

I don't care if you don't
I don't care if you don't
I don't care if you don't care

Posted by: nodebris | December 10, 2009 5:24 PM | Report abuse

It's not an opinion, Jake, it's a conclusion that all readers here have identically arrived at. You're not smart enough to pull off the lies you tell, nobody believes them, and you don't have the capacity to understand why.

Moving from California to Connecticut to cast a vote? Nonsense. Nobody would do that, that just isn't how people behave in real life. Ergo, you're not only lying, you're fantasizing.

It's kind of funny to watch you squeal more and more hoping someone will take you seriously, but that isn't going to happen.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 10, 2009 5:10 PM | Report abuse

I'm not lying, but as I told "nodebris" I couldn't care less what your opinion of me is.

Posted by: JakeD | December 10, 2009 5:06 PM | Report abuse

You must be getting really desperate for attention Jake if you think anyone is going to believe so extravagant a collection of lies as that.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 10, 2009 5:02 PM | Report abuse

Well, our grand-daughter will be graduating from the Coast Guard Academy there as well -- we are only going to rent a house for a couple months, but that's enough for in-State residency requirements -- it will be nice to see her, and have a place our son and his wife can stay when they come out to visit her. The Holiday Inn where we usually stay is nice, but that Outback steakhouse gets a bit old after the fourth or fifth time ; )

Once Dodd is defeated, we will move back to San Diego.

Posted by: JakeD | December 10, 2009 4:58 PM | Report abuse

The Republican candidate has to be a factor here. Rob Simmons would have a much better chance against Dodd than Linda McMahon, but she's catching up to him in the polls.

This number could use some context. How many Republican seats are "Lean Democratic" in Cook's analysis? I'd check myself, but I'm not paying for Cook.

Posted by: Blarg | December 10, 2009 4:47 PM | Report abuse

Don't need to, he hung himself long ago

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 10, 2009 4:43 PM | Report abuse

Give him more rope, G&T.

Posted by: nodebris | December 10, 2009 4:40 PM | Report abuse

Nobody believes anything you write, Jake, and that claim you just made shows why.

Do you really think anyone believes you would pack up your belongings, move out of your trailer, deflate your wife, and take the Greyhound all the way across the country to CAST A VOTE?

That's just demented.

We readers, however, are not.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 10, 2009 4:35 PM | Report abuse

I certainly hope that Sen. Dodd makes it to the primary at least (my wife and I are planning to move to New London just so we can vote against him : )

Posted by: JakeD | December 10, 2009 4:26 PM | Report abuse

DODD WILL BEAT THE BAD COUNTRYWIDE RAP

Connecticut Democrats already are embarrassed by the political expediency displayed by Joe Lieberman, who could use his chairmanship of the Senate Homeland Security Committee to remedy apparent civil and human rights violations by units of the Department of Homeland Security -- but has failed to lead on the issue.

Sen. Dodd is a great champion of civil, human and economic rights for all Americans. The Countrywide affair smells like an entrapment scheme -- who among us with a steady job and good credit hasn't been offered a "preferred" loan rate?

Any "problem" Sen. Dodd may have with the pundits can and will be countermanded by an effective campaign to remind Connecticut residents that the Senator is a champion of the people and deserves to retain his seat.

***

OBAMA WRONG: U.S. DOES TORTURE -- ITS OWN CITIZENS, SAYS VETERAN JOURNALIST

• Regional Homeland Security- administered fusion centers use a nationwide microwave/laser radiation "directed energy" weapons system, employing cell towers and satellites, to silently, invisibly torture, impair, physiologically and neurologically subjugate unconstitutionally "targeted" Americans and their families -- an American genocide hiding in plain sight.

IS PRESIDENT OBAMA AN UNKNOWING VICTIM OF SILENT MICROWAVE/LASER 'DIRECTED ENERGY WEAPONS' ENTRAINMENT?

See "comments" section at:

http://nowpublic.com/world/obama-wrong-west-point-u-s-does-torture-its-own-citizens
http://nowpublic.com/world/gestapo-usa-govt-funded-vigilante-network-terrorizes-america
OR (if link is corrupted): NowPublic.com/scrivener re: "GESTAPO USA"

Posted by: scrivener50 | December 10, 2009 4:25 PM | Report abuse

I think you mean "The Fix is an alumnus of the Cook Report." The Cook Report is The Fix's alma mater.

Posted by: gmart68b | December 10, 2009 4:19 PM | Report abuse

he most important number in politics today
1

That's the number of Democratic-held Senate seats currently ranked by the non-partisan Cook Political Report as leaning toward a Republican takeover in 2010, a dubious distinction that falls to embattled Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd.

==

Yet the table to the right shows seven Democratic Senators "in trouble."

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | December 10, 2009 4:17 PM | Report abuse

If Connecticut's governor were a Democrat, Obama could have already given Dodd a soft landing in the Cabinet or as an ambassador.

Dodd will not go easily because he believes deep in his heart that the voters of Connecticut will come back to him. Unfortunately, his brain is apparently not engaged in this process yet. It's going to take a crowbar the size of Archimedes' mythical lever to pry him out of the Democratic primary. Still, there is a chance that if his numbers don't improve he'll step aside.

But if he refuses to go willingly, Blumenthal should run in the primary and take him out like Ned Lamont did Lieberman. Unlike Lamont, however, Blumenthal could win a general election against both Dodd trying the independent route and/or anyone the Republicans could run against him.

Posted by: Gallenod | December 10, 2009 4:13 PM | Report abuse

Perhaps “Countrywide” Chris can get conjure some campaign financing from Bank of America now.

Posted by: leapin | December 10, 2009 4:07 PM | Report abuse

I agree with you CC, my prediction is the
the White House will whack him, but not yet.
Dodd still has some work to do...

Posted by: shrink2 | December 10, 2009 4:07 PM | Report abuse

Dodd losing re-election?

That's 'Change' we can believe in

Posted by: TexasProud1 | December 10, 2009 4:07 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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