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Friday Senate Line: Democratic Domination

UPDATE, 2:15 p.m. ET: After deciding to pull out of the Louisiana Senate race earlier this week, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has reversed itself and is buying time in Louisiana as we speak.

"We have seen the race in Louisiana close dramatically over the past week so the strategy for this race is being re-evaluated," said NRSC communications director Rebecca Fisher. "According to publicly available information we have placed a buy for next week."

ORIGINAL POST

The National Republican Senatorial Committee's decision to pull down its advertising in Louisiana effectively ensures that Senate GOPers will be playing only defense between today and Election Day.

Friday Line

As a result, we have updated our Friday Senate Line to reflect the current state of affairs; all ten seats listed below are held by Republicans and, in each, there is a real chance that Democrats could score a pickup.

If Democrats swept every seat on the Line, they would stand at 61 seats in the Senate -- clear of the holy grail of a 60-seat filibuster-proof majority that means real governing control of the world's greatest deliberative body.

Possible? Absolutely. Probable? Not yet.

To our eye, the most likely scenario is a Democratic pickup of either seven or eight seats -- a result that would put them within a scintilla of 60 seats with another favorable cycle (by the numbers) coming up in 2010.

As always, the number one ranked race is the most likely to switch party control in November. Agree or disagree with our picks? The comments section awaits.

(We'll post a House Line this afternoon -- double dose! -- so be sure to check back later today.)

To the Line!

10. Mississippi (R): Appointed Sen. Roger Wicker has pulled in front of former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) but the race remains tight. As the Associated Press noted this week, the campaigns (and national parties) are pummeling one another on television. The big x-factor is what black turnout looks like in the state. The higher it goes, the better chance Musgrove has of pulling an upset. (Previous ranking: N/A)

McConnell
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). (Alex Wong -- Getty Images)

9. Kentucky (R): The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's decision to go up with ads knocking Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) shows how serious they are about the race. And, the NRSC's decision to pull out of Louisiana likely means that they will soon be up in the Bluegrass State as well. As we have written before, Democratic nominee Bruce Lunsford is a flawed candidate but in an environment like this one even flawed Democratic candidates can win. (Previous ranking: 9)

8. Alaska (R): If anyone can tell us what is going to happen in the federal corruption trial of Sen. Ted Stevens, we can tell you whether the incumbent is going to be reelected. If he is convinced, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) is in a VERY good place. If he is acquitted, Stevens will probably win reelection. If the trial isn't resolved until after the election, it's anybody's guess. How can you not love politics? (Previous ranking: 8)

7. Minnesota (R): Sen. Norm Coleman's decision to pull down all of his negative ads last week is a sign that his campaign did not believe that he could win a race for the bottom against comedian Al Franken (D) and independent Dean Barkley. It's an open question as to whether the gambit will work but a series of recent polls show Franken and Coleman in the high 30s with Barkley in the high teens and gaining. (Previous ranking: 7)

6. North Carolina (R): Sen. Elizabeth Dole made a classic political error over the past six years. After she coasted into office in a 2002 open seat race, she assumed that her celebrity coupled with the Republican lean of North Carolina ensured easy reelection for as long as she wanted it. But, over the ensuing six years, her numbers softened, and when national Democrats opened up a full-barrel television assault on Dole, it worked. She still hasn't recovered and it's looking increasingly likely that she won't. (Previous ranking: 5)

5. Oregon (R): Sen. Gordon Smith's attempts to latch himself to Democrats like Sens. Barack Obama, Ted Kennedy and John Kerry seem like desperate moves for a politician who doesn't see the numbers adding up. Democrats insist state House Speaker Jeff Merkley's campaign has improved drastically since the primary and he now does appear well positioned to knock off Smith. (Previous ranking: 6)

4. New Hampshire (R): A month ago, Republicans were optimistic that Sen. John Sununu could overcome the steady lead that former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) had maintained for months. The financial crisis dissolved that Sununu momentum, however, and Shaheen now seems likely to avenge her 2002 loss. (Previous ranking: 4)

Udall
Rep. Mark Udall (D-Colo.) at a taping of NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sept. 28, 2008 (Alex Wong -- Getty Images for Meet The Press).

3. Colorado (R): A recent poll conducted by Quinnipiac University for washingtonpost.com pegged Rep. Mark Udall's (D) lead over former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) at 14. That seems too high but it's clear that Udall is ahead and there are no obvious signs of a Schaffer comeback. (Previous ranking: 3)

2. New Mexico (R): Remember when Rep. Tom Udall (D) said he wouldn't run for retiring Sen. Pete Domenici's (R) seat? Man is he glad he reconsidered. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. Virginia (R): Former Gov. Mark Warner (D) will be 61 years old in November 2016. Just saying. (Previous ranking: 1)

By Chris Cillizza  |  October 17, 2008; 6:55 AM ET
Categories:  The Line  
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Next: Friday House Line: House GOP Prospects Grow Dimmer

Comments

Sen. Coleman's campaign may have stopped airing negative ads, but the RSCC has not. Do voters know there's a difference between the two, or care? I certainly doubt the latter.

