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Friday Governors Line: A Waiting Game



Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.), Meg Whitman (R-Ca.), Terry McAuliffe (D-Va.), Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii) and Sam Brownback (R-Kans.)

Although there are 37 39 governorships up between now and next November, there are several major storylines yet to play out, developments that will be critical to which party is better positioned to make gains at the state level in 2010.

Friday Line

The announcement by Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) that he will vacate his office to run for Senate is one such development, creating an open seat situation in one of the country's largest states and a terrific pickup opportunity for Democrats.

What are the other narrative strands to look at in order to understand just what kind of election cycle it will be at the gubernatorial level? Here's a few developing stories to keep an eye on:

• Who wins in the Virginia Democratic primary on June 9? Conventional wisdom has it that former Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe is the favorite although the Post's endorsement of Creigh Deeds could give the state senator some momentum in Northern Virginia. If McAuliffe wins, the general election race this fall will become a huge national attention-grabber. It's already being cast by Republicans as something of a make or break election in their march back toward relevancy.

• Can Democrats land top tier candidates in red states? Both former Georgia Gov. Roy Barnes and South Dakota Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin are actively considering runs for governor in 2010 and, if both run, Democrats have an even-money shot at winning in each state. Without Barnes or Herseth, Democrats' chances are significantly reduced. National Democrats also believe they can make a serious run against Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) in 2010 but we are skeptical that Ethan Berkowitz, who lost to embattled Rep. Don Young (R) in 2008, is the same caliber candidate as Barnes or Herseth Sandlin.

• What does Tpaw do? Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) was supposed to make a final decision on whether or not to run for a third term in 2010 by next month but he announced on Thursday that he was putting off that decision until later in the summer. We have written before that Pawlenty would be crazy to run for a third term if he has any national aspirations in 2012 and the strong indication we are getting out of Minnesota is that he won't be a candidate for reelection in 2010. If he does vacate the seat, this is a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats in a Midwestern state where they have made significant gains over the past few elections.

Until these scenarios -- and several others around the country just like them -- play out, handicapping the 2010 gubernatorial field is tough. But, the Fix doesn't make the big bucks for nothing so below you'll find our list of the ten races most likely to switch party control between now and next November.

As always, the number one ranked race is the most likely to switch sides. Critiques? Kudos? The comments section is open for business.

To the Line!

Moving off the Line: New Jersey
Moving on the Line: Florida

10. Virginia (D): Historical patterns in the Commonwealth don't look great for Democrats. During Bill Clinton's eight years as president, Virginians elected George Allen and Jim Gilmore governor. George W. Bush's two terms in the White House produced Mark Warner and Tim Kaine. Polling suggests that trend will reassert itself this fall as state Attorney General Bob McDonnell (R) leads any of the three Democratic candidates. This race will close once Democrats turn their fire onto McDonnell full time but Republicans have to fee pretty good about where today. (Previous ranking: 8)

9. Michigan (D): It's a testament to the number of competitive governors races across the country that the Wolverine State contest is this low on the Line. Republicans have a crowded but well-stocked field -- from state Attorney General Mike Cox, who formally joined the race this week, to businessman Rick Snyder who is getting good reviews from the business community. Republicans desperately need to show viability in a Midwestern, manufacturing-heavy state if they want to have any chance in 2012 against President Obama, and, today, Michigan looks like their best chance. (Previous ranking: 7)

8. California (R): The Republican party establishment is rapidly lining up behind former eBay president Meg Whitman -- House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (Va.) yesterday, Arizona Sen. John McCain today -- in the belief that if she is the nominee in a state as big as California she has the potential to begin the re-branding of the party nationally. Whitman's willingness to spends gobs of her own money make her someone to be taken seriously even though California is a state that heavily favors Democrats at the statewide level. From a political junkie perspective, we are really looking forward to the Democratic primary between state Attorney General Jerry Brown and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom -- a great contrast in styles. (Previous ranking: 5)

7. Florida (R): Crist's Senate bid creates a golden pickup opportunity for Democrats in a huge state on the eve of a critical redistricting year. And, Democrats have rallied behind state CFO Alex Sink who even Republicans acknowledge will be a very strong candidate. Polling shows Sink and state Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) running neck and neck but McCollum is not the most charismatic candidate -- as evidenced by his two past statewide losses. Democrats have every reason to feel good here. (Previous ranking: N/A)

6. Tennessee (D): Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) was an electoral phenomenon unto himself in the Volunteer State and as his eight years comes to an end, the bench to replace him is extremely thin. The candidate with the most name identification is probably Mike McWherter, the son of the former Gov. Ned Ray McWherter. The Republican field is far stronger with Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam, Rep. Zach Wamp and Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsay all running hard. Haslam is the favorite in the primary and the general election. (Previous ranking: 6)

