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Friday Governors Line: What Will VA and NJ Mean?



Gov. Jon Corzine (D-N.J.) and state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D-Va.) are trying to keep governorships in Democratic hands this fall. Photos by Chris Hondros/Getty Images and Bob Brown of AP Photo/Richmond Times-Dispatch

Eighteen days out from the Nov. 3 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, both parties' expectation-setting machines have gone into high gear.

Republicans argue that both states went for President Barack Obama
last fall and the fact that they are competitive in each is a sign of his -- and his party's -- faltering appeal among the electorate.

Democrats respond that the president's party hasn't even split the two state's governorships since 1985 when Gov. Tom Kean (R) won a second term during the presidency of Ronald Reagan (R). (That same year Democratic Gov. Jerry Baliles was elected in Virginia.)

As of today, a split result seems most likely as Republicans have a clear edge in Virginia while a new New York Times poll in New Jersey shows Gov. Jon Corzine (D) moving slightly ahead of former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie (R)

Friday Line

Given the dynamics in each race, Republicans have the better chance of pulling off a sweep of both states while if Democrats could go two for two next month it would be somewhat stunning.

While we have written in this space that both races have turned -- at least in part -- on local issues, it's hard not to see Virginia and New Jersey being analyzed for their impact on the national landscape and the 37 gubernatorial contests to come next year.

Speaking of those races, below we've ranked the top 15(!) most vulnerable governorships
in the country. As always, the number one ranked race is the most likely to switch parties in 2009/2010.

Kudos? Critiques? The comments section is open for business.

To the Line!

Last Republican-held seat off the Line: Arizona
Last Democratic-held seat off the Line: Pennsylvania

15 (tie). Iowa (Democratic-controlled): The Hawkeye State has moved decisively in Democrats' favor over the last two elections but former Gov. Terry Branstad (R) is an "A"-level recruit and polling shows him tied or slightly ahead of Gov. Chet Culver (D). (Previous ranking: N/A)

15 (tie). Florida (Republican-controlled): State CFO Alex Sink (D) raised nearly twice as much money as state Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) over the last three months -- an ominous sign for the GOPer given how expensive it is to run statewide in Florida. The Sunshine State is still a swing area, however, and the national mood will play a strong role here. (Previous ranking: 13)

14. Colorado (D): Gov. Bill Ritter's (D) third quarter of fundraising was disappointing as he was outraised by one of his Republican opponents -- former Rep. Scott McInnis -- and came close to being outraised by the other one -- state Sen. Josh Penry. Ritter's team insists they are on track but there is significant worry about him among the Democratic chattering class. (Previous ranking: 15)

13. Wisconsin (D): Rep. Ron Kind's decision not to run for the seat being vacated by Gov. Jim Doyle (D) robbed Democrats of a potential star candidate. Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett is still considering a run but is seen as less than 50-50 to get in, which, if it comes to pass, would leave Lt. Gov. Barb Lawton as the lone Democrat. National Democrats insist recruiting is ongoing in the Badger State, a sign of Lawton's weakness. Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker appears to be the preferred Republican nominee but former Rep. Mark Neumann is also running. (Previous ranking: 14)

12. Nevada (R): Clark County Commission Chairman Rory Reid's entrance into the race this week gives Democrats the candidate they believe is best positioned to take back Nevada's governorship in 2010. But, Reid is not without problems as evidenced by a recent poll that showed him running third in a three-way general election test against former U.S. District Judge Brian Sandoval (R) and Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman who may run as an independent. Republicans have problems of their own as embattled Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) seems likely to stay in the race, making life more difficult for Sandoval in the near term. (Previous ranking: 9)

11. Minnesota (R): The fields on both sides of the race to replace Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) are packed with candidates -- most of whom have a limited profile statewide. But, Democrats appear to have an ace in the hole in Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak who is widely expected to get into the contest in the near future. Republicans may well have to wait until next year to find out whether former Sen. Norm Coleman will run but given the Democratic trend in the Land of 10,000 Lakes in recent years, it may not matter who the GOP puts up. (Previous ranking: 11)

10. New Jersey (D): It's become clear that Christie is slipping while independent candidate Chris Daggett gains in the final weeks of the race. It's no surprise then that Christie and the Republican Governors Association have begun to attack Daggett on TV and radio of late. Corzine simply cannot move his number beyond the low 40s no matter what he does so the incumbent must hope that Christie can't peel enough votes off of Daggett to keep the third party candidate out of double digits. Democrats are optimistic here (and Republicans are pessimistic) but it's far from over. (Previous ranking: 7)

9. California (R): A recent Field Poll suggested that the primary and general election are state Attorney General Jerry Brown's (D) to lose. Brown led San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom (D) by 20 points in the primary and held bigger leads in general election matchups against the likely Republican nominees. Former eBay CEO Meg Whitman's (R) personal wealth makes this a race to keep on the radar but her uneven performance over last few weeks raises questions about whether she will even be her party's nominee. (Previous ranking: 10)

8. Michigan (D): The dismal state of the state's economy, eight years of Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) and a terrific Republican field spell big trouble for Democrats in the Wolverine State. Hey, at least you have Rich Rodriguez and Tate Forcier! (Previous ranking: 8)

7. Virginia (D): The trend line in the new Washington Post poll doesn't look good for state Sen. Creigh Deeds. Voters think Deeds is running a negative campaign (never a good sign) and trust former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell (R) more to solve the major problems facing the Commonwealth. Is there a path for Deeds? Sure. Is he likely to find and follow it? No. (Previous ranking: 12)

6. Vermont (R): Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie's (R) decision to run for the seat being vacated by Gov. Jim Douglas (R) gives the GOP some reason for hope. But, the state's demographics strongly favor Democrats and the party has several credible candidates -- any one of whom would likely be favored against Dubie in the general election. (Previous ranking: 6)

5. Oklahoma (D): Rep. Mary Fallin (R) is a strong frontrunner in the primary and, because of the Sooner State's GOP tendencies, in the general election as well. Democrats have two serviceable candidates in Lt. Gov. Jari Askins and state Attorney General Drew Edmondson but there isn't much optimism in Washington about their chances. (Previous ranking: 5)

4. Rhode Island (R): The Republican rumor mill is churning about the emergence of a candidate in the mode of Gov. Don Carcieri (R). We'll believe it when we see it. In the meantime, this is almost certainly a race between former Sen. Lincoln Chafee, who is running as an independent, and whoever Democrats nominate. (Previous ranking: 3)

3. Hawaii (R): There's a terrific Democratic primary shaping up in the Aloha State between Rep. Neil Abercrombie and Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann. Either one starts the general election against Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R) as a clear frontrunner. (Previous ranking: 2)

2. Tennessee (D): Despite Gov. Phil Bredesen's (D) eight years as Tennessee's chief executive, there is a very thin Democratic bench in the Volunteer State. Mike McWherter, the son of former Gov. Ned Ray McWherter, could make an intriguing general election candidate but the Republican field -- led by Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam -- is very strong. (Previous ranking: 4)

1. Kansas (D): Gov. Sam Brownback (R). (Previous ranking: 1)

By Chris Cillizza  |  October 16, 2009; 12:52 PM ET
Categories:  The Line  
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Next: Morning Fix: Palin's Facebook Strategy

Comments

After having seen the class of people now running washington and after hearing pelosi call those who dare to disagree with her, Astroturf, I will vote for anyone except a democrat. That's a shame because I really used to respect Mark Warner, but if he was running for anything right now, I wouldn't even vote for him.

Posted by: tjmlrc | October 19, 2009 10:41 AM | Report abuse

The new era of politics.. seems strangely reminiscent of past eras of politics.. dating back to the exit from the triple canopy. We are indeed strange creatures when it comes to establishing social order and heirarchy.

Posted by: newbeeboy | October 19, 2009 8:14 AM | Report abuse

Stomp stomp stomp - "Fear the mighty Zouuuuuuuuuuuuuk!" --- Stomp stomp stomp --- "I'm waving my mighty claws, liberal mortal!" --- stomp stomp stomp --- "Hear me howwwwllll!" --- stomp stomp stomp.

Yawn. Off to bed. Turn off the light when you're done, zouk, ok?