Posted by: robertplantcia | October 20, 2008 12:51 PM | Report abuse

I don't see Mitch McConnell going down anymore than I see Carl Levin (we can't even remember his competitor's name here in MI)

Posted by: corridorg4 | October 19, 2008 9:21 AM | Report abuse

"Remember when Rep. Tom Udall (D) said he wouldn't run for retiring Sen. Pete Domenici's (R) seat? Man is he glad he reconsidered."

Don't you think Bob Kerrey is regretting his decision not to run for Senate in Nebraska (let alone other top tier recruits who said no in NC, GA, KY, and OR)? Mike Johanns will win pretty easily there, but against Kerrey it would've been quite a competitive race.

Posted by: JonSM99 | October 19, 2008 7:15 AM | Report abuse

If Steven is convinced? I think you mean convicted.

Posted by: JonSM99 | October 19, 2008 6:10 AM | Report abuse


All of the excitment is in Georgia. It should rank at least #9 (above MS and KY).

Posted by: hilltopper1 | October 18, 2008 3:17 PM | Report abuse

I gotta agree w/ those making a pitch for Georgia being more likely to flip the MI or KY. The polls I'm looking at make Martin look very strong right now and the pollster trendline is a sight to behold. Georgia could be the game changer.

Posted by: theamazingjex | October 18, 2008 2:42 AM | Report abuse

OBAMA plus PELOSI plus REID?!!!
NO CHECKS & BALANCES...
NO BALANCE.
OBAMA IS A SHAMELESS MAN WHO RESORTS TO VOTE STEALING, PANDERING TO SOCIALISTS AND NATIONAL TERRORISTS AND LYING TO THE PUBLIC IN ORDER TO BUY THEIR VOTES - IF HE DOESN'T BUY YOUR VOTE, HE'LL SIMPLY RAISE THE DEAD AND PLACE THE NAMES OF KINDERGARTNERS ON THE VOTING ROSTER.
OBAMA IS THE WORST OF THIS NATION'S POLITICAL POWERMONGERS AND THE MOST DANGEROUSLY AMBITIOUS.
This from a Diehard Democrat with zero racist intentions (thought I better include the racist note, since every time someone criticizes "The One" they received the "racist" attack.) My heart goes out to a simple man who asked a simple question of Obama - and is now being publicly flogged by the liberal bloggers who believe that Obama is above scrutiny.
NOTE TO COUNTRY:
Criticism is Not Racism. Obama PLEASE apologize to the United States for allying with American terrorist Ayers, say you are sorry for funding ACORN... come on Obama show a little Integrity.

Posted by: DemocratForPeace | October 17, 2008 11:08 PM | Report abuse


After what happened at the hockey game with a live audience and a live show this could really be embarrassing for Palin. In fact I am certain some will make a point to be there just to yell at her even if they get thrown out. Anyone who saw the number SNL did on Mccain on Thursday night, (They tour him a new one), knows Palin could even walking into a trap by SNL cast members. Tina Fey hates her and has said as much.

------------
"SARAH PALIN TO APPEAR ON SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE" (source: Politico.com)

Will audience members shout out "Secessionist!" or "Wildlife Killer!" during the live broadcast?

Just thinking out loud...


ARE THE McCAIN-PALIN CROWD AGITATORS THE SAME STORMTROOPERS WHO DO THIS:

http://www.nowpublic.com/world/american-gestapo-state-supported-terrorism-targets-u-s-citizens

Posted by: scrivener50 | October 17, 2008 3:27 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: popasmoke | October 17, 2008 3:45 PM | Report abuse

Whether 55 or 60 shouldn't be all that important, because we need to reduce the partisanship in both houses.

My concern is whether Sen. Harry Reid or Rep. Nancy Pelosi should be returned to their respective leadership positions, given the bridges they've burned by proving their own partisanship. I think they've turned off nearly as many Democrats as Republicans, and there are some more moderate candidates who could have more appeal across the aisle.

The other issue I'd like to see Chris address is the replacement candidates for Sens. Obama and Biden. Given the shaky position of the Illinois governor (whose name I won't try to spell), who is he likely to pick? Same for Deleware, since I think it's too early for Biden's son.

Regardless of the actual number of gains in seats, we're entering a perilous time for both Congress and the new administration; there are just so many messes to be cleaned up domestically, and we have to begin repairing our international reputation as well.

And the credit crisis and knucklehead Paulson aren't helping that at all. The British may make fun of Gordon Brown since he's got the personality of a grapefruit. But he certainly led Europe's solution to the credit problem while Paulson twiddled his fingers.

Posted by: bulldog6 | October 17, 2008 3:28 PM | Report abuse

"SARAH PALIN TO APPEAR ON SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE" (source: Politico.com)

Will audience members shout out "Secessionist!" or "Wildlife Killer!" during the live broadcast?

Just thinking out loud...


ARE THE McCAIN-PALIN CROWD AGITATORS THE SAME STORMTROOPERS WHO DO THIS:

http://www.nowpublic.com/world/american-gestapo-state-supported-terrorism-targets-u-s-citizens

Posted by: scrivener50 | October 17, 2008 3:27 PM | Report abuse

"DDAWD, Obama's supporters are the people saying it. Oprah Winfrey told the crowd that "I am here to tell you, Iowa, that he is The One". And Louis Farrakhan last week said that "when Obama talks, it is absolutely the Messiah speaking". This is the level of adoration and love that is being heaped onto this candidate, this politician that even Jeremiah Wright had to admit, just does what a politician does."

