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Friday Senate Line: The Importance of 60



Sens. Roland Burris (Ill.), David Vitter (La.), Arlen Specter (Pa.) and Jim Bunning (Ky.) are among the most vulnerable incumbents in 2010.

The recently concluded Senate battle over President Obama's economic stimulus package reveals that although Democrats enjoy a relatively wide margin in the chamber they have scant room for defections if they want to pass legislation.

Without Sen. Ted Kennedy (Mass.) voting on final passage due to his ongoing fight against brain cancer and the fate of the Minnesota Senate race still in doubt, Democrats had only 57 votes on their side for the legislation. That meant that they absolutely had to win over three Republicans in order to get the 60 votes required to avoid a GOP filibuster.

Friday Line

Democrats got it -- barely -- thanks to Republican Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Olympia Snowe (Maine) and Arlen Specter (R-Pa.).

But, when it comes to other major Obama legislative initiatives, there's no guarantee that all 58 Democrats (or 59 if entertainer Al Franken winds up being seated in the Minnesota race) stick together or that the same trio of GOPers can be relied on to cross party lines. (Witness the struggle for 60 votes on the omnibus spending bill.)

All of that brings us to the importance of 2010 when the map -- for the third straight cycle -- favors Democrats and where the party must look to build a 60+ seat majority that would allow them true control over the Senate.

Privately, Democratic strategists acknowledge that they need to go big in 2010 in order to keep a working cushion (63? 64? 65?) for the 2012 and 2014 cycles when the map is far less favorable.

How high they can go depends in relatively equal parts on open seats, recruitment and the political environment.

On the first, five Republicans have already announced their retirement and Democrats are likely to be very competitive in every state but Kansas. (Gov. Kathleen Sebelius's ascension to Health and Human Secretary designate makes Kansas a real longshot for Democrats.)

On the second, Democrats have had successes and failures. Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is a top tier recruit and Rep. Paul Hodes (N.H.) gets solid reviews. But, on the negative side, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee wasn't able to convince state CFO Alex Sink into the Florida open seat race.

The final factor -- the political environment -- is the most important and the hardest to predict at this point. Right now everything is roses for Democrats thanks in large part to Obama's popularity but much can change between now and next November.

As always, the number one ranked race is the most likely to switch parties. Agree or disagree? The comments section awaits.

To the Line!

10. Colorado (D): The appointment of Sen. Michael Bennet shocked the political world because he was a political unknown outside of Denver with no record in elected office. While Bennet is certain to enjoy the perks of incumbency -- most notably fundraising -- he still has to spend the next two years building name identification statewide. That makes him potentially vulnerable to either a serious primary or general election challenge. Former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff's name keeps coming up as a potential primary challenge, a race that likely would be competitive. Republicans insist they will make a run at Bennet but the names mentioned -- former Reps. Bob Beauprez and Scott McInnis -- have the look of re-treads. Those in the know say to keep an eye on state Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry, a rising star in the party who may well run for some statewide office in 2010. (Previous ranking: N/A)

9. Illinois (D): Appointed Sen. Roland Burris's string of problems relating to what he did or, more importantly, didn't reveal about his dealing with disgraced former Gov. Rod Blagojevich probably make it impossible for him to run for a full term next year. And, that's good news for Democrats who would be favored in this strongly Democratic state if anyone other than Burris was their nominee. A fight appears to be brewing between former Commerce Secretary Bill Daley and state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias in the Democratic primary and, if both men run, it could get nasty. Even so, there's been no movement from Rep. Mark Kirk (R) in regards the race and without him Republicans have no obvious nominee. (Previous ranking: 6)

8. Nevada (D): Former Rep. Jon Porter's decision to take a job in Washington rather than pursue a race against Senate Majority Harry Reid (Nev.) takes one major GOP challenger off the table. Rep. Dean Heller (R) is still considering the race but party strategists don't expect a decision anytime soon. Whether or not they get Heller, Republicans will find someone credible to take on Reid who is reviled among the GOP base. And, remember, that Bruce Lunsford, who had lost two PRIMARY races in Kentucky almost beat Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) in 2008. (Previous ranking: 9)

7. Louisiana (R): Ranking where Sen. David Vitter (R) should sit on the Line is a tough task. On the one hand, the family values conservative was forced to acknowledge moral wrongdoing when his name came up on the D.C. Madam's list of clients. On the other, Louisiana is becoming increasingly friendly to Republicans and Democrats don't have a candidate in the race yet. New polling by Research 2000 for the liberal Daily Kos blog suggests Vitter is far from out of the woods and the possibility of former Focus on the Family head honcho Tony Perkins running in the Republican primary further complicates the incumbent's calculus. (Previous ranking: 7)