5. Hawaii (R): Looking at our last Line, this open seat race was way out of whack. No matter how strong a candidate Republicans believe Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona to be, the simple fact is that Hawaii is among the most Democratic states in the country and is coming off eight years of GOP control of the governor's mansion. The Democratic field, too, is strong with Rep. Neil Abercrombie in the race and Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann still looking at it. (Previous ranking: 10)

4. Oklahoma (D): National Republicans failed to convince former Rep. J.C. Watts (R) to run but still hold the upper hand in the Sooner State. Rep. Mary Fallin now seems likely to be the Republican nominee while Democrats are headed for a primary between Lt. Gov. Jari Askins and state Attorney General Drew Edmondson. It's hard to see the state that gave Obama his lowest percentage in the 2008 putting a Democrat in as its next governor. (Previous ranking: 4)

3. Nevada (R): Gov. Jim Gibbons is, if nothing else, good for a few laughs. His attempt to pick a fight with President Obama over the latter's comments about Las Vegas was embarrassingly transparent -- attacking Democratic president equals love from conservative base -- and drew derision rather than serious attention from the press corps. This race stays away from the top spot on the Line only because of our belief that Gibbons is headed to near-certain defeat in next year's primary. If he emerges as the GOP nominee somehow, this seat is a goner. (Previous ranking: 3)

2. Rhode Island (R): The smallest state in the country is headed toward a crowded governors race in 2010. Three statewide elected Democrats -- state Attorney General Patrick Lynch, Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts and state Treasurer Frank Caprio -- are expected to run, joining state Rep. Joe Trillo (R) and former senator Lincoln Chafee (I) in the field. The general election race seems like a fight between Chafee and whoever Democrats ultimately pick. (Previous ranking: 1)

1. Kansas (D): Gov. Mark Parkinson (D), who took over for Heath and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius earlier this year, is doing everything he can to hand the governor's mansion to Republicans in 2010. Not only has Parkinson announced he will not run for a full term next November, he chose a lieutenant governor -- Troy Findley -- who has also pledged not to run for office in 2010. Um, what? Meanwhile Sen. Sam Brownback (R) continues to run strong despite a primary challenge from Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh. To say Parkinson is handing this seat to Brownback would be an understatement. (Previous ranking: 2)

By Chris Cillizza  |  May 29, 2009; 1:02 PM ET
Categories:  The Line  
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Comments

Rest in Peace (RIP) Republicans!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! oh thanks RUSH,CHENEY,NEWT,HANNITY,BECK,O'RIELLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Norm Coleman too thanks for making the Republicans a national discrace!!!!

Posted by: mattadamsdietmanager1014 | June 1, 2009 12:18 PM | Report abuse

Maybe the RNC or the GOP should use this animal as their mascot and or role model animal.

The Blue Wildebeest has a beefy muscular front-heavy appearance with a distinctive robust muzzle, it strides with relatively slender legs and moves gracefully and quietly most of the time, belying the reputation for stampeding in herds; however the stampeding characteristic may sometimes be observed.

The Serengeti herds are purely migratory and abandon the usual plains after the rainy season has ended, in order to seek higher grasses in wetter areas. Grasslands bordering alkaline lakes or pans are particularly choice dry season (winter) habitats. Herds may be mixed gender with a dominant male, female only or bachelor only.

Blue Wildebeest often graze together with other species such as Plains zebras for purposes of mutual protection.

Zebras in particular are beneficial to co-exist with since they mow down highly vegetated areas leaving the wildebeests to eat the newly exposed and more nutritional short grasses, which is what they prefer.

A Blue Wildebeest can attain maximum a speed of up to 64 kilometres per hour (40 mph).

Blue Wildebeests are a favorite prey item to lions and spotted hyenas. They also fall prey to cheetahs, leopards, wild dogs and Nile crocodiles. The latter stalk them at river crossings.

Posted by: opp88 | May 31, 2009 5:30 PM | Report abuse

In one of my previous posts, I meant to say propositions, not initiatives.

profyle424, I wouldn't say Republicans dominate the political scene in Alabama and Mississippi. I know Democrats have a large presence in the state legislatures of those states. A lot of Southern states elect Republicans at the federal level and Democrats at the state level. Tennessee, only in 2008, saw Republicans gain control of the State House. However, a turncoat Republican colluded with the Democrats to become Speaker of the House.

Posted by: madoug | May 30, 2009 12:01 AM | Report abuse

In composing my last post, I realized I was thinking of California as already being a state with a Democratic governor. This is obviously not the case. Since it has a Republican governor, I think it deserves a place on my line. This is due to it being one of the top ten states, in my opinion, to vote in a governor of a different partisan affiliation than the current one. My updated line follows.