Posted by: nodebris | October 18, 2009 11:53 PM | Report abuse

And another confused loon emerges. This blog is like some sort of moonbat magnet.

Posted by: snowbama | October 18, 2009 11:41 PM | Report abuse

"Zouk seems to have smitten them all."

koz is one of those insubstantial mythical beasts that can only harm people stupid enough to believe in them. Which is to say, his enemies beat themselves. koz himself does nothing but stomp around in circles in an ill-lit room saying how scary he is. Pretty stupid looking, if you're older than 12. Which is to say, a true modern "conservative."

Posted by: nodebris | October 18, 2009 8:45 PM | Report abuse

I appreciate the retrospective. Zouk seems to have smitten them all.

But you forget the most rabid of moonbats.

Posted by: snowbama | October 18, 2009 4:13 PM | Report abuse

They say Audra Shay, the 38-year-old President of the Young Republicans, is the new face of 21st Century "conservatism." That said, Ms. Shay seems to believe the nation's number one problem is..."[rac]coons." Really?

"Audra Shay, accused of endorsing racism on Facebook, became head of the Young Republicans on Saturday. John Avlon uncovers new details about her disturbing online comments.

Thirty-eight-year-old Audra Shay’s campaign to become the next chairman of the Young Republicans went from obscure to infamous over the past week, after The Daily Beast revealed details of posts of her Facebook account. Specifically, a thread where one of her friends posts that “Obama Bin Lauden [sic] is the new terrorist… Muslim is on there side [sic]… need to take this country back from all of these mad coons… and illegals,” and Shay responds eight minutes later with: “You tell em Eric! lol.”

“This is an outrage and I CAN NOT believe this nation has him as our leader! It makes me sick!” She posted a few minutes later: “My disdain for Obama is directly proportionate for his disdain of this country.”"

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2009-07-10/the-gops-young-hatemonger/

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 18, 2009 3:21 PM | Report abuse

"Is that really representative of the state of 21st century American conservatism?"

A big question. First we need to wonder whether American conservatism exists.

It seems to me there are two sets of liberals. The one set are people liberal on interpreting the 2nd amendment, liberal on military adventures, liberal with corporate largesses, liberal with about the cultural and political reach of Christianity, liberal with the "free speech" of K street influence peddlers, liberal with the Old Testament (Jesus' crypto-socialist Sermon on the Mount? Never heard of it), and so on.

Then there or the other liberals.

Conservative is an adjective in search of a noun.


Posted by: shrink2 | October 18, 2009 2:06 PM | Report abuse

From the Fix archives, an example of some poor soul victimized (and evidently unhinged) by King of Zouk's Hall of Fame trolling:


Most liberals are pre unhinged all on their own. Take a look in the mirror. Then find someone to blame. That is the new liberalism. It comes from the responsibility you are assigned but refuse to assume. You inherited it. Chant. Repeat. Hope change.

Perhaps some ACTION would cure your dithering. We can only hope. Literally.

Posted by: snowbama | October 18, 2009 2:03 PM | Report abuse

Note: CF8 hasn't posted in months;

you libs are really clueless.

Posted by: snowbama | October 18, 2009 1:54 PM | Report abuse

From the Fix archives, an example of some poor soul victimized (and evidently unhinged) by King of Zouk's Hall of Fame trolling:

"The wit and wisdom of ignoRANT coward. All this in just one day. Impressive!

Chris is desperate to find some positive about the Republican prospects in 2008. Give it up! The Republicans will be thrown out of office and the WH in 2008.
To the 'concern troll' -- cut the crap. Everyone knows anyone who signs 'concrned' this or that is a gop troll, OK? Get over it, you ain't fooling anyone.
...

Oh, the b*tch is seething -- she has just as much hubris as Paulie Wolfnuts himself. Or Leona Helmsley. How dare anyone treat them like Little People? How dare anyone say they have to play by the rules?
Let's stop the hyperbole. The Gang That Couldn't Fire Straight is doing enough damage to themselves. There's no need to distort their actions.
...
koz hasn't arrived yet. i'm sure he'll be here shortly, with his crazed hate-filled rants about "Libs' and Pelosi and Reid and global warming....
I am the only one here allowed crazed hate-filled rants. you should not be concerned with Pelosi or Reid, you should be obsessed with koz, like me. and global warming is settled, not open to debate.
Kill the priest! Kill the priest!
or how about
Have you checked the children?
or
It puts the lotion in the pan, or else it gets the hose again!
Heeeeeeere's Zouky!!
look at all the crazed rightwing comments starting at noon, blarg.... it's just like i predicted: at noon koz comes on and starts ranting about 'surrender monkies' global warming, harry reid, pelosi and dems in particular. and right on schedule, there he is, with a lot of names, but the exact same rants that he does every single day.
...
it's still koz, blarg. it's got the trademark rants
...

Still wondering if Zouk becomes indignant at himself when he posts as me
Am I me or am I zouk? the confusion is starting again. If it makes sense it must be zouk posing as me. If it is mindless, it is me. Just so you know. BTW, this is me....

Posted by: Anonymous | May 18, 2007 3:48 PM"

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 18, 2009 1:54 PM | Report abuse

If you need any example of boring repitition and shallow tripe, simply observe cf8's minute by minute screed against Jake and zouk. Is that all you got anymore. Is it now moonbat rules that all posts must be whining about the " enemy"- fox news, repubs, Jake, zouk. Just like Barry. Too bad the actual enemy is the Taliban and al queda. But no notion of how to fight them.

Posted by: snowbama | October 18, 2009 11:42 AM
_________
Note: CF8 hasn't posted in months; he was banned here b/c he responded to a HOF troll, who, oddly, was not banned despite YEARS of off-topic extremist baiting. I don't know of any "Barry" other than Sanders and Manilow. The name of the 44th President of the United States is Barack H. Obama.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 18, 2009 1:23 PM | Report abuse

What amazes me is that, with the exception of Reason5 and a few occasional posters, the conservative "argument," such as it is, is here represented exclusively by two entirely tiresome trolls. Is that really representative of the state of 21st century American conservatism?

Posted by: nodebris | October 18, 2009 1:05 PM | Report abuse

Speaking of tiresome (and for that endless double spaced repetition, svreader was the worst), is there anything more boring than this theme?

"....I've been a registered Democrat all my life...but now I am starting to think that it is good to change parties just to clean house."

Yeah, well I voted for Obama, but now I am glued to Fox News. All my life I have only voted for leftists, Bill Ayers was my best friend in college, but now, now I think Sarah Palin is a genius.

Posted by: shrink2 | October 18, 2009 12:36 PM | Report abuse

If you need any example of boring repitition and shallow tripe, simply observe cf8's minute by minute screed against Jake and zouk. Is that all you got anymore. Is it now moonbat rules that all posts must be whining about the " enemy"- fox news, repubs, Jake, zouk. Just like Barry. Too bad the actual enemy is the Taliban and al queda. But no notion of how to fight them.

Posted by: snowbama | October 18, 2009 11:42 AM | Report abuse

What I don't understand about Colorado is why there are insurance companies selling insurance there that the State Division of Insurance posts no records about and why Governor Ritter allows this. One example is Mutual Insurance Limited of Bermuda. Another example is Underwriters at Lloyds London. The State's web site says that the last record it has on Lloyds is 1996 and Lloyds is not listed on its on-line search for "Colorado Authorized Insurance Companies". I have proof that Lloyds did business in Colorado. I sued a prosecutor in Colorado that Lloyds had insured and her lawyer sent me the bill with her name, the Lloyds contact name and address, and a claim number. The bill even listed "call to court regarding the status of pending motions" and a conference call about case assignment issues, after which my case was transferred to former judge Naughty Nottingham without being randomly reassigned by the federal clerk's office. I've been a registered Democrat all my life and these politicians are democrats but now I am starting to think that it is good to change parties just to clean house.

Posted by: kay_sieverding | October 18, 2009 10:51 AM | Report abuse

From the Fix archives: the [in]famous Rufus-King of Zouk "debates." [Rufus, as we understand it, was kinda baited into un-spellchecked cyberlunacy by since-banned Hall of Fame troll KOZ.]