6. Pennsylvania (R): Former Rep. Pat Toomey's decision to challenge Sen. Arlen Specter in next year's Republican primary in the Keystone State drastically reshapes the outlook for the race. Toomey came within two points of defeating the five-term incumbent in a primary battle in 2004 and a recent independent poll suggests that there is considerable dissatisfaction with Specter among the ranks of the base of the party. Toomey's emergence as a candidate likely means that Democrats won't be able to depend on Specter to vote with them much in the future -- a major development for Obama's agenda over the next two years. (Previous ranking: 8)

5. Florida (R): The open seat race to replace Sen. Mel Martinez (R) is on hold until Gov. Charlie Crist (R) decides whether or not he wants to run. While we continue to believe a Crist candidacy is less than a 50-50 bet, the declining state of the economy in Florida might well make the Senate a far more attractive option for the ambitious gov. While everyone is waiting to see what Crist will do, former state House Speaker Marco Rubio has quietly been laying the financial groundwork to run if Crist doesn't. For Democrats, a primary is shaping up between state Sen. Dan Gelber and Rep. Kendrick Meek. (Previous ranking: 3)

4. Ohio (R): One secret to Senate Democrats' successes in the 2006 and 2008 cycle was the fact that they successfully cleared the primary field for their strongest candidate. It allowed the nominee to focus all of his/her time on fundraising and positioning for the general election among other advantages. But, in Ohio's open seat race, Senate Democrats have not been able to keep the field small -- watching as Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (as well as several other lesser known candidates) jumped into the race. Does that mean Democrats can't win here? Absolutely not. But a contested primary does make it more difficult. Republicans, on the other hand, have cleared their field for former Rep. Rob Portman although the Fix is reserving judgment on just how great a candidate he will be, particularly with his extensive ties to the Bush administration. (Previous ranking: 5)

3. Missouri (R): Landing Carnahan, widely regarded as the most talented member of her political family, as a candidate was a major win for Democrats. Republicans, meanwhile, are still waiting to see whether former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman will challenge Rep. Roy Blunt in the GOP primary next year. Even if Blunt gets the nomination to himself, he will have a daunting task before him -- defending years of House Republican rule (in which time he served in leadership) that is decidedly not popular with the American public. One thing to remember about Missouri, however, that keeps Republicans in the game: Even while President Obama was sweeping the country with 365 electoral votes, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) managed to eke out a win in the Show Me State. (Previous ranking: 2)

2. Kentucky (R): The war of words between Sen. Jim Bunning (R) and Sens. Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and John Cornyn (Texas) is something close to a disaster for Senate GOP strategists. Bunning, a renowned curmudgeon, is now openly hostile to the two leaders in his party and seems ready to run for reelection in 2010 simply to spite McConnell and Cornyn. And, don't forget that Bunning had a meager $150,000 in the bank at the end of 2008, an absolute pittance for an incumbent senator in this election cycle. The likely beneficiary is Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, who came within a few points of ousting Bunning six years ago, and is running again. But, given the softness of Bunning's numbers, it's not hard to see other ambitious Democrats jumping into this race too. (Previous ranking: 4)

1. New Hampshire (R): The Granite State has been the epicenter of Republicans' decline in the Northeast over the las few elections. In 2006, both GOP House members were defeated and in 2008 Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) beat incumbent John Sununu (R). That trend spells trouble for Republicans' chances in the open seat being left behind by Sen. Judd Gregg (R) in 2010. Rep. Paul Hodes is already in the race on the Democratic side and wins strong reviews from national Democrats although Rep. Carol Shea-Porter continues to leave open the possibility of a primary challenge. Republicans don't have an obvious candidate -- especially considering that Sununu does not seem interested in moving back to New Hampshire to run. Once Sununu formally removes his name, look for attention to turn to former Gov. Steve Merrill as the GOP's best candidate. (Previous ranking: 1)

By Chris Cillizza  |  March 6, 2009; 1:12 PM ET
Categories:  The Line  
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Comments

A note on the possible Colorado primary battle. As a resident here I got a phone survey that pretty much asked me if Romanoff should run against Bennet. It went through a series of talking points for and agaist each candidate and asked if a primary would damage the eventual winner, etc.

So, someone out there is interested in Romanoff taking the plunge.

Posted by: 2djerrid | March 9, 2009 2:58 PM | Report abuse

"drivl. Shouldn't you be sweeping peanut shells off the floor right about now.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | March 7, 2009 8:31 PM"
_______
He will as soon as you, King, move out of your parents' basement. The benefits of the stimulus package will not reach you as long as you are sleeping next to your Mom's 35 year old Maytag washer. And, no, King, taking crushed aluminum cans to the supermarket is not a small business.


Posted by: broadwayjoe | March 9, 2009 2:01 PM | Report abuse

I cannot buy into anything scrivener50 has posted over the last two years.

But he is correct that Wright got a raw deal. In reality, Wright is a decorated military man and an iconic figure in mainstream religious circles despite what the MSM would have you believe. Hopefully at some point, Wright will launch a "Make It Wright" tour, Part II, to set the record straight on who he is. The fairest media account of the Wright issue was the Post's Eugene Robinson's "Where Wright Went Wrong."