Ok, so Oprah and Farrakhan. Thanks for clarifying.

Posted by: DDAWD | October 17, 2008 3:25 PM | Report abuse

With the NRSC back in LA, that means less $$$ for other races, eg KY.

I don't think it matters if the NRSC is in any particular state or not, they're still going to get pummeled 11/4. I see the Democratic Party running the table of all the top 10 on your list Chris.

Posted by: Roofelstoon | October 17, 2008 3:16 PM | Report abuse

"What did we leave off?"

How about NY-26?

Posted by: laremiller | October 17, 2008 3:15 PM | Report abuse

proudtobeGOP writes:

"What amazes me is that the leftwing hasn't uttered one peep since he started tacking to the center and trying to become a moderate since the primaries."

Well, there was that whole FISA thing. They even started a group on his website to complain about his vote for that. I think there was at least one other thing that got the lefties agitated, but my aging memory is failing me right now.

Posted by: mnteng | October 17, 2008 3:01 PM | Report abuse

Chris,

In the section on Alaska, I believe you meant "if he is convicted" not "if he is convinced."

Posted by: acoffin | October 17, 2008 2:59 PM | Report abuse

foothillbill:

I'm with you on all points.
I couldn't wait to get US citizenship way back when but shortly before I got it I understood that this whole "democracy" thing was a damn circus, esp. when that washed up Hollywood clown with pomaded hairdo was elected.

Posted by: VMR1 | October 17, 2008 2:21 PM | Report abuse

Wow dribbl is back on the angry hate-fest again. what a complete loon.

Poor Barack, let slip his ideas for wealth reassignment. robin hood returns. All the other stuff, it turns out, didn;t mattter, it was what the messiah had in mind for our/your money that counts.

Kennedy was known as Camelot.

Obama will be known in a trival pursuit game one day as spendalot or taxalot.

the voters are now saying thanks but no thanks. polls down to two points difference. given the bias away from actual Repub votes, this seems that McCain is now ahead.

the idiotocracy will calim racism and other false charges, just tlike the moonbat dribbl, but the fact remains we don't want no stinkin' libs.

Tax collection is not about making things fair for everyone, it is about paying for essential services. when will you commies get it, another 8 years out of office??

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 17, 2008 2:14 PM | Report abuse

Palin: "Who's Barack Obama?:"
Crowd: "A Terrorist!"

compare with

Sturmbahnfuhrer: SIEG!
Hitlerjugend: HEIL!

Sturmbahnfuhrer: SIEG!
Hitlerjugend: HEIL!

Sturmbahnfuhrer: SIEG!
Hitlerjugend: HEIL!

Posted by: VMR1 | October 17, 2008 2:09 PM | Report abuse

"Ok, name me one source that makes this claim."

DDAWD, Obama's supporters are the people saying it. Oprah Winfrey told the crowd that "I am here to tell you, Iowa, that he is The One". And Louis Farrakhan last week said that "when Obama talks, it is absolutely the Messiah speaking". This is the level of adoration and love that is being heaped onto this candidate, this politician that even Jeremiah Wright had to admit, just does what a politician does.

What amazes me is that the leftwing hasn't uttered one peep since he started tacking to the center and trying to become a moderate since the primaries. I guess they'll cash in their chips when he gets elected.

Posted by: proudtobeGOP | October 17, 2008 2:08 PM | Report abuse

The pendulum swings: Neocons for a couple of decades, liberals for who knows how long?

The problem is the electorate. People are reactive, not pro-active.

Most arguments I hear are myopic, rife with fallacy and devoid of substance.

There should be one party, the sheep. Most people are talking out the opposite end from their mouths, regurgitating the sound bites their party imposes.

I will always be an independent and view all the information as objectively as I can.

The two party system is crap through and through, but the majority seems to like it that way. Enjoy your crap. Just don't try to lay it at my doorstep.

Posted by: foothillbill | October 17, 2008 2:05 PM | Report abuse

drindl said:

" And the racism comes out in full force. You animals don't even try to hide it anymore--I can smell the stench of your desperation. You used to have a brain, proud. Your hatred has evidently melted it."

Are you taking too low a dose of Valium, or somethin'? What's racist about prancing around naked in Waldorf Astoria, wearing nothing but bibs, and having couple of lobsters? I should be so lucky!
Perhaps it's because of stiffs like you we've been losing elections to ReUGLYcans?

Posted by: VMR1 | October 17, 2008 2:03 PM | Report abuse

DDAWD:

I spent part of my childhood on the Volga River (my dad was an engineer for FIAT who was building a huge automobile factory for the Russians in the late 1960s). Volga flows into the Caspian Sea - that's where you get the best caviar in the world. While rich Americans and others paid insane money for Beluga eggs, at the time it was plentiful, cheap , and common in southern Russia, esp. along the Volga delta. I remember watching cartoons on TV and absentmindedly eating that stuff by the spoonfuls and chasing it with "kvas", a Russian malt beverage.