Sample "Rufus" retort:

"When I say the government will fall, don't take me wrong. I obviously love my country. I do not love the government that has been imposed on us through lies the last 15 years, and before.

This shell of a government will be replaced by a real funtioning government. the gop is invested in the defeat of america. And they think they will win the future sabotaging teh country? I beg to differ.

Zouk, how is the dollar? how is the housing market. How is the stock market going to do? How is the world viewing us right now?

It is you that are indenial, sir. Living in a cave created for you by liars and propogandsits. Good luck witht hat yacht. I hope you sink. One less lying fascist in the world

Posted by: RUFUS11_33 | October 29, 2007 6:09 PM"
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/eye-on-2008/mtvmyspace-forum-with-barack-o.html

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 18, 2009 10:49 AM | Report abuse

The Post's earlier take on McDonnell's "THESIS," his "Gone With the Wind" of 1950s-style intolerance. Good news. No racial blasts in it. But maybe that was being saved for Thesis, Vol. 2. Who knows?

"In the thesis, "The Republican Party's Vision for the Family: The Compelling Issue of The Decade," McDonnell described working women as "detrimental" to the traditional family. He criticized a U.S. Supreme Court decision legalizing contraception for unmarried couples and decried the "purging" of religion from schools. He advocated character education programs in public schools to teach "traditional Judeo-Christian values," and he criticized federal tax credits for child care expenditures because they encouraged women to enter the workforce."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/31/AR2009083103855.html?hpid=topnews

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 18, 2009 10:28 AM | Report abuse

Unclear whether Fix got the memo from the Post. Today in its print version, the Post devoted its entire editorial to a full throated endorsement of Creigh (and bashing of McDonnell). Not a sentence about "GOP comeback" or "Creigh in trouble" or "It's a referendum on BHO." The Post may still pull it out for Creigh [Good] Deeds.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 18, 2009 9:43 AM | Report abuse

BB, commercial trolling and self-referencing to one's own website have been better policed here than the d72 overt racism.

mm, your note about "idiots" does remind me of KOZ's favorite idiot to pester, rufus. At the end of his posting career he appeared to be moving into violent derangement, which was in no way amusing.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 18, 2009 9:00 AM | Report abuse

GandT, I agree with your midnight philosophy. I think it's good for us to sometimes NOT control who we communicate with. It reminds us that there is intelligence in unexpected places, that nitwits are everywhere, and that we should think before we speak so we all help to keep the level of idiocy down.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | October 18, 2009 8:24 AM | Report abuse

Not really much of a point, is there.

Funny how when we enter our adult lives and careers what sort of people we never have any contact with anymore. Then comes the internet and puts us back into touch with the sort of people we'd never by choice have anything to do with. The kind of people we were glad to never see ever again after high school graduation.

But they were better out of sight. Yeah Jake is a lying racist pig and yeah zouk is just dripping with venom and hate and ha diddly ha ha ha but after a while being in constant contact with such sick and twisted people is wearying and depressing.

I'd rather not know such people existed.

I'd rather still they didn't.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | October 18, 2009 12:09 AM | Report abuse

When you libs won the election did you really think that everyone, not just the press, would ignore all bad news or sweep it under the rug. It was so kool when bush was in, but no more.

So if posting facts leaves a bad taste, like all other of your own weaknesses, simply blame bush.

Posted by: snowbama | October 17, 2009 11:56 PM | Report abuse

Hmmm... which is worse. Commercial spamming by gowithwind888 (soon to be removed, I assume) or continued insults by snowball.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | October 17, 2009 11:22 PM | Report abuse

f the many [url=http://www.weddingdressart.com/index.php?main_page=index&cPath=9]Prom Dresses[/url]out there, a few actually stand out from the rest. Quinceanera Dress is one of them. For those who want to appear slick and tall and yet portray that sexy look a strapless Quinceanera [url=http://www.dresses4dancing.com/index.php?main_page=index&cPath=9]Prom Dresses[/url] with a sweetheart neckline would do. The best design is the much dropped waist bodice covered with floral embroidery and beading. The skirt should be full of layered organza ruffles. Would you ask for more?

Posted by: gowithwind888 | October 17, 2009 10:04 PM | Report abuse


Vintage prom dresses have become very popular. The 50's and 60's looks are back with long chiffon Prom Dresses with full collars and full-length sheer train; glamorous strapless Prom Dresses with winged upper bodice and a full skirt. Semi-sheer chiffon gowns with embroidered organdy and Empire waist-favorites in the 60-are also making a comeback among the younger set. Most are opting to dress up their ensembles with vintage jackets, coats, shoes, shawls and jewelry.

Posted by: gowithwind888 | October 17, 2009 10:03 PM | Report abuse

Again, you left Massachusetts off the list. Deval Patrick is dead man walking. Charlie Baker is moving, raising gobs of money. Deval has a soft landing pad in the Obama admin when voters boot his butt off Beacon Hill.

Posted by: deadbranch19 | October 17, 2009 10:00 PM | Report abuse

You might be a democrat if:

everyone ELSE is a liar with bogus claims. But not you.

You have majorities in both houses and it's repubs fault.

Your congressional approvals are in the teens and president is below 50 in the first year

you think surrendering to your enemies projects strength

if the first porkulus fails, another is needed

if none of your ideas work, all you need is another speech

Posted by: snowbama | October 17, 2009 9:55 PM | Report abuse

MM, yes, it's been awhile since the last D72 post. I guess she passed out when BHO's approvals went above 60. BTW, the Fix I posted to earlier has post from quite a few of the "Hall of Famers" including Jake and 37th and O. In fact Jake and 37 kind of tag-teamed the Fix in the same way he and snow do now. But I don't think snow is 37.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 17, 2009 8:35 PM | Report abuse

I used to think Dianne72 was a performance artist. She was so operatic in her posts, really reaching for a frame for her insults,dropping in so many cultural spheres, getting preposterous and then getting silly. It was so hyper -- more insults per post than Snowy. But then I would say to myself, how could she spend her day creatively spilling such ugliness? It would be too exhausting, so she must just be a full-time, ugly hater.

when did she last post? I'm intrigued by the idea that she was a bot of some kind.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | October 17, 2009 7:21 PM | Report abuse

This Fix Post about the First Lady contains some of the very "best" of Dianne72 rants:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/fix-picks/michele-obama-covergirl.html

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 17, 2009 7:04 PM | Report abuse

The "whitey tape" reference reminds me of the 143 fake controversies BHO has had to deal with over the last few years. :)

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 17, 2009 6:59 PM | Report abuse

Found it, dd.

From the Fix archives, Hall of Fame raci-, er, unenlightened troll, Dianne72:

"Someone should remind Michelle Shaniqua Obama that it is considered impolite to chew food with your mouth open. In my view this woman lacks the poise, grace, and good breeding to be First Lady. I saw this image of her eating a pork sandwich and I was aghast at the prospect of her entertaining in the White House. Can you imagine her sitting down to tea with Queen Elizabeth II? Do you think she will hang the god awful african art on the pristine White House walls?

Posted by: Dianne72 | August 7, 2008 2:03 PM"

No wonder D72 is in the HOF for trolls. This gives Jake and Snow something to aspire to.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 17, 2009 6:55 PM | Report abuse

Not to mention her interior decorating!

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | October 17, 2009 6:52 PM | Report abuse

"I always wondered how Dianne72 was in a position to know how Michelle LaVaughan ate her meals. :)

Posted by: broadwayjoe"

I think that was the best one. She was compared to the Queen of England in that one, right?

Posted by: DDAWD | October 17, 2009 6:41 PM | Report abuse

It was interesting seeing whoever was in charge of the DianneBOT gradually change the message of the day. I'm still waiting for the legendary whitey tape.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | October 17, 2009 5:20 PM
________

I always wondered how Dianne72 was in a position to know how Michelle LaVaughan ate her meals. :)

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 17, 2009 6:04 PM | Report abuse

It was interesting seeing whoever was in charge of the DianneBOT gradually change the message of the day. I'm still waiting for the legendary whitey tape.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | October 17, 2009 5:20 PM | Report abuse

Dianne72 cracked me up. Her stuff was so over the top that I found it more funny than offensive. I actually used to find snowbama sort of funny when I thought he was just posting to needle at people. Now that I think he actually takes himself seriously, it's just annoying.

