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Friday Senate Line: Democrats' Demographic Edge


The Senate is the new House, as current and former Representatives seek membership into the world's most exclusive club. Clockwise from top left: Charlie Melancon, Rob Simmons, Mark Kirk, Mike Castle, Paul Hodes, Roy Blunt, Robert Portman and Pat Toomey. (AP/Getty Images)


The last month has been kind to Senate Republicans.

Top tier candidates in Illinois and New Hampshire have decided to run on the Republican and primaries have grown clearer -- or at least less messy -- in Missouri and Florida.

That said, what the coverage of the Senate playing field tends to overlook is that Democrats are on offense in three swing states -- New Hampshire, Missouri and Ohio -- and the places they are playing defense -- Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Delaware -- all tend to favor Democrats in varying degrees at the federal level.

Do the underpinning demographics ensure that Democrats will win the aforementioned seats? No. Extenuating circumstances always matter -- witness Sen. Chris Dodd's (D) vulnerability in a state that gave President Obama 61 percent of the vote in 2008.

The simple fact remains, however, that of the five Democratic states on this month's Line, Obama won them all and took over 60 percent of the vote in three of the five. Contrast that with the five Republican-held seats where Obama won two (New Hampshire and Ohio) and narrowly lost a third (Missouri).

As always, the number one ranked race on the Line -- a new one this month! -- is the most likely to switch party control in 2010. Kudos and criticisms are welcome in the comments section below.

To the Line!

Moving Off the Line: Nevada, North Carolina
Moving Onto the Line: Louisiana, Illinois

10. Delaware (Democratic-controlled): No race on the Line is more dependent on the decision of one candidate than this one. If Rep. Mike Castle (R) runs, Republicans have an even money shot of winning. If he doesn't, they have close to no shot. Castle isn't tipping his hand although the $125,000 he raised over the past three months isn't exactly confidence-inspiring. (Previous ranking: 10)

9. Louisiana (Republican-controlled): Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) is almost certainly running, a major recruiting success for national Democrats in the race against Sen. David Vitter (R). Democrats believe Vitter's admission of involvement in the "D.C. Madam" prostitution scandal makes him inherently vulnerable and they're probably right. But, Vitter, a savvy politician, is doing everything he can to make it tough on Melancon to run; he raked in $1.2 million over the past three months and ended June with more than $3 million on hand. Still, if Melancon runs (and we expect him too), national Democrats will pour money into the state and this race will almost certainly move up the Line. (Previous ranking: N/A)

8. Illinois (D): No state has seen Republican prospects brighten over the last month more than in Illinois. First, state Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D) resisted White House entreaties to run, then Rep. Mark Kirk (R), after deciding not to run, reconsidered and entered the race. And, of course, Sen. Roland Burris (D) announced he would not seek a full term. With the dust now settled in Illinois (for the moment), the open seat race looks likely to pit Kirk against state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) although Merchandise Mart CEO Chris Kennedy (D) continues to consider bids for Senate and governor. This race is a real chance for Republicans despite the state's clear Democratic lean. (Previous ranking: N/A)

7. Colorado (D): Sen. Michael Bennet (D) should be ranked higher on the Line. A surprise pick to replace Interior Secretary Ken Salazar, Bennet is nearly unknown statewide and has seemed tentative in his new job -- witness his "performance" on the gun amendment offered by Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) earlier this week. And yet, Republicans can't seem to get their act together. The second quarter fundraising performances by Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck were meager, and state Republicans seem more focused on beating Gov. Bill Ritter (D) next year than they do on Bennet. This should be a top five race. It isn't there yet. (Previous ranking: 6)

6. Ohio (R): Republicans have reason to feel good about where they stand in the Buckeye State's open seat race. Former Rep. Rob Portman (R) continues to prove himself to be in a class of his own in terms of fundraising in the race; his $1.7 million raised in the second quarter was hundreds of thousands more than the combined total collected by Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D). While Brunner continues to insist she is staying in the race, her back-to-back lackluster fundraising periods send a different message. Democrats acknowledge that Fisher is not the most charismatic candidate in the world but believe Portman's time spent in the Bush administration will come back to haunt him next November. (Previous ranking: 5)

