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Can Republicans take back the Senate?

The kerfuffle caused by White House press secretary Robert Gibbs' acknowledgment that there are enough seats in play to flip control of the House this fall has eclipsed another interesting political debate: Could Republicans win the Senate majority too?

The answer? Yes -- but it remains a significantly longer shot than the GOP taking over the House.

Senate Republicans need a net gain of 10 seats, which, if history is any guide, will be difficult. The last time one party made double digit seat gains was in 1980 when Republicans defeated nine incumbents and won three more Democratic open seats for a 12-seat pickup. (Thank you Ronald Reagan!)

Still, if the last few elections have taught us anything, it's that history isn't always determinative. (Thank you Barack Obama!)

So, here's a step-by-step guide on how Republicans could -- and we emphasize could -- get the 10 seats they need.

The first four pickups aren't that difficult to see. Republicans are heavy favorites in North Dakota and Delaware and have to be considered in the stronger position in Indiana and Arkansas.

Friday Line

And, the next handful of pickups aren't that tough to imagine either as polling shows Republicans running even (or close to even) in Illinois, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Nevada.

(That scenario is roughly where most prognosticators see the Senate playing out -- a Republican gain of five to seven seats. Of late, Stu Rothenberg, one of the most prominent political handicappers in the country, has been telling people he believes the Senate is in play, however.)

Grant all of those seats to Republicans and they are still two short of majority status, however. Which means they have to win two of these four states: California, Connecticut, Washington and Wisconsin.

Connecticut seems the longest shot of that quartet with a new poll out this morning showing state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal with a 17-point edge over former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon.

The other three seats are all competitive although in each the Democratic incumbent is very well funded and very well aware of the seriousness of the race -- two factors that make it tougher for Republicans.

(And, don't forget, that Republicans would also need to hold all of their competitive seats including open seat contests in swing states like Missouri and Ohio as well as Florida where if Gov. Charlie Crist wins he could well caucus with Democrats.)

The most likely outcome of the November election is that Republicans come close but a few seats short of the majority, positioning themselves for a 2012 cycle that should be very good to them.

But, a look at the Senate playing field as it stands today reveals that Republicans can make a credible case that the majority is in play this fall -- and that hasn't always been the case this cycle. It would require a table-running of historic proportions but in a political environment as volatile as this one, nothing is out of the question.

As always, the number one ranked on the Line is considered the most likely to switch. Have thoughts of your own on the Line? Offer them in the comment section below.

To the Line!

Coming onto the Line: Florida
Coming off the Line: Washington

10. Florida (Republican controlled): Whether this three-way race remains on the Line will depend on who wins the Aug. 24 Democratic primary between Rep. Kendrick Meek and billionaire investor Jeff Greene. A Greene victory would almost certainly allow Crist to co-opt large swaths of Democrats, which, when cobbled together with independents and some moderate Republicans, could be just enough to put him over the top against former state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R). If Meek wins the nomination, he is likely to enjoy enough support among traditional Democratic constituencies to keep Crist from getting over the top against Rubio. (Previous ranking: N/A)

9. Missouri (R): In the second quarter of this year, Rep. Roy Blunt's (R) raised $2.2 million compared to Secretary of State Robin Carnahan's (D) $1.6 million, leaving him with a $900,000 cash advantage over his opponent. (Worth noting: President Obama's Kansas City fundraiser last week, which took in $500,000 for Carnahan, was not included in the Democrat's haul.) The race remains tight, however, and Blunt will be hard pressed to shift the focus away from his years in Washington as a member of Republican leadership. (He has already taken to doing this distancing in his recent TV ads by focusing on his work as teacher!) (Previous ranking: 8)

8. Ohio (R): There's clearly a candidate quality mismatch in the Buckeye State. Former Rep. Rob Portman is one of Republicans' best candidates -- he is a fundraising and campaigning machine -- while Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher continues to perplex Democrats with his lackluster cash totals and staff turnover. Despite Fisher's problems, polling in the race shows it to be a nip and tuck affair and Portman's work as U.S. Trade Representative in the Bush Administration is not going to play well with Ohio voters. Portman's financial edge -- he had $8 million more on hand at the end of June -- should send shivers up the spines of Democratic strategists. (Previous ranking: 10)

7. Nevada (Democratic controlled): Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) still isn't all that well liked by Nevada voters but they appear to be willing to give him a second look following former state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle winning the Republican nomination last month. In a new Las Vegas Review Journal poll, Reid's unfavorable ratings dropped six points in just a month while Angle's rose by 18 points. Angle's massive fundraising quarter -- she outraised Reid! -- shows that the money will be there for her. But, she must have a better next month than she had a last month if she wants to keep this race in play for Republicans. (Previous ranking: 5)

6. Illinois (D): It's been a roller coaster ride in President Barack Obama's home state over the last few months. First, the failure of state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias' family bank had the Democratic nominee looking like damaged goods. Then GOP Rep. Mark Kirk admitted -- eventually -- to a series of misstatements about his military record. Capping off the whirlwind three months was a big fundraising victory for Kirk. He outraised Giannoulias $2.3 million to $900,000 in the second quarter. Both men have major flaws as candidates but Kirk's financial edge should be a cause of concern for national Democrats. (Previous ranking: 6)

5. Pennsylvania (D): A Quinnipiac poll released this week shows former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) and Rep. Joe Sestak (D) tied in the race to succeed Sen. Arlen Specter (D). But Toomey's second-quarter fundraising blew his opponent out of the water. Toomey raised $3.1 million and has $4.6 million in his campaign coffers. That's more than double Sestak's current warchest of about $2 million. (Sestak did spend heavily to beat Specter in the primary, however.) It's already turned nasty between the two campaigns. Sestak is urging TV stations to pull down a Chamber of Commerce ad that he argues misrepresents his voting record while Toomey has harshly criticized Sestak for the move. With Sestak yet to go up on TV after the hard-fought primary, the momentum right now appears to be with Toomey. (Previous ranking: 7)

4. Arkansas (D): Just when you thought Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) was dead politically, she survived a primary runoff with Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. She's the underdog again in the general election but the jury is still very much out on Rep. John Boozman's (R) campaign. Boozman easily won the primary thanks to a crowded field and a major geographic edge (he represents the most Republican district in the state), but beating an incumbent senator is another matter. He raised just $623,000 in the second quarter, which even in a cheap state in which to advertise is not good. Even after two very difficult races (the primary and the primary runoff), Lincoln begins the stretch run with a four-to-one cash-on-hand advantage over Boozman. Of course, given the state's ideological makeup and Lincoln's poor job approval numbers, Boozman still could well ride the Republican wave into office. (Previous ranking: 3)

3. Indiana (D): Former Sen. Dan Coats allayed some of Republicans' concerns about his candidacy with an impressive -- $1.6 million raised -- second quarter. Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) did far less well -- just $600,000 raised -- but does have a slight cash on hand edge over Coats who had to weather an early May primary fight. While President Obama won the Hoosier State in 2008, it has moved strongly against Democrats since then. Combine that with the likelihood that Ellsworth will be running with a national wind blowing in his face and it's tough to see the Democrat pulling out a win. (Previous ranking: 4)

2. Delaware (D): New Castle County Executive Chris Coons (D) was one of the best candidates we have met in the cycle so far. Reasonable, savvy and with just the sort of outsider message that could appeal to voters in an election like this one. The problem for Coons is that he is running against the well-liked and well-funded Rep. Mike Castle (R) who is, without question, the strongest candidate Republicans could have fielded. Coons has a bright future in politics but needs a break or two to pull off what would rightly be seen as a major upset this fall. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. North Dakota (D): Sen. John Hoeven (R). (Previous ranking: 1)

With Aaron Blake and Felicia Sonmez

By Chris Cillizza  |  July 16, 2010; 1:29 PM ET
Categories:  The Line  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Joe Manchin picks Carte Goodwin to replace Byrd
Next: Follow the Money: House/Senate fundraising charts

Comments

Republicans will return in larger numbers because the democrats in office have ruined so many things. McCain will stay with AZ, he is our best candidate by far. JD Hayworth does not represent the GOP well, he is too scandalous for us, we need to stick with secure and intelligent.

Posted by: antidonkey | July 20, 2010 1:35 AM | Report abuse

"I notice Drindl's been spamming the site with a cut-and-paste about some tea party guy who made some questionable remarks about "colored" people."

Even when I haven't been here for days or hours, you just can't get over your obsession.

Seriously, seek help.

Posted by: drindl | July 18, 2010 2:07 AM | Report abuse

Who, what, __?__ , where, and why? What's that word? Good grief, man!

And can the Republicans take back the Senate? Dunno, doubt it. Even if so, too late. A 24-year succession of too many caretaker Presidents plus this one unrestrained socialist. A watchdog media not on the job and now turned to advocacy, meaning zero grownups in the room. Stick a fork in us. The republic will take a hit for generations.

Posted by: chalkholder | July 17, 2010 10:44 PM | Report abuse

If the donkey party keeps up with the negative campaigning; turnout for their narrow little racially defined base will increase maybe 10% over the usual midterm - iow it will be unmeasurable. But they will piss off each and every indie that ALWAYS votes. Can't wait for November. House AND Senate turnover already guaranteed, because the only card left in the donkey party deck is the race card.

http://libertyatstake.blogspot.com/
[For a light hearted take on our present peril]

Posted by: libertyatstake | July 17, 2010 9:13 PM | Report abuse

If the donkey party keeps up with the negative campaigning; turnout for their narrow little racially defined base will increase maybe 10% over the usual midterm - iow it will be unmeasurable. But they will piss off each and every indie that ALWAYS votes. Can't wait for November. House AND Senate turnover already guaranteed, because the only card left in the donkey party deck is the race card.

http://libertyatstake.blogspot.com/
[For a light hearted take on our present peril]

Posted by: libertyatstake | July 17, 2010 9:12 PM | Report abuse

The Republicans are featured in a new movie...Dispicable Me! They are truly dispicable. They fought health care reform because they want an underclass to bash. They're blocking the unemployment extension and calling this paid-for insurance claim A HANDOUT TO THE LAZY. The Republican's new front group, the Tea Party openly derides blacks and questions Obama's citizenship. Take back the country? From whom? From those that voted for the most successful president since Franklin Roosevelt?

Posted by: Provasek | July 17, 2010 5:24 PM | Report abuse

The main problem republicans have is incosistency. Most o fthem are strong on talking and promises and next thing you know, somebody opens a check book to them and asks, how much should I write it for, I suport you. Sound good, HA? That is probably the last check written to them, because republican party is all over the news with some bad incident or public statement within their own party. The point is; every step republicans make forward is against Obama, but every stupidity that happens is ten steps backwards against their own party. Now they are calling for their own chairman resignation and prior to that, the only thing he did was bashing Obama on Afghanistan war, but they realised that he is actualy bashing Bush and Cheney and republican war. Which should make voters think twice; are they still going to have Bushism if republicans come to some fair position, where they can call some shots also.

Posted by: BOBSTERII | July 17, 2010 4:46 PM | Report abuse

I hate the way elections are talked about as though it is just a game. Does everyone realize, be they Democrats or Republican, that one party rule is essentially a dictatorship? For the sake of the country and at the expense if my own party, I hope the Republicans take both the house and Senate in November.

Democracy, tyranny of the majority.

Posted by: cakecup | July 17, 2010 4:38 PM | Report abuse

The Dems will hold on to the Senate like they always do. They will stuff the ballot boxes, have every dead person vote and intimidate Republicans away from voting.

Posted by: DL13 | July 17, 2010 2:54 PM | Report abuse

One note that I think that The Fix has overlooked is the US Senate race in Kentucky. Polls show that the race is tied and Attorney General Jack Conway has double the amount of money that Rand Paul has. On federal level it is hard to see a race in Kentucky does not trend Republican but on a state level Kentucky is trends Democratic. When the right Democrat gets in there he makes the race tight on a federal level. Clinton carried Kentucky during his presidential elections. Bunning and McConnell nearly lost in 04 in 08 with much underfunded candidates. The reason is that Democrats have about 10 percent more registered voters than Republicans. A good portion of those Democrats vote Republican since they are moderate conservatives allowing for Republicans to win on federal level. The controversial positions of Rand Paul are keeping those moderate Democrats in line with Jack Conway allowing him a good chance for victory. If Conway continues to lead the money race and with the help of President Clinton who should get involved in the race I would say that Conway is a slight favorite to win the seat.

Posted by: birkenja | July 17, 2010 2:29 PM | Report abuse

The baton was passed from one incompetent president to another. The party claiming to be fiscally conservative started a stupid war which they did not pay for. They also cut taxes of the super wealthy without cutting any spending. Surprise, the deficit mushroomed. Seeing this incompetence, the Democrats opened a second front to the war, passed costly legislation and printed even more money out of thin air. Now the deficit is so large it can't even be counted and we only worry about the interest payments. I pray that the Republicans win the house so that nothing can get done because of the presidents veto. With both these incompetents negating each other, the American people may once again have a fighting chance.

