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Five days in May

Five days in May -- from the 18th to the 22nd -- will tell us much about just how bad the political environment is, and will be, for House Democrats this fall.

On May 18, voters in southwestern Pennsylvania will pick a replacement for the late Rep. John Murtha in a special election. Businessman Tim Burns (R) and former Murtha district director Mark Critz (D) will carry their respective party banners in the 12th district special election.

Four days later, a second special election will be held -- this one in Hawaii's 1st district. Two Democrats -- state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa and former Rep. Ed Case -- as well as Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R) will face off in a winner-take-all race.

For Republicans to build genuine momentum -- and perk up what, to date, has been surprisingly sluggish fundraising -- it would help immensely to win one of these two races.

House Democrats are currently on an amazing five-race winning streak in contested special election that dates back all the way to 2008 and it's hard for Republicans to make the case that the majority is in play if they can't take advantage of the favorable political climate to steal a race in the runup to the midterms. (If Republicans swing and miss at these two races, they're likely to have a third chance in a special election for former New York Rep. Eric Massa's 29th district although Gov. David Paterson has yet to set a special election date.)

Friday Line

On paper, Pennsylvania's 12th looks like the better of the two options for Republicans as it was the only district in the country to vote for Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004 and then support Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008.

But, Democrats have a major registration edge in the district and the timing of the special to coincide with primaries across the state likely gives Critz a leg up since Democrats are playing host to very competitive primaries for governor and Senate while Republicans have little going on statewide to help drive turnout for Burns.

Hawaii, however, is shaping up to be a major headache for Democrats for two reasons. First, Case and Hanabusa seem to be moving toward an all-out assault on one another with the likely result being a fractured Democratic party vote. Second, the winner-take-all nature of the special elections means that that sort of splintering of votes between two well-known commodities in the Democratic party could make Djou a winner if he can simply consolidate Republican votes and peel away a few Democratic-leaning independents. (All of the candidates run on a single ballot.)

A loss in a district as Democratic as Hawaii -- it is, in fact, President Obama's home district -- would have an effect on Democratic elected officials similar to that of Sen. Scott Brown's (R) victory in Massachusetts in January. That is to say, panic.

Below you'll find our rankings of the 20 House races most likely to switch parties in the November election. As always, the number one ranked race is considered the most vulnerable to a party turnover.

To the Line!

Coming off the Line: Arkansas' 1st, Alabama's 2nd, Idaho's 1st, Washington's 3rd.
Coming onto the Line: Hawaii's 1st, New York's 29th, Pennsylvania's 15th, Virginia's 2nd.

20. Pennsylvania's 15th (Republican-controlled): In an election without much good news, Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan is a Democratic bright spot. Democratic strategists are convinced that he will be coming to Congress based on his candidate skills, internal polling and the fact that Rep. Charlie Dent (R) hasn't had a serious race since coming to Congress in 2004. It may not be that easy. This is former Rep. Pat Toomey's (R) old congressional seat and he'll need a big turnout in it this fall if he hopes to win the Senate race. (Previous ranking: N/A)

19. Virginia's 2nd district (D): Rep. Glenn Nye (D) was swept into office in 2008 thanks to a surge in African American turnout in this Virginia Beach-based district where one in every five resident is black. Without President Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, it's harder to see how Nye gets to the magic 50 percent marker. Auto dealer Scott Rigell (R) faces a primary but with $500,000 in the bank he should be able to navigate those waters for a chance at Nye in the general. (Previous ranking: N/A)

18. Pennsylvania's 7th district (Democratic controlled): Republicans remain ecstatic about former U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan's candidacy although at a recent candidate meet and greet in Washington we were less impressed with him than expected. One thing Meehan clearly does well is raise money; he ended 2009 with $694,000 in the bank. Democrats have rallied behind state Rep. Bryan Lentz who was recently named to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue" list. (Previous ranking: 20)

17. Hawaii's 1st (D): As we mentioned above, this special election spells trouble with a capital "T" for Democrats. The infighting between Hanbusa and Case coupled with Djou's credible candidacy is a problem waiting to happen for the majority party. (Previous ranking: N/A)

16. Florida's 8th district (D): Rep. Alan Grayson is probably too liberal for this central Florida seat and his strident public pronouncements (and love of the spotlight) don't do him any favors electorally. But, Grayson's high profile has helped him raise scads of cash -- $861,000 in the final three months of 2009 alone -- and preferred Republican nominee Bruce O'Donoghue faces a late (August 24) primary fight. (Previous ranking: 15)

15. Ohio's 15th district (D): Two years ago, national Republicans believed that state Sen. Steve Stivers was their best candidate in the country. But, he lost by 2,000 (or so) votes to Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D). Stivers is back again and without presidential year turnout at THE Ohio State University, Kilroy may struggle to preserve her winning margin from 2008. (Previous ranking: 18)

14. Ohio's 1st (D): After repeated attempts to beat Rep. Steve Chabot (R), Democrats finally made it over the top in 2008 thanks to a turnout surge among the large chunk of African-American voters living in Cincinnati. But, with black turnout expected to return to normal levels (or below) in the midterms, Chabot is back and Rep. Steve Driehaus (D) is rightly concerned. (Previous ranking: 16)

13. Tennessee's 8th (D): On paper, this is a very tough open seat hold for Democrats as President Obama took just 43 percent of the vote in the 8th in 2008. But, following the retirement of Rep. John Tanner (D), Democrats quickly rallied around state Sen. Roy Herron as their nominee. National Republicans -- led by California Rep. Kevin McCarthy -- have touted the candidacy of farmer Stephen Fincher but he faces a primary and is an unproven commodity on the campaign trail. Still, the demographics of this seat are tough for Democrats and it's shaping up to be a very good year for Republicans in the Volunteer State. (Previous ranking: 14)

12. Virginia's 5th district (D): Much of Rep. Tom Perriello's (D) political fate is tied up with the identity of the eventual Republican nominee. If state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) can navigate his way through the June 8 primary, Perriello is in deep trouble. If, however, someone like businessman Laurence Verga, a conservative who identifies closely with the tea Party movement, pulls an upset then Perriello is very much in the game in this Southside district that includes the University of Virginia. (Previous ranking: 12)

11. Mississippi's 1st district: At the start of the 2010 election cycle, we ranked this seat and Alabama's 2nd district side by side. Both southern seats tilt heavily toward Republicans but were won by conservative Democrats able to distance themselves from the national party. Alabama's 2nd is no longer on the Line as Rep. Bobby Bright (D) continues to prove his staying power. But, Rep. Travis Childers (D) is among the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in the country for two reasons: 1) State Sen. Alan Nunnelee appears to be the real deal and 2) Childers raised an eye-poppingly bad $110,000 in the final three months of last year. (Previous ranking: 11)

10. New Mexico's 2nd district (D): The dynamic of this race has long been set. Former Rep. Steve Pearce (R), who held this southern New Mexico seat from 2002 to 2008, will cast Rep. Harry Teague (D) as out of step with the district due to his vote in favor of the cap and trade bill. Teague will argue he is an independent voice for New Mexico. Both men have considerable personal wealth to bring to bear on the race. (Previous ranking: 8)

9. New York's 29th district (D): Assuming Paterson calls a special election to replace Massa, this southern tier district is a major problem for Democrats. Republicans seem to be lining up behind Corning Mayor Tom Reed for the special, a move that should immediately bolster Reed's somewhat lackluster fundraising to date. (Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks remains in the mix on the Republican side too, and is regarded by many as a potentially strong candidate removed herself from consideration today.) The Democratic field has yet to take shape as elected officials and party leaders try to take stock of the damage Massa has done. This is a Republican-tilting district under ordinary circumstances -- McCain carried it with 51 percent -- and these are no ordinary circumstances. (Previous ranking: N/A)