5. Pennsylvania (D): A Quinnipiac poll released earlier this week that showed Sen. Arlen Specter (D) and former Rep. Pat Toomey (R) in a dead heat was a real eye-opener. We continue to believe that Toomey's public statements on a wide variety of red-meat conservative issues can and will be used against him in next year's general election. But, as we wrote in this space on Wednesday, the primary battle between Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak (D) should keep Toomey in the game. And, regardless of what polling in the primary shows today, most Democratic strategists we talk to expect a VERY close race if Sestak ultimately runs against the party-switching Specter. (Previous ranking: 7)

4. Missouri (R): Rep. Roy Blunt (R) has nicely turned his campaign around over the past few months -- getting his fundraising house in order and seemingly clearing the primary field of serious primary opponents. That said, this race is still a major problem for Republicans. Democrats are pounding Blunt over his statement that Republicans don't need an alternative health care plan, and Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is regarded as one of Democrats' best candidates in 2010. Given the narrowly divided partisan nature of the Show Me State, this race is almost certain to be very close. (Previous ranking: 4)

3. New Hampshire (R): Former state attorney general Kelly Ayotte's (R) decision to run for the seat being vacated by Sen. Judd Gregg (R) is a recruiting success for Republicans -- she is well known and well liked in the Granite State. But, Ovide LaMontagne, who was the GOP's gubernatorial nominee in 1996, seems to be moving toward a bid and could find traction among New Hampshire Republicans by running to the ideological right of Ayotte in a primary. Rep. Paul Hodes (D) bounced back from a lackluster first fundraising quarter to collect more than $700,000 between April 1 and June 30. If national Republicans can get Ayotte through a primary this race could well drop down the Line. But, that is a big "if" at the moment. (Previous ranking: 3)

2. Kentucky (R): Jim Bunning. Say those two words to any Republican operative in either Washington or Kentucky and you will get an eye roll and a shrug of the shoulders. No one knows what the Republican Senator has planned for 2010 although his second straight weak fundraising quarter suggests that he will ultimately see the writing on the wall and back out. Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) stands ready to fill in, and the $600,000 he raised in limited fundraising over the past three months suggests he would be a credible replacement. The real star of the race at the moment, however, is state Attorney General Jack Conway (D) who raised $1.3 million in the second fundraising quarter to make clear that he is the favorite in next year's primary against Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo. (Previous ranking: 1)

1. Connecticut (D): Sen. Chris Dodd (D) takes over the number one spot on the Line in the wake of a new independent poll that shows that just more than one-third of Connecticut voters believe he is honest and trustworthy. Those kind of numbers are extremely difficult to bounce back from, particularly since Dodd is a well known commodity in the Nutmeg State and has spent the last month running television ads to reintroduce himself to voters -- to little effect. Many Democrats believe privately that Dodd will ultimately decide against seeking re-election but those closest to the incumbent insist that is not an option. Former Rep. Rob Simmons is the favorite for the Republican nomination although former Ambassador Tom Foley is expected to run a serious campaign. No matter who emerges as the Republican nominee, the race will be a referendum on Dodd. And that is a big problem for Democrats. (Previous ranking: 2)

By Chris Cillizza  |  July 24, 2009; 11:25 AM ET
Categories:  The Line  
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Comments

With regard to Pennsylvania, remember this: Western Pennsylvania democrats include a lot of classic "Reagan Democrats" - Catholics with socially conservative views on abortion and marriage, to name a few. This region went for George Wallace in the 60's.

A lot of these voters I'm talking about are union members or were union members, and at least at one time favored a robust economic interventionism by government, and may be particularly disgusted at economic recovery efforts which include billions for Wall Street and nothing for steel mills.

Were President Obama to fail to pass some form of national health care before 2010, I can envision these folks going almost 100 per cent Republican.

They have no built in loyalty to former Philadelphia DA Specter.

To fully understand them (if such a thing is possible) you'd have to sleep with *What's the Matter with Kansas* under your pillow for a year while limiting your diet to pork and sauerkraut, pierogies, and fried fish sandwiches slathered in tartar sauce which has never been touched by the dreaded sweet pickle.

Posted by: douglaslbarber | July 27, 2009 9:23 PM | Report abuse

Bethlehem, PA Mayor John Callahan announceed his intention on Saturday to run against incumbent Representative Charlie Dent (R-PA-15).