Posted by: DDAWD | October 17, 2009 4:58 PM | Report abuse

WILLIAM HENRY VANDERBILT
The public be damned!
'Reply to a question weather the public should be consulted about luxury trains.' A. W. Cole's 'Letter, New York Times,' 25 August 1918.

Posted by: edtroyhampton | October 17, 2009 4:08 PM | Report abuse

Early voting in Va. When I voted today NO ONE was at the local polling place. Deeds may win by 1345 votes to 1299 statewide. Who knows?

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 17, 2009 1:16 PM | Report abuse

Did you forget rufas or the ignorant coward?

Posted by: snowbama | October 17, 2009 12:33 PM | Report abuse

Politicide in American -- IT IS Happpening Here...

SILENT, HARMFUL MICROWAVE AND LASER DIRECTED ENERGY WEAPONS DEPLOYED AGAINST AMERICAN CITIZENS BY MULTI-AGENCY FED PROGRAM

• Physical and Neurological Impairment Under the Cover of Telecommunications (cell tower installations), "Less-Lethal" Law Enforcement Weaponry

http://nowpublic.com/world/gestapo-usa-govt-funded-vigilante-network-terrorizes-america OR http://NowPublic.com/scrivener RE: GESTAPO USA

Posted by: scrivener50 | October 17, 2009 11:31 AM | Report abuse

NIce to see you back, Mike! [USMC, that is.]

37th & O was definitely the most annoying, though the space chewing headers were a nice warning for me to use my page down key. Iowatreasures could match CF8 for intensity, but gradually lost interest. For most offensive, it had to be Diannne72, hands down.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | October 17, 2009 11:20 AM | Report abuse

BTW, what is that on top of Deeds's head?
Makes voters question his judgment. Bosley or Hair Club for Men or accepting your fate (see Corzine picture) would have been better decisions, IMO. Just sayin'.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 17, 2009 9:28 AM | Report abuse

I had to go back and check very carefully, but Ted Strickland missed the list. That ought to distress the Ohio GOP most 'scurtiatin'. I guess even the Fix can't see any future to whomever the Republicans nominate, probably because the only plank for their platform will be "He didn't let us cut our taxes!" Ted, it seems, learned a lot from Gilligan. Just because the republicans expect a Democrat to term limit himself by being the adult and offering to get Ohio to pay its bills.

Do bet, though, that Ted, who is too old to wait out an interim governor and run again in 2018, will be a bit more Old Man Statesmanesque starting with the Legislature that convenes in 2011.

With luck and continued republican Support, (Husted and his dubious residency, for instance) there will be sizable pluralities of Democrats in both houses and Legislation will actually occur. (Note the study on fund raising functions that came off verses Legislative days that actually happened)

Posted by: ceflynline | October 17, 2009 9:22 AM | Report abuse

I had to go back and check very carefully, but Ted Strickland missed the list. That ought to distress the Ohio GOP most 'scurtiatin'. I guess even the Fix can't see any future to whomever the Republicans nominate, probably because the only plank for their platform will be "He didn't let us cut our taxes!" Ted, it seems, learned a lot from Gilligan. Just because the republicans expect a Democrat to term limit himself by being the adult and offering to get Ohio to pay its bills.

Do bet, though, that Ted, who is too old to wait out an interim governor and run again in 2018, will be a bit more Old Man Statesmanesque starting with the Legislature that convenes in 2011.

With luck and continued republican Support, (Husted and his dubious residency, for instance) there will be sizable pluralities of Democrats in both houses and Legislation will actually occur. (Note the study on fund raising functions that came off verses Legislative days that actually happened)

Posted by: ceflynline | October 17, 2009 9:17 AM | Report abuse

Don't know how many of the current posters recall the most annoyingly vapid poster here from the campaign last year---"37th and O"---who posted using that Georgetown address. He was truly clueless, but there is a current prominent poster who is very reminiscent of him. I always thought "37th and O" was most likely a House Republican staffer. Would not be surprised if one of the more prominently clueless conservative posters of more recent vintage is indeed "37th and O" with a different moniker.

Posted by: OHIOCITIZEN | October 16, 2009 10:07 PM
________
I hear you but I don't think so. Hall of Fame troll 37thandO's calling card was about of inch of white spacing between sentences. It's just like you knew you were reading "Dianne72" b/c of the racial slurs and her obsession with Michelle LaVaughan's alleged table manners.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 17, 2009 9:17 AM | Report abuse

Yeah, we finally got a CNN feed out here and Andersen Cooper was all over the "keeping them honest" Rick Perry edition. That was the first I'd heard of it; but I've been semi out of the loop.

That's amazing that you know Kay Bailey. I met her once, and liked her quite well. Not just because we are both conservatives; she's just a likeable, respectable woman.

Take care.

Aggie Hannah, class of 2027 is almost 8 mo's old.

Posted by: USMC_Mike | October 17, 2009 1:41 AM | Report abuse

"I wonder if Chris C has noticed how the comments here have dried up lately. The morning fix just stopped at 3 PM"

That may just be because people are tired of hearing about how much trouble Harry Reid is in.

But I read a lot of one-time comments from people who say they don't want to wade through the dreck of Jake and snowflake.
Posted by: drindl | October 16, 2009 8:20 PM | Report abuse


Another kook surveys the looking glass and spies...........Jake.

Posted by: snowbama | October 17, 2009 12:59 AM | Report abuse

There are more than two people who clog this place up with idiotic posts. Somehow you missed one.

I suppose he casts no reflection.

This place has now turned into moonbat central. Will someone please friend the lonely loser. He will be staring at the screen all night. Waiting. Waiting.

Posted by: snowbama | October 17, 2009 12:54 AM | Report abuse

AggieMike! Glad you are OK and hope you and your bride are doing well. I support KBH against Goodhair (she was my classmate from day one in law school and I have always admired how she conducted herself then, when she was one of six - then four, women in my section of 100). She has been reluctant to enter the fray and has stayed in DC and Goodhair has been gaining on her. However, the coverup on the Willingham execution is catching a lot of attention in the big city papers.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/6666318.html

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/opinion/viewpoints/stories/DN-woolley_16edi.State.Edition1.258f6f9.html

http://www.wfaa.com/sharedcontent/dws/wfaa/latestnews/stories/wfaa091015_mo_execution.21dba2c0d.html

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 17, 2009 12:36 AM | Report abuse

@mark: trolls with elaborate background lives are pretty common. They usually go too far with their successes and idyllic situations all of which is irreconcilable with the amount of time they spend online.

Successful people travel and enjoy their wealth.

Well-adjusted people don't do vicious sarcasm and mockery all day.

The one I took down claimed a GulfStream.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | October 17, 2009 12:22 AM | Report abuse

http://www.slate.com/id/2232563?nav=wp

Ignore Fox
Obama's right. It's time to stop taking the network's skewed news seriously.

Posted by: DDAWD | October 17, 2009 12:21 AM | Report abuse

Mark_In_Austin,

Just wanted to give you a shout out.

I'm in the Philippines for the natural disaster.

I haven't read the Fix in quite some time. How's the Lone Star State? I heard Rick Perry was gaining ground against his challenger...

Mike

Posted by: USMC_Mike | October 17, 2009 12:11 AM | Report abuse

Street Corner was tiresome. Svreader was the most inventive troll ever. He claimed to be: Jewish, a "PhD in EECS" from Berkeley, the founder of "many" Silicon Valley enterprises, one who had "hired-and-fired" Harvard grads including a President of the Harvard Law Review, knowledgeable of Chicago politics, a Washington D.C. insider, a multimillionaire who had lost a fortune by posting to blogs because he is not "compiling", the descendant of a family destroyed in the Holocaust which his grandfather escaped before the 'thirties, and one whose unparalleled access had allowed him to read an as-yet unpublished book, "Obama's Slums". He also claimed to have fought for civil rights his whole life, and claimed to be "to the left of" BHO, whom he acknowledged to be "to the right" of HRC. Svreader made broad based insulting claims about the "black community" and said that BHO hated whites. He posted six months of painful morning-to-evening fantasies that spun wildly out of his control.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 16, 2009 11:53 PM | Report abuse

Don't know how many of the current posters recall the most annoyingly vapid poster here from the campaign last year---"37th and O"---who posted using that Georgetown address. He was truly clueless, but there is a current prominent poster who is very reminiscent of him. I always thought "37th and O" was most likely a House Republican staffer. Would not be surprised if one of the more prominently clueless conservative posters of more recent vintage is indeed "37th and O" with a different moniker.