8. Illinois' 10th district (R): Both parties got their preferred candidate in the state's Feb. 2 primary. Dan Seals (D), who has run and lost two races for the seat, narrowly defeated a state legislator while businessman Bob Dold (R) cruised to a more pedestrian victory. By the numbers, this affluent North Shore seat favors Democrats as President Obama carried it with 61 percent in 2008. (Previous ranking: 7)

7. Maryland's 1st district (D): One of many rematches on the docket this fall, the race for this Eastern Shore district pits freshman Rep. Frank Kratovil (D) against state Sen. Andy Harris (R). While Harris is probably a tick or two too conservative for the seat, the raw numbers in the district -- Obama won just 40 percent here in 2008 -- look to be determinative. (Previous ranking: 6)

6. Arkansas' 2nd district (D): Former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin (R) is running strong -- he was in the race prior to Rep. Vic Snyder's (D) retirement -- and Democrats are headed for a crowded primary fight. No matter who emerges, the demographics of this district are tough for the party; President Obama won 44 percent in the Little Rock-area seat in 2008. (Previous ranking: 9)

5. Louisiana's 3rd district (D): Races start notoriously late in Louisiana and this contest to replace Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) who is running for Senate is no exception. For months, political observers have been waiting for two people to make up their minds on the race: former state House Speaker Hunt Downer and Jindal Administration official Scott Angelle. Conventional wisdom is that Downer will run for the Republican nod and Angelle, a Democrat, will stay out of the race entirely. If Downer runs, he likely wins in this southeastern Louisiana seat. (Previous ranking: 4)

4. Kansas' 3rd district (D): Democrats have watched all of their top tier nominees take a pass on the chance to replace retiring Rep. Dennis Moore (D). The latest potential candidate -- floated by Moore himself -- is his wife, Stephene. But, it's hard to gauge how serious she is and whether, if she ran, she would be a quality candidate. Republicans have a contested August primary featuring several elected officials but the national party has to feel good about its prospects in this seat. (Previous ranking: 5)

3. Delaware's at-large district (R): Former Lt. Gov. John Carney (D) is a solid favorite to win the open seat race created by Rep. Mike Castle's (R) decision to run for Senate. But, Republicans see a glimmer of hope in the potential candidacy of businesswoman Michele Rollins. Rollins, who has considerable personal wealth, would be a credible challenger in a seat where Republicans appeared dead in the water just a few weeks ago. (Previous ranking: 2)

2. Louisiana's 2nd district (R): President Obama won 75 percent of the vote in Rep. Joseph Cao's New Orleans-area district in 2008. No matter who Democrats nominate, it appears as though the future isn't Cao. (Previous ranking: 3)

1. Tennesee's 6th district (D): The only drama in this middle Tennessee open seat is who wins the Republican primary. (Previous ranking: 1)

By Chris Cillizza  |  March 12, 2010; 11:00 AM ET
Categories:  The Line  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Health care ad spending grows; will it matter?
Next: The Massa mishigas, health care politics and the Fix's cupcake rankings

Comments

I am Democrat and proud of it. So I see this argument over Health Care as a battle
cry for the party to stand up and tell the Tea people to get a life and shut up. Just a side note before doing this post I increased my contribution to my local Congressman.

Posted by: piemcj | March 19, 2010 7:34 AM | Report abuse

I will never underestimate the will of the selfish obtuse "leftist" in the face of the clear overwhelming opposition of "the people(anyone who cisagrees with you)"

and then this asinine remark: "Democrats plan to reduce costs by limiting care through "rationing"

Precisely what would you call the current system wher over 40 million Americans do not currently have HC and 45,000 Americans die each year b/c they can't afford HC premiums, if not rationing.

Anyone here have employer subsidized HC? Guess what. Your employer, HR Dept and HC carrier ration your current HC. Ever told by your employer's plan that you can t take that particular medication b/c it is not on the formulary or that a particular medical procedure is not covered in your HC plan? What would you call that? I call the current system rationing.

And lefties are thrilled with this plan? Again you don't know what you are talking about b/c many centrists Americans who you would label as lefties (i.e. anyone who disagrees with you or the current system that can double your premium at whim) would prefer Medicare for All. But since most righties consider Medicare to be socialism, they would never consider expanding it to those 55 years and up.

Posted by: leichtman1 | March 13, 2010 12:47 PM | Report abuse

@wash13,

You are right about the trend lines on the 2010 midterm predictions. If you look at ALL the contracts for whether Democrats will retain control of House and Senate, you will see that the chances are over 50%--56% for the House and 68% for the Senate.

The contracts assessing the chances for the Republicans gaining control are 46% for the House and 24% for the Senate.

Obviously, the trendlines for the Democrats has been declining and for the Republicans have been going up as the retirements and scandals take their toll. Nothing unusual yet compared to prior election cycles.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | March 13, 2010 11:25 AM | Report abuse

The trend line on Intrade on Health Care seems to coincide with the trend line on Democrats controlling the House after the November Election.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp?selConID=639645

The more likely Health Care will pass means the more likely Democrats will lose the House.

Posted by: Washington13 | March 13, 2010 11:09 AM | Report abuse

Intrade prices the chances of HCR reform passage at 68%. At the beginning of March, the chances were only 40&. Obviously, traders are recognizing the increasing odds for passage.

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=709242&z=1267779857294

Intrade makes a market for futures contracts that trade (for real money) on certain current events.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | March 13, 2010 10:57 AM | Report abuse

I would not bet against Nancy Pelosi getting the votes either.

I will never underestimate the will of the selfish obtuse leftist in the face of the clear overwhelming opposition of the people.

Democrats plan to reduce costs by limiting care through rationing.

The sick elderly will be denied "extraordinary care" and allowed to die off thus reducing costs.

More abortions will occur and in turn reduce the costs of pediatric care.

Just think of the savings.

It's about as disgusting a plan as you could come up with.

Don't doubt Pelosi. Don't doubt the selfish.

Posted by: Washington13 | March 13, 2010 10:40 AM | Report abuse

'Looks like Nancy does not have the votes'

we will remind you how totally wrong you were next friday when 216 Ds, after 70 years, finally pass HC reform which during the 8 years of total control of all branches of govt the R did absolutely zero to fix even in their perveted way. R hot air does nothing to lead our nation; all hat no cattle.

Posted by: leichtman1 | March 13, 2010 8:58 AM | Report abuse

The Constitution of the United States requires that members of Congress have to vote yea or nay on any piece of legislation before it becomes a law.

To do otherwise would be tyranny and a clear violation of the Constitution.

If Democrats plan to violate the Constitution by deeming this bill as passed through a rule change in another bill, then we as citizens do not have to obey it because it will not be a law even if the President signs it.

I will not pay your fine.

I will not go to jail for not paying your fine.

You Democrats will have done something that has never been done before. You will have violated the Constitution in order to pass legislation.

You can not deem something to have been voted on that has never been voted on at least once by the House.

You can pretend you have a new rule to do this but only the most devious and fundamentally anti-American individual would agree with your tactics of tearing up the Constitution to do so.

Go ahead. Change the rules. Violate the Constitution. Not only will we vote you out of office, but your entire bill will be thrown out in court.

Posted by: Washington13 | March 13, 2010 5:29 AM | Report abuse

But really all Obama has done is dump all the hard work on Nancy's doorstep.


Tell Obama to go pound salt - Tell Obama to get his own votes.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 13, 2010 12:34 AM
----------------------------------
Bwahahahahaha!!!

Poor Nancy. Sure, she ought to just to say "pound salt, Obama". Sure.

Posted by: 12BarBlues | March 13, 2010 1:06 AM | Report abuse

It is entirely possible that Nancy and Steny have had enough of this whole thing.


Obama and the White House have been in fantasyland for the past month -


And all they have been doing is telling Nancy and Steny to pass a bill when it will put at risk the ENTIRE HOUSE LEADERSHIP - AND MANY HOUSE DEMOCRATIC SEATS.


Public opinion - Obama doesn't care about it.