Link:
http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-callahan-congress-0725cn,0,5421347.story

This one could get interesting, Chris.

Posted by: NativeNorthernVirginian | July 27, 2009 1:46 PM | Report abuse

Bright Start has had problems since day 1 -- Oppenheimer has not been the best of fund managers. Every investment account lost money - you'd be hard pressed to find one that did not suffer losses.
In your mind who IS "experienced" enough? Kirk, from my limited research, never spoke out against the lack of regulation et al.
"Mark Kirk has voted with a majority of his Republican colleagues 86.8% of the time during the current Congress."
" They view his voting record in Congress over five two-year terms, siding with the party often but breaking away on environmental and social issues, as a perfect mix to win statewide office in the Democratic state." -- this tells me he was a flunkie when his party controlled the house/senate/WH.

Posted by: ILDem | July 27, 2009 1:37 PM | Report abuse

Last year the state’s $2-billion Bright Start college savings program lost $85 million of our hard-earned saving under Mr. Giannoulias’ watch. Now considering the fact that this country is over a trillion dollars in debt and the economy is in one of the worst states it has been in during the past 50 years, I want a senator who is a lot more qualified then Giannoulias. I have always been a democrat voter, but this is going to be the first time I don't vote down party lines. One of the other main problems this state has right now is corruption. Alexi’s family bank that his parents started gives out big loans to criminals with ties to the mob. That scares me. If he can’t handle the job as state treasurer, I don’t think it’s possible that he can handle being a senator, and we need a very good senator to fix this extremely corrupt state that is in a deep economic hole. Giannoulias simply does not have enough experience to be the senator this state needs right now.

Posted by: vanosrapidamente | July 27, 2009 12:23 PM | Report abuse

@bsimon - I beg to differ. I think the decisive blow in the presidential races was the Florida primary, which was closed and ended the Guiliani candidacy. The big fish on Super Tuesday was California, which had 173 delegates and McCain won.

The primary (heh) reason that the cross-over thesis fails is that there was a compelling contest on the Democratic side. I argue that potential cross-over voters stayed home to vote for Obama or Clinton. I voted for the lady, myself.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | July 26, 2009 4:05 PM | Report abuse

correction: should be "your assessments."

Posted by: Kelly14 | July 25, 2009 4:52 PM | Report abuse

Bookmarked this on. You're assessments of Missouri are right on.

Posted by: Kelly14 | July 25, 2009 4:50 PM | Report abuse

This is why I laugh every time I hear that the "r" party has a good chance in IL. My local state rep thinks he can be lt. gov. - just wait until the sweetheart deal he got re: his land. $900K+ from the state (taxpayers), to "preserve" it BUT he gets to run a private club on it. Ya think ALL are welcome to enjoy the "preserved" land?

Posted by: ILDem | July 25, 2009 10:29 AM | Report abuse

“We’re going to be looking for other people to run. It’s going to be an effort to find someone who’s a true fiscal conservative and also respects our social values. I don’t think Kirk can win,” she said, because conservatives won’t work for him."

==

"Kirk is nutty or bigoted enough for us"

Yeah, our "social values," meaning you need to hate all the right people if you want to run as a Republican.

What a miserable shabby party they've become

Posted by: chrisfox8 | July 25, 2009 1:44 AM | Report abuse

I'd be real surprised if Kirk makes it out of the primary. And if he does, they'll cannibalize him like they did Baar-Topinka. My county puke party leader is already whining about him - she's not liking his vote on cap and trade, pro-choice, gay rights, & stem cell research:

“We’re going to be looking for other people to run. It’s going to be an effort to find someone who’s a true fiscal conservative and also respects our social values. I don’t think Kirk can win,” she said, because conservatives won’t work for him."

Posted by: ILDem | July 25, 2009 12:06 AM | Report abuse

I agree with chrisfox8, I'm really tired of Chris' constant posts about resurgent Republicans and who the biggest Republicans are right now.

I agree with most of the Line today. Robert Menendez (Chairman of the DSCC) really needs to pick up his recruitment efforts. Alexi Giannoulias looks great at first but it is never a good idea to be a state's Treasurer and run for higher office during an economic recession. Paul Hodes looks great on paper but he may be too liberal for NH. And if Chris Dodd's numbers don't improve soon Democrats should pressure him to retire.