Posted by: broadwayjoe | March 9, 2009 1:55 PM | Report abuse

In response to OhioCitizen:

I am supporting Jennifer Brunner for Senate in Ohio because of what she accomplished in the 2008 election. Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) had a totally unremarkable, noncontroversial election for the first time in anyone's memory. She faced down the Republican blowhards on the board of elections, kicking them off the board and replacing them with Republicans who would actually work with other people. I think she would make an exciting senator. On the other hand, while I believe Lee Fisher is an honorable person, he's just another go-along-to-get-along politician. Speaking as a 56-year-old white male, I'm tired of old white guys running everything. Jennifer Brunner for US Senate!

Posted by: jothomp | March 9, 2009 1:28 PM | Report abuse

...""BLEW IT BUSH/REPUBLCIANS RECORD CRIMINAL/FACT!

..."YOU'D...."BE IN JAIL! I'm disgusted with what the REPUBLICANS HAVE DONE TO MY COUNTRY! Why hasn't "A CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION being done by a Independent Council too look into the Criminal record of Republicans who's record shows they have RUINED America's image and Economy, "LOOTED THE U.S. TREASURY" and are laughing all the way to the bank,

....."FREE AS A BIRD!

..."APPRECIATE IT, now I see why American's don't vote, sometimes I wonder why I do...

..."Here's one more fact,

..."True Patriotism, "Hates Injustice In Its Own Land, "MORE, "THAN ANYWHERE ELSE."
---Clarence Darrow

Sincerely, Tommy Birchfield, Voter/Vet USAF
Graduate Student, Master's Program,
East Tennessee State University,
Class....2009!

Posted by: ztcb41 | March 9, 2009 1:13 PM | Report abuse

I’m surprised to see no mention of Charles Grassley in the top ten. He has yet to announce his candidacy in a state turning bluer with each cycle and a popular Democratic Governor running for reelection. Democrats should be contesting this race to establish a push into the Midwest Republican stronghold.

Posted by: dutterback2000 | March 9, 2009 11:09 AM | Report abuse

BB
You don't even have to leave the Dem Party to find bipartisanship HeHe

Maybe if we had a totalatarian regime - we could waive all of this time wasting hooey!! No wonder that the Chinese are ahead of the curve.

Posted by: newbeeboy | March 9, 2009 10:29 AM | Report abuse

OBAMA SHOULD NOW REALIZE THAT REV. WRIGHT WAS RIGHT.

President Obama does not yet seem to be cognizant of a frightening reality -- that the Bush "torture memos" were used to justify "programs of personal destruction" that REMAIN IN PLACE ON HIS WATCH.

Obama must come to realize that federal agencies and commands have enabled the ONGOING covert microwave weapons torture of U.S. citizens deemed "undesirables" and "dissents"...

...as well as the nationwide GPS-enabled "community gang stalking" of U.S. citizens, who are hunted down like prey by citizen vigilante goons as "target" vehicles and implanted GPS devices enter the "crown of evil" GPS grid of the gang-stalkers.

It appears that Obama and most liberal/progressives have yet to realize that the "war on terror" appears to have been a calculated pretext for an "American genocide/politicide" -- a horrific silent holocaust that has destroyed, and continues to destroy, untold thousands, if not millions, of American families and no doubt has contributed to economic tumult.

One person who WAS aware, and deserves vindication, is the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. What has been happened since the dawning of the Bush administration has turned a just society into the "US of KKK-A," as harsh and impolitic as that sounds.

And the 21st century version of the Klan -- an American Gestapo -- remains on its covert march -- hiding behind covert federal "programs of personal financial destruction" and federally-funded community policing and town watch programs co-sponsored by local law enforcement nationwide.

President Obama must act immediately to restore American civil and human rights -- because each day he delays, the forces running these programs, the forces who will resist whatever "change" his presidency offers, are one day closer to making it impossible him to fulfill the "hope" he still embodies.

For more on "Gestapo USA" and why team Obama must move immediately to dismantle the Bush-Cheney "extrajudicial punishment network"...

http://My.NowPublic.com/scrivener

PS. -- Anyone reading this with "access" to decision-makers on Team Obama and in Congress: Please send them this missive.

Posted by: scrivener50 | March 8, 2009 11:23 PM | Report abuse

How long can Coleman keep up this farce in Minnesota? It is now FOUR months past the election and the Republican Governor and the Republican controlled court system keeps the Democrats from having that 59th vote, a real help when you consider that Kennedy can not always be there.

Posted by: Opa2 | March 8, 2009 7:26 PM | Report abuse

I was a Republican because I believed that it's better to seek a job than to claim a government paycheck as your right due to idleness. I still firmly believe all that.

However, the rich can make life so hard for the poor by their misbehavior that I have been compelled to side with the Democratic party, with which I also disagree on the issue of abortion - an issue central to my world view and my politics.