Posted by: OHIOCITIZEN | October 16, 2009 10:07 PM | Report abuse

About half the posts that idiot-boi does here are nothing more than invented pretexts to get out another instance of "pResident."

I guess he thinks that's really funny.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | October 16, 2009 9:37 PM | Report abuse

"I certainly don't feel like putting any real effort into posting here with those two creeps clogging this place up with idiot posts."

There are more than two people who clog this place up with idiotic posts. Somehow you missed one.

Posted by: Blarg | October 16, 2009 9:36 PM | Report abuse

But I read a lot of one-time comments from people who say they don't want to wade through the dreck of Jake and snowflake.

==

A lot of good posters have bailed. Can't say I blame them.

I certainly don't feel like putting any real effort into posting here with those two creeps clogging this place up with idiot posts.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | October 16, 2009 9:31 PM | Report abuse

Email intercept:

Jake: Mission Accomplished.

Snow: Indeed.

Jake: What's next? Are there any blogs in China or Afghanistan we can kill? Any on the Moon? Pluto? The Matrix?

Snow: There must be.

(c) Blog-killers International

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 16, 2009 9:07 PM | Report abuse

But I read a lot of one-time comments from people who say they don't want to wade through the dreck of Jake and snowflake.

==

Reading their crap, even seeing it, is corrosive to the soul

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | October 16, 2009 8:59 PM | Report abuse

@d: What? The 45 "Pawlenty in 2012" and GOP comeback posts here aren't a big draw? This "Jake's Place" now.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 16, 2009 8:33 PM | Report abuse

"I wonder if Chris C has noticed how the comments here have dried up lately. The morning fix just stopped at 3 PM"

That may just be because people are tired of hearing about how much trouble Harry Reid is in.

But I read a lot of one-time comments from people who say they don't want to wade through the dreck of Jake and snowflake.

Posted by: drindl | October 16, 2009 8:20 PM | Report abuse

Anita Dunn pushes back on Faux News; the NFL pushes back on Rush; and now...Warren Ballentine takes care of the disgraceful Juan Williams, best known as O'Reilly and Hannity's faithful AA companion.

Ballentine didn't take any prisoners.
Ballentine tells Juan Williams that "real black people" are offended by Rush Limbaugh. Ballentine also tells Williams to go back to the "porch."

Video:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2009/10/15/black_talk_host_to_juan_williams_real_black_people_are_offended_by_limbaugh.html

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 16, 2009 8:18 PM | Report abuse

Wow barrys approval already below 50. That was fast. And across the issues, strong dissatisfaction with his performance. Maybe a few less speeches. He turned in to Jimmy Carter faster than Jimmy Carter turned into Jimmy Carter.

Posted by: snowbama | October 16, 2009 6:59 PM
_

No legitimate poll shows BHO at below 50.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 16, 2009 8:04 PM | Report abuse

"Not going to happen in Jake's Place (formerly "The Fix").

Who ya gonna call? Blog-killers!
Sponsored by Jake and snow.

Posted by: broadwayjoe"

I wonder if Chris C has noticed how the comments here have dried up lately. The morning fix just stopped at 3 PM

Posted by: DDAWD | October 16, 2009 7:46 PM | Report abuse

agree with y'all that I wish Chris would do a piece analyzing the increasingly fractured Re party.

Posted by: drindl
__________

Not going to happen in Jake's Place (formerly "The Fix").

==

At least not till after a few hundred more improbably chipper "GOP Savior" columns.

Mitch Daniesls!! Tim Pawlenty!! SARAH PALIN!!!

I can't take it

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | October 16, 2009 7:39 PM | Report abuse

agree with y'all that I wish Chris would do a piece analyzing the increasingly fractured Re party.

Posted by: drindl
__________

Not going to happen in Jake's Place (formerly "The Fix").

Who ya gonna call? Blog-killers!
Sponsored by Jake and snow.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 16, 2009 7:29 PM | Report abuse

"got to be the worst case of projection today. the Dems who actually do have enough votes to pass anything they could ever agree on, still can't pass a thing. the repubs, who are supposedly confused and leaderless, stick together like glue and transmit a unified message of principled dissent"

You have to wonder if the Republicans' dismal electoral situation might be different today if they actually stood for their principles and showed some backbone and didn't simply rubber stamp everything that Bush wanted.

Posted by: DDAWD | October 16, 2009 7:25 PM | Report abuse

1. None of these races is a referendum on BHO. For instance, Deeds is losing 'cause he has run a non-campaign--few road signs, few ads, and no outreach to the base. Corzine will win 'cause he has run a great campaign, attacking his opponent for his ridiculous obesity and inappropriate govt-paid travel.

2. Unless you know differently, I would surprised if Linc Chafee doesn't caucus with the Dems, not the GOP. So that race should be a "D." Linc was practically kicked out of the GOP his last time in the Senate.

3. Great anti-Rush column today from the Post's Pulitzer Prize winner Gene Robinson, who's still waiting to be in "Fix Picks." Gene's best since "Where Wright Went Wrong."

An excerpt from Gene's "NFL Sacks Limbaugh":

"Rush Limbaugh, are you ready for some football?

Um, I guess not.

The right-wing radio host's attempt to become part-owner of the St. Louis Rams ended Wednesday when his fellow investors cut him from the squad. Rush got the bum's rush shortly after Roger Goodell, the commissioner of the National Football League, hinted strongly that His Loudness was most unwelcome."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/15/AR2009101502770.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
_________

At 8:00pm tonight on TCM, Charles McGraw in the film noir classic "Narrow Margin."

Posted by: broadwayjoe | October 16, 2009 7:24 PM | Report abuse

the repubs, who are supposedly confused and leaderless, stick together like glue and transmit a unified message of principled dissent.

==

supposedly leaderless?

(shades eyes, rotates head)

Limbaugh? Beck?

Romney?

Palin?

No "supposedly" about it.

As for opposition, good luck selling "principled." Pouting and whining and obstructing doesn't match any principle anyone would want to brag about.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | October 16, 2009 7:15 PM | Report abuse

Wow barrys approval already below 50. That was fast. And across the issues, strong dissatisfaction with his performance. Maybe a few less speeches. He turned in to Jimmy Carter faster than Jimmy Carter turned into Jimmy Carter.

Posted by: snowbama | October 16, 2009 6:59 PM | Report abuse

Another point here is that we are still a year away from the 2010 midterms and things can change. In particular if these three things happen prior to September 2010 the political climate could change noticeably:

1. Passage of Health Care Reform
2. Passage of Financial Regulatory Reform with strong consumer protections.
3. Economic Growth of 4% or more combined with a drop in unemployment.

The last factor is the most significant. If we are, in 2010, on the path toward 4% annual GDP growth and unemployment has peaked and started dropping (perhaps to about or even below 9%) the environment will be much better for Democrats. Also, the first two items above---passage of both health care and financial regulatory reform with strong consumer protections---will demonstrate Democratic competence in governance. Clear signs of economic recovery will reinforce that notion of competence.

Of course some major foreign policy success could also be pro-Democratic in nature, but it seems as though the midterms are going to be determined primarily on domestic issues.

Posted by: OHIOCITIZEN | October 16, 2009 5:57 PM | Report abuse

"Principled dissent", that's pretty funny, even for you, snow-clue.

Posted by: jasperanselm | October 16, 2009 4:56 PM | Report abuse

VA is counter cyclical, so I don't think too much can be read into that. A NJ lost would be painful, even if Corzine is a poor incumbent.

Missed you at Buzz today, CC. Bacon-egg brioche. Yummm....

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | October 16, 2009 4:53 PM | Report abuse

The federal budget deficit has surged to an all-time high of $1.42 trillion

finally something liberals are good at.