Posted by: fable104 | July 24, 2009 10:20 PM | Report abuse

You have got to be kidding me.

No way Dodd wins the primary but loses the seat.

Sorry but you are just flat overrating CT and underrating NH and MO

Posted by: drachedeeis | July 24, 2009 5:26 PM | Report abuse

chris never talks about my state...
it's a mess, but i guess he wouldn't
cause it's not really a race down here.

how do these states rank on same sex marriage?

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | July 24, 2009 4:56 PM | Report abuse

"But Obama has painstakingly made the case that employment would be the last to recover, and that the economic problems we're having are the result of Republican policies."

Do you have that much faith in an electorate that voted in Bush twice? I don't. Of course, Obama's words will help, but if you're a Republican inclined voter and voting Democrat hasn't helped your situation, then why keep voting Democrat?

Posted by: DDAWD | July 24, 2009 4:35 PM | Report abuse

" I like to see some polling on Senator Boxer, I suspect if things do not turn around in Ca. soon, the voters will take out their agnst on Ms. Boxer. Posted by: vbhoomes"

Sen Boxer gets to plead a real "Alibi" (Latin for elsewhere). While California will take its problems out on someone, histoprically that someone is the Governor, and the Arnold has no coat tails. The California political vendetta will be on a person by person basis.

IF

You did remember to put that word in there. IF the stock market IS a leading indicator, 2010 is not going to be much of a picnic for ANY Republican, because "I told you so!" run up against, "And we are bringing back the Clinton Prosperity" won't resonate.

The whole Republican Party is currently running on the hope that things don't actually get better.

When they do, the top ten will be all Republicans contemplating retirement, or the suckers the RNC finds to replace the ones who give up and retire early.

Posted by: ceflynline | July 24, 2009 4:26 PM | Report abuse

By all means BSIMON, if the economy picks up and things all going reasonably okay in the World, then by all means, the dems will take credit and will at least hold their own in 2010. But the odds are far more likely that unemployment will still be very high and the dems will pay a political price. But I don't have a cyrstal ball, if I did, I wouldn't be blogging today, I would be out selling my services.

==

But Obama has painstakingly made the case that employment would be the last to recover, and that the economic problems we're having are the result of Republican policies.

Republicans liars pardon my redundancy have tried to pin our problems on Obama and outside of the teabaggers nobody buys it.

Posted by: chrisfox8 | July 24, 2009 4:05 PM | Report abuse

"Harry Reid will be a tough race for Republicans in Nevada, but they will target him and will likely find a great candidate to do so."

What are your grounds for saying that? Recruitment there has been a gong show; the cupboard only gets barer the more people look at it.

Among Democratic seats, Dodd's the only really vulnerable one (if this status persists for the rest of the year, I expect there to be some kind of reckoning within the Connecticut Democratic Party); Bennet arguably should be, but he isn't for whatever reason. I think you overestimate Republican chances in Illinois.

Posted by: SeanC1 | July 24, 2009 4:04 PM | Report abuse

"But I don't have a crystal ball, if I did, I wouldn't be blogging today, I would be out selling my services."

Posted by: vbhoomes | July 24, 2009 3:41 PM | Report abuse


Now don't tell me the check from the "program" wouldn't cash!

Posted by: scrivener50 | July 24, 2009 4:01 PM | Report abuse

"Democrats acknowledge that Fisher is not the most charismatic candidate in the world "

Considering that the two immediate predecessors total charisma quotient would have needed Divine help to get up to zero, that seems like a qualification.

With just a bit of Brylcreme and a mustache, Portman could do a great Tom Dewey. He will have to talk taxes and governance sometime, and then he will have all the charm of the frogs that don't quite make it all the way across Route 55 to the Cedar Bog.

Charisma and Ohio Senators only randomly co-locate.

Posted by: ceflynline | July 24, 2009 4:01 PM | Report abuse

DEM EDGE WILL SHARPEN WITH GAINS IN ECONOMY, HEALTH CARE


PREDICTIONS: Specter of PA won't run, will support Sestak, retire to write multi- milliondollar political bio with juicy revelations about JFK/Warren Commission, Anita Hill/Clarence Thomas, etc. He's likely to apply his skills and knowledge as an advocate for human and constitutional rights issues, such as those raised in the following article:

http://nowpublic.com/world/gestapo-usa-govt-funded-vigilante-network-terrorizes-america

Castle of DE is formidable, but would lose if an accelerated troop withdrawal allows Beau Biden to come home and run for the seat. Could happen.