My Gubernatorial Line:
1. Kansas
2. Rhode Island
3. Hawaii
4. Nevada
5. Tennessee
6. Oklahoma
7. California
8. New Jersey
9. Florida
10. Michigan

Posted by: madoug | May 29, 2009 11:50 PM | Report abuse

Jake D,
In mentioning Schwarzenegger's unpopularity and how it would impact Whitman, I was thinking about them both being Republicans. Since Schwarzenegger's become unpopular and is a Republican, I think Californians would be wary in voting for another Republican governor. I admit that this logic is rather simplistic. My knowledge of California politics is very limited. I know Schwarzenegger supported some, if not all, of the initiatives and almost all of them failed. I don't know what positions Whitman took on them other than she disagreed with Tom Campbell (another Republican gubernatorial candidate) on at least one of them.

I think you think Whitman is electable because she is somewhat moderate and has a corporate pedigree so she can tout herself as a fiscal conservative. In addition to this, she can self fund. She is probably the best candidate the California Republicans could field for governor. In spite of this, I still think the Democrats should be favored to win the 2010 gubernatorial election. Unlike New Jersey, the California gubernatorial election is in 2010 and is with Congressional elections. This means its turnout rate will be higher than in New Jersey which is bad for the Republicans.

Posted by: madoug | May 29, 2009 11:36 PM | Report abuse

@zouk - Good Lord, the mighty King has noticed my humble abode. Completely misread what happened in Alexandria, but that's par for the course.

Fannon's a local in my neighborhood and one party rule isn't good anywhere. I lived in Utah--I know of what I speak. The other new councilwoman ran as independent as she works for the government (USPTO). That, of course, means that the mighty KoZ despises her.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | May 29, 2009 9:19 PM | Report abuse

"I would really like to see a top twenty or even twenty-five line, or at least a switch to most competitive rather than most likely to switch. There are so many good races, and not very many are going to be mentioned in the current setup. I would say there are only maybe ten or less right now that don't look likely to be competitive."

Well, nothing is stopping you from posting your own list! I'd like to see.

Posted by: DDAWD | May 29, 2009 9:04 PM | Report abuse

"What's the matter with Michigan? They have been an economic basket case for the last 15 years, yet they continue to elect democrats, expecting them to get the economy going. At some point, you quit feeling sorry them because they continue to vote against their economic interest."

It's weird. I'm sure he's aware that its the heavily Republican states like Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Kansas that are the most downtrodden. When guys like Karl Rove spout this kind of nonsense, he's doing it because he get's paid to be a Republican voice. But guys on here? It's like they are playing make believe that they are FOX News commentators, you know, the way we used to pretend to be Michael Jordan as little kids while playing basketball. I'm not sure what that means when someone's equivalent of that is to pretend to be Rush Limbaugh. I'm no psychologist, but I do think the services of one would be warranted.

Posted by: DDAWD | May 29, 2009 8:59 PM | Report abuse

I would really like to see a top twenty or even twenty-five line, or at least a switch to most competitive rather than most likely to switch. There are so many good races, and not very many are going to be mentioned in the current setup. I would say there are only maybe ten or less right now that don't look likely to be competitive.

Posted by: AnthonyJBrady | May 29, 2009 8:56 PM | Report abuse

"Which should be enough to nullify Prop. 13 once and for all, yet another loss for you knucklewalkers."

What's prop 13?

Posted by: DDAWD | May 29, 2009 8:53 PM | Report abuse

If no one else wants to discuss this portion of the topic (California's Governor race) that's fine with me.

==

If it was fine with you then you wouldn't be whimpering for attention over and over

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 8:53 PM | Report abuse

If no one else wants to discuss this portion of the topic (California's Governor race) that's fine with me.

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 8:34 PM | Report abuse

Poor Jake never gets any traction on his urgent need for attention.

Get used to it Jake and start looking for somewhere else to surf.

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 8:13 PM | Report abuse

"What's the matter with Michigan? They have been an economic basket case for the last 15 years, yet they continue to elect democrats, expecting them to get the economy going. At some point, you quit feeling sorry them because they continue to vote against their economic interest." -vbhoomes

Michigan had a GOP governor from 1991-2003. Get your facts straight. The automobile industry has been going south for a while because of the decline in American hegemony in sales and an outdated business model still being employed by car manufacturers. Also, if you want to feel sorry for a state, why not start with Alabama or Mississippi, the fattest, poorest, and least educated states in the country. Oh, and Republicans dominate the political scenes in those states.

Posted by: profyle424 | May 29, 2009 8:02 PM | Report abuse

Does anyone else want to discuss why Prop. 13 is going no where?

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 7:56 PM | Report abuse

California is ready to elect a fiscally-savvy Governor -- Props 1A-1E (tax increases) went down in flames on May 19th

==

Which should be enough to nullify Prop. 13 once and for all, yet another loss for you knucklewalkers.

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 7:53 PM | Report abuse

Sorry, those last two posts were for "madoug" : )

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 7:50 PM | Report abuse

theamazaingjex:

California is ready to elect a fiscally-savvy Governor -- Props 1A-1E (tax increases) went down in flames on May 19th - here's just a flavor of the mood out here.

http://www.totalrecall2009.com/

http://recalladams.org/default.aspx

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 7:47 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 7:46 PM | Report abuse

Slow down, foxy, you're using too many big words for jakey.