Posted by: gvelanis | July 17, 2010 1:51 PM | Report abuse

A negro president is building concentration camps for white people and the stupid WaPoo does'nt see the republican landslide coming. Typical liberal scum. Tune into Glen Beck some time and see the future of America.

Posted by: SavedGirl | July 17, 2010 1:14 PM | Report abuse

Pardon my contempt for the Republican Party of NO.

They do have the perfect answer to almost every problem - do NOTHING. It's inexpensive, won't raise taxes, and does just what it says. It's the perfect platform for 1955 but....WHOOPS! This is 2010.

We've already seen a sample of what happens to our banking, housing and health insurance industries when REPUBLICANS ALLOWED THEM TO DO JUST ABOUT WHATEVER THEY PLEASED - a triumph of the "DO NOTHING" approach. I think the majority of voters have had quite enough of this Republican charade. The Dems have made plenty of errors but at least have TRIED to do something.

There is one area where the Repubs seem to NOT want to do nothing - WAR. Suddenly no preposterous "mission" is too far fetched nor TOO STUPID, to win Republican support to "protect" us against non-existent terrorists who are actually in some nearby "friendly" country.

And what about the COSTS OF WAR - PERHAPS REQUIRING A RAISE IN TAXES? Suddenly the Repubs are just fine with that cuz it's for our "national defense".

A more consistent hypocrisy could not be found if one wanted to.

Understand the Republican platform and key idea - there's NOTHING to it!!

Posted by: James_Pannozzi | July 17, 2010 12:27 PM | Report abuse

As long as Connecticut is on your radar don't forget about Gillibrand. Ras has her below 50. GOP needs 10 out of 13 if you throw that race in the mix.

Posted by: Truthteller12 | July 17, 2010 12:20 PM | Report abuse

It will be a good thing for the Republicans to take at least 1 house of Congress but even better if both could turn Republican and stop this assault on America’s economy and the ensuing unemployed. It's amazing to me the all Democrats seems to be intellectually inept small thinkers, they can only blame “Bush” for all ills and praise their on a pedestal “demigod” BO who for 18 months has done nothing for the economy or create jobs, just run the DEFICIT up more than all the Presidents before him put together. As for people in need, PRIVATE SECTOR JOBS are what we need, not Government jobs or Federal handouts. Even those out of work who have any knowledge what so ever know this! Yes, those with fewer skills and lesser knowledge have to wait for the economy to start churning and jobs to be created. The Policies being followed for the last 18 months will not start to do this. The money won’t last forever if the Treasury is depleted because no one is working just getting handouts, and much of the bloated Bureaucracy in the Federal Government just amounts to handouts. Are you people that stupid? The Republicans are saying NO to more and more DEFICIT spending while the BO Democrats are saying SPEND, SPEND, SPEND. I can believe that the Liberal Left are that stupid, they just represent radicals anyway, but the main stream Democrats should still be capable of thinking and seeing the fallacy in their Party’s policies. Just look at the Democrats in Congress that are starting to get fed up with this idiot in the White House.

Posted by: lfraz43 | July 17, 2010 9:21 AM | Report abuse

The libs have once again ruined my morning coffee with their daily spew.

Liberalism is a disease!

That sucking sound is leichtman1 and drindls head disengaging from zero's azz to post their daily liberal pukespew.

Posted by: steelers01 | July 17, 2010 8:57 AM | Report abuse

The national democratic party leaders are arrogant bastards. South Carolina's party leaders are not that far behind. Imagine, not campaigning against an alleged child sexual predator!!! And then, to claim voter fraud, republican setup, etc., shows that these anal orifices share a stupidity that is too commonly seen in politics.

Next, we have an incumbent laughing at the narcissistic democrats.

And, lets not forget the socialist. Oops. I'm sorry. I meant to say 'progressive'. That's right, progressive as in 'Union of Soviet Progressive Republics'. As in Russia, The Soviet Union, communism, etc., except USSR does not have a 'C'.

To sum it up:
South Carolina candidates:

1. incumbent
2. sexual predator (alleged for the innocent til proven guilty crowd)
3. socialist

I have always voted for the individual, and will continue to do so. Are there any brave souls that wish to guess who I'll vote for in November? I'm Puerto Rican. Does that help?

See you in November!!

Posted by: yauco2 | July 17, 2010 4:42 AM | Report abuse

Take back? They already have partial if not most control of the Senate with their unified front and filibuster power, as does whichever party's in the minority at the time, if they band together. In recent years, only the Republicans have successfully discovered the power called "minority rules." This is why the filibuster rule must go, it was not what the Founding Fathers envisioned. At the very least, the threshold should be cut to 55. As it is, most voters don't understand why nothing gets done - or "it" gets watered down - when their party is in power, which eventually puts the other party in power before long, where this process repeats itself.

Posted by: abcs86 | July 17, 2010 1:44 AM | Report abuse

Don't count out NY. Obama's people forced out every credible Democratic candidate in favor of our appointed DINO junior senator.
The only thing that MAY save her is the Republican failure to field a strong candidate, but MAY is the operative word.

Posted by: miriamac2001 | July 17, 2010 12:32 AM | Report abuse

Citi_street wrote,
"Senate leader Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi were supposed to be the most vulnerable politicians in America in 2010. Both are leading by wide margins in the polls against their opponents so I rest my case."

----

I've not heard one single person ever suggest that Nancy Pelosi would not be re-elected.
You must have heard that in the same dream where you saw a poll that had Reid leading by a wide margin.

Posted by: Brigade | July 17, 2010 12:02 AM | Report abuse

Senate leader Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi were supposed to be the most vulnerable politicians in America in 2010. Both are leading by wide margins in the polls against their opponents so I rest my case.

Go figure right wing-nuts and riddle me this?

If right wing-nut tea party idiots can’t beat Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi or for that matter Governor Charlie Crist who they threw out of their party because he was deemed too moderate, then why do you think you have any chance of winning back the Senate in November?

Posted by: Citi__Street | July 16, 2010 11:45 PM | Report abuse

Karl Rove can fix the voting machines again and the Supreme Court can put a Republican in office.

Posted by: qqbDEyZW | July 16, 2010 10:26 PM
---

Rove doesn't have to fix anything as long as Dems are too stupid to figure out how to use a voting machine and think Gore is spelled B-U-C-H-A-N-A-N.

And the Supreme Court only intervenes if multiple recounts have the same guy with the most votes and a renegade state court is trying to steal the election for the guy with the fewer votes. Idiot.

Posted by: Brigade | July 16, 2010 11:20 PM | Report abuse

Oh, it only! Thanks, Chris! I can sleep tonight. We're going to do it! We're going to retake the country!

Posted by: georges2 | July 16, 2010 10:27 PM | Report abuse

Karl Rove can fix the voting machines again and the Supreme Court can put a Republican in office. DeMint used a patsy to win his seat by default as the Dem. candidate will go to jail on a felony charge. Britney Cantor is using the old trick of fake job fair for votes. Rand Paul has moved on from the Senate seat to the 2012 Presidential race.

Posted by: qqbDEyZW | July 16, 2010 10:26 PM | Report abuse

Rand Paul still has a 7 point lead in Kentucky and he hasn't even really started campaigning. Kentucky is like California it always votes for 1 party .

Posted by: zcxnissan | July 16, 2010 9:45 PM | Report abuse

They said it would be an outside chance for Democrats to pick up the Senate in 2006 but they did, and that was in a friendlier environment for Democrats, pretty much Republicans are going to win the House, it's anybody's guess as to who will control the Senate the race in Wisconsin is close now, Feingold actually trails his Republican opponent by 1% in latest polling now. States that really shouldn't be close for Democrats are now, California isn't even a sure thing now.

Posted by: zcxnissan | July 16, 2010 9:41 PM | Report abuse

ieasygoing wrote,

(eliminated some of the blather)

"the greedy old neo con ex hippies turned nazis that hey are."

The greedy old neo con ex hippies turned nazis. Right.

"Where is Phil the former senator from Tex the man who made the rip off legal by repealing the only law that protected Americans?"

You mean the law referenced in this March 2008 story?

"Repeal of The Glass Steagall Act Has Produced The Highly Leveraged Investment Imbroglio That Is Just Now Starting To Unwind

The CFR, through its agents, primarily Sanford Weill, Bill Clinton and Robert Rubin repealed the Glass Steagall Act.

The repeal was the foundation, that is the keystone, that provided for non transparent financial manipulation and use of leverage to revolutionize the activities of investment beginning in 1999, to amass huge fortunes for the investment bankers who designed, marketed and oversaw the use of leveraged investments, and to generate awesomely speculative endeavors at hedge funds, which have gone unregulated by government oversight."

That law? The one repealed by the
Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999?

leichtman1 blames this on Republicans and says Clinton should have vetoed it. He usually doesn't mention that the bill passed 90-8 in the Senate and 362-57 in the House. And of course Clinton DID sign it into law. Didn't he?

Clinton and Bush are out of the picture now. What should we do with those Democrats who voted for this bill and are still in office? Vote them out?

What about the dozen or so Democrats who voted for the Bush tax cuts everyone's been whining about? Or the dozen Democrats who voted for the unfunded Medicare drug benefit? Or the 30 who voted to authorize the invasion of Iraq?
That Bush was some kind of bi-partisan wasn't he? And Obama has a hard time picking up a single Republican vote. Should we get rid of all those Dems who voted with Gramm and Bush?


Posted by: Brigade | July 16, 2010 9:22 PM | Report abuse

This fellows dreaming if he believes the Republicans will take over either the House of the Senate come November. Large number of American people appear to be waking up to the fact that almost all our problems have been caused by Republican policies. Today, in Kentucky, there were protests against Mitch McConnell for failing to support an extension of unemployment benefits to those whose benefits have run out. And, these protesters were ordinary Americans who have finally realized the great truth. The Republican party is by the wealthy, for the wealthy, and of the wealthy. Everyone one else is ignored by these rich, fat cats and their arrogance. Come November, it's time to get rid of these right wing morons once and for all.

Posted by: Caliguy55 | July 16, 2010 9:07 PM | Report abuse

This fellows dreaming if he believes the Republicans will take over either the House of the Senate come November. Large number of American people appear to be waking up to the fact that almost all our problems have been caused by Republican policies. Today, in Kentucky, there were protests against Mitch McConnell for failing to support an extension of unemployment benefits to those whose benefits have run out. And, these protesters were ordinary Americans who have finally realized the great truth. The Republican party is by the wealthy, for the wealthy, and of the wealthy. Everyone one else is ignored by these rich, fat cats and their arrogance. Come November, it's time to get rid of these right wing morons once and for all.

Posted by: Caliguy55 | July 16, 2010 9:07 PM | Report abuse

Chris - Keep your eye on Oregon. Merkley and Wyden are both disliked. Wyden can't get above 50% in the polls and his out-of-state and **foreign** campaign financing is about to become a major issue. Right now, I would give him odds of about 50-50, but only because Dudley, an honest and decent man and a moderate, isn't well know. Wyden is getting tied to Merkley and the Brady Foundation and out west that is poison.

Posted by: mibrooks27 | July 16, 2010 9:06 PM | Report abuse

With 40% of the American people not knowing that America fought a revolutionary war with England and with 60% not knowing that the economic policy of the republican party is taken right out the Fascist business model of the 1930s with the modern twist of political correctness applied to nazi thinking. With the vast majority of republicans about to get FOOLED again sipping the tea of deceit and wanting to return to tinkle down economics and more extended welfare for the wealthy as they despise anything having to do with Union or democracy we could end up like a nation of horses running back into a burning barn, a barn set ablaze by republican greed on the far right of the party that has a choke hold on almost all in office who cower in fear of the wrath of the man mad Rush the Reich Marshall. Now numb to war without cost with a failing economy that the republicans seek to bring down as the only way to get Obama out is to trash America the confederates just might fool America again and this next time if they get back in power they will steal everything else and leave us the 4th world nation while they run off to their Dubi Bank accounts, the greedy old neo con ex hippies turned nazis that hey are. Where is Phil the former senator from Tex the man who made the rip off legal by repealing the only law that protected Americans? Sitting in a Swiss Bank. Americans need to wake up and smell the coffee but it seems like the tea of deceit hate and fear and racism are taking its toll in a nation that has one of the worst educated populations in the industrialized world. With no concept of history it seems that we might be doomed to repeat it, as the greatest generation fades and the greediest generation has given birth to generations that have no concept of history and no idea how we got in this mess, a mess made by right wing greed and allowed by left wing ignorance.

Posted by: iseasygoing | July 16, 2010 8:55 PM | Report abuse

TheBabeNemo wrote,
'the stimulus "looks like" it's not working.'

---

I'll second that.

Posted by: Brigade | July 16, 2010 8:54 PM | Report abuse

Gotta love free enterprise.


Posted by: TheBabeNemo | July 16, 2010 8:51 PM | Report abuse

no way Brigade
Public Laws
111-81
111-148
111-192
111-152

are great. Not just HCR and FINREG. And then, the banks didn't follow the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, so the stimulus "looks like" it's not working.

Lots of good public laws have come down the pike.