Obama will emerge with a health care reform package substantive enough to allow him to regain any recent erosion. As economy shows signs of improvement, the Dems will sharpen their already formidable edge...

...that is, if Obama sticks to his principles and does NOT apologize for concluding that a trained law enforcement officer should have been able to defuse the Professor Gates contretemps without resorting to shackling and arrest.

(It also happens to white guys who are unjustly targeted, BTW:)

http://nowpublic.com/world/anti-stalking-journo-seeks-lawyer-fight-stalking-charge

Posted by: scrivener50 | July 24, 2009 3:51 PM | Report abuse

By all means BSIMON, if the economy picks up and things all going reasonably okay in the World, then by all means, the dems will take credit and will at least hold their own in 2010. But the odds are far more likely that unemployment will still be very high and the dems will pay a political price. But I don't have a cyrstal ball, if I did, I wouldn't be blogging today, I would be out selling my services.

Posted by: vbhoomes | July 24, 2009 3:41 PM | Report abuse

FarlingtonBlade writes
" El Rushbo's influence in the party is overstated. Who was the number one target in the Republican primaries? The eventual nominee. As soon as Palin was selected he was back on the bus. "

Devil's advocate says: Presidential primaries attract more attention than Senate /Gov / other primaries. McCain won the nomination largely by winning the open primaries in which eligible voters were not limited to registered Republicans.

Therefore, your example does not apply to primaries in a midterm year, which typically only attract party loyalists - whether Dem or Repub.

The mouth came back on board once McCain won the nomination because of the 'lesser of two evils' rule. What was he going to do - support Obama because he doesn't like McCain?

Posted by: bsimon1 | July 24, 2009 3:16 PM | Report abuse

Ten dollars says that KoZ has no idea what the Franking Commission is.

Posted by: DDAWD


hot dog inspectors

Posted by: king_of_zouk | July 24, 2009 3:14 PM | Report abuse

vbhoomes writes
"Nobody today knows what the political landscape will be in the fall of 2010, but its safe to say the democrats will be on less fertile soil because they control both ends of Pa. street and have nobody to blame if the things go wrong on the home front or overseas."


While I agree that nobody knows the political landscape in the fall of 2010, you go on to contradict yourself by predicting the Dems will need someone to blame. Doesn't your initial premise that things change keep the possibility open that Dems will be taking credit for successes by next year? Or are you suddenly sure that things will either be like they are today, or worse?

Posted by: bsimon1 | July 24, 2009 3:10 PM | Report abuse

You have NH way too high. Beating a right-winger in a primary will only confirm Ayotte's moderate bona fides, Hodes is dull, and the state's inherent anti-tax attitudes will be stoked by the health care debate.

CO also too high. Maybe Bennett should be in more trouble, but you can't beat something with nothing, and the R candidates in the mix just aren't ready and don't have fundraising potential.

I'd drop them both two notches.

Posted by: billmcg1 | July 24, 2009 3:05 PM | Report abuse

Mark Kirk may have a runaway race. He is going virtually unopposed by other republicans and the democrats have only mustered up two weak candidates in Kennedy and Alexi Ginoulias. He could really change the balance of power in the Senate if he takes the seat previously taken by Obama.

Posted by: vanosrapidamente | July 24, 2009 3:03 PM | Report abuse

@bradcpa - El Rushbo's influence in the party is overstated. Who was the number one target in the Republican primaries? The eventual nominee. As soon as Palin was selected he was back on the bus.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | July 24, 2009 2:58 PM | Report abuse

Nobody today knows what the political landscape will be in the fall of 2010, but its safe to say the democrats will be on less fertile soil because they control both ends of Pa. street and have nobody to blame if the things go wrong on the home front or overseas. I like to see some polling on Senator Boxer, I suspect if things do not turn around in Ca. soon, the voters will take out their agnst on Ms. Boxer.

Posted by: vbhoomes | July 24, 2009 2:52 PM | Report abuse

Ten dollars says that KoZ has no idea what the Franking Commission is.