Posted by: snowbama | October 16, 2009 4:30 PM | Report abuse

agree with y'all that I wish Chris would do a piece analyzing the increasingly fractured Re party.

Posted by: drindl


got to be the worst case of projection today. the Dems who actually do have enough votes to pass anything they could ever agree on, still can't pass a thing. the repubs, who are supposedly confused and leaderless, stick together like glue and transmit a unified message of principled dissent.

Posted by: snowbama | October 16, 2009 4:23 PM | Report abuse

cefynline writes
"It is why, in differential equations, while the basic Diff EQ is bad enough, when you get into multivariable partials it all gets really iffy. You get more than one independent variable and you can't easily describe the system. So you do everything by partials, looking at only one variable at a time and treating the others as constants."

Right. In the spirit of that last point, ignore the dems & study the Repubs. There aren't many stories on the subject (though I did read a salon story earlier this week proposing that when Glenn Beck espouses a new theory / paranoia, GOP lawmakers are repeating the claim within days, if not hours). More to the point, commenters here have been speculating for a year and a half on 1) who leads the GOP and 2) where they're going. Thus far, the politicians aren't doing the leading, the talking heads are. But are there any voters going with them? Or I should say, are enough voters going with that they'll be competitive in future elections?

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 16, 2009 4:21 PM | Report abuse

I see the liberal mutual admiration society is back in full swing with the deranged lunatic drivl leading the charge to oblivion. It is not that I mind liberal opinions and "thought", it is just that sampling the fellow loons and coming up brilliant has some issues with the actual veracity.

when you only speak to a 99% liberal crowd, you can expect dwindling ideas, lower ratings, lots of hate and envy and a load of chanting. Just ask NBC and NYTimes.

But where is CF8? not even annoyance potential here without your adversaries present?

Posted by: snowbama | October 16, 2009 4:17 PM | Report abuse

"It is why, in differential equations, while the basic Diff EQ is bad enough, when you get into multivariable partials it all gets really iffy. You get more than one independent variable and you can't easily describe the system. So you do everything by partials, looking at only one variable at a time and treating the others as constants."

This is exactly what happened in the breakdown of the rating process for MBS and the associated Credit Default Swaps. The financial "products" contained so many different co-variable assumptions, bets/promises that the risk could not be modeled without pretending (or the pretense) that they did not.

Still, I think The Fix is capable of this as a political exercise, even if the rest of journalism isn't.

([sotto voce] lets all blow smoke at him and see if he will try)

Posted by: shrink2 | October 16, 2009 4:10 PM | Report abuse

" shrink2 writes This Republican split should get some more coverage as it hardens into camps organized around the R primaries." Is it the insular nature of inside-the-beltway thinking that keeps the media from seeing these trends? Or mere habit of framing everything in a D vs R format, ignoring that neither party is ideologically monolithic? Posted by: bsimon1 "

I think that it is more like journalists only have two hands.

It is why, in differential equations, while the basic Diff EQ is bad enough, when you get into multivariable partials it all gets really iffy. You get more than one independent variable and you can't easily describe the system. So you do everything by partials, looking at only one variable at a time and treating the others as constants.

The Center is totally off the republicans RADAR, and even the somewhat right of center is purely taken for granted, and still the GOP is in autodestruct mode as it seeks ideological purity.

The Dems, for whom organization isn't even a theoretical construct drift over and pick up the center if it is available, but are still wedded to enough of the left that they can't solidify their control of the center. (Should the Clintonite wing ever get solid control of the Party the country will be run by centrists calling themselves Democrats for most of the rest of eternity. They only need about 40% of the electorate to do that.)

Unless the political punditry starts channeling Tevye, they are limited to just A and not A for their discussions and will always miss more than they hit because of that.

Posted by: ceflynline | October 16, 2009 3:57 PM | Report abuse

Meanwhile, the CT Senate race should be R-rated fun. Oppo researchers are having a fine time with Linda McMahon.

"In a release today, the Connecticut Democratic Party sent reporters links to WWE videos they say objectify women. Among the videos are wrestlers engaged in a simulated rape, a public sex scene and one depicting a wrestler having sex with a corpse. Warning, the video clips are very much not safe for work.

The party quoted McMahon as saying the WWE programming is "fun."

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/10/ct-dems-find-racy-wwe-clips-they-say-suggest-mcmahon-condones-necrophilia-sex-in-public.php?ref=fpb

"objectify' is a mild word for it.

Posted by: drindl | October 16, 2009 3:55 PM | Report abuse

ceflynline, you are saying the Republicans can and will put themselves back together again for the general elections. I'm wondering whether that is true.

A late stage Kumbaya farce may not be able to mobilize the vote from the losing side.
Remember how nasty the Clinton base got as Obama overtook them? Their positions were not even distinguishable on most issues. Apparently they got on board, but the current Republican situation, for example, in Florida and NY23 seems like an extraordinary gamble.

Posted by: shrink2 | October 16, 2009 3:51 PM | Report abuse

Except for guessing the Virginia and New Jersey races, which may be possible, this speculation is particularly premature, because every major race next year hangs on what happens this month. Passing a Health care bill, and deciding on more stimulus money would give the democrats country wide an awful lot of ammunition to take into next years rounds of elections. The Health care Bill MIGHT make all the difference in Virginia, for that matter.

Trying to read money as a surrogate for electability can't mean as much as it used to, because there is SO much money available from conservative sources that are willing to back real losers to keep the moderates and progressives in check in the Republican Party (including backing guaranteed losers in primaries where centrist Republicans might otherwise be tempted to stray from the Party line to keep party discipline) that its abundance this early only means that the Really Rich conservatives aren't feeling the effects of the GWB prosperity yet.

JANUARY, on the other hand, will be a good time to look at where electoral vectors seem to be pulling the polling.

Posted by: ceflynline | October 16, 2009 3:37 PM | Report abuse

That's exactly it, Ohio. These people have stayed in the same place and the party keeps getting further right and extremist, turning swing, independent and moderate voters off.

It's sort of like when you meet someone at a party who starts prattling on about socialism and birther nonsense, and you look over your shoulder and start backng slowly away...

I wonder about Florida too -- Crist and Rubio. Rubio's not loony, although he is much further right than Crist, but he doesn't have much money. If he were to win the primary, might the D have a chance there too?

I agree with y'all that I wish Chris would do a piece analyzing the increasingly fractured Re party.

Posted by: drindl | October 16, 2009 3:32 PM | Report abuse

OHIOCITIZEN, do you do politics for a living?

You should have a web site where you do brain dumps for those of us on the periphery (i.e. rural Oregon). Oh I forgot, that is what this is.

Posted by: shrink2 | October 16, 2009 3:29 PM | Report abuse

mt, exactly! That is the book!

Pandora did not create the contents of the box, she just could not bear the idea of leaving it alone.

People like me used to laugh at these people, every day they seemed to get sillier.

I remember I made all kinds of clever jokes about ignorant bigots, as if they were all just a bunch of racists who could not deal with a black couple doing it in the White House.

But whatever they are, they have decided to stay on as more than a punch line.

Obviously when the Tea Baggers heckle at Democratic Town Halls, that is well, what you expect. But these people can no longer see the difference between Lindsay Graham and John Kerry.

This is getting interesting.

Posted by: shrink2 | October 16, 2009 3:26 PM | Report abuse

There has already been talk that both Bennett of Utah and Grassley of Iowa could face Republican Primary challenges next year from far-right, or "fringe" candidates. Bennett and Grassley are reliably conservative, and certainly in the mainstream of the Senate Republican Caucus as a whole, but there is no way they could be characterized as far-right like Inhofe, DeMint, Coburn, Vitter, Sessions or even someone like Kyl who has an almost perfectly conservative voting record according to National Journal but who I am unsure exactly qualifies as far-right in the way those others listed do.

One of the ironies with the rightward shift of the Republican Party over the past 30 years is not only the disappearance of Republican liberals like Weicker, Matthias, Case, and Javits, and the near-disappearance of Republican moderates like Hatfield, Jeffords, Chafee, Packwood, and Snowe, but the fact that when conservatives like Hatch and Grassley were first elected in 1978 and 1980 respectively, they were among the most conservative Senators.