It is entirely possible that Nancy is just going to call a vote - without having the votes - just to get it over with - just to finish it off.

Obama deserves it.

Think about it - if you were Speaker - and putting up with everything Obama has thrown at the House over the past year - and then Obama pulled what he has pulled over the past month - that bogus health care summit which was more like a lecture on what Obama wanted.


I would tell Obama to go stuff it.


Call the vote for Friday and tell the White House to get their own votes - give them the package they asked for and tell Obama - you are such a hot-shot - going around the country for 2 years telling everyone what you could accomplish in Washington.


But really all Obama has done is dump all the hard work on Nancy's doorstep.


Tell Obama to go pound salt - Tell Obama to get his own votes.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 13, 2010 12:34 AM | Report abuse

It is entirely possible that Nancy and Steny have had enough of this whole thing.


Obama and the White House have been in fantasyland for the past month -


And all they have been doing is telling Nancy and Steny to pass a bill when it will put at risk the ENTIRE HOUSE LEADERSHIP - AND MANY HOUSE DEMOCRATIC SEATS.


Public opinion - Obama doesn't care about it.


It is entirely possible that Nancy is just going to call a vote - without having the votes - just to get it over with - just to finish it off.

Obama deserves it.

Think about it - if you were Speaker - and putting up with everything Obama has thrown at the House over the past year - and then Obama pulled what he has pulled over the past month - that bogus health care summit which was more like a lecture on what Obama wanted.


I would tell Obama to go stuff it.


Call the vote for Friday and tell the White House to get their own votes - give them the package they asked for and tell Obama - you are such a hot-shot - going around the country for 2 years telling everyone what you could accomplish in Washington.


But really all Obama has done is dump all the hard work on Nancy's doorstep.


Tell Obama to go pound salt - Tell Obama to get his own votes.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 13, 2010 12:33 AM | Report abuse

It is entirely possible that Nancy and Steny have had enough of this whole thing.


Obama and the White House have been in fantasyland for the past month -


And all they have been doing is telling Nancy and Steny to pass a bill when it will put at risk the ENTIRE HOUSE LEADERSHIP - AND MANY HOUSE DEMOCRATIC SEATS.


Public opinion - Obama doesn't care about it.


It is entirely possible that Nancy is just going to call a vote - without having the votes - just to get it over with - just to finish it off.

Obama deserves it.

Think about it - if you were Speaker - and putting up with everything Obama has thrown at the House over the past year - and then Obama pulled what he has pulled over the past month - that bogus health care summit which was more like a lecture on what Obama wanted.


I would tell Obama to go stuff it.


Call the vote for Friday and tell the White House to get their own votes - give them the package they asked for and tell Obama - you are such a hot-shot - going around the country for 2 years telling everyone what you could accomplish in Washington.


But really all Obama has done is dump all the hard work on Nancy's doorstep.


Tell Obama to go pound salt - Tell Obama to get his own votes.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 13, 2010 12:33 AM | Report abuse

It is entirely possible that Nancy and Steny have had enough of this whole thing.


Obama and the White House have been in fantasyland for the past month -


And all they have been doing is telling Nancy and Steny to pass a bill when it will put at risk the ENTIRE HOUSE LEADERSHIP - AND MANY HOUSE DEMOCRATIC SEATS.


Public opinion - Obama doesn't care about it.


It is entirely possible that Nancy is just going to call a vote - without having the votes - just to get it over with - just to finish it off.

Obama deserves it.

Think about it - if you were Speaker - and putting up with everything Obama has thrown at the House over the past year - and then Obama pulled what he has pulled over the past month - that bogus health care summit which was more like a lecture on what Obama wanted.


I would tell Obama to go stuff it.


Call the vote for Friday and tell the White House to get their own votes - give them the package they asked for and tell Obama - you are such a hot-shot - going around the country for 2 years telling everyone what you could accomplish in Washington.


But really all Obama has done is dump all the hard work on Nancy's doorstep.


Tell Obama to go pound salt - Tell Obama to get his own votes.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 13, 2010 12:33 AM | Report abuse

hey,
I figured you would get that.

Posted by: shrink2 | March 13, 2010 12:14 AM | Report abuse

Chris, do you think the entrance of Murray Hill in the MD-8 Republican primary? (Van Hollen's district)

Seems like a game changer, no?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/12/AR2010031204127.html?hpid=topnews

Posted by: DDAWD | March 13, 2010 12:10 AM | Report abuse

Nancy and Steny are moving forward without the votes - it sort of sounds like how this entire health care bill process has been - they pass a version of the bill in committee or even in the Chambers - and they say, "don't worry, this is not the final version of the bill."

Always implying that the final version will be much better.

Now they are preparing the final bill - but now it is "take it or leave it" - no negotiations about anything - any provision - no amendments at all.

Sure sounds like the free trade deal "fast track" votes - the ones that have practically destroyed the US economy.

Anyway, looks like Nancy and Steny are putting together the bill - and they DON'T have the votes. They are just going to sit there and present it to the members - and they are going to be 10 votes short on Thursday night.

At that point, they are going to call Obama - and say "It's your problem now."


The whole thing just has the sense that the democrats are moving forward - ignoring a reality in front of them - the piece from Caddell and Schoen was telling - they said the democrats lose either way.

The democrats will be better off if they health care bill fails.

Maybe that is what Nancy and Steny really want at this point - they want the bil to fail.

Maybe Nancy and Steny are going to tell the members at the last minute that they can vote against the bill - so 100 members have the opportunity to register a NO vote before the fall elections.

They can pass a much less expensive version of the health care bill that the Republicans like.


Or they can wait until next year when the Republicans are much stronger - and have real negotiations which produce a bill which will have real widespread bipartisan support.


That would ensure that any new programs don't get repealed or de-funded in the future.

Marching forward at this point - calling a for a vote on Friday or Saturday even though they Don't have the votes - and the path ahead is difficult - there must be some other reasoning at work right now.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 13, 2010 12:09 AM | Report abuse

Looks like Nancy does not have the votes - it appears that the 14 potential switch votes are dwindling - Nancy needs at least 7 to switch in order to save the bill.


However that 14 is now down to 12.

And Stupak probably has 10. So it is really tight. All is needed now is a block of 5 0r 6 democrats to get together and announce they are firm "no"s and that is it.


It is pretty close to being out of reach.

In addition, now the Hispanic members appear to be making noise - they might be looking to make some sort of deal - however it is breaking out to be even more problems - rather than momentum in the right direction for Nancy.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 12, 2010 10:08 PM | Report abuse

Cat Fight in Delaware

Looks like the Delaware GOP has a big time Cat Fight. Michele Rollins vs. Rose Izzo. The top billing Primary Election Bout of the year. "First State battle for First Woman to Congress" or
Money Bags (Rollins) vs. NRA Rosie (Izzo)
Miss Spender (Rollins) vs. Miss Saver (Izzo)
Miss 1963 beauty queen (Rollins) vs. Miss Conservative 2010 (Izzo)

Or the best Tag Team event of All Time
Castle/Rollins vs. O'Donnell/Izzo

Old & Crusty vs. Two Hot Mommas
The Earmark Duo vs. The No Backroom Deal Twins
Cap & Trade vs. Cagney and Lacey
Rich & Richer vs. ShopRite & Save-A-lot

Lets hear it for the regular girls...

http://www.roseizzoforcongress.com/

Posted by: FanOfRoseIzzo | March 12, 2010 10:07 PM | Report abuse

Wond’ring aloud
Will a son one day be born
To share in our infancy
In this child’s path we’ve worn
 
In the aging seclusion
Of this earth
That our birth did surprise
Will open his eyes.

Posted by: Noacoler | March 12, 2010 9:57 PM | Report abuse

"...I'm tasting the smell
of toast as the butter runs.

Then she comes,
spilling crumbs on the bed
and I shake my head.

And it's only the giving
that makes you what you are."