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | July 16, 2010 8:48 PM | Report abuse

The population of greater Seattle would sooner collectively walk out of their houses and take a stinking dump on their next door neighbor's lawn than pull that Rossi lever in November, and in their hearts I think serious students of politics (GOP or Dem) know it.

Posted by: mattfugazi | July 16, 2010 3:38 PM
---

I don't think this activity has anything to do with politics. The Northwest is somewhat backward, and many there lack indoor plumbing. :)

Posted by: Brigade | July 16, 2010 8:47 PM | Report abuse

But not all states are nations.

The Tribes have that covered.

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | July 16, 2010 8:43 PM | Report abuse

leichtman1 wrote,
"Brigade you are mixing apples and oranges."

---

I do that a lot, but at least it gives us something to argue about.

Posted by: Brigade | July 16, 2010 8:42 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: leapin | July 16, 2010 6:08 PM

"If you haven't noticed the Obamao (sic) is very cozy with big business."

================================

I suppose very soon, you will be saying again that Obama is a Socialist.

Pick one, you can't have it both ways.

Posted by: vigor | July 16, 2010 8:39 PM | Report abuse

If the stock market is any indication about where the economy is headed in 3 to six months, the Dems. are in deep doo doo. Make that 12 senate seats changing hands and the Tea Party Caucus becomes more powerful than the Black Caucus.

Posted by: kenpasadena | July 16, 2010 8:26 PM
---

The HCR bill and the FINREG bill are the centerpieces of Obama's presidency after the stimulus. They are huge monstrosities of which Nancy Pelosi and Chris Dodd, respectively, said (in so many words) we'll find out what they do after they become law.

Details and implementation will be handled by government bureaucrats of various departments who are being lobbied as we speak. Until the business community sees what all of this is going to do to the bottom line, they're going to sit tight---no investments, no expansion, no hiring--- and the unemployment rate will remain high.

I think Obama made a tactical error by jumping into these reforms with both feet before the economy had picked up. Maybe he can blame it on Reid and Pelosi. I can offer no explanation as to why he has become a neo-con in Middle East policy.

Posted by: Brigade | July 16, 2010 8:39 PM | Report abuse

cms:
great post.
Press Secretaries split every 2 years anyway, new ones come in.
Like speech writers.

////
CNN - they kept the billowing oil pipe in a bottom screen for everyone to look at every minute of every broadcast.
It was a big sicky. Changing the mood of the viewer. Good to see that stop.

Anderson is in Haiti with Sanjay. See how the food is not getting out in time. But Anderson is supposed to be in Louisiana keeping them honest.

The press.....thank god for PR classes in college. It doesn't matter what Gibbs said.


Posted by: TheBabeNemo | July 16, 2010 8:37 PM | Report abuse

Brigade you are mixing apples and oranges. The story you report is of the D Governor's
Association actually spending money to effect a primary vote(advertising); who cares.
The Texas story is about $200,00 actually GIVEN to the Green Party by an Ex Perry Aid from his Corp. Account. It is illegal for corporations to make direct contributions to political parties in Texas, period.
As to fund raising, Perry is now lagging Bill White by 1/2 million dollars and White has raised $17 million, so Sabato's generality about fund raising disparity has absolutely no bearing here. Good try though to rationalize these clearly illegal GOP activities in Texas.

Posted by: leichtman1 | July 16, 2010 8:35 PM | Report abuse

If the stock market is any indication about where the economy is headed in 3 to six months, the Dems. are in deep doo doo. Make that 12 senate seats changing hands and the Tea Party Caucus becomes more powerful than the Black Caucus.

Posted by: kenpasadena | July 16, 2010 8:26 PM | Report abuse

This supposed "kerfuffle" about what Gibbs said is only meaningful to those who live within the beltway of Washington D.C.
This is summer and the reporters MUST have something to try and draw attention to their articles or, they are toast with their respective media outlets.
This whole thing means absolutely nothing whatsoever anytime ever.
Just something to talk about, because, actually, there is SO little to talk about and reporters and news people are continually under the gun to "produce" something that will draw in advertisers, well, you get the picture.
Not to blame them, of course, creating something sensational is their JOB.
It's up to the reader to determine whether or not anything reported is worthwhile, true, meaningful, timely, or anything else.
Reporters follow the direction of their editors and bosses and their job is to make money. Period.
Take everything with a grain of salt and pretend you are living in the 19th century when penny-novels were accepted as truth.
The more things change the more they stay the same.

Posted by: cms1 | July 16, 2010 8:06 PM | Report abuse

"Any and ALL Republicans that vote for Cap and Trade Bill WILL BE VOTED OUT OF OFFICE IN NOVEMBER! DONE DEAL!!! posted by: prossers7"

So any Republican who votes for cap and trade will lose.

To Whom?

Or do you mean that any Republican will face a T-Crazy and therefore lose to the democrat by default?

I like the thought of voting Republicans out of office, so tell me how you intend to do it.

Posted by: ceflynline | July 16, 2010 7:55 PM | Report abuse

I noticed in one of the threads that leichtman1 was up in arms because Republicans had spent $200,000 to get the Green Party on the ballot in Texas. Pikers! Chump change!

This from a column by Thomas Beaumont:

"The national organization for Democratic governor campaigns paid for the advertisements and mailers that attacked Republican Terry Branstad as a 'liberal' in the weeks leading up to the June primary, a federal disclosure report filed Thursday shows.

"The ads and mailers by a group called Iowans for Responsible Government linked Branstad with leading Democratic figures Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Bill Clinton. They were financed entirely by contributions totally $782,500 by the Democratic Governors Association.

"Viewers of the ads would have every reason to think the ads were placed by conservatives. However, the ads and mailers were the work of Democrats. The coordinator for Iowans for Reponsible Government was Des Moines lawyer Rob Tully, former chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party. But Tully declined before the primary to disclose who was financing the group. As a tax-exempt organization, Iowans for Responsible Government was required to file its financial disclosure report with the Internal Revenue Service on Thursday.

"... The direct mail pieces showed Branstad's face with Obama's, Pelosi's and Clinton's on a mock Mount Rushmore. 'Liberal Terry Branstad would make Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and Nancy Pelosi proud," it read.

"... Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said the Democratic Governors Association's role in the Republican primary reflects desperation.

"'Not only are they way behind the Republicans in fundraising, they are going to get walloped in races this November,' Sabato said.

"The Democratic Governors Association raised $9.1 million in the second quarter of the year, compared with $19 million for its GOP counterpart, the Republican Governors Association. At the end of June, the Republican group had $40 million on hand, compared with $22 million for the Democratic group."

---

Wow! Almost $800,000 to support a conservative Republican who lost to Branstad in the primary. Now that Branstad's running against Democratic incumbent Chet Culver, I wonder how much money Democrats will spend telling voters how proud Obama, Pelosi and Clinton will be to see Branstad as governor of Iowa? I guess Republicans and Democrats should all unite behind Branstad. Yes? No? Maybe?

Posted by: Brigade | July 16, 2010 7:46 PM | Report abuse


Republicans will not re-take the Senate or the Congress if they do this:

Good news for Dems: Republican to push ahead with energy bill:

Any and ALL Republicans that vote for Cap and Trade Bill WILL BE VOTED OUT OF OFFICE IN NOVEMBER! DONE DEAL!!!

Posted by: prossers7 | July 16, 2010 7:40 PM | Report abuse

@leapin:He means libs would be able to lie about it. Like you do about Paul Ryan.

Boehner means that he can't defend his own party's principles (deregulate business, tax cuts for the rich, maybe start a war with Iran, who knows since he won't say) when put into concrete policy proposals and expect any Republicans to get elected because the American people don't buy what he is selling.

I am worried about media distortion of the nonexistent republican policy initiatives because the repubs don't have their own network exclusively engaged in pushing the republican agenda and slamming Obama and the dems every time they sneeze and that the 95% of cable and over the air broadcasts are not controlled by six megacorporations, whose management is firmly in the republicans pockets...oh wait....

And who exactly is lying about Paul Ryan's blueprint? Republicans (beyond Sharron "obtuse" Angle and Rand "private companies should be able to discriminate") Paul won't touch his plan for gutting social security and medicare while cutting taxes on the rich and raising them on everyone else with a 10 ft pole. I mean he is the ranking member on the budget committee, after all and his colleagues treat him like a leper.

Posted by: srw3 | July 16, 2010 7:20 PM | Report abuse

And if we can get Cillizza to start paying attention to his own blog, I have no doubt that you will be gone again soon.

Get a life you nutbag, you're pathetic

Posted by: DrainYou | July 16, 2010 3:17 PM
----

Hey Noacoler, can your parrots talk? I have a difficult time telling one bird brain from another. What would you give for a scissorbill that can type as well as talk? Its name is DrainYou. Of course, if a ban is actually put in place, it may not be posting here for long.

Posted by: Brigade | July 16, 2010 7:20 PM | Report abuse

The infrastructure was rebuilt during the stimulus. Did you miss it?

Posted by: leapin
---
You know zero about infrastructure, for the past ten years the Army Corps of Engineers has graded our critical infrastructure at a "D", sometimes "D-" and the only reason they didn't give it an "F" is because..well..they just didn't want to. It will take trillions to repair and upgrade our dams, roads, airports, electronic grid and so on..you know, the very things that allow commerce and our economy to function.

Private and Government neglect has left us in a very bad situation when it comes to our nation's infrastructure and only a small amount from the stimulus was allotted for it.

Why?, because conservatives wouldn't let it happen.

Posted by: JRM2 | July 16, 2010 7:20 PM | Report abuse

I notice Drindl's been spamming the site with a cut-and-paste about some tea party guy who made some questionable remarks about "colored" people. Then someone else picked it up and started running with it. I guess the moral is that everyone should support Obama in order to prove that they're not racist like the guy in question.

I missed Drindl's posts about the NAACP remarks and especially those from the New Black Panthers, ostensibly Obama supporters, who were caught not only intimidating voters but calling for the killing of "cracker babies." I did hear about it elsewhere. I guess the moral there is that all non-bigots should oppose Obama in order to prove that they aren't ignorant bigots like the Panthers.

Decisions. Decisions. A post-racial administration.

Posted by: Brigade | July 16, 2010 7:13 PM | Report abuse

I notice Drindl's been spamming the site with a cut-and-paste about some tea party guy who made some questionable remarks about "colored" people. Then someone else picked it up and started running with it. I guess the moral is that everyone should support Obama in order to prove that they're not racist like the guy in question.

I missed Drindl's posts about the NAACP remarks and especially those from the New Black Panthers, ostensibly Obama supporters, who were caught not only intimidating voters but calling for the killing of "cracker babies." I did hear about it elsewhere. I guess the moral there is that all non-bigots should oppose Obama in order to prove that they aren't ignorant bigots like the Panthers.

Decisions. Decisions. A post-racial administration.

Posted by: Brigade | July 16, 2010 7:12 PM | Report abuse

"Can Republicans take back the Senate?"
__________________

This blog knows full well that no one at ground zero who's knowledgeable about the Senate races answers "yes." No one.

Senate and House control will be retained, and in 2012 BHO will win reelection unless his opposition can find someone to answer Congresswoman Lynn Jenkins' famous call for a "Great White Hope" to defeat our President.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | July 16, 2010 7:09 PM | Report abuse

I hate to state the obvious, but all states [nations] are statist. That's what makes them states.

Posted by: drindl | July 16, 2010 6:53 PM | Report abuse

"And if we can get Cillizza to start paying attention to his own blog, I have no doubt that you will be gone again soon. Get a life you nutbag, you're pathetic Posted by: DrainYou"

No, all we need is the ability to block posters to our own streams, especially if, when we block 37 again 37 gets the notice that so and so has blocked him, again.

He has access to the blog, just nom access to any posters who aren't as out of it as he is.

Quid erat simplicior?

Posted by: ceflynline | July 16, 2010 6:45 PM | Report abuse

Americans don't want to be serfs.

Posted by: Noacoler
----------------------------------
True. They prefer to be NeoCom Statists deferring to the Dear Leader, who is for the time being, only limited by his physical body. Chant, with your fellow statists, YES WE CAN!!!!

Posted by: leapin | July 16, 2010 6:18 PM | Report abuse

"The most likely outcome of the November election is that Republicans come close but a few seats short of the majority, positioning themselves for a 2012 cycle that should be very good to them."

Now let's see what happens when forty-four Republicans bring business in the Senate to a halt. There being so many things the American people want accomplished that two more years of NO! will alienate just about every voter not in the die hard 15% that is the T-Party. AND, they vote to take it out on the T-party, which is all that is left of the republican party by then, the T-Crazies having declared anyone not certifiably insane RINO and skinned them.

The BEST the R's can do is lose two seats and therefore run on going back to having a filibuster enforcing minority available in 2013.

This just isn't a true Republican resurgence year.

And in 2012, twenty-three democrats come up for reelection or5 replacement, so if the Republicans are to have ANY hope of recovering they can't afford to totally alienate the electorate by filibuster, and McConnell will insist on filibustering everything if the republicans gain more than a couple seats in the Senate this year.