I pray for President Obama every day, and nothing he has done to date has disillusioned me with him one iota.

Posted by: Miss_Hogynist | March 7, 2009 10:33 PM | Report abuse

"Without Sen. Ted Kennedy (Mass.) voting on final passage due to his ongoing fight against brain cancer and the fate of the Minnesota Senate race still in doubt"

That's sad. I'm still registered Republican, though I guess I should get that fixed. I agree with Michael Steele every now and then, but otherwise, thanks but no thanks.

Posted by: Miss_Hogynist | March 7, 2009 10:24 PM | Report abuse

drivl. Shouldn't you be sweeping peanut shells off the floor right about now.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | March 7, 2009 8:31 PM | Report abuse

"

occam2 - If you are going to make cracks about education, perhaps you should edit your posts for grammar. "ONLY state have Senators." I'll leave it to you to figure it out.

That much having been said, I'd like to have a little of what Broadway Joe has been smoking. The current bill would give DC a voting representative, though activists are pushing for 2 senate seats. Not likely.

BB
"

I love it when when people attack minor insignificant typos in blog posts instead of the premise of the argument. For the uneducated, this is using the logical fallacy of ignoratio elenchi (red herring), or perhaps in this case, more specifically, argumentum ad hominem.

Posted by: occam2 | March 7, 2009 7:10 PM | Report abuse

"It all depends on who gets the blame for the worsening Depression, in the public mind. If things keep to trend (0.5% increase/month), unemployment will be 13% by the end of 2009 and 18% by the Nov 2010 elections. If the Dems are successful in keeping the blame on Bush, they win. If they somehow manage to get themselves blamed, they lose. Posted by: andrewp111"

Wrong calculus, I hope. By mid 2010 the effects of putting three to four millions of people to work will be there to see. If you got a job due to the stimulus plan(s), and your Senator is a Republican who is still trying to keep any of this from happening, (thereby cutting the funds your job depends on) and putting you back on unemployment, he isn't going to be your concept of a viable candidate. And if a years worth of such jobs putting money into local circulation doesn't marginally slow the rate of collapse, Republican Senators saying "I told you so" won't earn themselves any credit from the segment of the population that has been jobless for a year or more, nor from the newly jobless who will see that, "I Told You So" as being dead set against their ever getting work.

But since a normal business cycle would be expected to produce some swing back to increasing employment, those four million jobs will certainly have a positive effect, nd at that point every non Republican candidate for anything will be running against his Republican opponent for "Wanting America to Fail", and, fairly or unfairly, (remember the Republicans ran against anti war Democrats for "Wanting America to Fail") that line will stick in most cases.

Having to run on the Rush Limbaugh Platform will be a handicap most Republicans won't be able to overcome.

Ifthe American Reform party gets organized and competes, the best any of those Senators will do is 25% of the vote, and the real question will be how many Senators the ARP elects.

Now the question is how many aspiring Senators can get an ARP candidacy up and running in a year and a half.

Posted by: ceflynline | March 7, 2009 6:55 PM | Report abuse

It all depends on who gets the blame for the worsening Depression, in the public mind. If things keep to trend (0.5% increase/month), unemployment will be 13% by the end of 2009 and 18% by the Nov 2010 elections. If the Dems are successful in keeping the blame on Bush, they win. If they somehow manage to get themselves blamed, they lose.

Posted by: andrewp111 | March 7, 2009 5:22 PM | Report abuse

SUSPECT BIG BROTHER INTERNET / TELECOM SPYING OR MALICIOUS INTERFERENCE?


Do something -- tell your story to the American Civil Liberties Union (link below).

Then demand that ACLU renew its free speech fight by filing a class-action suit against unconstitutional, rogue government surveillance operations.

http://blog.aclu.org/2009/01/26/internet-filters-voluntary-ok-not-government-mandate/#comments

Posted by: scrivener50 | March 7, 2009 5:01 PM | Report abuse

newbeeboy - You must truly be a newbie. Haven't you ever heard the famous Will Rogers quote? "I'm not a member of an organized political party. I'm a Democrat."

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | March 7, 2009 4:34 PM | Report abuse

occam2 - If you are going to make cracks about education, perhaps you should edit your posts for grammar. "ONLY state have Senators." I'll leave it to you to figure it out.

That much having been said, I'd like to have a little of what Broadway Joe has been smoking. The current bill would give DC a voting representative, though activists are pushing for 2 senate seats. Not likely.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | March 7, 2009 4:28 PM | Report abuse

Hold on Cillizza...what self-respecting Democratic Senator could in good conscience vote against this masterful chief officer and his band of rocket surgeons???????

This seems like a moot point, defections - maybe from east to west Berlin - but not in the great Democratic consensus party!!

Posted by: newbeeboy | March 7, 2009 4:14 PM | Report abuse

haha -- loony rightwingers lose -- and keep on losing.