Hatch and Grassley were among the far-right Senators of the early 1980s. The fact they are now regarded as mere mainstream conservatives with reputations as serious legislators says much more about the Republican Party than it does about them. Hatch and Grassley are just as conservative now as then, but the Party has shifted rightward leaving them basically in the middle of their party rather than at the right pole.

Posted by: OHIOCITIZEN | October 16, 2009 3:22 PM | Report abuse

"I'd like to see a Line on Republican primaries across political offices, wherever these battles are being joined. It seems to me it this is a crucial development in the Republican Rising! story."


I agree. In the chat, el Fix mentioned that Jindal will likely sit out the 2012 POTUS race. That seems like a smart move to me; hanging back and letting others take the hits in the battle for party control. A guy like Pawlenty is happy to jump into the trenches & give up his moderate persona in pursuit of the party activists; its his only real chance at this point. He doesn't have enough cachet in the party to set a bold new course & instead is trying to become the darling of the voices pulling the party further & further out of the mainstream.

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 16, 2009 3:20 PM | Report abuse

shrink2:

John McCain = Pandora?

Posted by: mnteng | October 16, 2009 3:18 PM | Report abuse

again Cilizza, I've not seen you this excited since Clay Akins put on some tights to play the lead in Spamalot.

Posted by: angriestdogintheworld | October 16, 2009 3:14 PM | Report abuse

"...a political gamble to boost excitement in the R ranks."

Ho ho! A gamble indeed. A book idea for sure.

Just look at the new twist on excitement, the distorted faces of the town hall people, like a menacing Picasso. It all began there at the back of the Palin stump speeches. Now they are not going away.

Posted by: shrink2 | October 16, 2009 3:13 PM | Report abuse

"If NY-23 doesn't get much play, how much attention do you think the East Coast media elite will pay to MN politics?"

good point. Which may also explain the surprise each election night when more seats change hands than the pundits expected.

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 16, 2009 3:09 PM | Report abuse

"FYI kicking out the Becks and Limbaughs would be a FASTER losing direction."

I'll call this Exhibit A. If you are correct, this is what McCain saw when he went with Palin, I am sure of it (right about it?, who knows, but I am sure ;}.

So what happens to the party is this, the battle has to get fought and it has to end with winners and losers.

ChrisC, I'd like to see a Line on Republican primaries across political offices, wherever these battles are being joined. It seems to me it this is a crucial development in the Republican Rising! story.

Posted by: shrink2 | October 16, 2009 3:07 PM | Report abuse

shrink2:

I thought I saw an AP report on Steve Schmidt the other day (yesterday?) that seemed to indicate that the Palin pick was purely a political gamble to boost excitement in the R ranks.

Ah, here's the link.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hmbbcw_7P64MsyO7-MIrvzAPqKmQD9BB9JD00

Posted by: mnteng | October 16, 2009 2:59 PM | Report abuse

bsimon1:

Good question.

I think we've seen some media coverage of the internecine battles among the Ds over health care, so it can't be as simplistic as R vs. D. But maybe that only gets covered because it is inside the beltway. If NY-23 doesn't get much play, how much attention do you think the East Coast media elite will pay to MN politics?

Posted by: mnteng | October 16, 2009 2:55 PM | Report abuse

FYI kicking out the Becks and Limbaughs would be a FASTER losing direction.

Posted by: JakeD | October 16, 2009 2:53 PM | Report abuse

Exactly shrink. When someone like Lindsay Graham starts being heckled as a liberal by his own party, you know they have a problem.

I am quite sure that many like him in the R establishment are starting to realize that and fight back against the Becks and Limbaugh for taking their party in an extreme and losing direction, but i'm afraid the genie is out of the bottle.

Posted by: drindl | October 16, 2009 2:48 PM | Report abuse

"Is it the insular nature of inside-the-beltway thinking that keeps the media from seeing these trends? Or mere habit of framing everything in a D vs R format, ignoring that neither party is ideologically monolithic?"

I think so, bsimon. I think the MSM in general tends to think of it from purely left -vs. right or liberal vs. conservative. I don't think they are really seeing this trend wherein really far right challengers are challenging reliably rightwing incumbents, with the end result being a win for Ds.

As I read a little while ago..

"All of this leads to the conclusion the Republicans have become victims of the very thing which allowed their ascendancy in the first place -- the Echo Chamber. They have trained their base to need more and more hyperbolic accusations and demons to be satisfied. This has lead them to have to say and support things which those outside of their base find increasingly crazy. It drives Independents and Moderates away, because they do not get all of their news from inside the Echo Chamber they know many of the things they are being told by the Republicans are just not true."

Posted by: drindl | October 16, 2009 2:42 PM | Report abuse

dunno bsimon, I wonder too.

It seems like there are lots of articles on Obama's problem with "the left" on the Public Option, etc. But in the electoral arena, there is still not much revealed insight as to why McCain chose Palin. Not whether it was a good idea, we know that it was not, but what a specific and peculiar choice that was and most important, what it spawned.

It was supposed to bring the Rs together, but their little feud has turned into something bizarre. It has split the party. That Lindsay Graham thing on You Tube I cited earlier is really frightening, to me more if you are a Republican than if you are a Democrat.

Posted by: shrink2 | October 16, 2009 2:33 PM | Report abuse

I've only watched a couple hours of TV here, mostly Fox and FX. I didn't see any governor ads. I also haven't heard any political radio ads, though I haven't listened to many radio ads at all.

Posted by: Blarg | October 16, 2009 2:31 PM | Report abuse

A total guess, but I'll bet its because the phrase was coined when people commuted mostly by public transport and those news reels of thousands of people pouring out of Penn and Grand Central each morning (like ant drones when their colony gets a jolt) were created.

Posted by: shrink2 | October 16, 2009 2:26 PM | Report abuse

shrink2 writes
"This Republican split should get some more coverage as it hardens into camps organized around the R primaries."

Is it the insular nature of inside-the-beltway thinking that keeps the media from seeing these trends? Or mere habit of framing everything in a D vs R format, ignoring that neither party is ideologically monolithic?

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 16, 2009 2:23 PM | Report abuse

shrink, why don't we rename "rush hour" to "crawl time"?

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 16, 2009 2:13 PM | Report abuse

This Republican split should get some more coverage as it hardens into camps organized around the R primaries.

It all started with a serious (legacy) politician like McCain, seeing what was happening, he tried to get together with Palin...it did not work.

Now they are choosing up sides, splitting the money with corporate wealth going to the usual suspects, but the base is betting what is left of its money on the nut bars.
It is going to get ugly for awhile.

Of course I think the radical right will lose in the end and politicians who have not gotten into pandering to the psychosis of the base will lead the party to the next Republican POTUS...many years from now.

Posted by: shrink2 | October 16, 2009 2:13 PM | Report abuse

I'm driving out to Hoboken on Sunday, so I'll be interested to see how effective the outdoor media buy is from a marketer's standpoint.

Posted by: drindl | October 16, 2009 2:02 PM | Report abuse

Blarg, do you have your TV on?

N.B. About a half mile before you dive into the Holland Tunnel there is a Corzine billboard on the left. But you have to be in a cab to see it because it is way too dangerous to look away right there if you are driving - except if its the rush hours.

Posted by: shrink2 | October 16, 2009 1:56 PM | Report abuse

Blarg:

You're probably not watching enough TV.

Posted by: mnteng | October 16, 2009 1:52 PM | Report abuse

But this is the key in terms of losing elections:

By contrast, Democracy Corps also interviewed a separate group of somewhat conservative-leaning swing voters, and these attitudes were not to be found: "One of the most telling differences between the partisan Republican groups and the independent groups was the language they used. Conservative Republicans fully embrace the 'socialism' attacks on Obama and believe it is the best, most accurate framework for describing him and his agenda. Independents largely dismiss these attacks as the kind of overblown partisan rhetoric that obscures the facts and only serves to cheapen the political discourse."

and..

"Conservatives see themselves as an oppressed minority, holding on to knowledge that isn't represented in the wider media and culture: "Conservative Republicans passionately believe that they represent a group of people who have been targeted by a popular culture and set of liberal elites - embodied in the liberal mainstream media - that mock their values and are actively working to advance the downfall of the things that matter most to them in their lives - their faith, their families, their country, and their freedom."