Posted by: shrink2 | March 12, 2010 9:39 PM | Report abuse

leichtman1


The Texas School Book discussions should all be settled by cage-match.


I would love to see each time, a paragraph is up for dispute, each side picks a "champion" - and they go at it in a cage.


This would make the whole discussion much more interesting, and the tv ratings for each issue would be dramatically higher.

That would be great......

In this corner, fighting for church and state is Linda Lavender - in the other corner, for eliminating any reference to the founding fathers being deists, is Hulk Hottie.

In this corner, fighting for the inclusion of five pages on black history, is Queen LaLander - in this corner, fighting for 3 pages of union history, is Factory Joe.


In this corner, fighting for the Bill of Rights, is AC Love U - in this corner, fighting for the Dred Scott decision is Justice Marshall.


HAAA.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 12, 2010 9:17 PM | Report abuse

"The election of Bill White in Nov. I predict will be the talk of this political site in Nov."

Thank you, Texas matters, that is for sure. Good people take care of each other, bad people only look out at themselves, lets hope for the best.

Posted by: shrink2 | March 12, 2010 9:14 PM | Report abuse

@leichtman: I remember that Katrina invitation and yeah that rocked.

Almost as much as Walmart relocating all those employees whose homes were lost, that was generosity from a most unexpected quarter.

Posted by: Noacoler | March 12, 2010 9:02 PM | Report abuse

"What is it about Texas that makes all of them so proud of Texas?"

I think you saw the best of Texas and Houston when Mayor Bill White opened our community and brought in millions from the business community and charities to help the 100,000 Katrina transplants to start a new life as proud Texans. Houston and Texas has always thought of ourselves as the Can Do community when Roy Hofeinz was told that it was impossible to build a domed stadium. Texans are good people and precisely why they will see that virtue with Governor Bill White. Our high highschool drop out rate is a big issue in our gubenatorial election and especially with those in south Texas who want to see a better life for their children. Perry will yap about Washington politics. Texans will be more concerned with what is broken in Austin and with our school system. The election of Bill White in Nov. I predict will be the talk of this political site in Nov.

Posted by: leichtman1 | March 12, 2010 8:56 PM | Report abuse

I think 37th is getting close to a final meltdown.

Posted by: Noacoler | March 12, 2010 8:32 PM | Report abuse

Broad____joe


You are like a little rat, who runs away every time you see me.


,

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 12, 2010 8:28 PM | Report abuse

leichtman1


The Texas School Book discussions should all be settled by cage-match.


I would love to see each time, a paragraph is up for dispute, each side picks a "champion" - and they go at it in a cage.


This would make the whole discussion much more interesting, and the tv ratings for each issue would be dramatically higher.

That would be great......

In this corner, fighting for church and state is Linda Lavender - in the other corner, for eliminating any reference to the founding fathers being deists, is Hulk Hottie.

In this corner, fighting for the inclusion of five pages on black history, is Queen LaLander - in this corner, fighting for 3 pages of union history, is Factory Joe.


In this corner, fighting for the Bill of Rights, is AC Love U - in this corner, fighting for the Dred Scott decision is Justice Marshall.


HAAA.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 12, 2010 8:15 PM | Report abuse

ON Obama postponing his Indonesian family trip:


Pelosi said, "I am delighted the president will be here .........

SO OBAMA CAN TAKE THE BLAME.

.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 12, 2010 8:04 PM | Report abuse

broad____joe

Who are you going to get to change their votes???

Jason Altmire, Bart Gordon, Glenn Nye, Brian Baird, John Tanner, Rick Boucher, Allen Boyd, John Boccieri, Suzanne Kosmas, Betsy Markey, John Adler, Scott Murphy, Lincoln Davis, Jim Matheson.


Who is going to take the "Obama Death March" ????


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 12, 2010 7:57 PM | Report abuse

When Waxman says he does NOT want to change federal law on abortion - and then the Senate bill changes the law - why are they lying to the country???


What is wrong with these people??


Why can't they just be honest ????

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 12, 2010 7:56 PM | Report abuse

In California, the one two punch of Gavin Newsom, soon to be Lt. Governor and Jerry Brown will send a wake up call to Republicans: (1) all politics are local and (2) the TEA thing is over. People don't want revolutions, they want politicians who can work together.

Posted by: shrink2 | March 12, 2010 1:41 PM
________________

s2, you're in violation. That doesn't fit this space's Dems-in-trouble/GOP-comeback bogus narrative. You've been warned. :)

Posted by: broadwayjoe | March 12, 2010 7:44 PM | Report abuse

Sorry to have had the brain flatulence, putting the legislature up there for ridicule instead of the school board. But is the rest of it true?

Not whether this goon squad is taxpayer funded, I know that, but is the state really at the bottom of national HS graduation rates? I heard that they are at the top of HS pregnancy rates. When you say, "Nothing is sacred..." it seems like that is not a sentiment shared by a lot of Texans.

One thing is certain, Texans are very proud of themselves as Texans. You say we are better than that, we are not yokels and so on. What is it about Texas that makes all of them so proud of Texas?

We don't see that in lots of states, big and small. People from Florida or California or New Jersey for examples, seem almost embarrassed to state their provenance.


Posted by: shrink2 | March 12, 2010 6:58 PM | Report abuse

Since he still has that old passport, I am sure there will be no problem at Customs.

Posted by: drivl | March 12, 2010 6:58 PM | Report abuse

no problem, its ok to correct my typos.
My point was that Texas voted out Cynthia Dunbar and Don McElroy the folks responsible for these textbook changes. It is truly insane that something as non political as what we should be teaching our children has become nothing more than another political food fight by the right. Nothing is sacred any more with them not even our education system and subject to political spin. Perhaps this is precisely why so many in our country are absolutely sick of what has happened with our political system and choose to simply not participate but these folks are not representative of Texas; we are better then that.

Posted by: leichtman1 | March 12, 2010 6:37 PM | Report abuse

"yokels"

(ducking)

Posted by: Noacoler | March 12, 2010 6:09 PM | Report abuse

"By the way did you hear? Texas, the state with one of the worst public school systems in the country, measured in terms of graduation rate, has passed a law changing the textbook name of capitalism to the free enterprise system"

no the legislature did not pass a law as you posted; they are not even in session. It was a ruling by our whacko State Bd of Education, most members including the architect of these changes to our textbooks were voted out a few weeks ago by state voters. With any luck the Gov who praises these loons will next be voted out in Nov. due to our high hs dropout rate, fyi we are not all a bunch of yokles.

Posted by: leichtman1 | March 12, 2010 6:00 PM | Report abuse

"By the way did you hear? Texas, the state with one of the worst public school systems in the country, measured in terms of graduation rate, has passed a law changing the textbook name of capitalism to the free enterprise system"

no the legislature did not pass a law as you posted; they are not even in session. It was a ruling by our whacko State Bd of Education, most members including the architect of these changes to our textbooks were voted out a few weeks ago by state voters. With any luck the Gov who praises these loons will next be voted out in Nov. due to our high hs dropout rate, fyi we are not all a bunch of yokles.

Posted by: leichtman1 | March 12, 2010 6:00 PM | Report abuse

Long as we're about it can we change "free markets" back to the old name? Feudalism?

Posted by: Noacoler | March 12, 2010 4:50 PM | Report abuse

More good news!

"Ms. Pelosi said House Democrats were happy that a proposed overhaul of student loan programs would also be attached to the package."

Another oasis of taxpayer money for corporate predators dries up.

By the way did you hear? Texas, the state with one of the worst public school systems in the country, measured in terms of graduation rate, has passed a law changing the textbook name of capitalism to the free enterprise system. Another example of Republican politicians putting your tax dollars to work.

Free enterprise, what a farce. What is wrong with calling capitalism capitalism? Shall we change the name of socialism to free government moneyism?