'WASHINGTON (AP) — A federal judge on Thursday threw out a lawsuit questioning President Barack Obama's citizenship, lambasting the case as a waste of the court's time and suggesting the plaintiff's attorney may have to compensate the president's lawyer.
In an argument popular on the Internet and taken seriously practically nowhere else, Obama's critics argue he is ineligible to be president because he is not a "natural-born citizen" as the Constitution requires.
In response last summer, Obama's campaign posted his Hawaiian birth certificate on its Web site. But the lawsuit argues it is a fake and that Obama was actually born in his father's homeland of Kenya, even though Hawaiian officials have said the document is authentic.
"This case, if it were allowed to proceed, would deserve mention in one of those books that seek to prove that the law is foolish or that America has too many lawyers with not enough to do," U.S. District Judge James Robertson said in his written opinion.
The lawsuit didn't even use Obama's legal name but called him "Barry Soetoro," the name he went by while attending elementary school in Indonesia. It's one of many that has been filed claiming Obama is ineligible to serve as president.
Robertson ordered plaintiff's attorney John Hemenway of Colorado Springs, Colo., to show why he hasn't violated court rules barring frivolous and harassing cases and shouldn't have to pay Obama's attorney, Bob Bauer, for his time arguing that the case should be thrown out.'

Posted by: drindl | March 7, 2009 2:01 PM | Report abuse

King, your mom said she's coming down to the basement in five minutes to bring you a grilled cheese sandwich and lemonade. She said to pick up your dirty clothes and make your bed, too. She said until you leave her basement, you will not benefit from the BHO stimulus plan. And she said for you to stop referring to your comic books as "liquid assets." Comic books are comic books.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | March 7, 2009 1:32 PM | Report abuse

"One way or another (Franken, Shaheen, a new DC senator, etc.), it looks like 60 votes is in the Senate's future. "

Another Democrat educated dimwit. There will be NO Senator from DC. ONLY state have Senators.

---------------------------------------
[O]ne [B]ig [A]ss [M]istake [A]merica

Posted by: occam2 | March 7, 2009 12:33 PM | Report abuse

You gotta admire the audacity of liberals, the self appointed ideology of whats best for the people, advocating one party rule. It's obvious that liberal demagoguery has no limits when it comes to the depths of hypocrisy they will descend to.

Question: How do you know when liberal is lying? Answer: It's easy, they are always lying. It's how they manage their army of slow witted government dependent voters.

----------------------------------
[O]ne [B]ig [A]ss [M]istake [A]merica


Posted by: occam2 | March 7, 2009 12:15 PM | Report abuse

president chauncy is so busy making empty hypocritical speeches, he hasn't noticed the market is through the floor and nancy is running the show. It doesn't add up to 60 when even dems won't go along with barry.harry.nan communism kicks in.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | March 7, 2009 11:18 AM | Report abuse

What if, what if. Should Specter actually decide he still has the strength to run, what if he decides to run on the American Reform ticket?

There have to be a few moderates who decide that now is the time to join a third party effort to oust the Republicans from their second party status. Arlan could lead that pack.

But what ifs are what ifs.

Posted by: ceflynline | March 7, 2009 11:02 AM | Report abuse

Losers:
Gullible American voters
American economy
Transparency
Bipartisanship
Integrity
American soldier

Winners
Acorn
Unions
Pigs
Short sellers
Communists
Iran and Russia

Posted by: king_of_zouk | March 7, 2009 10:45 AM | Report abuse

One way or another (Franken, Shaheen, a new DC senator, etc.), it looks like 60 votes is in the Senate's future.

Winners

BHO (per usual--staying on message and continuing to calmly deliver on his campaign promises one by one, e.g., no torture, Iraq pullout, closing Gitmo, economic stimulus, and so forth)

BHO counsel Bob Bauer (for winning the latest nutty BHO-isn't-a-citizen case and persuading the trial judge to consider requiring the plaintiffs to pay BHO attorney's fees (pretty hefty, I suspect))

Vietnam veteran John J. Rambo (for countless imaginary battles on Hollywood backlots)

Senator Roland Burris (for defying the punidits all of whom predicted he would resign by sundown)

Madoff the Great and the Missus (still is not in jail and still hasn't given up one cent of his $50 billion in ill gotten gains)

Rachel Maddow

Losers

Limbaugh (for making fun of Senator Kennedy's serious illness -- how low can you get?)

GOP (for allowing a bigoted radio entertainer to become their voice in our two party system)

The Fairness Doctrine (What happened to it? This should have been introduced the first thing as bill number S.1. No one should be allowed to spew idiotic venom ("I hope Obama fails"/"Send em back to Mexico"/"BHO is a commie") for three or four hours daily on a licensed station without being challenged)

Veteran BHO hater Juan Williams (for, well, being Juan Williams)

MSNBC's Morning Joe (a silly vapid presentation totally out of sync intellectually and in viewpoint with the evening lineup of Matthews, Olbermann, and Maddow; it belongs on Faux News or PAX TV; Super-patriot Bill Press would be a great morning replacement)

Reaganomics

Posted by: broadwayjoe | March 7, 2009 9:44 AM | Report abuse

Brunner's campaign is likely to be funded entirely by the single-interest Emily's List group. Ohio Democrats will choose traditional liberal Lee Fisher ahead of anti-Obama Emily's List candidate Brunner.