Posted by: VMR1 | October 17, 2008 1:55 PM | Report abuse

"Reality check time: Her husband has been lauded as the Messiah and "The One"; "

Ok, name me one source that makes this claim. (McCain attack ads don't count)

Posted by: DDAWD | October 17, 2008 1:49 PM | Report abuse

Michelle Obama told CBS' "Early Show" yesterday that Barack is still the "underdog" in this race -- and that he will be, until he's sitting in The White House. In her words, she also added:


"[A] guy named Barack Obama, who is a young, beginning-to-be-known candidate, is always an underdog . . . That's how we've spent the last twenty months, really being reminded of of how long a shot this has been."

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/16/earlyshow/main4525540.shtml

The quote sounds like one of her comments last spring, when she said:

"[I]n this ever-shifting, moving bar, Barack Obama will always be the underdog. No matter how much money he raises, no matter how many wins he pulls together, no matter how many delegates he accumulates; he is still the underdog. It's the way it works."

Reality check time: Her husband has been lauded as the Messiah and "The One"; benefited from the most fawning coverage bestowed on a presidential candidate, at least since JFK; is running in the most Democrat-favorable electoral environment, at least since Watergate; has raised more funds than any presidential candidate ever; has become a worldwide celebrity; and is spending an unprecedented amount of money running negative ads about his opponent.

"And all of it has come to a man who has nary a significant legislative accomplishment to his name -- and no real professional accomplishments, aside from having published two memoirs about himself. In my world, or Joe the plumber's world, that's a pretty sweet deal. Yet in her world, they're still "underdogs."


http://townhall.com/blog/g/2a046021-de00-4542-9127-b9ad20e8f91f

It's hard to see what, short of being coronated by acclamation, would convince her that they're not victims. (Maybe that lobster and caviar at the Waldorf is somehow therapeutic.)

Posted by: proudtobeGOP | October 17, 2008 1:40 PM | Report abuse

Chris -

Mark Warner is a shoe-in for the Senate, that much is clear. But I was underwhelmed by his convenvtion speech and I'm skeptical he'd make a strong national candidate. Brian Schweitzer, on the other hand, delivered a speech that could well launch him into national office.

Posted by: randx | October 17, 2008 1:34 PM | Report abuse

The Wingnuts are seeing their 90's power grap being yanked away from them because of their own incompetence and they're throwing a tantrum. After controlling the white house for the last eight years and controlling congress for ten of the last twelve years they've proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that conservatism is a failed ideology and now they're panicking.


Here's some straight-talk, my friends:
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJThPjvscFs
.

Posted by: DrainYou | October 17, 2008 1:32 PM | Report abuse

""stayin' in Waldorf Astoria and wearing nothin' but plastic bibs."

And the racism comes out in full force. You animals don't even try to hide it anymore--I can smell the stench of your desperation. You used to have a brain, proud. Your hatred has evidently melted it."

Dude, what the hell are you talking about? How is that remotely racist?

Posted by: DDAWD | October 17, 2008 1:31 PM | Report abuse

mark_in_austin:

How much do you think an appearance by BHO or JB would do for Noriega? It sounds like what Col. Rick really needs is the BHO campaign's GOTV organization. With McC up at least 10 points in TX, though, I wouldn't expect to see BHO unless places like GA and the Northern Plains turn blue.

I'm a little surprised that Stevens is throwing his wife under the bus, though maybe I shouldn't be. My dream result for the senatorial elections is for Stevens, Chambliss, and Inhofe to be sent packing. If we're lucky, we'll get 2/3 of that.

Posted by: mnteng | October 17, 2008 1:29 PM | Report abuse

"I love caviar myself."

I don't think I could convince myself to buy that stuff if I were Warren Buffet rich. Hundreds of dollars for a few ounces? I've never had caviar, but that's expensive.

Lobsters are good, but I prefer crabs.

Posted by: DDAWD | October 17, 2008 1:28 PM | Report abuse

Except for those of us spending a lot of time in the Peach State, Georgia's senate race appears to be off the radar for most people, including Chris. According to local reports, Democrat Jim Martin has drawn the race to a statistical tie with incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss. The airwaves are being rapidly filled with Martin ads (hard-hitting) and Saxby ads (increasingly bitter and negative).

While some state-by-state electoral maps show Georgia solid red for McCain, others note that it is only "leaning" Republican.

The displeasure with the current direction of the government, coupled with the sour (rotten, actually) economy, and the absolute UNBRIDLED ENTHUSIASM for Obama is palpable -- just stroll along the sidewalks and see all the t-shirts, yard signs, and bumper stickers proclaiming the excitement for this man.

Besides his general appeal across the populace, his appeal to the black population is undeniable. Georgia is 30 percent African-American. That's a base you can't beat. This will infuse everyone in the Democratic column with a boost, including Martin.

Chris, take a look at the poll numbers -- Georgia is as close as can be.


Posted by: johndog | October 17, 2008 1:23 PM | Report abuse

drindl, I was quoting VMR1 at 12:48 PM who replied to zouk "You should treat YOUR wife to some of those tiny black fish eggs from the Caspian sturgeon - she might like it."

I don't give a rat's behind what the Obamas do at a five-star hotel.

Posted by: proudtobeGOP | October 17, 2008 1:22 PM | Report abuse

Uhh, look all around you, proud, at the wreckage your party has wreaked. The loss of billions in wealth. The crippling of the nation's economic system. Everywhere, wreckage, destruction.