Posted by: shrink2 | March 12, 2010 4:44 PM | Report abuse

Those 5 days in May seem far away compared to five days next week.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/13/health/policy/13health.html?hp

Posted by: shrink2 | March 12, 2010 4:34 PM | Report abuse

DcRaven925 writes


Throw the Confederacy out of the equation and Obama's popularity is fine.


___________________________________

Except for New Jersey and Massachusetts

And everyone else who is sick of Obama.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 12, 2010 4:27 PM | Report abuse

ON Obama postponing his Indonesian family trip:

Pelosi said, "I am delighted the president will be here .........


SO OBAMA CAN TAKE THE BLAME.

.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 12, 2010 4:24 PM | Report abuse

Nancy Pelosi is negotiating out the "fixes" - the reconciliation bill with the Senators - but that is really the liberals in the House negotiating with the democratic Senators.


It is something else that is the problem.

It is the moderate democrats in the House that is the problem.

There is alot going on


The whole thing is going to collapse - they are just going through the motions - Obama might as well re-schedule his vacation for FANTASYLAND.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 12, 2010 4:22 PM | Report abuse

The Hawaii First is not Obama's home district. He has lived in Chicago for a long time and his official residence is in the Hyde Park/Kenwood neighborhood of Chicago. That's either Jackson's first or Rush's second district.

Claiming the Hawaii first is a little like arguing that Hillary Clinton comes from whatever Congressional District covers Park Ridge, Illinois.

The only people that want to claim it as Obama's home district are those Republicans that either want to use this an excuse for losing it or, if they win it due to the split of the democratic vote, to claim it shows that even his "home district" is against him.

Throw the Confederacy out of the equation and Obama's popularity is fine.

Posted by: dcraven925 | March 12, 2010 4:03 PM | Report abuse

I think all American schoolchildren should be forced to watch Speaker Pelosi leave Washington on her broom. It will prove once and for all that witches really can fly.

Posted by: kenpasadena | March 12, 2010 4:02 PM | Report abuse

14 possible:

Jason Altmire, Bart Gordon, Glenn Nye, Brian Baird, John Tanner, Rick Boucher, Allen Boyd, John Boccieri, Suzanne Kosmas, Betsy Markey, John Adler, Scott Murphy, Lincoln Davis, Jim Matheson.


--------------------------------

For Nancy to switch them, they have to STEP IN FRONT OF THE SUBWAY TRAIN.


OUCH.


___________________________________


Let's be serious - how much chance is there to switch ANY of these votes ??? Not much.

Obama has been fooling himself - the reporters said there was a different feeling around the White House lately - yea one motivated by delusion.

Why ask these 14 people to destroy their careers - all for the sake of Obama who doesn't even belong in the position he is in now ??


Obama is being irresponsible with everyone around him.

NOW we here he wants to bring his daughters to Indonesia - to see where he grew up.

HOW MUCH IS THAT GOING TO COST THE AMERICAN TAXPAYERS ???

.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 12, 2010 4:00 PM | Report abuse

Say hello to Speaker Boehner, or will it be Speaker Cantor? Either one beats the heck out of Speaker Pelosi, although I hope it's speaker Cantor.

Posted by: reason5 | March 12, 2010 3:50 PM | Report abuse

jbowen431


Yea, that's just another way in which the Obama bill is going to cut costs right ????


This bill doesn't cut costs - it is a massive give-away to all sorts of groups.

That is a huge part of the problem: the democrats have to hold their noses just to look at it, much less vote for it.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 12, 2010 3:46 PM | Report abuse

I've thought for a while now that Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy has got her work cut out for her against a challenge from Steve Stivers -- she just barely squeaked by Stivers in the 2008 election, and as Chris noted, without the extra boost from the presidential election, she might not be able to fend off a much-beloved Republican like Stivers. Honestly, I wasn't even sure she would win in 2008. It was a Democratic wave election, sure, but then-Rep. Deborah Pryce was still very popular around this area and Stivers, then a state Senator, was enormously popular too. I can see how, looking at things through that lens, Kilroy would be in a lot of trouble in 2010, with voter turnout and Democratic popularity both sure to be lower.

I'm not as sure as I once was that she's in serious trouble, though. High Democratic turnout was one of the factors that hurt Stivers in 2008, but it wasn't the only one.

Another factor was the presence of two candidates to his right -- a Libertarian and an independent billing himself as the "real conservative" in the race. That same thing is happening this year. A Libertarian candidate and a Constitution Party candidate will be in the race as well, and there could yet be another independent as there was in 2008. All of them are going to be running to Stivers' right and could siphon votes away from him.

In addition, pretty much the only attack that stuck to Stivers in 2008 -- besides the usual "This political party is bad, vote against it" rhetoric -- was bringing up his career as a bank lobbyist. Lobbyists weren't popular in 2008, and they're fixing to be even less popular in 2010. Incumbents are going to be facing some backlash in 2010, too, but Kilroy is hardly an entrenched incumbent; she's only in her first term. On top of that, for all the generic incumbent-directed rage, people have an easier time saying "All incumbents are bad!" than actually voting against their local representative, and I've not heard a lot of bad things about Kilroy during her time in the House. Pryce (and OH-12 Rep. Pat Tiberi, who's being futilely targeted by the Democrats in this election) made a reputation not on being a Republican, but on being a representative for the folks of OH-15, and it's not unthinkable that Kilroy might be able to build some of the same momentum.

It'll be interesting watching OH-15 and OH-1, though. In both cases, a first-term Democrat is being challenged by the Republican he or she defeated in 2008. How those races turn out could be a microcosm of how races around the country turn out -- are the voters really committed to punishing Democrats, to the point that they're willing to vote in the very Republicans they rejected two years ago?

Posted by: GJonahJameson | March 12, 2010 3:24 PM | Report abuse


14 possible:

Jason Altmire, Bart Gordon, Glenn Nye, Brian Baird, John Tanner, Rick Boucher, Allen Boyd, John Boccieri, Suzanne Kosmas, Betsy Markey, John Adler, Scott Murphy, Lincoln Davis, Jim Matheson.

--------------------------------


These congressmen are "FREE AND CLEAR" - they didn't vote for the health care bill the first time - so they sort of have immunity from 30 second commercials.


For Nancy to switch them, they have to STEP IN FRONT OF THE SUBWAY TRAIN.


OUCH.

___________________________________

Let's be serious - how much chance is there to switch ANY of these votes ??? Not much.

Obama really has no idea what he is doing - and it shows - the pronouncement that they have the votes, they are going to get the votes -

All that really has NOTHING to do with the actual task of GETTING THE VOTES. There really is a "reality-disconnect" between what Obama wishes is - and what the reality is on the Hill.


It is time to pull the plug on all of this.


.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 12, 2010 3:20 PM | Report abuse

I would love to hear a representative explain to seniors how he/she cast a vote against legislation that would close the Part D Medicare do-nut hole and pay in full for preventive care.

Posted by: jbowen431 | March 12, 2010 3:20 PM | Report abuse

These elections will tell us more about the quality of the candidates than the national trends. The elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts were lost because the Dems put forth lousy candidates. In spite of the republican spin "all politics is local".

Posted by: jbowen431 | March 12, 2010 3:12 PM | Report abuse

If what Tim Carson says is true, then Washington's 8th should easily replace Hawaii's 1st.

The Ds have a great candidate and Obama broasted McCain/Palin in Washington's 8th.
It used be be the Everett to Oly conservative bedroom communities, which is why they have never sent a D to Congress before, but like I have said before, the demographics of I5 corridor population growth favor Democrats.

In '06 the incumbent, Dave Reichert just barely defeated his D opponent Burner. This time, Susan BelBene has an excellent chance to make history.

Posted by: shrink2 | March 12, 2010 2:59 PM | Report abuse

"Drindl/Drivl,

Just stop. At least try to stay on topic.

Thanks,
Chris

Posted by: Chris_Cillizza"

I agree. For both of them. Once in a while is ok, but both just clutter the place up.

Posted by: DDAWD | March 12, 2010 2:42 PM | Report abuse

Drivl? On topic? Are you on crack?