Posted by: ceflynline | July 16, 2010 6:11 PM | Report abuse

Republicans can't open their mouths without lying.

And they definitely don't want to talk about how they will basically hand goverment over to K Street if they get control.

the first thing they want to do is deregulated the financial industry so thhey can screw America all over again.

Anyone who votes for these creeps is just plain hopelessly stupid.

Posted by: drindl
-------------------------------------------
If you haven't noticed the Obamao is very cozy with big business. GE, however, is getting very po'd.

Posted by: leapin | July 16, 2010 6:08 PM | Report abuse

Chris, are you basically innumerate?

There are just 16 Democratic seats u[p for election this year.

To gain control of the Senate the republicans need, not ten, but eleven pick-ups because in case of ties Biden votes. The Republicans are hell bent on losing Florida, and Crist won't caucus with the R's. They need twelve pickups. New Hampshire and Ohio are going Democratic. That means they need fourteen pickups. And Boxer and Reid have T-Crazies as opponents. You just ran out of seats to change hands. More realistically Inouye. Mikulski, Wyden, Leahy, and Schumer aren't in danger. so there are only eleven seats even available, and they are going to need at least twelve pick-ups.

I hate to shoot down your Republican resurgence template, but it can't be cut to fit no matter how sharp your scissors.

The real question is, can the democrats pick up enough seats from the republicans to have a veto proof majority.

I think the Dems end up with sixty-two to sixty-four seats.

Posted by: ceflynline | July 16, 2010 5:59 PM | Report abuse

Republicans can't open their mouths without lying.

And they definitely don't want to talk about how they will basically hand goverment over to K Street if they get control.

the first thing they want to do is deregulated the financial industry so thhey can screw America all over again.

Anyone who votes for these creeps is just plain hopelessly stupid.

Posted by: drindl | July 16, 2010 5:52 PM | Report abuse

Uh, leapin ol' bean, nobody needs to lie about a Republican agenda to make it look bad. There's a damned good reason that McDonnell and Christie lied about what they would do in office, and damned good reasons that Angle and Paul have been muzzled, and absoltuely solid reasons that the real Republican agenda needs to be concealed.

As 37th would say, "it is very simple."

Americans don't want to be serfs.

Posted by: Noacoler | July 16, 2010 5:51 PM | Report abuse

"I've often marveled at how people like Stuart Rothenberg have managed to make a living as some sort of "expert" election predicter in a world where 98 percent of incumbents get reelected. I mean, really - how difficult can predictions be when all you have to do is say "the incumbent is going to win" in order to be 98% accurate? But as Matt Stoller shows, Rothenberg is more than just a spewer of the obvious - he's a fairly nasty right-winger, lacing his oh-so-astute "analysis" with all sorts of stereotypes that have no basis in reality. The question is: when will the media stop calling him "nonpartisan" and start labeling him as a conservative?"

Posted by: drindl | July 16, 2010 5:47 PM | Report abuse

In a year like this - national issues are going to predominate like a tidal wave across the nation.

Clearly - in that situation, a traditional swing state like Wisconsin is going to go Republican.

More traditional blue states will show more resistance - like California and Connecticut.

The background of the State still matters.


.

Posted by: YouCanPostThis | July 16, 2010 5:42 PM | Report abuse

But Rep. Peter King (R-NY) was perhaps a little too honest yesterday, explaining to radio host Bill Bennett that Republicans shouldn’t “lay out a complete agenda,” because then people would be able to scrutinize it and make it “a campaign issue”:


Posted by: drindl
-------------------------------------------
He means libs would be able to lie about it. Like you do about Paul Ryan. You're back to cut and paste I see.

Posted by: leapin | July 16, 2010 5:42 PM | Report abuse

But Rep. Peter King (R-NY) was perhaps a little too honest yesterday, explaining to radio host Bill Bennett that Republicans shouldn’t “lay out a complete agenda,” because then people would be able to scrutinize it and make it “a campaign issue”:


Posted by: drindl
-------------------------------------------
He means lins would be able to lie about it. Like you do about Paul Ryan. You're back to cut and paste I see.

Posted by: leapin | July 16, 2010 5:42 PM | Report abuse

It's past time to get busy rebuilding our Infra-structure and bringing jobs and Corporate Headquarters back to our shores so the Robber Barons can start to pay their FAIR share of taxes and let the rest of America get back to the work at hand.

Posted by: billnbillieskid |
-----------------------------------------
The infrastructure was rebuilt during the stimulus. Did you miss it?

Posted by: leapin | July 16, 2010 5:38 PM | Report abuse

This is how bizarre american politics has gotten. Republicans don't want to tell you what they would do in office, because it might become a 'campaign issue.' LOL.

"For the past year, Republicans have been desperately trying to show Americans that they have substantive policy ideas, and that they are not just “the party of no” that reflexively opposes anything President Obama supports in order to score cheap political points. “House Republicans have engaged with the American people to develop innovative solutions that meet the serious challenges facing our country,” House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA) declared on the flimsy “GOP Solutions” website.

But Rep. Peter King (R-NY) was perhaps a little too honest yesterday, explaining to radio host Bill Bennett that Republicans shouldn’t “lay out a complete agenda,” because then people would be able to scrutinize it and make it “a campaign issue”:

Posted by: drindl | July 16, 2010 5:37 PM | Report abuse

Uh, Mark, I presumed he knew that. Replacing a Republican with a Republican isn't a gain, so I saw no point there to respond to. My remark about Rasmussen stands; most polls show the race closer than that, and it is not inconceivable that the TP choice of a radical like Rand Paul has put that race into play/

Posted by: Noacoler | July 16, 2010 5:36 PM | Report abuse

What about KY where Rasmussen has shown Paul to lead by 7 points for the last month?

Posted by: jnsphorn | July 16, 2010 5:04 PM
==========
KY is now represented by Jim Bunning [R].
Rand Paul is leading. He is of the same persuasion as Jim Bunning [R]. That is why KY is not on a list of potential R gains.

I believe Noacoler missed your point while responding to you, because he wanted to make one of his own. I have attempted a direct reply to your question. Have a nice day.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | July 16, 2010 5:30 PM | Report abuse

If the regressives take back a majority in either the House or Senate, then we deserve the Havoc that will ensue. Are we DEAF? DUMB? and BLIND to what the bushniks and cheneyites did to us for eight,long, murderous UNPRODUCTIVE years of Imperial rule? President Obama has turned himself into a contortionist bending over backward to extend a hand and get Republicans to work with him on dire issues that demands, as well as needs, input from ALL elected officials. All he gets from them is NO, NO, and NO! They would rather see him fail and for us to go down with him, than for our Country to recover our Moral and, once envied, Political power on the World stage. A POX on the regressive Republican Party of Naysayers and all who fall for their gloom, doom and fear tactics. We are AMERICANS and WILL succeed where the "shrub" (Thank-you, Mollie Ivins)& Co. failed. They brought us to our knees but we are back on our feet and will be sprinting come November. Look out "Tea Partiers", WE WILL take our Country back from you "Me firsters" and "I'm up, pull up the ropers". No more of your racist claptrap and "one issue" blocking of meaningful legislation. It's past time to get busy rebuilding our Infra-structure and bringing jobs and Corporate Headquarters back to our shores so the Robber Barons can start to pay their FAIR share of taxes and let the rest of America get back to the work at hand.

Posted by: billnbillieskid | July 16, 2010 5:26 PM | Report abuse

To anyone asking about Kentucky: It's a Republican seat that is NOT considered up for grabs, hence it was not included in the list of Republican takeovers in the U.S. Senate.

Posted by: cags777 | July 16, 2010 5:24 PM | Report abuse

....."If he had made a serious sustained effort to compromise with the Republicans - not because he had the votes - but because that IS WHAT OBAMA PROMISED TO DO IN EVERY CAMPAIGN STOP OVER TWO YEARS - A PROMISE HE MADE TO THE NATION...."

--he has done that. One example is how he visits the House and Senate--even the press gaggle in the morning, he'll show up unannounced. The Health Summit he had. Remember when McCain gave him all that trouble. He invites all House Reps and Senators to the White House all the time. He's bipartisan and listens to them all. Even over cocktails. His White House is very open. It's the party of NO that doesn't like the brother from Chicago.
They simply hate that he is African American.

...."If Obama had restrained himself and his other democrats with the false charges of racism....."
----and what were those charges? Where did he say anything like a racist comment? Give me a link.

...."If Obama had signed a release - opening up the file in Hawaii - showing transparency...."
--Hawaii made a statement on this issue. The old birth certificate issue I imagine you are referring to. He was born there. Just like babies born to undocumenteds down here in bum *&^%$ egypt are citizens too. Probably soon to change however.

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | July 16, 2010 5:24 PM | Report abuse

Hey jnsphorn, we don't take Rasmussen seriously around here, neither should you. THey're not in the accuracy business, they're in the buzz business, like this blog.

Posted by: Noacoler | July 16, 2010 5:19 PM | Report abuse

paul65


If Obama had adhered to his campaign pledges


If he had made a serious sustained effort to compromise with the Republicans - not because he had the votes - but because that IS WHAT OBAMA PROMISED TO DO IN EVERY CAMPAIGN STOP OVER TWO YEARS - A PROMISE HE MADE TO THE NATION.


If Obama had restrained himself and his other democrats with the false charges of racism


If Obama had signed a release - opening up the file in Hawaii - showing transparency.

then maybe you would have a case that Obama should not be impeached.

But Obama does deserve to be impeached.


Case closed.

.

Posted by: YouCanPostThis | July 16, 2010 5:14 PM | Report abuse


and why would they impeach the President?

He did not have sexual relations with that woman.

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | July 16, 2010 5:14 PM | Report abuse

What about KY where Rasmussen has shown Paul to lead by 7 points for the last month?

Posted by: jnsphorn | July 16, 2010 5:04 PM | Report abuse

Republicans WILL impeach America's first black president if they take back the House in November.

TRUTH.

Posted by: paul65 | July 16, 2010 4:49 PM | Report abuse

Marco Rubio in particular is a monumental unforced error. The race should have been Crist v Meek- a guaranteed GOP hold.

Posted by: mattfugazi | July 16, 2010 4:38 PM | Report abuse

I see seven turn overs in the top 7 here. I wonder why Feingold and Boxer are not on this list. they are running behind. It is perfectly within the realm of good possibilities that all ten required seats go R and the house flips too.

I don't see Obama changing the direction of his slide anytime soon.

the only uncertainty is some sort of October surprise. Our enemies would not like having the weakest present ident ever to lose control of his government to the hawks. I would not be surprised if some awful event transpired in the week or two before the election that would be too soon to criticize the bumbling response and defense against these attacks, so that the country would rally around the current wishy washy situation, recoiling in fear at changing horses in mid stream.

the timing is essential because the recriminations will begin after a sufficient mourning period, only adding to the further demise of the communists once their inability to defend us and the utter incompetency is revealed.

Posted by: present-and-unaccounted-for | July 16, 2010 4:35 PM | Report abuse

Sure Republicans can take back the Senate, just as soon as pigs fly. You drooling pundits are going to have a lot to explain when the Repubs pick up one or two seats in the House after promising so much.

Posted by: blazertaco | July 16, 2010 4:33 PM | Report abuse

zouk, your hatred has rendered you completely incoherent. You can't even manage a single sensible paragraph without going lateral on one of your rants.

Your mind has been literally *crippled* by hate.

Posted by: Noacoler | July 16, 2010 4:28 PM | Report abuse

No unemployment? Thank the republicans! For the rest of you -When the economy stalls again - you can thank the republicans too. The republican’s weren’t worried about the deficit when that big insurance company and their friends the Wall Street execs were giving themselves bonuses with taxpayer money!!! Next election – let Congress feel the sting of the unemployment lines!!! No more raping and pillaging the middle class!!! – How many years have you paid taxes? 30? 40? Your government bails out bankers and Wall Street execs using your tax dollars – but unemployment is allowed to expire? What happened to "by the people" or "for the people"? Or are the big campaign contributors the only "people" who count to congress? They are playing games AGAIN FOR THE THIRD TIME while you are wondering how to feed your kids? Figure it out! Malfeasance – Failure of a public official to perform their duties!!! Next Election MAKE YOURSELF MATTER BY VOTING!!! 10% unemployment carries 10% of the vote! Use it!! Fire them all next election or recall every Congress member NOW for Malfeasance – Failure of a public official to perform their duties!!! Next Election - Lets get people elected who actually represent all the People- this current congress represents only special interest groups!

Posted by: agh1 | July 16, 2010 4:24 PM | Report abuse

This week the gulf spill was capped (sorry, Zouk, if you're going to blame Obama for the spill he gets credit for the capping); FinReg passed; breakthrough in US-Russia relations (Iran, spy swap). Little pieces change a narrative.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade


that may work for you wonks in Arlington who pay attention everyday and are predisposed to forgive incompetency from your messiah. But I think that out in the colonies (aka flyover territory) where people tune in only occasionally, the story has been written with a different spin,

It seems our post racial president plays the race card at every opportunity, calling budget and government busters bigots.