And this is what happens every time the R's are in power, becuase they are not intrested in governing, just in transferring wealth upwards and stealing taxpayer's money and giving it to lobbyists. Death and destruction is all they wreak.

And every time, Dems have to come in and clean up the work of murderous children.

Posted by: drindl | October 17, 2008 1:18 PM | Report abuse

ARE ROGUE ELEMENTS FROM WITHIN A DANGER TO OBAMA AND BIDEN AND DEMOCRACY ITSELF?

Re: drindl at 1:04 p.m.

Yes, your observation is correct. The officials of the COP have used official and unofficial invective to declare an open season on Sen. Obama. The threats issued by the rally crowds are now being denied in some quarters.

Congressional leaders should speak out and demand that the enforcers of the law of the land live up to their sworn oaths and fuly investigate who is behind these threats.

CABINET SECRETARIES WITH AUTHORITY OVER U.S. SECURITY FORCES MUST TAKE ACTION FROM WITHIN...

THE DANGER IS THAT A ROGUE ELEMENT WITHIN THE SECURITY FORCES MAY BE PART OF THE PROBLEM.

http://www.nowpublic.com/world/american-gestapo-state-supported-terrorism-targets-u-s-citizens

Posted by: scrivener50 | October 17, 2008 1:15 PM | Report abuse

I'm looking forward to a Democratic administration and Democratic controlled Congress.

I know the administration has the correct vision to steer America back on to the right path and Joe Biden will do his part to win over Congress to help pass the administration's proposals.

It will not be easy to fix the mess the 8 years of a mostly Republican administration and Congress has created. The mess they have created cannot be corrected over night or in a few months.

Americans are by nature very impatient and expect overnight miracles from their government, but they will have to be patient and give the new administration and Congress sufficient time to repair the damage that has been done. Don't be critical of the new administration after 4 months. Any new administration will need the full 4 to fully repair what has been done in the past 8 years.

I know new jobs are forth coming in the renewable energy sector, but it will take time to retool closed factories and to create new ones. In the mean time I think government should create a job training program that will prepare people to move into the new jobs that will be created.

Posted by: Nevadaandy | October 17, 2008 1:13 PM | Report abuse

"stayin' in Waldorf Astoria and wearing nothin' but plastic bibs."

And the racism comes out in full force. You animals don't even try to hide it anymore--I can smell the stench of your desperation. You used to have a brain, proud. Your hatred has evidently melted it.

Posted by: drindl | October 17, 2008 1:11 PM | Report abuse

"Democrats are just not capable of the kind of malicious hatred"

ROFL!! Oh, right. Like that's not what they do 24/7 at DailyKos or Air America. Gimme a break.

The facts are not in question:

If Barack Obama wins the White House on November 4 and Democrats consolidate their Congressional majorities, they'll have a filibuster-proof Senate or very close to it.

The editors @ the WSJ note "Although we doubt most Americans realize it, this would be one of the most profound political and ideological shifts in U.S. history. Liberals would dominate the entire government in a way they haven't since 1965, or 1933.

In other words, the election would mark the restoration of the activist government that fell out of public favor in the 1970s. If the U.S. really is entering a period of unchecked left-wing ascendancy, Americans at least ought to understand what they will be getting, especially with the media cheering it all on."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122420205889842989.html

Posted by: proudtobeGOP | October 17, 2008 1:11 PM | Report abuse

'Yeah, they were probably just role playing Elliot Spitzer, no big deal. Whatever Michelle wants, I'm sure she gets.'

Don't you mean stinkin', filthy rich, spoiled Cindy McCain, dear? The one with the $100 grand Amex bills and the $10 grand outfits?

You know, the drug addict who stole drugs from a children's aid agency and who stole McCain from his crippled first wife?

You know, that Cindy?

You really have a lot of never saying anythig about Michelle, a law-abiding citizen.

Posted by: drindl | October 17, 2008 1:09 PM | Report abuse

You might be excused if you said placing Obama’s face on a $10 food stamp with a bucket of fried chicken, watermelon, ribs, and Kool-Aid was an isolated act.

When a major right-wing network calls Michelle Obama, “Obama’s Baby Mama,” you could dismiss it as as an overzealous producer who just thought it was funny and didn’t mean it to say that black women are just baby machines for black men. You could, I suppose.

You might even get a pass if you thought a Web site that depicted Obama and the word “Waterboard Him” was just created by an obscure group that didn’t represent all Republicans – although you would be wrong. [It was the VA state party.]

If a picture of Obama was Photoshopped to make him look a little bit like Osama Bin Laden, you could pass it off as the work of a few idiots on the right. It could be, right? [A NC state party mailer.]

Supporters who carry racist Obama Monkey Dolls to your rallys are people who don’t represent your campaign. You cou
ld argue that.

Of course, this is just a moron on the fringe, right?

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_1xQeOPE9ePU/SO-7MctOreI/AAAAAAAACqY/v0YKXICIIIY/s1600/craigslist2.jpg

What about when a high-level Republican fundraiser sends out an email that includes a joke with the punchline, if an airplane carrying Obama and his wife were blown up “it certainly wouldn’t be a great loss, and it probably wouldn’t be an accident either.”? Sure, you could pass it off as the act of a random dumbass.