Posted by: OHIOCITIZEN | March 7, 2009 4:41 AM | Report abuse

Ohio progressive Democrats will never forget or forgive the cowards from Emily's List for opposing Obama in the Ohio Presidential Primary.

Posted by: OHIOCITIZEN | March 7, 2009 4:38 AM | Report abuse

Nominating Brunner basically ensures defeat. Ohio Democrats are smart enough to defeat the anti-Obama Emily's List stalking horse and nominate Fisher.

Posted by: OHIOCITIZEN | March 7, 2009 4:36 AM | Report abuse

The Ohio Democratic Primary will be won by
fisher. The anti-Obama losers from Emily's List are funding the Brunner campaign, while most Progressive Democrats and Strickland moderates are lined up in support of Fisher. Fisher will be the next Ohio Senator.

Posted by: OHIOCITIZEN | March 7, 2009 4:34 AM | Report abuse

The master mind of the Democrats takeover in 2006 and increase in 2008 is Breakfast, Lunch, and Dinner Schumer.

He was first elected by his "BRAIN" Hank Morris in 1998, and for the last 20 years plus has been having Breakfast. Lunch and Dinner with every "RICH" person or Now POOR WALL STREET he could find.

From George Soro to Bernie Madof and all those in between.

It is time to say NO MORE SCHUMER

http://www.NoMoreSchumer.com
vjm@nomoreschumer.com

Posted by: VJMachiavelli1 | March 7, 2009 2:40 AM | Report abuse

It doesn't cease to amaze me how people expect instant recovery with the economy, especially since the repubs forced the administration to sign a bill that had less than it wanted in the way of stimulative spending.

The Recovery Act was signed just a couple of weeks ago and already people are saying that since things haven't magically turned on a dime, Obama's efforts were a failure that will spell doom for the Dems in 2010. What we are suffering from now is the culmination of nearly 30 years of tax cuts for the wealthy and overall deregulation. You can't reverse 30 years of bad policy in 2 weeks (or even 6, which is all Obama has been president).

Stop acting like children sitting in the back seat asking if we are there yet 5 minutes after pulling out of the driveway.

That said, the Dems are in a good position to control 65 Senate seats come January 2011. The repubs will be pushed further into geographical obscurity and will likely react in the same way they reacted to their losses in the last two election cycles: we need to be more conservative.

Oh, and don't write off AZ. McCain's recent theatrics are proof that he is feeling the heat (no pun intended) and realizes just how vulnerable he is.

Posted by: PeixeGato1 | March 7, 2009 12:06 AM | Report abuse

I'm just thinking how amusing it will be when Franken is sworn in to the Senate and the big fat idiot is left standing there, leading his, er, "rump movement" (in the parliamentary sense, of course) from the outside.

Rush won't mind, but I wonder how the rest of the rump will feel?

Posted by: nodebris | March 6, 2009 11:30 PM | Report abuse

Today we celebrate the official Obama bear market - down 20% since the beginning of his presidency. These are the salad days for Obama and the Dems. The rancid, wilting salad days are just ahead. By the heat of the summer, Dem. programs will seem like potato salad left out too long in the mid-day sun. I predict that Obama won't be at 60% approval when Nov. 2010 rolls around.

Posted by: kenpasadena | March 6, 2009 9:10 PM | Report abuse

If Toomey beats Specter in the primary, it really doesn't matter who the dems run, they will win that seat. Santorum lost by a landslide to Casey and Toomey is cut out of his mold. Though if Toomey does beat Specter in the primary, I could see Specter pulling a Lieberman and running as an independent. Personally, I think the Dems will have 64 seats next cycle for sure getting PA, NH, MO, KY, and OH (I don't think the dems will lose any seats again in this cycle), with the potential to get up to 67. Tampa mayor Pam Iorio is the Democrats Dark Horse in Florida if Crist decides NOT to run (and I don't think he will - he just doesn't seem to like beltway game). Iorio is from the swing 1-4 cooridor area - and the seat really becomes two city/district candidates without Crist. The only way the dems can get LA is if Mitch Landrieu runs. I think he'd beat Vitter head to head

Posted by: robbygtx | March 6, 2009 7:16 PM | Report abuse

Observed - Because we can't wait two years. And moderate Republicans (the few, the proud) do have something constructive to add.