Classic paranoia and narcissism.

Posted by: drindl | October 16, 2009 1:46 PM | Report abuse

Whomever is the GOP candidate for MN governor will have a tough row to hoe. Strange, though, that The Fix's sources mention Coleman, who's already lost that race once, while ignoring ostensible front-runner Marty Seifert, who's in the news today for vowing to not run for reelection to the Lege (where he's currently minority leader), whether he wins his party's gubernatorial nomination or not.

So, why does the GOP face a tough fight in MN? The crux of the problem is Gov Pawlenty's go-it-alone strategy of unallotment. Rather than follow the usual process of having legislatros write law & he sign or veto it, he declined to call a special session to fix the budget shortfall created by signing spending bills (including new spending), while vetoing the revenue bills that would have balanced the budget. Gov Pawlenty instead used MN's unique 'unallotment' process to arbitrarily & unilaterally adjust the budget to his liking. MPR covers one impact of that decision in this story:
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/10/15/gamc-program-cut/

The nutshell summary is Gov Pawlenty cut the budget for General Assistance Medical Coverage (GAMC) at the same time we're in a recession & people are losing their jobs, and thus their healthcare, and thus qualify for the program that helps them pay medical bills. And thus the would-be President chooses to balance the budget not by increasing revenue, but by kicking people when they're down.

By the time we get to November 2010, the MN Republican party is going to have a hard time scaring up the plurality of voters it will take to retain the Gov's office. The Dems just may have learned their lesson about nominating an electable candidate & will likely choose Mpls mayor RT Ryback or House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher. Either will beat Seifert or Coleman.

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 16, 2009 1:44 PM | Report abuse

Whomever is the GOP candidate for MN governor will have a tough row to hoe. Strange, though, that The Fix's sources mention Coleman, who's already lost that race once, while ignoring ostensible front-runner Marty Seifert, who's in the news today for vowing to not run for reelection to the Lege (where he's currently minority leader), whether he wins his party's gubernatorial nomination or not.

So, why does the GOP face a tough fight in MN? The crux of the problem is Gov Pawlenty's go-it-alone strategy of unallotment. Rather than follow the usual process of having legislatros write law & he sign or veto it, he declined to call a special session to fix the budget shortfall created by signing spending bills (including new spending), while vetoing the revenue bills that would have balanced the budget. Gov Pawlenty instead used MN's unique 'unallotment' process to arbitrarily & unilaterally adjust the budget to his liking. MPR covers one impact of that decision in this story:
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2009/10/15/gamc-program-cut/

The nutshell summary is Gov Pawlenty cut the budget for General Assistance Medical Coverage (GAMC) at the same time we're in a recession & people are losing their jobs, and thus their healthcare, and thus qualify for the program that helps them pay medical bills. And thus the would-be President chooses to balance the budget not by increasing revenue, but by kicking people when they're down.

By the time we get to November 2010, the MN Republican party is going to have a hard time scaring up the plurality of voters it will take to retain the Gov's office. The Dems just may have learned their lesson about nominating an electable candidate & will likely choose Mpls Gov RT Ryback or House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher. Either will beat Seifert or Coleman.

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 16, 2009 1:44 PM | Report abuse

As an aside, this is an interesting piece about the paranoia of the far right:

'A new focus-group of Republican base voters by the Democracy Corps (D), the consulting and polling outfit headed up by James Carville and Stan Greenberg, presents a picture of the GOP base as being motivated by a fundamentally different worldview than folks in the middle or on the Dem side -- and they see the country as being under a dire threat.

"They believe Obama is ruthlessly advancing a 'secret agenda' to bankrupt the United States and dramatically expand government control to an extent nothing short of socialism," the analysis said." While these voters are disdainful of a Republican Party they view to have failed in its mission, they overwhelmingly view a successful Obama presidency as the destruction of this country's founding principles and are committed to seeing the president fail."

The analysis argues that Obama's unpopularity among conservative Republicans is both quantitatively and qualitatively different from liberal Democratic ire against George W. Bush -- that the GOP is more heavily conservative than the Democrats are heavily liberal, and that the hatred of Obama is more intense than Dem hatred of Bush was. All of this adds up to a powerful set of emotions that the Republican Party as a whole cannot ignore."

Posted by: drindl | October 16, 2009 1:43 PM | Report abuse

STRONG SPRINGSTEEN ENDORSEMENT COULD TIP SCALES TO CORZINE... WHY ISN'T THE BOSS SINGING HIS TUNE?

• Is it because the Corzine camp hasn't asked for the business?


Will Bill Clinton ask Bruce Springsteen to tour Jersey with him in a last-chance power drive for Corzine?

Will the Boss finally school Chris Christie, a fawning Springsteen fan...

http://nytimes.com/2009/09/30/nyregion/30springsteen.html

...on the real meaning of his music, and why Christie looks like a hypocrite by embracing Bruce's catalog?

And will Bubba ever acknowledge that the seeds of the "vast right-wing conspiracy" may have been planted on HIS watch? Consider this:

***

Congress: "First, Do No Harm." Take Down the Bush-Cheney Era "Torture Matrix."

SILENT, HARMFUL MICROWAVE AND LASER DIRECTED ENERGY WEAPONS DEPLOYED AGAINST AMERICAN CITIZENS BY MULTI-AGENCY FED PROGRAM

• Physical and Neurological Impairment Under the Cover of Telecommunications (cell tower installations), "Less-Lethal" Law Enforcement Weaponry

http://nowpublic.com/world/gestapo-usa-govt-funded-vigilante-network-terrorizes-america OR http://NowPublic.com/scrivener RE: GESTAPO USA

Posted by: scrivener50 | October 16, 2009 1:42 PM | Report abuse

I'm in NJ right now for work. I haven't seen any evidence of a gubernatorial campaign. I've seen signs for local elections (mayor, town council, etc.), but nothing for the big race. That's surprising, considering that there are 3 candidates who are spending a ton of money on the race.

Posted by: Blarg | October 16, 2009 1:35 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: JakeD | October 16, 2009 1:28 PM | Report abuse

In a potentially devastating revelation, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported an e-mail sent by New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine’s deputy chief of staff to Corzine’s cabinet officials apparently urging them to make false claims that Corzine’s policies were creating jobs.

...

Christie pounced on the report. In comments on the e-mail, Christie highlighted New Jersey’s unemployment rate, which is the highest in the Northeast.

“While Jon Corzine is busy looking for a creative way to spin New Jersey's rising unemployment number into a campaign event, I'm traveling the state talking about how I will bring businesses and permanent jobs back to New Jersey,” Christie said in a campaign statement.

“Orchestrating events to tout the creation of nonexistent jobs is not going to change the fact we are inching even closer to a 10% unemployment rate. Struggling New Jerseyans deserve more from their governor than someone who tries to hide his failure behind smoke, mirrors and campaign events.”

The Christie campaign hit hard too, charging Corzine with deceptive campaigning and improperly using his official office for campaign activities.

“It’s very concerning that Governor Corzine appears to be using taxpayer-funded government workers to help assemble campaign-type events for his election,” Christie campaign manager Bill Stepien said. “The Governor has some serious questions to answer.”

Posted by: JakeD | October 16, 2009 1:27 PM | Report abuse

What it means:

If my side loses, it's all local. If my side wins, it's a referendum on how out of touch the other side is.

Fill in your own biases.

Posted by: sourpuss | October 16, 2009 1:22 PM | Report abuse

Don't count your chickens just yet: BofA and GE earnings reports send stock market tumbling ...

Posted by: JakeD | October 16, 2009 1:13 PM | Report abuse

So Corzine gets the Perot Effect. Whatever works.

Posted by: GoldAndTanzanite | October 16, 2009 1:06 PM | Report abuse

I think it's pretty hard to argue against both states going for pResident Obama less than a year ago -- analogies to midterm elections are off by another year -- but the fact that they are competitive in each is a sign of Obama's faltering appeal among the electorate. Why won't they let Obama campaign for the Dems in these States?

Posted by: JakeD | October 16, 2009 1:00 PM | Report abuse

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