'TAMPA - Al Austin, a high-level Republican fundraiser from Tampa, sent an e-mail to his list of his political contacts Wednesday containing a joke that refers to the assassination of Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.'

If, in response to your question, “Who is Barack Obama?” someone yelled “Terrorist!” you could say that was just one idiot in the crowd and was not indicative of the general sentiment. It’s plausible.

In fact, you could cite dozens of examples of these racist, divisive, dillusiuonal attacks on Barack Obama and conclude that they are just elements of the fringe and don’t represent mainstream Republicans.

Sooner or later though, you will have to acknowledge that this “fringe” is very widespread. You’ll have to come to grips, eventually, with the fact that this “fringe” has become the very definition of the your party.

Posted by: drindl | October 17, 2008 1:05 PM | Report abuse


***GALLUP SHOCK: 49 OBAMA, 47 MCCAIN WITH LIKELY VOTERS***

Joe the Plumber is destroying the Obama campaign.

Obama has been exposed as a socialist - take from the workers, give to the non-workers.

The Obama campaign is sinking like the Titanic. Can someone throw one of those styrofoam Greek columns to Obama before he drowns!


Posted by: JPVanderbilt | October 17, 2008 1:04 PM | Report abuse

You might be excused if you said placing Obama’s face on a $10 food stamp with a bucket of fried chicken, watermelon, ribs, and Kool-Aid was an isolated act.

When a major right-wing network calls Michelle Obama, “Obama’s Baby Mama,” you could dismiss it as as an overzealous producer who just thought it was funny and didn’t mean it to say that black women are just baby machines for black men. You could, I suppose.

You might even get a pass if you thought a Web site that depicted Obama and the word “Waterboard Him” was just created by an obscure group that didn’t represent all Republicans – although you would be wrong. [It was the VA state party.]

If a picture of Obama was Photoshopped to make him look a little bit like Osama Bin Laden, you could pass it off as the work of a few idiots on the right. It could be, right? [A NC state party mailer.]

Supporters who carry racist Obama Monkey Dolls to your rallys are people who don’t represent your campaign. You cou
ld argue that.

Of course, this is just a moron on the fringe, right?

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_1xQeOPE9ePU/SO-7MctOreI/AAAAAAAACqY/v0YKXICIIIY/s1600/craigslist2.jpg

What about when a high-level Republican fundraiser sends out an email that includes a joke with the punchline, if an airplane carrying Obama and his wife were blown up “it certainly wouldn’t be a great loss, and it probably wouldn’t be an accident either.”? Sure, you could pass it off as the act of a random dumbass.

'TAMPA - Al Austin, a high-level Republican fundraiser from Tampa, sent an e-mail to his list of his political contacts Wednesday containing a joke that refers to the assassination of Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.'

If, in response to your question, “Who is Barack Obama?” someone yelled “Terrorist!” you could say that was just one idiot in the crowd and was not indicative of the general sentiment. It’s plausible.

In fact, you could cite dozens of examples of these racist, divisive, dillusiuonal attacks on Barack Obama and conclude that they are just elements of the fringe and don’t represent mainstream Republicans.

Sooner or later though, you will have to acknowledge that this “fringe” is very widespread. You’ll have to come to grips, eventually, with the fact that this “fringe” has become the very definition of the your party.

Posted by: drindl | October 17, 2008 1:04 PM | Report abuse

"stayin' in Waldorf Astoria and wearing nothin' but plastic bibs."

Yeah, they were probably just role playing Elliot Spitzer, no big deal. Whatever Michelle wants, I'm sure she gets.

Posted by: proudtobeGOP | October 17, 2008 1:01 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: king_of_zouk

"Wednesday, Michelle Obama called room service and ordered lobster hors d'oeuvres, two whole steamed lobsters, Iranian caviar and champagne, a tipster told Page Six."

What's wrong with that?? Would you rather they had couple of hot dogs, a bag of pork rinds, and that piss-water the flyover country calls Budweiser beer?

I love caviar myself. Champagne, not so much. And a good steamed lobster once in a while is a good treat. Esp.when you and your woman - both obviously still in love with each other after many years and two children - are stayin' in Waldorf Astoria and wearing nothin' but plastic bibs.

You should treat YOUR wife to some of those tiny black fish eggs from the Caspian sturgeon - she might like it. But that might require putting off purchasing that shiny 9 mm you've been salivatin' about for a while...

Posted by: VMR1 | October 17, 2008 12:48 PM | Report abuse

Why do you flag a comment about sloppy editing without fixing the mistake?

"Convinced" should be "convicted."

I still hold that The Fix is too hung up on typing to remember to actually think all the time.

Posted by: bakuninhong | October 17, 2008 12:48 PM | Report abuse

'drindl, Stop trying to transfer all of your hate and negativity onto the other party. '

you people have a real gift for projection. you put out mailers and robocalls that incite fear and hatred and violence against democrats --your party has been genius at that since Lee Atwater, the only thing you do well -- and then you disingenously claim that we who complain about it are the 'haters.'

Sorry, proud. Democrats are just not capable of the kind of malicious hatred that has poisoned the R party.

Posted by: drindl | October 17, 2008 12:46 PM | Report abuse

drindl, Stop trying to transfer all of your hate and negativity onto the other party.
Why do you have a problem with a statement of facts?