It seems he rammed through lots of stuff over the objections of the voters.

It seems he is over his head and has no idea what do about the economy at all.

The most obvious characteristic is the faculty lounge slowness and indecisive behavior that draws out every thought into months of inactivity, even choosing a dog, much less plugging a leak, picking a general or leading the country.

You don't have to take my word for it. The vast array of polls indicating this are incontravertible. It is so bad, that the negative coattails are effecting most Democrats in districts that used to be as safe as your mommies bosom.

no amount of spin is going to account for the reality of the dissappointment.


And BTW, I don;t fault Obama for the spill nor credit him with plugging it. I am more from the school of blaming him for thinking government can do anything for anyone anytime. He desserves to reap what he sowed.

It is clear to all but the most studied ignoramus, that government is the last resort for anything that needs to be done properly.

Posted by: present-and-unaccounted-for | July 16, 2010 4:23 PM | Report abuse

Fairlington's predictions are sound, if on the optimistic side. The best night for Democrats--> down 3. A horrible night for Democrats--> down 7. Republican victory, as in down 10? (Recall that Biden has the tiebreaking vote.) Preposterous.

Posted by: mattfugazi | July 16, 2010 4:18 PM | Report abuse

so if I understand correctly....

Chris is saying the mid terms won't matter.

YEAH !!! Maybe the entries of taking control of Congress again will stop on WaPo.

Today is a good day !!!! 3 martini lunches. From the oil spill, to Healthcare racket busts, to passing Restoring American Financial Stability Act of 2010.

I think we all should leave work early and take the weekend off.....oh wait ((slap)), that's what weekends are for !!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | July 16, 2010 4:18 PM | Report abuse

Hey people, here's a little reminder of exactly what these hard core racist Republicans (Teabaggers) are all about.


From yesterday.


Case Closed: Tea Party Leader Issues Racist Rant in "Colored People" Letter to Abraham Lincoln


On Wednesday, Mark Williams, the outgoing chairman of Tea Party Express — the astroturf group operated by the Republican Party PR firm Russo Marsh & Rogers that organized the three, secretly corporate-funded nationwide tea party bus tours last year — made headlines by calling the NAACP “professional race baiters” and a “vile racist group.” On Thursday, he upped the ante by posting a satiric letter (available, at least for now, on his blog at marktalk.com) from the “Colored People” of today to Pres. Abraham Lincoln:


http://www.pensitoreview.com/2010/07/15/case-closed-tea-party-leader-issues-racist-rant-in-colored-people-letter-to-abraham-lincoln/


.

Posted by: DrainYou | July 16, 2010 4:15 PM | Report abuse

Sage reader

that looks like the secret transcript Obimbo refuses to release from his college days.

Posted by: present-and-unaccounted-for | July 16, 2010 4:11 PM | Report abuse

FLA - Greene has the most money. Got be a billionaire to run ya know.

Missouri - vote Blunt out

Nevada - the race to watch

Illinois - take it off the Line

PA - where are the boxing gloves?

Arkansas - Boozman should cuddle up with the Tea Party, but drink coffee

Indiana - expect visits from President Obama or heck, even Michelle in some capacity.

Delaware - Castle

North Dakota--cold on election day!!!!

///
And Arizona is hot. J.D. Hayworth (sports announcer) vs Arizona War Hero John McCain. The boxing gloves have been found and distributed.


Posted by: TheBabeNemo | July 16, 2010 4:10 PM | Report abuse

God you gomer trolls are stupid.

So CBS rain a questionnaire. Let me guess, it was online, right?

And some site like stormfront or redstate or drudge ordered its knucklewalking readership to skedaddle over the CBS and fill it out, and, shockingly enough, the whole filthy lot of them gave Obama not just low scores but the very lowest ones available,

Yeah, real relevant.

Why don't you guys stick to Rasmussen.

Posted by: Noacoler | July 16, 2010 4:08 PM | Report abuse

Those are some elephant-grey shaded sunglasses you've got there, Reason. Races that are dead ties (MO,KY) you've got as safe seats. Rubio has yet to lead since Crist bolted the party. Your list is a Statue-of-Liberty Doug Flutie shot.

As it is easier to snark than state, I'll give my own list. A slightly different take as rank ordering suggests a higher degree of certainty. [see yseterda

Certain pick-up: North Dakota, Arkansas

Likely to shift (in order): Delaware, Florida*, Indiana

Jump balls: Kentucky, Colorado, Illinois, Missouri, Pennsylvania.

Unlikely to shift: California, Nevada, Washington, Wisconsin

I've got Republicans +3 in likely to shift with a lot on the table. The TP trio (Rubio, Rand, and Angle) look good in the spring, not so good in the fall. Make it a net of 0 to +2R for the rest with an overall gain of 3 - 5 seats.

This week the gulf spill was capped (sorry, Zouk, if you're going to blame Obama for the spill he gets credit for the capping); FinReg passed; breakthrough in US-Russia relations (Iran, spy swap). Little pieces change a narrative.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | July 16, 2010 4:07 PM | Report abuse

zouk started the week angry, sour and stopped-up and has found no relief yet. I suggest more fiber and NEW girlie mags for the weekend.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | July 16, 2010 4:05 PM | Report abuse

Noacoler |- No. I actually made the prediction of the mortgage collapse in the summer of 2008 and, as Chris can tell you, it was dead on accurate. I began posting about the upcoming downward spiral back in late 2009 and described the "double dip" we are falling into now. As for that double dip, it is comparatively mild to what will follow. THAT will be a genuine depression that will last for 6 to 10 years.

Oh, and did I mention that I was actually offered a job by the Obama Administration (also the AON Corporation and several other companies) because of the consistent accuracy of my models, making a lot more money than I do here in Eugene. I don't wan to leave here, however. The idea of living in Chicago or Washington D.C. or (worse) New York, makes me want to vomit. I WILL, however, from time to time post model results, some of them refined down to one or two week periods, which is really showing off because most models cannot predict trends that short. Mine can.

Posted by: mibrooks27 | July 16, 2010 4:05 PM | Report abuse

So how well do Americans think Obama is doing? To find out, CBS ran a questionnaire with a grading system from A to F. Note that this is CBS, not FOX. Here are the results from yesterday. All of CBS must have been surprised by the over 31,400 responses.

CBS: Grade Obama's first year in office in these categories. Responses are shown. The smaller A-D responses are not shown.

The Economy
F: 67.60%

Foreign Policy
F: 59.68%

Health Care
F: 78.67%

Afghanistan
F: 31.93%

Iraq
F: 35.96%

Threat of Terrorism
F: 57.52%

Energy and the Environment
F: 55.04%

Social Issues
F: 58.84%

Bipartisanship
F: 78.20%

Obama's Overall Job as President
F: 63.76%

Posted by: sagereader | July 16, 2010 4:04 PM | Report abuse

this is worth repeating....

you forgot some of Obunglers other accomplishments:

Kept unemployment under 8%
closed Gitmo
stopped Iran from getting Nuke
rained down serious consequences on N Korea
Created 300 million jobs
saved the housing sector
closed the border
governed from the center
ushered in new era of post racial and bi partisan cooperation
reduced the deficit
slowed spending to a crawl
saved social security
bailed out Medicare
won the war
took over congress
wildly popular with surging approval ratings
lowered his golf score
plugged the leak
did not raise taxes one dime
rehabilitated our image in the world
demonstrated competency
grew the economy
was transparent
gave good speeches that didn't bore everyone
knew what he was doing

NOT!

Posted by: NO-bama | July 16, 2010 4:01 PM | Report abuse

AP Misses Real Eye-Opener
in Obama NBC Interview;
Obama Claims He
'Got Us Out of This Mess'

wow, I sure am glad that is over. Happy days are here again. thanks Barry!

to those of you still without a job or a home, just close your eyes and chant with me:


MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM MMMMmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmm

Posted by: present-and-unaccounted-for | July 16, 2010 4:01 PM | Report abuse

you forgot some of Obunglers other accomplishments:

Kept unemployment under 8%
closed Gitmo
stopped Iran from getting Nuke
rained down serious consequences on N Korea
Created 300 million jobs
saved the housing sector
closed the border
governed from the center
ushered in new era of post racial and bi partisan cooperation
reduced the deficit
slowed spending to a crawl
saved social security
bailed out Medicare
won the war
took over congress
wildly popular with surging approval ratings
lowered his golf score
plugged the leak
did not raise taxes one dime
rehabilitated our image in the world
demonstrated competency
grew the economy
was transparent
gave good speeches that didn't bore everyone
knew what he was doing

NOT!

2222222222222222222222222222222

GREAT..TELL ME HOW THE REPUBLIRATS WILL SOLVE ALL THE ABOVE AND YOU MIGHT HAVE SOMETHING.....

Posted by: RPLCO | July 16, 2010 3:51 PM | Report abuse

DrainYou:
Conservatives seem to think that businesses are just doing someone a favor by hiring them rather than giving an opportunity, an opportunity to work, earn a wage and in return help generate revenue for the business.

Employment is a two-way street, the worker needs the job and the employer needs the worker. The employer reaps the profit and the worker earns a living wage.

The employer takes the risk so he/she gains the profit, the worker has a defined role so they earn the wage and whatever benefits the owner is willing to give.

When I announced my resignation from a company the manager asked me why, I replied it was because I was being offered a better health insurance package from my new prospective employer and the one I have here is bottom rung. He replied "A company our size doesn't even HAVE to offer health insurance", I replied "If you want to recruit and retain top talent you do".

Free Market.

Posted by: JRM2 | July 16, 2010 3:47 PM | Report abuse

Let me echo what mattfugazi said about Rossi. You would have to live here to know just what a joke he is.

If you see a Rossi bumpersticker it's always on a beater belching blue smoke or on a pickup truck with double rear wheels bearing NRA and Bush/Cheney stickers, or even McCain-Palin. The latter are really rare here, pre-Palin McCain stickers are more common, but anyway Rossi here is the candidate of angry blue-collar guys who don't know they're voting against themselves.

Not to mention Murray is popular.

Posted by: Noacoler | July 16, 2010 3:47 PM | Report abuse

In 18 months, Obama and Congressional Democrats have embarassed George W. Bush as commander-in-chief by:

* Finally bringing military victory to Iraq and severely crippling Al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

FACT.

Posted by: paul65 | July 16, 2010 3:45 PM | Report abuse

By the way, I do not make this point out of any admiration. Barbara Boxer is gifted with a very shrewd political mind but has not had an original thought about government since 1974. And of course Patty Murray is a rank moron... who has not had an original thought about government since 1974.

Posted by: mattfugazi | July 16, 2010 3:43 PM | Report abuse

In 18 months alone, Obama and Congressional Democratic have overcome Republican opposition to:

* Pass legislation reducing government spending by $1.3 TRILLION over the next 10 years, NET-NET, according to CBO.

FACT.

Posted by: paul65 | July 16, 2010 3:41 PM | Report abuse

Political Discourse in the Age of Obama
Peter Wehner -


The recriminations in which the Democrats have engaged during the past few days evince their growing panic. When a party senses it is about to be administered a crushing rebuke, acrimony rather than comity is what it often musters up.

But here’s a pretty safe bet: in the next few days Hill Democrats and the White House will agree to a truce, even if only a tense one; and they will agree that it is in the interest of all of them to attack Republicans rather than each other. And that is what they will do, with relish.

We are about to enter a period that will be everything Barack Obama promised he would deliver us from: petty politics, ad hominem attacks, silly and unserious charges, cartoon images of opponents, and attempts to divide Americans in order to gain a temporary political advantage, etc.

Across the board, Democrats understand that they have no agenda to run on and no record to defend. “This is not a hope election, it’s a fear election,” Democratic strategist Paul Begala reportedly told young liberal activists recently. “Since you don’t have your hero [Obama] on the ballot, make sure you have a villain.” It will be a discouraging thing for citizens to watch unfold. And I doubt it will succeed. Democrats are facing headwinds gusting at record speeds. They cannot undo the basic trajectory of this election. They cannot undo the radical policies of Barack Obama. And they cannot assuage the anger and remorse many voters feel right now.

Still, Republicans need to prepare for the ugly onslaught to come. They need to be aggressive, quick, and principled in their responses. And they should not count on liberal voices who, when it is convenient, champion civility, high-minded dialogue, and reasoned debate to call off the attack dogs. After all, we’re talking about power here. If the village has to be burned down in order to save it, so be it. It’s so much easier to attack the Tea Party as the modern-day equivalent of the KKK than it is to defend the stimulus package.

Welcome to political discourse in the Age of Obama.

Posted by: present-and-unaccounted-for | July 16, 2010 3:40 PM | Report abuse

I'm sorry, but no.

There are gigantic structural impediments to Murray losing in Washington or Boxer losing in California, despite all the recent hyperventilation over these prospects. Republicans in the Southeast simply can't comprehend that New York, Washington, Oregon, and California have become the equivalents of a Mississippi for the Republicans: places in which only grossly unconventional members of the out party can ever have a chance. Pro-life, avowedly corporate Carly Fiorina is not such a person. The only successful (semi) GOP politicians from any of these places have been Arnold Schwarzeneggar and Mike Bloomberg, both of whom run from any gathering of more than two fellow Republicans like they have the plague.