Posted by: jasperanselm

==

Yeah it looks like web neologisms like "lol" are about as complex as his poor little mind can handle

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 6:52 PM | Report abuse

theamazingjex:

Keep in mind that Gov. Parkinson entered Kansas politics as a Republican and served as Chairman of the Kansas Republican Party -- he switched to Democrat just so he could run with Sebelius, who he viewed as a moderate -- so, he probably does not mind Brownback taking over for him, and I wouldn't be surprised if he endorsed Brownback.

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 6:28 PM | Report abuse

Slow down, foxy, you're using too many big words for jakey.

Posted by: jasperanselm | May 29, 2009 6:28 PM | Report abuse

U.S. WEAPONIZATION OF TELECOMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM: MISSION ACCOMPLISHED?

'TARGETED' JOURNALIST THINKS SO.


See "comments" section:

http://nowpublic.com/world/gestapo-usa-govt-funded-vigilante-network-terrorizes-america

OR (if link is corrupted / disabled):

http://NowPublic.com/scrivener

Posted by: scrivener50 | May 29, 2009 6:27 PM | Report abuse

madoug:

Are you still around? What does Arnold's (un)popularity have to do with Meg Whitman? She's never been tainted by him at all. Chris is right to at least down-grade this race from 5 to 8. If Jerry Brown's the Democratic nominee, there's no way he will beat Whitman.

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 6:21 PM | Report abuse

Can't say I get your reasoning at the top of the line. Doesn't the Virginian reversal also highlight how Virginia has shifted blue, which puts history against the GOP despite the Dem woes? I can't say I see how the path to the white house runs through the Michigan governors mansion either. Given the perpetually weak economy there, the governors mansion would make a horrible bully pulpit for the GOP.

Kansas is really weird though. I would think the Dems would prioritize resisting a paleoconservative like Brownback. Maybe they really want him out of the Senate?

Posted by: theamazingjex | May 29, 2009 6:19 PM | Report abuse

You "think" you are "confident"? LOL!!!

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 6:08 PM | Report abuse

My, watch the conservative dead-enders dance trying to explain how a 2000+ loss is a measure of success.

I mean really. Why don't you just paint "stupid" on your forehead and be done with it?

Posted by: nodebris

==

Uh, their foreheads don't have room for the word, what with that heavy brow ridge

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 6:05 PM | Report abuse

My, watch the conservative dead-enders dance trying to explain how a 2000+ loss is a measure of success.

I mean really. Why don't you just paint "stupid" on your forehead and be done with it?

Posted by: nodebris | May 29, 2009 5:58 PM | Report abuse

There's a voter revolt going on, here in California at least, against incubments -- Boxer included -- so I think Whitman is positioned perfectly.

==

Given your accuracy on everything else you post about I'm confident I can say with full assurance that nobody gives a rat's a$$ what you "think"

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 5:56 PM | Report abuse

There's a voter revolt going on, here in California at least, against incubments -- Boxer included -- so I think Whitman is positioned perfectly.

==

Given your accuracy on everything else you post about I think I can say with full assurance that nobody gives a rat's ass what you "think"

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 5:55 PM | Report abuse

madoug:

What does Arnold (un)popularity have to do with Meg Whitman?! There's a voter revolt going on, here in California at least, against incubments -- Boxer included -- so I think Whitman is positioned perfectly.

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 5:46 PM | Report abuse

zouk is so unintentionall hilarious...

"typical hate filled lib ignoramus."

no self-awareness whatsoever. definitely short bus material.

Posted by: drindl

==

Yeah that one used up the irony quota through 2024 or further.

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 5:46 PM | Report abuse

I am shocked at no mention of New Jersey on The Line. Former New Jersey United States Attorney Chris Christie is almost assured of winning the primary on Tuesday (June 2nd). Christie leads the incumbent governor, Democrat Jon Corzine, in all polls in the last few months. Steve Lonegan, Christie's main challenger for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, is even leading Corzine in many polls. If Lonegan wins the primary, Corzine will likely win the general election. Christie should be favored to win the primary and the general election.

My Gubernatorial Line:
1. Kansas
2. Rhode Island
3. Hawaii
4. Nevada
5. Tennessee
6. Oklahoma
7. New Jersey
8. Florida
9. Michigan
10. Virginia


I think California is fool's gold for the Republicans. Barbara Boxer's U.S. Senate seat is up in 2010 and Boxer most likely will win the race going away although Carly Fiorina would make it somewhat respectable. Boxer being on the ballot will help the Democratic gubernatorial nominee. Arnold Schwarzenegger's popularity has plummeted so that will hurt the Republicans. Meg Whitman can self fund but that will only take her so far against what the Democrats will raise for the race. Finally, the state is trending Democratic even in Republican Congressional districts. Barack Obama won the districts of many California Republican Congressman and two in particular had unexpected very close races.