Posted by: DDAWD | July 24, 2009 2:51 PM | Report abuse

NH getting Ayotte is a plus... but she is far from well-known to the electorate. She has never held elective office, and will have to let people know what she is about. The teabaggers don't seem to like her because some things she did as AG. She may be vulnerable to someone from the right wing. That would doom the GOP from holding the seat in decidedly purple NH.

Posted by: steveboyington | July 24, 2009 2:35 PM | Report abuse

I don't know about Mike Castle -- he'll be celebrating his 71st birthday before the next election, and it shows (recovering from strokes will take a lot out of you). He's got good service behind him, and for a Republican, I find him almost a Democrat. Which may not garner him much support from that famous Base.

I'm impressed by Vitter's fund raising. Clearly, the interests that own him want him to be reelected -- and will spare no expense.

Posted by: margaretmeyers | July 24, 2009 1:58 PM | Report abuse

Nissl:

I'm thinking about Alaska, 2008 and remembering that a D challenger beat a badly damaged R incumbent for the US Senate seat. Was that your point? Because it sounded like you're saying that Bunning will win in KY regardless of his woes and Conway's strengths.

Posted by: mnteng | July 24, 2009 1:56 PM | Report abuse

I am responding as things now stand. I do expect the economy to rebound and unemployment to drop by this time next year. If that happens as I expect it will we will be looking at a number of Republicans with egg on their faces.

Posted by: bradcpa | July 24, 2009 1:39 PM | Report abuse

Rep. John Carter (R-Texas), the secretary of the House Republican Conference and a former District Court Judge, is having his messages to constituents censored by Democrats on the Franking Commission. Republicans are no longer allowed to use the words “government run health care” in the communications to their constituents.


so there you have it. Libe are forced to censor speech to avoid being labeled for what they are. Are we CCCP yet?

Posted by: king_of_zouk | July 24, 2009 1:37 PM | Report abuse

OK on topic:

A few more Rasmussen numbers: 25% think the stimulus worked. 53% oppose the President's health care reform bill.

Poll numbers for Democrats running in 2009 and 2010 are also starting to crumble . Barbara Boxer is now up only 4% on Carly Fiorina. In Connecticut, friend of the bankrupt banks Chris Dodd, trails his GOP opponent Rob Simmons by 9%. In New Jersey, Governor Corzine, who has spent more money, and more of his own money, on state campaigns than any other candidate in American history. He is now 15% behind his GOP opponent. Of course, given the Torricelli model, perhaps Frank Lautenberg will replace Corzine on the ballot in October, and and then serve as both Governor and Senator.

The people of American understand that the Democrats run everything in Washington, since that profile in courage, Arlen Specter switched horses. By the way, Specter's numbers are also collapsing-he leads Republican Toomey by only 1% now..

Obama can blather, as he did in his news conference, about the GOP's obstruction, but the GOP has no power to block any Obama initiative at this point -- neither in the House, nor the Senate. So if the bills (health care, cap and trade in the Senate) are stalled, it is because there are enough Democrats in both bodies who understand the danger of following the Obama-Nancy Pelsosi-Henry Waxman ship crashing into the left bank of the river.

This would have been impossible to say a month ago,but Democrat-held Senate seats that are now in play next year include: Illinois, Connecticut, Delaware, Colorado, California, , Pennsylvania, Nevada and maybe New York and Arkansas. The GOP will have to work to hold open seats in Ohio, New Hampshire and Missouri, and if Jim Bunning runs again, Kentucky is almost certainly gone. Lousiana (Vitter) and North Carolina (Burr) are not locked up either. But the playing field has shifted dramatically in a few months. Of course, things can change from how they look now, but they could change in either direction.

Obama has likely not bottomed, Nor have the Democrats.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | July 24, 2009 1:36 PM | Report abuse

Tort reform would yield tens of billions in savings. Yet you cannot find it in the Democratic bills. And Obama breathed not a word about it in the full hour of his health-care news conference. Why? No mystery. The Democrats are parasitically dependent on huge donations from trial lawyers.

Didn't Obama promise a new politics that puts people over special interests? Sure. And now he promises expanded, portable, secure, higher-quality medical care -- at lower cost! The only thing he hasn't promised is to extirpate evil from the human heart. That legislation will be introduced next week.