Broadway Joe - You weren't paying attention. The DC bill covers a vote in the House, not the Senate. I suspect the Supremes will knock it out anyway.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | March 6, 2009 6:41 PM | Report abuse

The economic programs Obama is promoting will not produce a robust economic recovery. By 2010 if this dire economic condition is not ameliorated, the Democrats could lose more than a few seats. This is a real possibility since the party in power generally loses seats in the mid-term elections. And, with the way Obama is running the economy, my prediction could be right on.

Posted by: saelij | March 6, 2009 6:20 PM | Report abuse

Unless Obama and his team take a deep breath and come down to the earth and set their priorities starting with bank credit, home mortgage, tax codes and after succeedding think about their liberal programs of healthcare and many others. Otherwise, rather than recovery, America will be drowned under the deep sea and will never come out from that mess.

Posted by: citysoilverizonnet | March 6, 2009 6:17 PM | Report abuse

HuffPo reports another BHO citizenship lawsuit has been thrown out. Judge considers making plaintiff pay for BHO's attorney's fees for filing the frivolous suit. 'Bout time...

Excerpt:

"WASHINGTON — A federal judge on Thursday threw out a lawsuit questioning President Barack Obama's citizenship, lambasting the case as a waste of the court's time and suggesting the plaintiff's attorney may have to compensate the president's lawyer.

In an argument popular on the Internet and taken seriously practically nowhere else, Obama's critics argue he is ineligible to be president because he is not a "natural-born citizen" as the Constitution requires.

In response last summer, Obama's campaign posted his Hawaiian birth certificate on its Web site. But the lawsuit argues it is a fake and that Obama was actually born in his father's homeland of Kenya, even though Hawaiian officials have said the document is authentic.

"This case, if it were allowed to proceed, would deserve mention in one of those books that seek to prove that the law is foolish or that America has too many lawyers with not enough to do," U.S. District Judge James Robertson said in his written opinion.

The lawsuit didn't even use Obama's legal name but called him "Barry Soetoro," the name he went by while attending elementary school in Indonesia. It's one of many that has been filed claiming Obama is ineligible to serve as president.

Robertson ordered plaintiff's attorney John Hemenway of Colorado Springs, Colo., to show why he hasn't violated court rules barring frivolous and harassing cases and shouldn't have to pay Obama's attorney, Bob Bauer, for his time arguing that the case should be thrown out."

Posted by: broadwayjoe | March 6, 2009 5:31 PM | Report abuse

Assuming that Obama makes no major missteps, the pressure will be on for more Democrats to be elected to the Senate.

Absent this, a good filibuster by the Republicans can keep the public focused on the real reasons for voting more Democrats to the Senate. Up to this point, polls indicate that Republicans must enjoy shooting themselves.

Posted by: EarlC | March 6, 2009 5:22 PM | Report abuse

If the DC voting rights bill is passed by Congress this year, that should help get the Dems to 60.

Posted by: broadwayjoe | March 6, 2009 5:10 PM | Report abuse

Why don't the idiot Democrats put things up for vote with a simple majority? If these are good things for the country then let the Republicans filibuster to their hearts content. Put the spotlight on these cockroaches who are obstructing as much as possible. We'll keep sorting them out in 2010.

Posted by: theobserver4 | March 6, 2009 4:49 PM | Report abuse

Chris, I think the contested races you site are on the map as you say, but don't you think it is the Democrats that will be considered the "incumbent party in power" ('cause they are) so, it will be they who are on defense next cycle. Republicans are not in the position of defending national policies - it will for certain be the other way around and highly dependent of the economy and then the local politics? The blame Bush era will be over by 2010. If the economy still stinks it will be like 1994. While I understand your focus on the Senate - what about the House?

Posted by: star_key2 | March 6, 2009 4:29 PM | Report abuse

I clearly see the Democrats making it to 60 but not to 67. I see clearly seven races where the Republicans are vulnerable. My line is:\

1. New Hampshire - This will go democratic especially with the retiring Judd Grey. He sees the blues surrounding him.
2. Ohio – Another blue state with a retiring Republican.
3. Florida - Another state the Obama took in the election that will go to a Democrat.
4. Missouri - McCain won this by the skin of his teeth can could easily be a decorates pickup.
5. Iowa - Grassley could join the many unemployed in his home state.
6. Louisiana – Vitter’s pay for sex could be a problem in the bible belt where he has to get the votes to overcome Democratic New Orleans.

I really think Colorado is secure. It would have been great if Salazar had stayed put, but I will be sending money and working for a week during the race to keep Colorado blue.

Posted by: bradcpa | March 6, 2009 4:21 PM | Report abuse

What if Specter pulls a Lieberman and runs as an independent? He has crossed the aisle enough that he could do it if he wanted.

Posted by: AndyR3 | March 6, 2009 4:03 PM | Report abuse


2010 election

1.Vitter= Gone-Democratic win
2. Burris= Gone- different Democratic win
3. Bunning= Gone-Democratic win
4. Specter= Wins reelection-Republican win

Posted by: mattadamsdietmanager1014 | March 6, 2009 3:16 PM | Report abuse

For the record, Missouri BARELY went for McCain--it was the rural folks who went for Mac and his trophy veep--the major metros are Obama/Biden Country. That said:

Secretary Carnahan is part of an extremely popular political family here, while the tarnished Rep. Blunt is not (his son left office after one failed term as governor with his tail between his legs). I'd say Missouri is going to have two Democratic Senators by 2010.