Public sector union membership and other special interests loom large, but really there is something called the cultural mores. The population of greater Seattle would sooner collectively walk out of their houses and take a stinking dump on their next door neighbor's lawn than pull that Rossi lever in November, and in their hearts I think serious students of politics (GOP or Dem) know it.

Posted by: mattfugazi | July 16, 2010 3:38 PM | Report abuse

In 18 months alone, Obama and the Congressional Democrats have overcome Republican obstruction to:

* Take America from LOSS of 100s of 1000s of jobs per month when he came into office to a GAIN of nearly 100,000 private sector jobs last month alone.

FACT.

Posted by: paul65 | July 16, 2010 3:38 PM | Report abuse

Everytime I see Republicans on here beating on their chests and claiming that they're going to come back into power this fall, I laugh my arse off.

Ask a Republican how to deal with a recession, and you would be safe in betting your life against a steak dinner they will not ask for specifics before laying out their prescription: Cut upper-income and corporate taxes and reduce public spending. They will not ask or state what current rates are, what they are relative to other rates, nor what they should be, because that information - the facts of the situation - has no bearing on their thinking. What counts is the act of cutting, which they regard as an expression of a moral principle.

Ask them how to deal with sluggish growth, or even how to encourage an already-booming economy, and their response will be no different: Cut upper-income and corporate taxes, and cut public spending. Iterate the question through as many different permutations as you please, the result will be the same - their "solution" is fixed in stone. To a rational person it becomes rapidly apparent that the GOP isn't playing with a full deck, but the problem goes much deeper than Republicans being Beavis-like creatures with a single response to everything: They do not even agree with the literal definitions of the nouns in the question, like "economy," nor do they even agree with the unstated assumption that the purpose of economics is to increase general prosperity.

This fact is easily illustrated by asking a simple question: What should be done if these tax rates and social spending are already zero? While some will equivocate, eventually you will get their honest response to that set of circumstances: Under those conditions, there is no problem to be solved.

Got that? If the taxes of the wealthy and corporations are zero, and no public money is spent (or "redistributed") on social programs, then there cannot be an economic problem by definition. Or, at least, they will claim that any problems which do exist are to be blamed on their victims, and thus by default there is nothing wrong with "the economy." If ten million people were homeless and starving, and the National Guard was in the streets to quell food riots, but the tax and spending situation were as they suggest, they would regard the situation as ideal and recognize no problem. This leads one then to question exactly what these maniacs think an "economy" is, and what they regard its purpose to be.

From countless conversations with Republicans, I believe I can say this with all confidence: They do not regard markets as tools to benefit society, but as magical beings or divinities whom mere humans live to serve, and whom governments exist solely to protect from "interference" by democracy, social activism, or unionization. It is these entities they regard to hold not only national sovereignty, but to define moral virtue.

Try to realize what these means: They do not even agree that it is des

Posted by: DrainYou | July 16, 2010 3:36 PM | Report abuse

Top 10 Senate seats:
1. North Dakota
2. Delaware
3. Arkansas
4. Indiana
5. Colorodo
6. Illinois
7. Nevada
8. Pennsylvania
9. California
10. Wisconsin

Those are the top 10 in my view. Going on down the list:

11. Florida
12. Washington
13. Kentucky
14. Connecticut
15. Missouri
16. West Virginia*

I think the rest are pretty safe after the top 15. Of the top 15, I really think Kentucky & Missouri are safe for R's. I also think, even with all of McMahon's spending, Blumenthal will win in Connecticut. Florida is likely to come down to the wire. My only question is will Crist be able to raise the money under no party affiliation like he was as a Republican? If he can, he's got a great shot to win also using the governor's perch as an asset. If Crist can't still raise money, which Rubio will certainly have and the D nominee will have, he's in trouble. Either Rubio or Crist will win this race. We will see who emerges as the D nominee as well, which will have an impact on the race. Washington will be Rossi vs. Murray and it will also be a tight one. In WV, this will be an interesting race even if Manchin does run. Republicans need a wealthy candidate to tie Manchin to Obama/Reid and their agenda. If they can do that, his negatives will shoot up like an alcoholic's blood/alcohol level on a Saturday night! This will give Republican's a real shot to win even in WV. They must first do this, and until they do it's a long shot.

Republicans certainly have a path to the majority. Will they get there? They need to hold all of their seats and get a few lucky breaks along the way. In this political climate, that could well happen. However, Democrats must key in on a few competitive races and help their people win. Florida isn't one of them, as there is no guarantee Crist will caucus with them. Democrats must target to hold Connectiuct, Washington (Rossi has alot of negatives from running 2 losing gubernatorial campaigns) and WV to make sure Manchin keeps that seat for them. If they can win choose, they should target one more and try to hold the senate for 2 more years.

Posted by: reason5 | July 16, 2010 3:33 PM | Report abuse

Republican Orange John Boehner Announces Moratorium -- On All New Federal Regulation


Republicans are finally admitting what they want to do if they get returned to power (they won't) -- not that anybody will be surprised by their agenda. Greg Sargent:


A day after calling for repeal of the new financial regulatory reform bill, Republican John Boehner is going even further: He's calling for a moratorium on all new Federal regulations -- in the name of job creation.


Here's what Boehner told reporters moments ago, per a transcript that was sent my way:


"I think having a moratorium on new federal regulations is a great idea it sends a wonderful signal to the private sector that they're going to have some breathing room." said Boehner

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2010/07/boehner_no_more_federal_regula.html?wprss=plum-line


Gee, that makes a whole lot of sense, doesn't it? Think of all the jobs we'd create if there were another couple dozen oil spills to clean up in the Gulf of Mexico. And if we could just have another financial calamity or two, the employment opportunities in TARPS 2, 3, and 4 would be just great for the American people.


Whatever we do, we shouldn't do something like extend unemployment benefits to people who can't find jobs. And we certainly shouldn't even consider aid to states to keep police officers and teachers on the job. And only an idiot would ever consider additional resources for things like clean energy projects to rebuild our energy grid.....


Posted by: DrainYou | July 16, 2010 3:29 PM | Report abuse

Excellent blog Chris.

I just renewed my subscriptions to DCCC.org and DSCC.org!

My personal preference: Democrats GAIN in November.

Posted by: paul65 | July 16, 2010 3:27 PM | Report abuse

you forgot some of Obunglers other accomplishments:

Kept unemployment under 8%
closed Gitmo
stopped Iran from getting Nuke
rained down serious consequences on N Korea
Created 300 million jobs
saved the housing sector
closed the border
governed from the center
ushered in new era of post racial and bi partisan cooperation
reduced the deficit
slowed spending to a crawl
saved social security
bailed out Medicare
won the war
took over congress
wildly popular with surging approval ratings
lowered his golf score
plugged the leak
did not raise taxes one dime
rehabilitated our image in the world
demonstrated competency
grew the economy
was transparent
gave good speeches that didn't bore everyone
knew what he was doing

NOT!

what we need now is more of this. I don't think the current crop of communists will be able to do it.

Posted by: present-and-unaccounted-for | July 16, 2010 3:25 PM | Report abuse

Well zouk ol' yachtsman if next week's technical solution is a Block Poster feature, who do you think is going to be the more ignored? Me or thee?

It won't be prior censorship or post hoc censorship, the paper can't afford that; it's either going to be an invisible ban which will be trivial to circumvent, since you can't pull this off by blocking IPs, or it's going to be Block Poster, which means you and only you will be seeing your posts within about ten minutes after it goes online.

But given the technical disaster a few weeks ago when they were trying something out here, I'm not holding my breath.

Posted by: Noacoler | July 16, 2010 3:18 PM | Report abuse

Can we all start ignoring Neo now and beat next week's rush?Post often short timer. It will have to last a long time.

Posted by: present-and-unaccounted-for | July 16, 2010 3:12 PM | Report abuse
-----------------


Zouk,
You've been banned from here so many times that your empty head must still be spining.

And if we can get Cillizza to start paying attention to his own blog, I have no doubt that you will be gone again soon.

Get a life you nutbag, you're pathetic

Posted by: DrainYou | July 16, 2010 3:17 PM | Report abuse

WaPo hack euphemism dictionary:

"The race remains tight" = the Republican is ahead

Delaware: Castle +11

Washington: Rossi +3

Wisconsin: Johnson +1

Missouri: Blunt + 2

Posted by: screwjob17 | July 16, 2010 3:16 PM | Report abuse

Celebration of the Obama Admin and Congress’ Achievements A Celebration of the Obama Admin and the Deomctaic led Congress’ Achievments..continued


Caregivers and Veterans Omnibus Health Services Act of 2010:

This bill contains much needed funding for women veterans and provided funding to allow caregivers to stay home with veterans to help in their recovery.

Omnibus Public Land Management Act of 2009 (contains Christopher and Dana Reeve Paralysis Act)
Children's Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2009
Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act of 2009

Foreign Policy:
New START Treaty signed with Russia
U.N. Security Council Nuclear Arms Resolution
Trade Agreement with Russia that may result in 44,000 U.S. jobs.
Iraq withdrawal is ahead of schedule.

Regulatory Changes:

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA):

New rules raising fuel standard requirements.
New rules to regulate coal air pollution, which may result in utilities shutting down smaller, dirtier plants.
New sulfur dioxide emissions limits, which is the first change in 40 years.
New rules to limit water pollution from mining.

VA is making it easier for veterans to get help for PTSD.
HHS announces first national strategy for HIV/AIDS.

New FDA rule requiring egg producers to refrigerate eggs during storage and transportation to reduce salmonella illnesses.

Federal Medical Leave Act extended by Department of Labor to include same-sex relationships.
Goldman Sachs settled SEC civil fraud case and will pay a record $550mm.

Other Executive Branch Decisions:
The plan to bail out General Motors has been a success and they are already starting to pay the U.S. back. In May, General Motors reported 1st quarterly profits in 3 years.
Executive order reversing stem cell ban.
Memo directing HHS to draft rule to prevent hospitals from denying visitation privileges to same-sex partners.
Reversed the "Mexico City Policy" banning funding international family planning groups that provide abortions.

PolitiFact has been tracking President Obama's ability to deliver on candidate Obama's promises. Here's the tally (not including Financial Reform):

Total Promises - 505
Promises Kept - 119 (24%)
Promises Compromised 37 (7%)
Promises Broken 19 (4%)
Promises Stalled 82 (16%)
Promises in the Works 245 (49%)
Promises Not Yet Rated 3 (1%)

Pretty impressive for the first 19 months in office. Fufilling the rest of those promises is going to be difficult. It may be impossible with a Republican-controlled Congress. So, let's get to work on GOTV for the 2010 midterms. If you are looking for a way to help, OFA has events going on right now and throughout the summer.

.

Posted by: DrainYou | July 16, 2010 3:13 PM | Report abuse

Can we all start ignoring Neo now and beat next week's rush?

Post often short timer. It will have to last a long time.

Posted by: present-and-unaccounted-for | July 16, 2010 3:12 PM | Report abuse

Celebration of the Obama Admin and Congress’ Achievements A Celebration of the Obama Admin and the Deomctaic led Congress’ Achievments..continued

The American Recover and Reinvestment Act of 2009(commonly known as the Stimulus Bill) was the largest spending bill in U.S. History. Below is a breakdown of the progressive spending allocated in this bill:

Education - Total: $90.9 billion
* $15.6 billion to increase Pell Grants from $4,731 to $5,350
* $13 billion for low-income public schoolchildren
* $12.2 billion for IDEA special education
* $2.1 billion for Head Start
* $2 billion for childcare services
* $300 million for increased teacher salaries
* $70 million for the education of homeless children
Aid to low income workers, unemployed and retirees - Total: $82.5 billion
* $20.3 billion for food (Food Stamp Program, refill food banks, lunch programs for children and seniors)
* $14.2 billion to give one-time $250 payments to Social Security recipients, people on Supplemental Security Income, and veterans receiving disability and pensions.
* $3 billion in temporary welfare payments
* $500 million for vocational training for the disabled
* $120 million for subsidized community service jobs for older Americans
Infrastructure Investment - Total: $80.9 billion
* $17.8 billion for public transportation projects
* $6 billion for wastewater and drinking water infrastructure
Energy - Total: $61.3 billion
* $15.5 billion funding for an electric smart grid
* $10.8 billion investments in increasing energy efficiency
* $7.3 billion for environmental clean-up

Matthew Shepard and James Byrd, Jr. Hate Crimes Prevention Act:

This bill was originally introduced into Congress in 2001. With its passage, the 1969 U.S. federal hate crime law is expanded to include crimes motivated by victim’s actual or perceived gender, sexual orientation, gender identity or disability. This act is the first federal law to extend legal protections to transgender persons.

Posted by: DrainYou | July 16, 2010 3:10 PM | Report abuse

Hey mibrooks: you were making the exact same predictions last year.