I wonder when the Democratic governor of Wyoming, Dave Freudenthal, will decide on running for a third term. It probably is legally possible but the dynamics of that are interesting.

Posted by: madoug | May 29, 2009 5:37 PM | Report abuse

zouk is so unintentionall hilarious...

"typical hate filled lib ignoramus."

no self-awareness whatsoever. definitely short bus material.

Posted by: drindl | May 29, 2009 5:33 PM | Report abuse

"Who to believe? The accomplished Nobel-winning economist or the spastic blogger troll?

Decisions, decisions!"

I think zook might be up for his own Nobel soon. Did you see his groundbreaking statistical analysis yesterday?

Posted by: DDAWD | May 29, 2009 5:30 PM | Report abuse

Krugman couldn't predict that the sun will rise. find one thing ever he has been right about. His work finished in the 70s. since then he has been a political hack.

==

Who to believe? The accomplished Nobel-winning economist or the spastic blogger troll?

Decisions, decisions!

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 5:13 PM | Report abuse

Oh yeah, pukie, and those people that just awarded him the Nobel Prize in Economics don't know anything either. You idiot!

Posted by: jasperanselm | May 29, 2009 5:10 PM | Report abuse

chrissuxit - you really are a beliigerant little misanthrope aren't you. I presume you blame someone else for your misery.

typical hate filled lib ignoramus.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 5:08 PM | Report abuse

Krugman couldn't predict that the sun will rise. find one thing ever he has been right about. His work finished in the 70s. since then he has been a political hack.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 5:06 PM | Report abuse

"Flakey Jakey must be breaking a sweat today, frantically hopping from one comment section to another an posting the exact same thing like some aboriginal trying to get all the coconuts.

Get a life, Jakey, or better still take your own."

Very funny, but you ruined it with that last line.

Posted by: DDAWD | May 29, 2009 4:52 PM | Report abuse

What inflation, jakey? Read Krugman, you putz.

==

You kidding? If her read Paul Krugman his brain would ooze out his ears

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 4:48 PM | Report abuse

What inflation, jakey? Read Krugman, you putz.

Posted by: jasperanselm | May 29, 2009 4:39 PM | Report abuse

Jake, let me try to impart a clue into your pompous and self-impressed little pointed noggin: nobody here cares if you live or die. Where you get any other idea defies comprehension.

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 4:26 PM | Report abuse

When the opponents of VA's Terry McC. put up the post Dem. primary footage.. where he's all up on the Hillary thing and then his sorry speech of finally giving up the ship (a ship that was already empty).. they should sail by him in the elections...

Posted by: newbeeboy | May 29, 2009 4:25 PM | Report abuse

Does anyone have any comment on the SUBSTANCE of the Bloomberg report?

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 4:23 PM | Report abuse

Flakey Jakey must be breaking a sweat today, frantically hopping from one comment section to another an posting the exact same thing like some aboriginal trying to get all the coconuts.

Get a life, Jakey, or better still take your own.

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 4:17 PM | Report abuse

May 29 (Bloomberg) -- They’re back.

For the first time since another Democrat occupied the White House, investors from Beijing to Zurich are challenging a president’s attempts to revive the economy with record deficit spending. Fifteen years after forcing Bill Clinton to abandon his own stimulus plans, the so-called bond vigilantes are punishing Barack Obama for quadrupling the budget shortfall to $1.85 trillion. By driving up yields on U.S. debt, they are also threatening to derail Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s efforts to cut borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.

The 1.5-percentage-point rise in 10-year Treasury yields this year pushed interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages to above 5 percent for the first time since before Bernanke announced on March 18 that the central bank would start printing money to buy financial assets. Treasuries have lost 5.1 percent in their worst annual start since Merrill Lynch & Co. began its Treasury Master Index in 1977.

“The bond-market vigilantes are up in arms over the outlook for the federal deficit,” said Edward Yardeni, who coined the term in 1984 to describe investors who protest monetary or fiscal policies they consider inflationary by selling bonds. He now heads Yardeni Research Inc. in Great Neck, New York. “Ten trillion dollars over the next 10 years is just an indication that Washington is really out of control and that there is no fiscal discipline whatsoever.”

Investor Dread

What bond investors dread is accelerating inflation after the government and Fed agreed to lend, spend or commit $12.8 trillion to thaw frozen credit markets and snap the longest U.S. economic slump since the 1930s. The central bank also pledged to buy as much as $300 billion of Treasuries and $1.25 trillion of bonds backed by home loans.

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 4:10 PM | Report abuse

I think you mean Rudy Giuliani, but you've got the jist of it.