Barack Obama has worked closely with domestic terrorist Bill Ayers! that is a fact. Ayers' organization DID bomb the U.S. capitol, the Pentagon, a judge's home and it KILLED Americans! And Democrats Obama, Pelosi, Reid, and others like Frank, Dodd, and Schumer will most definitely enact an extreme leftist agenda coupled with unchecked spending if they take control of Washington.

Those are the facts.

Posted by: proudtobeGOP | October 17, 2008 12:40 PM | Report abuse

Texan2007:

It would seem to me you're wasting your time publishing your gibberish on these blogs. There are no undecideds here, don't you see? Every posts is either pro or against Obama or McCain. So, at best, you're preaching to the likes of you who like to come around here and annoy normal people.

Perhaps you should google a blog for the un-decided voters. But I suspect you drivel would only push them toward Obama.
Anyway, just a friendly advice.

Posted by: VMR1 | October 17, 2008 12:35 PM | Report abuse

Democrat Stupination is more like it.

They are ALL OVER the internet, blogs an media with NO LICENSE PLUMBER JOE!

What about Obama not having United States citizenship because he claimed Indonesia citizenship for several years and/or a legal birth certificate in the U S
( A LICENSE) to be running for President of the United States of America?
And if he does have a license to run, he is 1/2 American and it shows by his ties to ANTI AMERICAN and racist Wright and ANTI AMERICAN terroist Ayers!

AND YOU WANT TO TALK ABOUT A GUY that IS AMERICAN as BOTH parents ARE AMERICAN earning a living as a Plumber in Ohio?
Stupination!

AMERICA, FOR GOD'S SAKE WAKE UP!

Posted by: Texan2007 | October 17, 2008 12:28 PM | Report abuse

CONVINC(T)ED

Sloppy! Hackish! Why don't you proof read your posts? You are supposed to be a journo.

Posted by: bakuninhong | October 17, 2008 12:24 PM | Report abuse

Wow is what Democrats are thinking! Republicans had a huge senate edge in 2004 and building. In 2006, a 49-49-2 deadlock was to their advantage as Bernie Sanders campaigns with Dems. and that gave them 50-49-1 edge. Then Joe Lieberman voted to elect Harry Reid senate majority leader. Flipping senate leadership from Bill Frist (R-Tn) to Harry Reid (D-NV) is a big switch. Now, here in 2008, democrats will make even larger gains. They got a few great breaks when John Warner (R-VA) & Pete Domenici retired. 2 Republicans that were assured reelection retired and now has assured those seats to become Democratic. Mark Warner has won in Va easily & Tom Udall won the race the day the R primary ended and Pearce beat Wilson. Wayne Allard retired in Colorodo, and now R's have a wanna be 04 candidate in Shaffer defending the seat that has backed up on issues such as abortion and has disgruntled the R base. John Sununu and John McCain are fighting hard in New Hampshire, but both are losing the fight. I expect New Hampshire to really tighten as McCain still has a good shot to win it. Right now, Shaheen is the front-runner in the rematch from 2002. Oregon is a democratic state that has liked Gordon Smith for years. Smith has alot of personal money and can inject it into this campaign over the next 3 weeks to win this race if needed. Smith vs. Merkley is close, but Smith has an advantage both financially and the incumbency advantage. Minn. is a purple state that should trend with the rest of the nation. However, in 06 they split the ticket: reelecting Pawlenty as governor and electing a new US Senator: Democrat Kloubacher. Coleman looks good for reelection right now and he's the definate front runner.Independance candidate Barkley is impressive and seems to be gaining daily. North Carolina is a battleground state this time around. I think McCain will win it in the end. I believe Pat McCrory will beat Bev. Perdue and win the governor's mansion. Usually, NC votes R for senate & President and for a D governor. This time around, R McCrory will likely win the governor's mansion & McCain will likely pull out NC. So, can Liddy Dole convince voters she deserves another 6 years? Or will Kay Hagan convince voters she is a traditional NC democrat in the mold of Mike Easley and will fight for the little guy in DC? Right now, the race is on an even scale. Dole has to really work hard to turn this thing around.

Predictions:
Democratic senate gains:
1. Virginia: Democrat Mark Warner
2. New Mexico: Democrat Tom Udall
Lean democrat:
1. Colorodo: Mark Udall is front-runner
2. New Hampshire: Shaheen is front-runner
Lean Republican:
1. Oregon: Gordon Smith is the front runner, but Merkley is coming hard.
2. Minnosota: Coleman is a crafty politician and I believe he pulls it out.
3. North Carolina: NC's republican leaning & Dole's name recognition hands her an advantage. But Hagan is a great campaigner and is charging hard til the end.

Posted by: reason5 | October 17, 2008 12:21 PM | Report abuse

Come on, no Georgia? How can you put Kentucky on there but completely neglect Georgia? Saxby Chambliss is on the ropes, and Jim Martin is coming on strong. And, after what Chambliss did to Max Cleland, is there a member any more deserving of defeat?

Posted by: keilprti1 | October 17, 2008 12:04 PM | Report abuse

No wonder that the GOP is actively engaged in voter suppression, including posing as an Obama campaign caller at 3 in the morning.