You lost me with the part about the Democrats being the free marketeers. They both suck sewage in that department but it's the Republicans who believe all that thinking money junk.

You're in torture tower territory at this point.

Posted by: Noacoler | July 16, 2010 3:08 PM | Report abuse

A Celebration of the Obama Admin and Congress’ Achievements A Celebration of the Obama Admin and the Deomctaic led Congress’ Achievments:

With the passage of financial reform yesterday, it is time to step back and appreciate all this Congress and the Obama administration have accomplished in the last 19 months. While there is still a lot to do, it is important to remember why we worked so hard for the 2008 election and why we need to work just as hard for the 2010 election.


Major Legislation:

Financial Reform Bill "represents the most profound restructuring of financial regulation since the Great Depression". Below is a brief outline of the bill:

Creation of a new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to be housed in the Fed.
The new agency will have the power to write and enforce new rules governing mortgages and other financial products and Banks with more than $10 billion in assets would be subject to examination.
The government will be given the power to seize and close down large failing firms.
Shareholders and unsecured creditors would bear losses, and management would be removed. Nearly all derivatives deals will have to be conducted through central clearinghouses, so investors can be confident about settling their bets, and firms will have to raise money to cover any unexpected losses.
Most derivatives would be traded on public exchanges, not in private side deals.
Large Wall Street banks will have to spin off some of their trading of derivatives.
The Fed, FDIC and Office the Comptroller of the Currency would each have jurisdiction over different types of banks, with the FDIC, for instance, regulating state banks while the OCC would be responsible for national ones.

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act is a sweeping piece of legislation that will allow 32 million Americans access to health care coverage. The key changes are outlined below (note these changes will take place between 2010 – 2014).

Extension of private insurance coverage for young people through age 26 on parents’ insurance.
Increase funding for Community Health Centers to allow for nearly a doubling of the number of patients seen by the centers over the next 5 years.
Free preventive care under Medicare and new private plans.
Bans lifetime limits and restrictive annual limits on coverage on coverage.
Small business tax credits
Slowly closes the donut hole.
Expands Medicaid eligibility to 133% of federal poverty level and requires states to offer Medicaid to childless adults.
Eliminates pre-existing condition in private insurance.
Insurance companies can no longer charge higher rates due to health status or gender. Premiums can vary only on age (no more than 3:1), geography, family size, and tobacco use.

Posted by: DrainYou | July 16, 2010 3:08 PM | Report abuse

tick tock tick tock Neo.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
By early next week, hopefully 37th, noa and others who clearly violate the rules of the comments section will be gone

Chris
Posted by: Chris_Cillizza | July 15, 2010 8:05 AM

Posted by: present-and-unaccounted-for | July 16, 2010 3:06 PM | Report abuse

Progress report on Obungler - a solid B+.

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

In Mr Obama's poll numbers this week, CBS News reports 13 per cent of the people think his economic leadership has bettered their lives. That means 87 per cent do not – that is rather a lot. The Rasmussen Reports' daily tracking poll yesterday showed 43 per cent strongly disapprove of his leadership and 26 strongly approve. This is low. These are only two examples of the general slide you discern as people talk about Obama.

Here are the things he got wrong. In the middle of an economic crash, and in the middle of record-breaking federal budgets and budget deficits, Mr Obama started a new entitlement. This struck people, by which I mean almost everyone, as off-point. We are in a crisis, part of the crisis involves spending money we don't have, and our answer is to spend more? It wasn't a policy, it was a non sequitur.

Moreover, the President's decision to focus his entire first year on health care, when the voters were focused on the economy, on unemployment, on deficits, demonstrated, in the end unhappily for him and frustratingly for his fellow citizens, that he simply wasn't thinking about what they were thinking about. In a high economy this might have been forgiven if he'd been generally understood to be a visionary. But he didn't come across as a visionary – "We will go this way, the path may not be clear to all but I can see the sunlight through the hills beyond." No. He came across as a detached academic who believed in abstract notions he'd picked up in the faculty lounge.

To make it all worse, just before he went down the health care pass, he put forward, and saw passed, a stimulus Bill that shockingly – I am not being ironic – could not draw the support of a single Republican congressman. Not one. He should have done everything he could, made whatever painful compromises, to garner just a little grouping of Republican support. He needed a Bill he could claim as bipartisan.

Instead, he and his geniuses in the Democratic caucus in Congress decided to do it their way, get the Bill they wanted, and paint the Republicans on the Hill as mere obstructionists – "the party of No". But being the party of No to Obama/Pelosi came to look pretty good pretty fast, and the President united the Republicans in opposition. Before his first year they'd been at each other's throats; now they were at his. He forgot to keep his foes confused.

Most seriously, he neglected to hold the centre. He came to be seen, and again it's reflected in the polls, as a leader who governs from the Left. But at a time when America feels torn up in many ways, a president who held on to the Left and Right and stood in the centre was what was needed. And the institutional Left is barely grateful: he gave them as much as he thought he practically could and they bang their spoons on the highchair none the less.

Posted by: present-and-unaccounted-for | July 16, 2010 3:02 PM | Report abuse

As I posted on Monday, the US economy is in the process of having it's wheels fall off. It is going into a slow motion downward spiral between now and the end of the year. Sometime in early 2011, it will crash, ala the Great Depression.

The slow motion spiral, however, is all it will take for the Republican's to win outright control of both the Senate and the House. Now, political predictions are completely beyond my area of expertise. I do economic modeling. Period. But, the economic model shows trends so dire, so god awful, that there will be people literally starving and freeing to death this next winter **in this country**. The government simply cannot provide a safety net sufficient to help these people. Worse, a Republican victory, even though that is what is needed to put an end to the free traders in the Democratic Party, is going to mean a short term calamity. Democratic candidates are going to need to wake up and run AWAY from Obama and his economic team. Treat him like he is a Republican... or a complete idiot and a lunatic. Beginning with the next Congress, the Republican's will be in control and the Democratic Party, if it has the survival instincts of a gerbil, will need to run as fast and as far away from them and their Clinton-Bush-Obama economic and foreign policies as they can.

Posted by: mibrooks27 | July 16, 2010 3:00 PM | Report abuse

Not only does the GOP take the senate, it has 52 seats. GOP wins, aside from the obvious ones, CA, WA, WI, NV, and FL. After which, look for Nelson in Nebraska to switch to the GOP to bring the total to 53.

Posted by: goldbergjeffrey | July 16, 2010 2:58 PM | Report abuse

Oh, and if Rs d take anything, they will be implementing K Street's agenda -- of course -- and screwing voters.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/07/republicans-k-street-plan-tax-cuts-and-deregulation-under-future-gop-rule-video.php?ref=fpb

'As promised, House Minority Leader John Boehner, along with Reps. Aaron Schock (R-IL) and Peter Roskam (R-IL), huddled this morning with representatives of the most powerful conservative business and trade groups in the country to field policy ideas and build a legislative agenda ahead of the November elections, when Republicans could retake the House. Get ready for more tax cuts for the wealthy and deregulation.

Dan Danner of the National Federation of Independent Businesses spoke up, outraged about "a whole host of new proposed regulations."

All the invitees, which also included the Chamber of Commerce, the National Association of Manufacturers, and several others, were in broad agreement over steps they hope the government takes if Republicans regain power. Many of them once supported President Obama's stimulus plan, but now want to go back to the way things were.

Marlene Colucci of the American Hotel and Lodging Association complained that "auditors can come in, look at your workplace, and if they find, let's say, an OSHA violation, then they can go and find what other violations might exist."

---Wow, what an outrage! Yes, law enforcement officers investigating companies' legal violations were part of the complaints lobbyists brought to the GOP.

The Retail Industry Leaders Association advocated for a lower corporate tax rate, while warning against replacing it with a value-added tax.

The attendees weren't shy about their prescriptions, and the hosts were happy to continue soliciting them.

"We'll continue to stay in touch with all of you," Boehner said."

gee, what a surprise.

Posted by: drindl | July 16, 2010 2:54 PM | Report abuse

You must be joking about the GOP taking back the Senate. IT ALREADY HAS THE SENATE. Heck, the spineless Democrats just roll over and play dead. What's to take back? Give me a break.

Posted by: RedRat | July 16, 2010 2:53 PM | Report abuse

I would keep Washington State on the line. Rossi (R) is polling well against Murray (D). Yes, he just jumped in and has gotten a few weeks of good press, but, her numbers haven't been so amazing. Also, there will be a ballot issue to start a state income tax, just on the wealthy. Whether this brings out more Dems in favor of it, or Republicans and Independents who are against it because it will eventually hit everyone, remains to be seen. Missouri just doesn't look good, Blunt has the edge in a year that will benefit the Republicans more than the Dems. WIsconsin will be interesting, but as Feingold starts his ad campaign, we'll get a better picture. Voters out there value independence, which Feingold certainly has exhibited. Kentucky probably is a tossup at this point. In Arkansas, Boozman is, of course, the favorite still. But, he has represented the most Republican district in the state and so never had to work too hard to get reelected. If his anemic fundraising is any sign of how his campaign is being run, Lincoln might start to pull closer. Her primary win against Halter probably helped her with some great free press.

I agree that Delaware belongs high up on this list, but, this race, in a very small state of about 885,000 people, could change. In 2000, 5 term Republican Senator Roth lost reelection to then Dem. Gov. Carper. Delaware is even more Democratic now. Of course, Rep. Castle is the overwhelming favorite at this point, but, Coons is the county executive of the largest county, where over half of the state's population lives. Also, there were a total of approximately 400,000 votes cast in 2008 there, and Dems outnumber registered Republicans by 100,000 voters. Yes, Castle has done really well statewide, across the board, here over the years, but, in 2000, Roth lost, and the age issue was one of the reasons. Coons is 47, Castle is in his 70's, so who knows? Castle also votes with the House Republicans on most issues, aka, he just votes no on everything, and most voters are looking for competence this year of uncertainty. Once again, this is just a possibility, Castle is still the favorite though.

Posted by: gckarcher | July 16, 2010 2:53 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: screwjob17 | July 16, 2010 2:46 PM | Report abuse
-----------


Screwy Clown,
Are you about done spamming with your bs (R) Rasmussen polls yet?


Does Cillizza even pay attention to his blog anymore? Sheeze..

Posted by: DrainYou | July 16, 2010 2:52 PM | Report abuse

Not only is zouk on here all day every day, but he spends hours preparing for each days blast of sewage, scouring the hate sites for satisfyingly pithy screeds to paste here.

So where in the interstices of all that scouring and all that pasting and all those attacks on drindl and the rest do you get time for, oh, you know, being alive?

Wow zouk I sure envy your trillions of dollars and your boat and your wonderful fambly. I was just talking about it with the tooth fairy the other day.

Posted by: Noacoler | July 16, 2010 2:52 PM | Report abuse

Snowballs chance at a global warming rally of the Republicans pulling this off. First of all it is July. Polls are pointless in July. Second, all the Republican momentum is coming off far-right partisans. Yes it is good to have your base fired up, but their fired up base is being openly racist when they aren't arguing that unemployment benefits are bad for the country. No doubt the Republicans would sweep out the Dems if only white males were allowed to vote.

Republicans pick up seats, but are far from a majority in either chamber.

Posted by: caribis | July 16, 2010 2:51 PM | Report abuse

You guys in the media are doing an absolutely fantastic job of selling space. I, for one, have not forgotten the prior 8 years - B.O.(Before Obama.) I am sure the American voters have not forgotten either and when the curtain closes in the voters booth, the Repubs will still be without a voice. A "No" vote is not the answer. If you are not willing to compromise, then get out or we will take your office from you.

Posted by: NativeSonofTexas | July 16, 2010 2:51 PM | Report abuse

How is Kentucky not on the list? Especially over Pennsylvania. The democratic lean of the State and the fact that Toomey is very far right means that Pennsylvania will stay blue come next fall.

Posted by: AndyR3 | July 16, 2010 2:50 PM | Report abuse

@ drindl,
The Teabagger goons ARE the Republican base nuts, period, end of story.

These are the same low IQ morons who still thought Shrub Jr and Darth were doing a heckuva job when they left office.

They rebranded themselves as "Teabaggers" because they already trashed the Republican brand name during the Bushco era.

Posted by: DrainYou | July 16, 2010 2:49 PM | Report abuse

WaPo hack euphemism dictionary:

"The race remains tight" = the Republican is ahead

Delaware: Castle +11

Washington: Rossi +3

Wisconsin: Johnson +1

Missouri: Blunt + 2

Posted by: screwjob17 | July 16, 2010 2:46 PM | Report abuse

OH, also there was a question as to whether teatards are racists? Well, I think we can put the question to rest:

he Tea Party Express' Mark Williams -- fresh off his claim that the NAACP makes "more money off of race than any slave trader, ever" -- took to his personal blog today to offer an at least racist-ish screed calling out the NAACP for continuing to use the word "Colored" in its name.

In the post, Williams calls NAACP President Ben Jealous "Tom's Nephew" and ties tea party calls for smaller government to "emancipation" (which, of course, is just steps away from the standard tea party line that Democratic policies amount to "tyranny.")