==

heh heh heh yeah Rooody

I remember one of those news-video things had an interview with that genius in the Everglades .. in less than 30 seconds of talking he already started in on a rerun, something about a stable Iraq being in America's interests, a string of words emerging in one unbroken strand like a goober's saliva .. then someone realized he was already repeating himself and suddenly he was being hustled away, smile smile smile smile .. it was the phoniest presentation we'd seen in the whole campaign.

Only thing missing was a pull-ring coming out of his chest

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 4:10 PM | Report abuse

"then they're the same people who were saying that young people don't vote and Fred Thompson was going to be our next president"


I think you mean Rudy Giuliani, but you've got the jist of it.


.

Posted by: bsimon1 | May 29, 2009 4:01 PM | Report abuse

Oh my the ol' "infallible market" thing.

Amazing anyone could be stupid enough to believe this animistic BS, but then they're the same people who were saying that young people don't vote and Fred Thompson was going to be our next president ...

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 3:53 PM | Report abuse

Libs never have done well wih facts. I guess we should return to the definition of the word "is" again.

Here is how a Lib goes about buying stock.

I wonder how IBM is doing? they were really strong in the 80s weren't they? Didn't they build tiny take home computers. I think I heard they have a green initiative. I'll take 500 shares.

Here is how a Repub buys stock: What is the outlook for profit next year? Not so good, the Libs are out to crush all profit you know. I think I'll sell.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 3:42 PM | Report abuse

"And they must be correct. I myself am waiting to make a move until I see the outcome of the birth certificate flap."

You'd better get on the stick! SCOTUS dismissed that absurd trope months ago, dude.

Posted by: torridjoe | May 29, 2009 3:42 PM | Report abuse

Anyone still investing in stocks deserves to get fleeced

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 3:38 PM | Report abuse

These guys already got their a$$es kicked on their market claims in the previous Fix, yet here they come again just re-posting the exact same lies and starting over. Amazing how people deteriorate without the anodyne of productive work.

Posted by: chrisfox8 | May 29, 2009 3:36 PM | Report abuse

Awesome! The king_of_puke is in rare form today!

His mom must have un-grounded him and let him use her computer again! I sure hope he picked up his room in the basement first or she's going to ground him again.

Posted by: jasperanselm | May 29, 2009 3:21 PM | Report abuse

Looks like Zouk has taken my advice.

Posted by: Blarg | May 29, 2009 3:18 PM | Report abuse

WASHINGTON – For a health food nut, President Barack Obama sure likes his burgers.

President Barack Obama made a surprise lunchtime stop at Five Guys, a fast-food restaurant in Washington.


Bush made him do it. no different than all his other positions - wishy washy.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 3:13 PM | Report abuse

When liberalism is framed properly, it is truly laughable.

I guess that is why the press refuses to cover it these days.

dodd who destroyed the housing market is busy fixin' the credit card industry now.

Obimbo, who never had a real job, is running two giant, broke by the unions, manufacturing companies.

Wrangle, who is a tax cheat, is busy writing new tax laws for the rest of us.

Peloony, who overseas intelligence (milk squirts out nose) is blaming the CIA for telling her stuff she didn't do anything about back then.

Obama is closing Gitmo and sending everyone to colorado???? Except no one else is going along with this. Reid can't make up what little mind he has on the subject.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 3:10 PM | Report abuse

blarg, I suggest you study charts from last month to make your portfolio decisions. no use looking ahead or making predictions in the Lib world.

Actually, no need to. the ONE will be making all our decisions for us soon. Good thing, I had no idea what kind of car to buy, which doctor to use, how to heat my home, what to eat, what to teach my kids, how much pay I deserve, etc. I am lost without the messiah.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 2:51 PM | Report abuse

GOVERNORS' RACES ARE KEY TO ENSURING CIVIL AND HUMAN RIGHTS...

BECAUSE THE ONGOING 'EXTRAJUDICIAL TARGETING AND PUNISHMENT NETWORK' SPAWNED OR EXPANDED UNDER BUSH-CHENEY IS DENYING CITIZENS THEIR DUE PROCESS RIGHTS AT THE GRASSROOTS...

...VIA COVERT GPS STALKING OF UNJUSTLY 'TARGETED' AMERICAN CITIZENS AND THEIR FAMILIES.

The questionable legality and constitutionality of covert, warrantless GPS tracking of unjustly targeted persons and their families FINALLY has broken through to the mainstream media:


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090525/ap_on_re_us/us_gps_police


This is the Achilles heel that can bring down the technological infrastructure of organized gang stalking and constitutionally suspect police procedures in conducting investigations of "innocent but targeted" individuals and their families.

Mainstream media: Please follow up and localize the Yahoo News story referenced above.

Civil libertarians: Urge lawmakers to pass a law that prevents the electronic tracking of any individual without an individual-specific (not general) court order -- no more arbitrary, wholesale electronic surveillance and no more covert implantation/activation of devices in vehicles, cell phones or personal property.