Posted by: soonerthought | March 6, 2009 3:06 PM | Report abuse

Chris i live in Illinois Senator Burris is out he won't win re-election. But Mark Kirk is not a good candidate for the Republicans. Another Democrat will win President Obama's old Senate seat. Dick Durbin and Harry Reid will make sure of that. I told you the Republican party is dead in illinois. The only way for a Republicans to retake the state of Illinios from the Democrats is for a Republican victory win the 2011 Chicago Mayoral election against our crooked Mayor Daley and a Republican victory against our crooked Cook County board President Todd Stroger.
If there are Republican victories in both those areas then they might have a chance for a Senate/Govenor victory later on.
In Illinois, we have a crooked Mayoral administration running the entire state including districting, polling, and counting. They will make sure their people which are Democrats win. As a Democrat i hate seeing this type of pay to play in Illinois but its their politics and it happens. The republicans will need to knock off those 2 in order to win elections in Illinois and retake it.

Posted by: mattadamsdietmanager1014 | March 6, 2009 3:02 PM | Report abuse

Clearing the primary decks can be helpful, but isn't necessary. Jim Webb won a nearly 50/50 primary before defeating George Allen. Not only do we not know what the big races will be, but we cannot know. Big things are brewing and I have no idea where we're headed.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade | March 6, 2009 2:55 PM | Report abuse

also on Crist running, its a Win for the Democrats, everyone in Florida calls Crist a RINO already, he is much more moderate than Martinez, so Crist could make a name for himself by being a deal breaker with the Dem Majority. Also, it lets the DSCC spend money else where to pick up the other open seats where the money will go much further. Also, Alex Sink can run and win the Governorship, which is more important then any single US senate seat.

Posted by: sjxylib | March 6, 2009 2:30 PM | Report abuse

Crist is going to run for Senate he wants to get his out of Tallahassee and to Washington before anyone starts blaming him for the mess the state is in. Its only the people outside of Florida who think Crist won't run, everyone here thinks its close to 90% chance he will run.

Posted by: sjxylib | March 6, 2009 2:27 PM | Report abuse

The GOP has their work cut out for themselves. The top 7 of the 10 races most likely to flip are Republican held? They need to figure out what they stand for & start making a compelling argument for it, or they really will become a regional party.

Posted by: bsimon1 | March 6, 2009 2:08 PM | Report abuse

caribis writes
""...much can change between now and next November." Am I missing something? I thought we had a longer break until the next federal election."

I believe the Fix is referring to 2010 as 'next' November. November 2009 would be 'this' November.

Posted by: bsimon1 | March 6, 2009 2:04 PM | Report abuse

TOOMEY A NON-STARTER IN PA. - IF ARLEN DOES THE RIGHT THING

If Toomey gets the nomination, chalk up that seat for the Dems for sure. Specter has enourmous goodwill built up over decades, and centrist Repubs and Dems alike approve of his enlightened stance on human and civil rights (although if he did more crusading on these issues, he would further cement his standing).

***

ATTENTION SEN. SPECTER: THIS IS WHAT IS HAPPENING ON YOUR TURF. THE AUTHOR, A CONSTITUENT WHOM YOU KNOW, TRIED AND FAILED TO GET A PERSONAL MEETING WITH YOU.

WHAT ARE YOU DOING ABOUT THIS?

***

THE BUSH TORTURE MEMOS WERE NOT JUST WORDS ON PAPER.

THE PROGRAMS THEY AUTHORIZED REMAIN IN FORCE...

INCLUDING DOMESTIC TORTURE, COMMUNITY GANG STALKING, AND MALICIOUS HARASSMENT:

* Silent, covert microwave radiation weapons assaults on innocent but "targeted" U.S. citizens;

* Terroristic vigilante community gang stalking, surreptitious home entry, police-tolerated vandalism;

* Secret federal "programs of personal financial destruction."

WHEN WILL TEAM OBAMA AND CONGRESS DISMANTLE THE 'EXTRAJUDICIAL PUNISHMENT NETWORK'?


http://www.nowpublic.com/world/gestapo-usa-govt-funded-vigilante-network-targets-terrorizes-u-s-citizens
http://www.nowpublic.com/world/domestic-torture-radiation-weaponry-americas-horrific-shame

OR (if links are corrupted / disabled):

http://www.NowPublic.com/scrivener

Posted by: scrivener50 | March 6, 2009 1:49 PM | Report abuse

"...much can change between now and next November." Am I missing something? I thought we had a longer break until the next federal election.

Posted by: caribis | March 6, 2009 1:38 PM | Report abuse

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