Getting to be a running joke this charlatan.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | July 24, 2009 1:33 PM | Report abuse

Rush Limbaugh is the biggest problem to the Republicans picking up more than a couple seats in the 2010 cycle. The fact that he does not believe in moderates is going to hurt the Republican party. You have believe that Bo Biden will be running pictures of poor Mike Castle caving in to a town hall meeting full of refugees from the local psychiatric hospital on the country of Obama's birth. In their relentless pursuit of the RINO, the right wing will destroy any chance of taking back the Senate by the GOP. I expect this hatred for moderates to hurt their chances in New Hampshire, Colorado and Conneticut.

Posted by: bradcpa | July 24, 2009 1:32 PM | Report abuse

You put too much emphasis on fundraising too early for Senate races, if you want my opinion. Nor do I think crowded primaries matter as much as many seem to think - not in the current, still-polarized environment.

I still don't understand why KY is so far up the lines here and at 538. Bunning may be certifiably nuts and Conway may be a great candidate, but the state is deep deep red. Think Alaska, 2008.

Posted by: Nissl | July 24, 2009 1:32 PM | Report abuse

Health Care: From the president we now know that cops are stupid, doctors are greedy, Republicans don't play nice, people are dying and we're all going broke if we don't embrace socialized medicine in a week or so.

Sure, we heard a lot of wonkish rhetoric — this president seems to think all he has to do is talk, and everyone will bend to his will — but there were few specifics.

And a few specifics would be nice before we place our health care system — 17% of the economy — under government control.

We didn't even hear the president explain how he could demand immediate action on bills that he himself hasn't read. (But then, to be fair, the somnambulant journalists in attendance didn't bother to ask.)

This became obvious Monday, when he was asked about a point we brought up in an editorial last week on whether the House bill in effect outlaws new private individual health care insurance the year it becomes law.

"You know," Obama told a group of hand-selected, sympathetic bloggers, "I have to say that I am not familiar with the provision you are talking about."

How dimwitted can a President be? Are you longing for the genius that was George Bush yet?

Posted by: king_of_zouk | July 24, 2009 1:29 PM | Report abuse

Why do Libs resent the truth so much?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Hope this one post about Republicans NOT on the comeback trail is the real deal and not a token.

Finally.

Posted by: chrisuxcox


Oh wait, I know. Because it is contrary to their entire being.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | July 24, 2009 1:27 PM | Report abuse

I disagree vaguely with your line, CC. I would have things in a bit of a reverse order.

1. Connecticut
2. Missouri
3. Kentucy
4. Colorodo
5. New Hampshire
6. Arkansas
7. Ohio
8. Illinois
9. Nevada
10. Delaware

Delware depends on if Castle runs or not. If he runs, Delaware jumps on my line to 4. If he doesn't, Delaware goes off the line. Harry Reid will be a tough race for Republicans in Nevada, but they will target him and will likely find a great candidate to do so. You also left Arkansas off the line, but Republicans are on offense there. I predit Ayotte will get through the Republican primary and will be the next US Senator from New Hampshire. I think Bunning will drop out and Grayson will run & by next June, Kentucky will likely be off the line completely. Missouri will be close until the very end. It will likely be a race decided by 1-2 % points.

Posted by: reason5 | July 24, 2009 12:41 PM | Report abuse

Ack, I meant Fisher not Portman.

Posted by: mnteng | July 24, 2009 12:16 PM | Report abuse

Castle will probably help himself by not holding any more townhalls where he has to answer to the lunatic fringe.

Interesting to see NV yo-yoing on and off The Line even though Reid doesn't seem to have a challenger yet.

And I just don't see PA being as likely to change parties (now that Specter is a D) as any of the states below it on the Line. Kirk, Castle, Melancon, and Portman have much better chances of winning than Toomey.

Posted by: mnteng | July 24, 2009 12:14 PM | Report abuse

Wow, the next page of the day is also the first page of the day.

Freaky...

Posted by: DDAWD | July 24, 2009 11:36 AM | Report abuse

Hope this one post about Republicans NOT on the comeback trail is the real deal and not a token.

Finally.

Posted by: chrisfox8 | July 24, 2009 11:36 AM | Report abuse

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