This is the issue that the public can understand. Once covert implantation of GPS devices -- or the use of an individual's cell phone as a GPS tracking device -- is definitively made illegal, any official who knowingly allows such surveillance would be an accomplice to a crime. This should be a felony and not a misdemeanor ("harassment," under the law, is a misdemeanor, which is why unjustly targeted American citizens should use the term "torture," or "psychological torture," for non-physical harassment.

Victims of the "extrajudicial targeting and punishment network" spawned or expanded under Bush-Cheney (and now enabled by the inaction of the Obama Administration):

Organize a mass demonstration demanding an end to "covert GPS stalking". Such a demonstration should be aimed at the ACLU -- a demand that these declared civil libertarians address the issue that enables organized stalking of unjustly targeted people and their families.

For more:

http://nowpublic.com/world/gestapo-usa-govt-funded-vigilante-network-terrorizes-america

OR (if link is corrupted / disabled):

http://NowPublic.com/scrivener

Posted by: scrivener50 | May 29, 2009 2:46 PM | Report abuse

"Obama effect: Dow down 40% his first few months"

Dow on Election Day: 9324
Dow on Inauguration Day: 8078
Dow Today: 8415

The Dow is down 10% since Election Day, and up since Obama took office. You should find something less verifiable to lie about.

Posted by: Blarg | May 29, 2009 2:42 PM | Report abuse

According to Lib wisdom, the market sat on the edge of its seat, all during October and november, refusing to make a move until the election was decided and the Lib was actually put in office. They made financial choices based on Bush. No sense making any predictions right????

And they must be correct. I myself am waiting to make a move until I see the outcome of the birth certificate flap.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 2:40 PM | Report abuse

Chris, how do you handicap an Andrew Cuomo-Rudy Giuliani governor's race in the Empire State. At the very least, it would be a headline-dominating barnburner.

Posted by: mattfugazi | May 29, 2009 2:38 PM | Report abuse

The Fix is unwise to exclude MN from the line, TPaw's decision notwithstanding. Whether he's on the ballot or not, this is a huge pickup opportunity for the DFL. Of course, if they nominate another meatball, all bets are off. So lets call it 'on the bubble.'

Posted by: bsimon1 | May 29, 2009 2:37 PM | Report abuse

DJIA on 1/20/01 - 10587
DJI open Oct 1, 08 - 10,831

Deficit - a couple billion over 8 years

Bush effect - mainly even

Obama effect:

Dow down 40% his first few months
Deficit ?????????/ guufffaw

Pretty standard comparison of Libs and Repubs, dontcha think. Or have you forgotten Reagan/Carter?

Reagan initiated decades of prosperity. Obama has initiated decades of malaise. But I must admit he was good at doing it fast, before anyone figured it out. Of course with Pelosi and Reid running things, I would be surprised if they knew where the cafeteria was.
now we must, rush,,rush into massive health care waste and spending. quick, quick.


Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 2:34 PM | Report abuse

Jacked said "When will the Democrats wake up and realize that 80% of the stock market decline has occured SINCE the election?"

Take a zero off your calculations, Jake.
The stock market has lost about 8% since the election (DJI -736 pts). Or did you mean the 2004 election? Under Bushie the market lost over 10 times that (DJI -7652 pts).
Since the Inauguration, we're up a bit. :-)

Posted by: margaretmeyers | May 29, 2009 2:31 PM | Report abuse

tarrapin:

I'm not talking about the point totals (king_of_zouk takes care of that angle). I'm talking about 80% of the decline being since the election -- only 20% of the time was before -- at some point, Democrats are going to realize that a stalled recovery is indeed Obama's fault.

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 2:25 PM | Report abuse

look at the data the market uses, not the data krugman et al use. Compare the polling data to the DJI. the fall came the day after messiah pulled ahead of Mac. roughly Oct 15, two weeks before the election. We could call October the month of the impending Obama.

DJI open Oct 1 - 10,831
DJI open Oct 31 - 9,325

The news that Obimbo will probably win - reduce your wealth by 15% - a good indicator of future happenings.

the month of nov was similar opening at 9325 and closing at 8149, down another 13% - the cost of his actual election.

total loss for electing a Lib - 30% of your wealth.

by March, when the full brunt of liberalism was clear we were down to 6547. a total drop of 40% since hopeity McChange promised to do all the things he is not going to do. that hope cost a bundle.

It is hard to imagine that even that dolt McCain could have done this poorly.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 2:22 PM | Report abuse

As always, 5 seconds on google debunks the luddite R's -

DJIA on 1/20/01 - 10587
DJIA on 1/20/09 - 7949

A cumulative loss of more than 2,600 points during GW's Administration.

Posted by: terrapin31590us | May 29, 2009 2:21 PM | Report abuse

Yeah, the Dow is KILLING Obama, given that it's higher now than when he took office. :rolleyes:.