But the central theme centers around, as Williams writes, the "absurdity of a group that calls blacks 'Colored People' hurling charges of racism."

Here's a sample (the post is written in the form of a mock letter to President Abraham Lincoln from Jealous):

"We Colored People have taken a vote and decided that we don't cotton to that whole emancipation thing. Freedom means having to work for real, think for ourselves, and take consequences along with the rewards. That is just far too much to ask of us Colored People and we demand that it stop.

Perhaps the most racist point of all in the tea parties is their demand that government "stop raising our taxes." That is outrageous! How will we Colored People ever get a wide screen TV in every room if non-coloreds get to keep what they earn? Totally racist! The tea party expects coloreds to be productive members of society?

Mr. Lincoln, you were the greatest racist ever. We had a great gig. Three squares, room and board, all our decisions made by the massa in the house. Please repeal the 13th and 14th Amendments and let us get back to where we belong."

Again, for the record: this how an official at the Tea Party Express explains how not racist the Tea Party is.

Posted by: drindl | July 16, 2010 2:43 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: present-and-unaccounted-for | July 16, 2010 2:33 PM | Report abuse
--------


Nothing makes me laugh harder than when racist doughy white rich Republicans come on here claim that they are being oppressed by minorities....


HAHAHAHA!


Poor Zouky (present-and-accounted-for), the angry pinch faced Teabagger racists just keep getting held down by "the man", right?

Posted by: DrainYou | July 16, 2010 2:41 PM | Report abuse

10.8% unemployment in the first two years of his first term?

Turning a $55 billion deficit into $3 trillion?

Higher taxes than our current administration?

Presided over the Savings and Loan scandal?

Turned tail and ran after 300 Marines were killed in their barracks in a missile strike in Beruit?

Then the Iran/Contra scandal?

Ok, he did have a sunny demeanor.


Posted by: JRM2 |


>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

didn't you hear. It is now perfectly acceptable to simply blame everything that ever happens on the previous administration.

Carter did it!

Posted by: present-and-unaccounted-for | July 16, 2010 2:40 PM | Report abuse

Michelle Obama gave her own race-baiting appeal to the annual convention of the NAACP. The message was clear: racial solidarity for the black President. WWMLKT—What Would Martin Luther King Think? Support a President because he is black and not because of the content of his character?

During the so-called Obama recovery, unemployment for blacks is at 16%, nearly twice the national number. There is silence from the NAACP on what really matters—jobs. But on race baiting, they are more than ready to help.

The NAACP resolved to condemn the state of Arizona as "racist" for passing SB1070, enforcing existing federal immigration law in Arizona. How better to do that than claim that enforcing existing immigration law is racist?

Then the NAACP condemns the Tea Party as "racist." I certainly have trouble taking seriously any condemnation of racism in others from a group that has the phrase "colored people" in its title.

More troubling, the NAACP has obviously never read the Arizona law any more than Eric Holder or Janet Napolitano did before condemning it as "discriminatory" and "racist". The law prohibits racial "profiling," requiring that Arizona law enforcement ask about immigration status only when someone stopped for another crime is unable to produce valid U.S. identification. Only then is that individual handed over to federal officers to verify immigration status.

As for the Tea Party, never has a more peaceful, less racist group gathered in public. In support of the "racist" charge, the NAACP speakers alleged that "Lynch Obama" and "Lynch Holder" signs were displayed by Tea Party activists in rallies.

I have been to four Tea Party rallies and have never seen such signs or any sign that could be interpreted as "racist." Signs depicting Obama as "Hitler" were supposedly displayed at some Tea Party rallies, but people waving those signs were plants from anti-Tea Party organizations that were quickly identified and asked to leave.

A black man was beaten at a Tea Party rally last year. He carried a sign protesting Obama policies and was beaten by a thug in an SEIU purple shirt. No "civil rights" investigation by Eric Holder to date.

Domestically, Obama and the Democrats understand one thing, their coalition has imploded and they are desperate to rebuild one, one sure fire way is to allege racism, it remains the one issue Democrats are still comfortably peddling.

Posted by: present-and-unaccounted-for | July 16, 2010 2:35 PM | Report abuse

Obama Plays the Race Card
by Roger Hedgecock

The Obama Administration is playing the race card to win the November election and keep control of Congress.

The President who promised to "bring us together" acts now to fan the flames of racial division.

As every poll shows increasing disaffection among Obama 2008 voters, a desperate White House falls back on Alinsky 101—mobilize your supporters with a campaign of racial and class division and demonize, divide, and demoralize the opposition.

In just 18 months, Obama's promise to "fundamentally transform" America got translated into legislative "accomplishments" that nationalized health care, bailed out "fat cats," spent nearly $1 trillion in a failed "stimulus," and drove 2.5 million more Americans into unemployment.

New CBS and Bloomberg polls indicate that Americans are angry about the lack of progress in the economy. In the Bloomberg poll, 70 % want more focus on jobs and the economy and in the CBS Poll just 13% think that Obama has been good for America.

Do congressional Democrats plan to run on these accomplishments in November; hardly. They plan to play the race card.

It’s already happening. Connect the dots.

King Samir Shabazz, leader of the New Black Panther Party wields a club in front of a polling place in Philadelphia on Election Day 2008. Convicted of a Voting Rights Act violation during the waning months of the Bush Administration, Obama’s Atty. Gen. Eric Holder dropped the charges before sentencing.

Christian Adams, career Justice Department civil rights attorney, quit and blew the whistle on Holder’s Justice Department, where, says Adams, civil rights for whites will not be protected. He said he was told by one Obama political appointee in Justice, "It’s payback time".

Shabazz is caught on tape urging blacks to "kill white babies". The tape is ignored by the pro-Obama media while Mel Gibson's racist rants are played ad nauseum

A white transit officer shoots and kills a black BART passenger in San Francisco. He is tried and convicted of manslaughter. Rioting breaks out in Oakland. Rioters break windows and loot stores, apparently demanding stiffer punishment. The rioters want the death penalty for a white cop killing a black civilian but still want to "Free Mumia," a black man who killed a white cop. Eric Holder promptly announces a double-jeopardy "civil rights" prosecution of the white transit cop.

The attorney general last week also brought indictments against six police officers in New Orleans in the 2005 Danziger Bridge shooting case. The DOJ is making this a racially charged prosecution, despite the fact that three of the six police officers are themselves black. The DOJ has already pre-sold the prosecution as occurring along racial lines.

Posted by: present-and-unaccounted-for | July 16, 2010 2:33 PM | Report abuse

CC: Your exclamation point after "Thank you Ronald Reagan" is rather telling, leads one to believe that you are thanking him personally.

Would you care to tell us what was so great about him that you need to personally thank him for his efforts such as:
10.8% unemployment in the first two years of his first term?

Turning a $55 billion deficit into $3 trillion?

Higher taxes than our current administration?

Presided over the Savings and Loan scandal?

Turned tail and ran after 300 Marines were killed in their barracks in a missile strike in Beruit?

Then the Iran/Contra scandal?

Ok, he did have a sunny demeanor.

Posted by: JRM2 | July 16, 2010 2:26 PM | Report abuse

Harry Reid pulls substantially ahead of Angel in Nevada today, and what is Aaron and Felecia's spin at The Fix?
Can Rs now take over the US Senate?
bizarro.
there should be an opening at faux news
soon Aaron and Felcia, if you hurry you might find someone who really cares.

Posted by: leichtman1 | July 16, 2010 2:26 PM | Report abuse

Wow, the CfG has done its best work yet in getting terrible candidates nominated. Republicans look to have some buyer's remorse.

I'm guessing Sue Lowden, Arlen Specter (R), Charlie Crist (R), Rob Simmons, and Trey Grayson are starting to look pretty good now.

I'd move Florida to #8. If Meek can't solidify his base, then it moves up much higher.

Ark. should be #3.

I'd also flip IL and PA. I think Kirk is a much stronger candidate than Toomey and that would make his victory more likely despite Toomey's environmental advantage.

Posted by: DDAWD | July 16, 2010 2:24 PM | Report abuse

WaPo hack euphemism dictionary:

"The race remains tight" = the Republican is ahead

Delaware: Castle +11

Washington: Rossi +3

Wisconsin: Johnson +1

Missouri: Blunt + 2

Posted by: screwjob17 | July 16, 2010 2:16 PM | Report abuse

Speaking of Republican losers.....


Republican Orange John Boehner Announces Moratorium -- On All New Federal Regulation


Republicans are finally admitting what they want to do if they get returned to power (they won't) -- not that anybody will be surprised by their agenda. Greg Sargent:


A day after calling for repeal of the new financial regulatory reform bill, Republican John Boehner is going even further: He's calling for a moratorium on all new Federal regulations -- in the name of job creation.


Here's what Boehner told reporters moments ago, per a transcript that was sent my way:


"I think having a moratorium on new federal regulations is a great idea it sends a wonderful signal to the private sector that they're going to have some breathing room." said Boehner

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/plum-line/2010/07/boehner_no_more_federal_regula.html?wprss=plum-line


Gee, that makes a whole lot of sense, doesn't it? Think of all the jobs we'd create if there were another couple dozen oil spills to clean up in the Gulf of Mexico. And if we could just have another financial calamity or two, the employment opportunities in TARPS 2, 3, and 4 would be just great for the American people.


Whatever we do, we shouldn't do something like extend unemployment benefits to people who can't find jobs. And we certainly shouldn't even consider aid to states to keep police officers and teachers on the job. And only an idiot would ever consider additional resources for things like clean energy projects to rebuild our energy grid.....

Posted by: DrainYou | July 16, 2010 2:14 PM | Report abuse

OH, also there was a question as to whether teatards are racists? Well, I think we can put the question to rest:

he Tea Party Express' Mark Williams -- fresh off his claim that the NAACP makes "more money off of race than any slave trader, ever" -- took to his personal blog today to offer an at least racist-ish screed calling out the NAACP for continuing to use the word "Colored" in its name.

In the post, Williams calls NAACP President Ben Jealous "Tom's Nephew" and ties tea party calls for smaller government to "emancipation" (which, of course, is just steps away from the standard tea party line that Democratic policies amount to "tyranny.")

But the central theme centers around, as Williams writes, the "absurdity of a group that calls blacks 'Colored People' hurling charges of racism."

Here's a sample (the post is written in the form of a mock letter to President Abraham Lincoln from Jealous):

"We Colored People have taken a vote and decided that we don't cotton to that whole emancipation thing. Freedom means having to work for real, think for ourselves, and take consequences along with the rewards. That is just far too much to ask of us Colored People and we demand that it stop.

Perhaps the most racist point of all in the tea parties is their demand that government "stop raising our taxes." That is outrageous! How will we Colored People ever get a wide screen TV in every room if non-coloreds get to keep what they earn? Totally racist! The tea party expects coloreds to be productive members of society?

Mr. Lincoln, you were the greatest racist ever. We had a great gig. Three squares, room and board, all our decisions made by the massa in the house. Please repeal the 13th and 14th Amendments and let us get back to where we belong."

Again, for the record: this how an official at the Tea Party Express explains how not racist the Tea Party is.


Posted by: drindl | July 16, 2010 2:12 PM | Report abuse

Exactly, margaret, but a boy can dream, eh?

Conway is running even with Paul in KY, in what should have been an easy R win. Even according to the Republican pollster Rasmussen.

And Angle's money is all coming from out of state -- the more she talks, the more people in Nevada realize she is nuts.

Posted by: drindl | July 16, 2010 2:06 PM | Report abuse

Chris when did you steer from politic to being a gossip fortune teller for the pols? Gess, get a life and talk about the issues and the impact of what these folks running would be on Americans.

Posted by: crrobin | July 16, 2010 2:02 PM | Report abuse

Also-- no way Toomey wins. Sharron Angle's chances are much better for a flip to the GOP.

Posted by: mattfugazi | July 16, 2010 1:52 PM | Report abuse

Also-- no way Toomey wins. Sharron Angle's chances are much better for a flip to the GOP.

Posted by: mattfugazi | July 16, 2010 1:52 PM | Report abuse

I've looked at the polls in KY, and Conway has never ever led Paul. It also seems like Paul's worst gaffes are behind him and the Kentucky folk have already forgiven them.

Posted by: mattfugazi | July 16, 2010 1:49 PM | Report abuse

This is very unexpected. Cillizza sees a great highway to a serious Republican Senate victory!

Did that window pane acid have a flying elephant on it or the Mad Hatter?

Posted by: margaretmeyers | July 16, 2010 1:47 PM | Report abuse

What about Rand Paul in KY? Did I miss something or is that not on the list? I think Dems have a pretty decent shot of winning against that nutbag. He proves his crazy bonafides more and more every day.

Posted by: mtropp5722 | July 16, 2010 1:44 PM | Report abuse

I think that Critz has a lot better chance of flipping Florida to independent than Robin Carnahan has of flipping Missouri Democratic. She just isn't burning up the wires.

Posted by: mattfugazi | July 16, 2010 1:44 PM | Report abuse

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