Posted by: Noacoler | March 12, 2010 2:20 PM | Report abuse

If the stakes weren't so high in the First Congressional District, it would be comical that people who do not understand Hawaii politics are only stoking the flames by giving Djou a chance in national "news". Flat out, Djou has no chance. He continues to poll way behind, has a major identity problem (Inviting Karl Rove to Hawaii? Seriously) and does not have a broad coalition of supporters (self-identified Republicans make up a very small portion of the voting population). Or maybe Ed Case supporters should be thanking you for continuing to note that Djou is a possibility. This will motivate Case's supporters to no end. Hanabusa has the establishment's support, which is the kiss-of-death in today's politics (Hawaii or nationally).
Thanks for the laugh though.

Posted by: carsontim | March 12, 2010 2:18 PM | Report abuse

Drindl/Drivl,

Just stop. At least try to stay on topic.

Thanks,
Chris

Posted by: Chris_Cillizza | March 12, 2010 2:18 PM | Report abuse

This is how crazy the TPers are -- crazy with hatred:

"On his radio show recently, Glenn Beck controversially warned his audience to leave churches that care about social justice:

I beg you, look for the words “social justice” or “economic justice” on your church website. If you find it, run as fast as you can. Social justice and economic justice –they are code words. Now, am I advising people to leave their church? Yes! Leave your church! … If you have a priest that is pushing social justice, go find another parish.

Leading religious figures and organizations — including from Beck’s own Mormon faith — quickly condemned the hate radio host’s remarks. The progressive Christian group Sojourners has also launched a campaign responding to Beck. Some others:

– “My own experience as a believing Latter-day Saint over the course of 60 years is that I have seen social justice in practice in every L.D.S. congregation I’ve been in. … So if that’s Beck’s definition of social justice, he and I are definitely not on the same team.” — Kent P. Jackson, associate dean of religion at Brigham Young University

– “Could Beck’s claim be construed as “anti-Catholic?” Yes and no. I think if anyone else had made the remark it would have been hard to dismiss the anti-Catholic undertones. … Still, I’m curious to see how Beck’s loyal defenders will excuse his latest outrageous remarks. If we’re not supposed to take him seriously when he says stuff like this, when exactly are we to take him seriously?” — Joe Carter, online editor at the conservative magazine First Things

– “Glenn Beck’s desire to detach social justice from the Gospel is a move to detach care for the poor from the Gospel. But a church without the poor, and a church without a desire for a just social world for all, is not the church. At least not the church of Jesus Christ. Who was, by the way, poor.” — Rev. James Martin, an editor at the Jesuit magazine America"

Posted by: drindl | March 12, 2010 2:15 PM | Report abuse

Something tells me we have 14 citizens who are suddently going to make good on those back taxes.

Posted by: drivl | March 12, 2010 2:12 PM | Report abuse

Nancy is busy wiring up hotel rooms and closets and staffing the escort services so that by this time next week, she will have a full file of film on the 14 members in question.

that should seal the deal.

Surely the queen crocodile knows where the bodies lie in her own swamp. Despite the claims of utter ignorance which, coming from her, are quite plausible.

Posted by: drivl | March 12, 2010 2:11 PM | Report abuse

the TPers are just the usual loonies calling themselves something else:

"Does it ever strike you that this raging wingnut paranoia about Obama's allegedly radical agenda is just an extension of their raging paranoia about the terrorists? The whole thing just seems like one long primal scream to me.

What do you do with people who have so worked themselves up into a frenzy that they believe something as ludicrous as this:

In a March 9, post titled, "Obama's war on fishing?!?!?!" Michelle Malkin posted the ESPN column's claim that "[t]he Obama administration will accept no more public input for a federal strategy that could prohibit U.S. citizens from fishing the nation's oceans, coastal areas, Great Lakes, and even inland waters." Malkin added, "Longtime readers know I love to fish and have been at war with the anti-fishing nuts at PETA for years."


This is a woman who wrote book about liberals called "Unhinged" and she seems to believe that the Obama administration is secretly working as an agent of Code Pink and PETA. The Obama administration. At this point, they are so off the cliff that calling him a socialist is beginning to seem restrained. I'm expecting them to claim he's literally Satan by the next election.

It's too disorienting and weird to try to address rationally. The only thing I can do is shake my head and keep my fingers crossed that these people don't ever get their fingers on the button."

Exactly. They're just paranoid nuts... simple mental illness manifested in mass hysteria.

Posted by: drindl | March 12, 2010 2:11 PM | Report abuse

14 possible:

Jason Altmire, Bart Gordon, Glenn Nye, Brian Baird, John Tanner, Rick Boucher, Allen Boyd, John Boccieri, Suzanne Kosmas, Betsy Markey, John Adler, Scott Murphy, Lincoln Davis, Jim Matheson.


--------------------------------

These congressmen are "FREE AND CLEAR" - they didn't vote for the health care bill the first time - so they sort of have immunity from 30 second commercials.


For Nancy to switch them, they have to STEP IN FRONT OF THE SUBWAY TRAIN.

OUCH.

If Stupak has 12, Nancy has to switch 12 of the 14 just to stay even.

If Nancy loses anyone else, let's say 5 of the 17 who voted yes and who now want to vote no - in that situation, Nancy really has run out of possibilities for additional votes.

Why would they want to jump in front of a train ????


Nancy and Steny are probably happy they have a deadline - so they can have an opportunity next week to PULL THE PLUG - SAY THEY DON'T HAVE THE VOTES - AND JUST PUT AN END TO THE WHOLE DEBACLE.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 12, 2010 2:07 PM | Report abuse

Damn right they're nit going anywhere... except by attrition. The permanent kind.

Posted by: Noacoler


clearly not a Stanford "man". I hear she did graduate from a local community college in seven years, without stopping though. A major feat for someone so unnaturally ungifted. no chance of graduate school, obviously.

but his mom is always telling him how smart he is. He is like the daughter she never had. too bad about the grandkids though. Natch. God works in clever ways, that is in a Darwin fashion.

Posted by: drivl | March 12, 2010 2:06 PM | Report abuse

Oh yeah well two of my four brothers graduated from Georgetown so you should be nice to me (the others, one from Calhoun College and my kid bro, the U of Spoiled Children).

Posted by: shrink2 | March 12, 2010 2:02 PM | Report abuse

In other NEWS, it appears that James Brown is FREE.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 12, 2010 2:00 PM | Report abuse

Damn right they're nit going anywhere... except by attrition. The permanent kind.

Posted by: Noacoler | March 12, 2010 2:00 PM | Report abuse

shrink2


The tea party people were always there - and they aren't going anywhere - everyone knows who they are.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 12, 2010 1:57 PM | Report abuse

Here is the list of 17 that the democrats have to hold - they haven't said they are going to vote yes - and it sure looks like they would rather vote no.

Here are the 17


Mike Arcuri, Zack Space, Chris Carney, Mike Doyle, Paul Kanjorski, Ann Kirkpatrick, Alan Mollohan, Nick Rahall, Dan Maffei, Bill Owens, John Spratt, Dennis Cardoza, James Oberstar, Baron Hill, Solomon Ortiz, Gabrielle Giffords, Earl Pomeroy.

.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 12, 2010 1:54 PM | Report abuse

Here are the potential 14 switches from no to yes


It is telling that Nancy actually needs to switch votes from no to yes.


They went backwards.


14 possible:

Jason Altmire, Bart Gordon, Glenn Nye, Brian Baird, John Tanner, Rick Boucher, Allen Boyd, John Boccieri, Suzanne Kosmas, Betsy Markey, John Adler, Scott Murphy, Lincoln Davis, Jim Matheson.

.
.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 12, 2010 1:52 PM | Report abuse

Opportunities AHEAD!!!