Chris, you might have mentioned that former Gov John Kitzhaber is making strong noises in the local press about running again for 2010...and would be a lock if he did so.

Posted by: torridjoe | May 29, 2009 2:13 PM | Report abuse

Epstein’s political activism also included appearing on The Political Cesspool, a white supremacist radio program hosted by Council of Conservative Citizens member James Edwards that proudly admits to hosting white supremacists and Neo-Nazi figures.

Posted by: drindl | May 29, 2009 2:04 PM | Report abuse

Here's the face of the modern republican party:

This just in: Marcus Epstein, executive director of Pat Buchanan’s “The American Cause” and Tom Tancredo’s Team America PAC, and founder of “Youth for Western Civilization,” is going to be sentenced on July 8th for verbally and physically assaulting a black woman in Washington DC in 2007.

According to documents obtained from District of Columbia’s Superior Court, Epstein, 25, must appear before Judge Wendell P. Gardner on July 8 for sentencing after pleading guilty to simple assault charges stemming from an incident during the early evening hours of July 7, 2007. The documents state that Epstein was walking down the street making offensive remarks when he encountered the victim, called her the “N-word” and struck her in her head. He was briefly detained by the woman’s husband, but was able to escape, only to be arrested minutes later by a Secret Service officer who witnessed the attack.

Posted by: drindl | May 29, 2009 2:03 PM | Report abuse

hahaha

"The tone of the attacks has alarmed many within the GOP establishment, who say the party must remain civil in its criticism of Sotomayor and should focus on legal issues, rather than personal attacks or racial accusations. One prominent Hispanic GOP strategist, who asked not to be identified discussing the topic, said the blistering attacks on Sotomayor were "suicidal" for the party, especially as it attempts to counter the broad support for Obama among Hispanics.

"What's this going to look like on Telemundo? What's it going to look like on Univision?" asked this strategist, referring to the nation's two largest Spanish-language networks. "If we want to compete as a national party in the near future, we cannot be seen taking these kind of cheap shots. We simply cannot actively work to alienate the fastest-growing bloc in the electorate."

John Ullyot, a GOP strategist who worked on judicial nominations as a Capitol Hill staffer, said that "any comments politically on race or gender are fraught with peril for Republicans."

Posted by: drindl | May 29, 2009 2:00 PM | Report abuse

A little surprised CC took NJ off the line - Corzine is +50 disapproval, the state is in hock to its ears and the R's, if they don't commit ritualistic hari kari by nominating Lonegan have former USA Chris Christie as a nominee. While a neophyte, he did prosecute a bunch of politicians up here. JC will probably pull it out, but certainly a close shave for the bearded one.

Posted by: terrapin31590us | May 29, 2009 1:55 PM | Report abuse

The forward looking stock market began its precipitous decline the day Obama pulled ahead of McCain in the polls.

who said the market doesn't know it all?

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 1:41 PM | Report abuse

the message is out. The people's republic of Alexandria VA has elected two Republicans to the city council (no precedent). After you check the temperature of beelzulbubs home, you may want to consider that even usually loony libs have seen thier error and are beginning to correct it.

the rest of the state is set to follow suit and elect an R governor. Can we say we're sorry any louder?

Posted by: king_of_zouk | May 29, 2009 1:38 PM | Report abuse

jakeD, you and I understand economics, but for to many people who are not active investors, they don't get it. As soon as the dems won Congress in 2006, I knew we were screwed. I acted promptly by taking all of my money out of the markets, even with the 10% tax penalty, I came out way ahead because I got it out just in time before the markets crashed.

Posted by: vbhoomes | May 29, 2009 1:35 PM | Report abuse

Exactly, vbhoomes. When will the Democrats wake up and realize that 80% of the stock market decline has occured SINCE the election? In fact, the day after the election, the Dow lost 5% in one day and another 5% the day the stimulas bill was signed. The stock market (those who bet on the country's financial future) has soundly shouted a Bronx cheer regarding Obama's economic policies. Over 80 million Americans have 401(K)accounts. once they understand why their wealth was destroyed, the Democrats will suffer.

As for specific policies that Obama "inherited" that caused the decline, such as Bush's portion of TARP, how did Senator Obama vote? They all PALE in comparison to what Obama's doing now. Too bad they will never be able to prove that the economy would have done WORSE but for The One ; )

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 1:21 PM | Report abuse

What's the matter with Michigan? They have been an economic basket case for the last 15 years, yet they continue to elect democrats, expecting them to get the economy going. At some point, you quit feeling sorry them because they continue to vote against their economic interest.

Posted by: vbhoomes | May 29, 2009 1:08 PM | Report abuse

"Republicans have to fee [SIC] pretty good about where [SIC] today"? You need to get some good sleep like Charlie did ; )

Posted by: JakeD | May 29, 2009 1:06 PM | Report abuse

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