For the majority of us not addicted to either extremist political drug, upcoming elections offer a sensational chance to begin the reform of both our political parties.
As we've clearly seen, when a party is particularly harshly repudiated, like the RepubliKKKans were nationally, they descend into the depths of denial and invariably loose their most extreme supporters on us all. Refusing to learn, we're treated to real stupidity as the party leadership attempts to prove that they lost because they weren't EXTREME enough, NOT BECAUSE THEIR IDEAS FAILED.
Neither liberal/progressive nor KKKonservative/fascist is immune from this diseased thinking.

BUT, neither party changes and that's pretty much why we're where we are today.

So, how about not-so-gently encouraging these stubborn dimwits to rethink...what might happen if not a SINGLE incumbent was re-elected for the next three election cycles?

Only a few votes are necessary to change the outcome of almost every contest...so, please,
WORK AND VOTE AGAINST EVERY INCUMBENT YOU CAN, WHENEVER YOU CAN.

Or, do you approve of the ethical disabilities, the corruption, the lies, the mismanagement, and the really awful representation you have today...after all, it IS OUR country, not the RNC/DNC's..

Posted by: bgreen2224 | March 12, 2010 1:49 PM | Report abuse

"...when the Vikings dotted Greenland..."

My ancestors!

And speaking of Vikings, for those who live by the doctrine: Never Forget, this is an outrage.

I think the UN needs to investigate this atrocity and bring those responsible to justice. Post-humorous prosecutions are valuable for the healing process and a to send a message to those who would consider extra-judicial killing.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/dorset/8563377.stm

Posted by: shrink2 | March 12, 2010 1:49 PM | Report abuse

No doubt Peloony and Reid (aka granny clampett) are now calling the Repubs office of opposition research to try and dig up some dirt on their own colleagues.

It will be hard for Nancy though, the one who called to drain the swamp, when she is the queen crocodile. Harry is simply a spineless loser so there are really no expectations on him.

Posted by: drivl | March 12, 2010 1:43 PM | Report abuse

In California, the one two punch of Gavin Newsom, soon to be Lt. Governor and Jerry Brown will send a wake up call to Republicans: (1) all politics are local and (2) the TEA thing is over. People don't want revolutions, they want politicians who can work together.

Posted by: shrink2 | March 12, 2010 1:41 PM | Report abuse

There's probably 40 - 55 districts in play - everyone wants the democrats out.


.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 12, 2010 1:36 PM | Report abuse

Obama's home district is Hyde Park - in Chicago - it is Bobby Rush's district.

.

Posted by: 37thand0street | March 12, 2010 1:28 PM | Report abuse

I watch the hawaii race closely. Djou appears to be overrated by the national media. Case has a much higher voter recognition and polls have shown a decisive lead by Case over both Hanabusa and Djou. Hanabusa has the establishment backing but in this climate, the establishment might be a handicap instead of a boost. Her numbers are dismal as well. Case should emerge victorious on May 22nd.

Posted by: happyhawaii | March 12, 2010 1:27 PM | Report abuse

All gerrrymandered districts are not created equal - and to draw national conclusions from a random group of gerrymandered districts is probably a wrong approach.


.

.

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Posted by: 37thand0street | March 12, 2010 1:24 PM | Report abuse

drivel in, drivel out.

posting maniacally every two minutes. such a fabulous career!

Posted by: drindl | March 12, 2010 1:24 PM | Report abuse

Caution, Liberal "truths" ahead:

The doctrine of man-made climate change bears no similarity to a religious dogma, complete with its true believers, defenders of the faith, suppression of dissent and search for heretics.

And there has never been a warming period like this one, especially in the late middle ages when the Vikings dotted Greenland with agricultural colonies.

The recession now slowly lifting was another Great Depression and not your classic financial panic.

The way to get more of something is to tax it. Raise the capital gains tax and the result will be more capital. Raise the taxes on the oil industry (be sure to call it a Windfall Profits tax) and the result will be more -- and cheaper! -- oil and gas. Tax amazing new medical devices more, and even more of them will be developed.

The way to keep Iran from developing nuclear weapons is to extend an open hand to its dictators, theocrats and fanatics. Much the way North Korea's Kim Jong-Il was dissuaded from developing and exploding his nukes. Appeasement always works.

Barack Obama means it when he says the country "can't continue to spend ... as if the hard-earned tax dollars of the American people can be treated like Monopoly money." This was just days after Congress voted to raise the legal debt limit by some $290 billion in order to accommodate his $800-billion economic stimulus bill and record-breaking $3.5 trillion budget.

Posted by: drivl | March 12, 2010 1:17 PM | Report abuse

Thanks DDAWD, that explains a lot.

Posted by: AndyR3 | March 12, 2010 1:13 PM | Report abuse

As a result of Saddam’s removal, and the success of the subsequent democracy, Iran is looking not just at a free Iraq, but also at a semi-autonomous, prosperous, and pro-Western Kurdistan, and a Lebanon without Syrian occupation troops. In the short term, Iran must also weigh in the fact that there are hundreds of American aircraft just across the border in Iraq — basing that would have been impossible under Saddam. And whereas a few years ago Iran was threatening Israel, hand in glove with Saddam Hussein, who was subsidizing the families of suicide bombers on the West Bank, today Iraq is not fueling unrest in the Middle East. If anything it may be, along with Saudi Arabia and Jordan, secretly not upset that Israel might address the ominous Iranian nuclear facilities.

But now the Obama “reset” policy has itself seemingly been reset. Recently Vice President Biden — of “trisect Iraq” fame — predicted that Iraq would become one of the administration’s “greatest achievements.” And soon afterward, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton all but confessed that the much-ballyhooed Obama policy of reaching out to the theocracy with diplomacy, videos, and personal letters, while keeping mum about its brutal crackdown on dissidents, was a failure.It is disturbing that Secretary Clinton did not appreciate the long, pernicious history of the Revolutionary Guards’ influence inside Iran and their cozy relationship with many in the theocratic elite; but at least she can now, at last, cite some “unforeseen” development that may allow her to backtrack on the administration’s disastrous policy of appeasing Iran.

summary - the Bush doctrine worked magnificently.

Obama appeasement and engagement was an utter failure.

Posted by: drivl | March 12, 2010 1:09 PM | Report abuse

The use of Saddam Hussein as a proper balance to Iran was always an atrocious idea — and it is bizarre to hear critics of the war cite post facto his obscene government as a once-necessary check on the Iranian theocracy. Given Saddam’s genocidal policies, and America’s war against him in 1990–91, there was no way that the United States should ever again have used his dictatorship to thwart Iran’s. And while the present democratic government of Iraq is dominated by Shiites — logically, given demographic realities — it is not true that they are all pro-Iranian Muslims who have forfeited their Iraqi identities. In time, a stable democratic Iraq may be one of the very few mechanisms by which Iranian regional influence can be checked.

That is why Iran for the last five years has done its best to destroy Iraqi democracy, by supplying money and weapons to cross-border terrorists. Yet Iraq has survived, and it is now slowly proving subversive to Iran, albeit in quite a different manner — by reminding Iran’s uneasy Shiite population that free elections are not incompatible with their religion, as they can now readily see from the free, uncensored media across the border. The percentage of Iraqis who turned out for this round of voting was greater than the percentage of Americans who turned out for our landmark election of 2008.

Posted by: drivl | March 12, 2010 1:07 PM | Report abuse

Establishment GOP candidates across the country backed by the National Republican Senatorial Committee are struggling to gain grassroots traction over their primary challengers, with conservative darlings like Marco Rubio surging. It's a split illustrating the deep divisions in the Republican party as it seems Washington's establishment miscalculated who would be the better candidates from California to Florida.

Rubio is the best example, as Florida Gov. Charlie Crist's support - especially among Republicans - has plunged this year. That's one reason why NRSC Chairman John Cornyn is singing Rubio's praises and promising not to bash him despite backing Crist as the early favorite to win the open seat in the Sunshine State.

Sen. Jim DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund has taken the lead to blatantly challenge Cornyn's candidates in California, Texas, Florida and Pennsylvania. After Republican divisions threw a wrench into the special election for New York's 23rd Congressional district last fall, the NRSC announced they wouldn't get involved in or spend money in these contested primaries.

"The rules have changed and the political ground has shifted under the feet of the establishment and they are still trying to get their footing," Mike Connolly of the conservative Club for Growth told me in an interview today. The group was backing outsider candidates before it was cool, encouraging contested primaries by running Pat Toomey (R-PA) against Sen. Arlen Specter in 2004.

Posted by: drindl | March 12, 2010 12:53 PM | Report abuse

AndyR3, I was at one of Congressman Cao's town hall meetings last summer. For the most part, he is very supportive of Obama's agenda. In terms of health care reform, he was pretty indifferent to most of it, he was willing to just go along with Obama. Perhaps indifferent is the wrong word. Ambivalent is probably more accurate. He just wanted to support Obama. The one issue he did take a firm stand on?

Abortion. He said that he would not vote for a bill that expanded abortion and was pretty staunch on that. The last I've heard, he isn't planning on voting for the Senate bill since there's no Stupak equivalent in there. Yeah, the Senate bill isn't really expanding abortion, but he thinks it is.

And I do think this is a principled stand. It's not like he's adopting a whole bunch of Republican talking points and positions. So I don't think he is going to vote for the bill.

And we already tried to convince him to switch parties. He doesn't want to. I'm not sure why, actually. He doesn't seem to have much loyalty towards the leadership. He's in a tough spot, though since he is a liberal Republican but more conservative than the district.

I think I'm going to vote for him if he votes for the bill. I know that we can do better in terms of the liberal-conservative scale, but the health care issue is important to me and I want to reward him if he votes for it. Plus, he's a very good guy.

Posted by: DDAWD | March 12, 2010 12:41 PM | Report abuse

Dems still looking for as many as 10 votes to pass healthcare in the House

Call the House pole vaulter.

Posted by: drivl | March 12, 2010 12:38 PM | Report abuse

Barack Obama is a resident of Illinois, not Hawaii. His home district is thus either the Illinois 1st or 2nd.

Posted by: nealallen1 | March 12, 2010 11:21 AM
_________

Let's not confuse the "News & Analysis" with facts.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | March 12, 2010 12:38 PM | Report abuse

Three (3) checks:

Dems-in-trouble bogus narrative. Check

GOP-comeback bogus narrative. Check.

No positive mention of the 44th President of the United States. Check.

[To be fair, the good news is: no free ads for Charlie Cook, GOP candidates, or anti-BHO agendas, e.g., anti-health care reform.]

Posted by: broadwayjoe | March 12, 2010 12:35 PM | Report abuse

oil companies booming -- naturally.

dribbl seems to be totally unaware of the recent rise in the market, due to the realization that Obumbler and company will be thrown to the curb in november and socialism is dead.

you can bet that Ped knows it, because his plan to horde gold under his bridge in the troll like fashion has been demolished by the mystery and magic that is capitalism. too curious for his imbecilic mind, he is now not quick enough to know how to recover from the drop in commodity price.

I just hope jake doesn't send that anonymous email to his employer pointing out the activities he doesn't do on the job and the erratic ones off the job.
for someone who prides themselves on getting others fired for thought crimes, it would be a just dessert.

Posted by: drivl | March 12, 2010 12:25 PM | Report abuse

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's wife and daughter were in a serious car accident Thursday afternoon on Interstate 95 in Fairfax County, and police said they were treated at an area hospital for non-life threatening injuries.


I hope they get better fast.

Good thing this happened before Obamacare set in.

---

Yeah, otherwise they might have to go to Canada like the Palins.

Posted by: JakeD3 | March 12, 2010 12:23 PM | Report abuse

The only way sluggish Republican fund raising is going to improve is if someone pours a little table salt on Michael Steele. No one takes him seriously.

Why can't the RNC replace him? Sure a 2/3 vote is required, but since corporate money is now protected speech and since we know (from this site) that the whole country is seething with rage at the Democrats and would do anything to support the Republican Rising!...there is only one possible reason for the RNC fund raising issue.

Karl Rove is proud of his administration's torture policy, but he was right about Michael Steele.

Meanwhile, our Georgetown undergrad is out nursing his hangover so its much easier to read what the smart people said. Some of those Hoya victory parties were all nighters, no doubt.

Posted by: shrink2 | March 12, 2010 12:14 PM | Report abuse

I think Rep Cao should switch to being a Democrat and then vote for Healthcare reform. Party swithcing happens all the time in the Bayou State so this is definitly in the realm of possibilities.

I do think its funny that everyone talks about how the GOP is going to gain 50 seats blah blah. But two of the top three districts most likely to switch party are Red.

Posted by: AndyR3 | March 12, 2010 12:03 PM | Report abuse

I think the Hawaii election won't resonate nearly as much as the loss of Murtha's seat would. The fact that the Democrats may split the vote is the only reason this is even on the list. I think what you'll see is the President make some mild endorsement of one of the candidates and they will come out on top.

Posted by: AndyR3 | March 12, 2010 11:54 AM | Report abuse

drivl in, drivl out.

Posted by: hoser3 | March 12, 2010 11:54 AM | Report abuse

That Hawaii situation is ridiculous. How could anyone think it's a good idea to have a winner-take-all election with multiple candidates from a single party? If one of the Democrats doesn't withdraw from the race, they're both likely to lose.

It's equally ridiculous to think that the special election in Hawaii says anything about the national environment. Even if the majority votes for a Democrat, the Republican can win. You can't draw any conclusions from such a strange election.

Posted by: Blarg | March 12, 2010 11:52 AM | Report abuse

"Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's wife and daughter were in a serious car accident Thursday afternoon on Interstate 95 in Fairfax County, and police said they were treated at an area hospital for non-life threatening injuries.'

Good thing this happened before Obamacare set in."

You are disgusting. What an abortion your 'life' is. Too bad your mmother didn't figure it out sooner. Bet she's sorry now.

Posted by: drindl | March 12, 2010 11:35 AM | Report abuse

oil companies booming -- naturally. And note what Iraq war was all about -- oil. Surprise? Nah.

"Exxon, the world's largest publicly traded oil company, also said it had completed initial tests at Iraq's West Qurna field, where it won a 60 percent stake in the field that is estimated to have 8.7 billion barrels of reserves. It gave no additional details.

The oil giant, which is expected to close on a planned purchase of U.S. natural gas producer XTO Energy later this year, stuck to its range of capital spending between $25 billion and $30 billion through 2014.

"Our capital spending plans have largely been unaffected by the global recession," CEO Rex Tillerson told analysts at a presentation at the New York Stock Exchange. "We plan and execute on the basis that ours is truly a long-term business."

Exxon's shares rose 0.3 percent to $67.39 in early trading on the New York Stock Exchange.'

Posted by: drindl | March 12, 2010 11:33 AM | Report abuse

By Howell Raines
Sunday, March 14, 2010; B03

One question has tugged at my professional conscience throughout the year-long congressional debate over health-care reform, and it has nothing to do with the public option, portability or medical malpractice. It is this: Why haven't America's old-school news organizations blown the whistle on Roger Ailes, chief of Fox News, for using the network to conduct a propaganda campaign against the Obama administration -- a campaign without precedent in our modern political history?

Posted by: drindl | March 12, 2010 11:30 AM | Report abuse

Barack Obama is a resident of Illinois, not Hawaii. His home district is thus either the Illinois 1st or 2nd.

Posted by: nealallen1 | March 12, 2010 11:21 AM | Report abuse

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's wife and daughter were in a serious car accident Thursday afternoon on Interstate 95 in Fairfax County, and police said they were treated at an area hospital for non-life threatening injuries.


I hope they get better fast.

Good thing this happened before Obamacare set in.

Posted by: drivl | March 12, 2010 11:17 AM | Report abuse

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