For the latest roundup of GOP dirty tricks nationwide, and the sites to monitor to keep tabs on it:

http://scootmandubious.blogspot.com/2008/10/gop-will-try-to-steal-this-election.html

Posted by: scootmandubious | October 17, 2008 12:03 PM | Report abuse


LETTERMAN CROSS-EXAMINATION CONVICTS MCCAIN

David Letterman eviscerated McCain on the William Ayers and Sarah Palin issues. He exposed the sophistry of McCain's argument that Palin is qualified... Letterman's provocations forced McCain to defend his association with convicted Watergate burglar G. Godon Liddy.

McCain's responses revealed himself. This should be front page news. You should be printing the transcript of Letterman's skillful interrogation.

Letterman did what the mainstream media has not been able to do -- get McCain to indict himself on these talking points.

ARE THE McCAIN-PALIN CROWD AGITATORS THE SAME STORMTROOPERS WHO DO THIS:

http://www.nowpublic.com/world/american-gestapo-state-supported-terrorism-targets-u-s-citizens

Posted by: scrivener50 | October 17, 2008 12:03 PM | Report abuse


LETTERMAN CROSS-EXAMINATION CONVICTS MCCAIN

David Letterman eviscerated McCain on the William Ayers and Sarah Palin issues. He exposed the sophistry of McCain's argument that Palin is qualified... Letterman's provocations forced McCain to defend his association with convicted Watergate burglar G. Godon Liddy.

McCain's responses revealed himself. This should be front page news. You should be printing the transcript of Letterman's skillful interrogation.

Letterman did what the mainstream media has not been able to do -- get McCain to indict himself on these talking points.

ARE THE McCAIN-PALIN CROWD AGITATORS THE SAME STORMTROOPERS WHO DO THIS:

http://www.nowpublic.com/world/american-gestapo-state-supported-terrorism-targets-u-s-citizens

Posted by: scrivener50 | October 17, 2008 12:01 PM | Report abuse

The Borgen Project has some good info on the cost of addressing global poverty.
$30 billion: Annual shortfall to end world hunger.
$540 billion: Annual U.S. Defense Budget

Posted by: maryna1 | October 17, 2008 11:59 AM | Report abuse

Maybe since the GOP can't win either way, they'll just incite some nut to try to kill Obama.

Do you not think, CC, that there will be folks out there, who will see this and think to themselves, 'I've got to save my country from this terrorist? It's my patriotic duty.'?

And can you blame them--after hearing this vicious propaganda?

"William Ayers, the "washed-up old terrorist" McCain said last night he doesn't care about, is coming to a telephone near you. The McCain-Palin campaign has launched a third round of negative robocalls in NC starring - yep, you guessed it.

"Hello. I'm calling for John McCain and the RNC because you need to know that Barack Obama has worked closely with domestic terrorist Bill Ayers, whose organization bombed the U.S. capitol, the Pentagon, a judge's home and killed Americans. And Democrats will enact an extreme leftist agenda if they take control of Washington. Barack Obama and his Democratic allies lack the judgment to lead our country. This call was paid for by McCain-Palin 2008 and the Republican National Committee at 202-863-8500."

Here's a video version on YouTube (HT: HuffPo). And yes, CNN has confirmed the GOP is behind the calls, which are showing up in swing states everywhere."

Posted by: drindl | October 17, 2008 11:49 AM | Report abuse

the champion of the poor:

Though he's battling GOP accusations that he's an Ivy League elitist, Barack Obama has a lifestyle of the rich and famous, like TV show host Robin Leach, who always signed off, "Champagne wishes and caviar dreams!" While he was at a meeting at the Waldorf-Astoria at 4 p.m. Wednesday, Michelle Obama called room service and ordered lobster hors d'oeuvres, two whole steamed lobsters, Iranian caviar and champagne, a tipster told Page Six.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 17, 2008 11:32 AM | Report abuse

Looks like the shine is off the messiah. his lead is now down to two points and he has fallen below 50% again.

It would seem that all the slop about his past is nothing compared to his plans for the future. that little toto the plumber has pulled back the curtain for all to see.

In typical loony angry left style, the haters go after the messenger for asking THE ONE a question.

He is clearly humor challenged and looked like his old bumbling, stumbling self last night, now that he is off his memorized talking points.

biden it seems, has returned to his home planet -at least upstairs he has.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | October 17, 2008 11:23 AM | Report abuse

What an upside-down country we live in. Who would have guessed, as little as nine months ago, that we'd be talking about electing a black president and Democratic senators in the Deep South. Amazing.

As to Mark Warner, I was deeply disappointed when he decided not to run for president this time around... I was sure he was more electable than Hillary or Edwards, let alone that obscure kid Obama. Sure glad I was wrong!

- Another 2016 Warner voter.

Posted by: goalkick9 | October 17, 2008 11:08 AM | Report abuse

The Democratic controlled Congress required that lenders make a certain number of loans to individuals with poor credit histories. In their efforts to ensure that the "underpriviledged" can get loans, lenders must meet the minimum quota of loans to those with less than good credit. This helped the explosion of subprime and Alt-A loans, which was the trigger for the entire meltdown on Wall Street."

Wait a minute. I thought it was Bill Clinton in the 1990s who was responsible.

Assuming you are correct, though: how can a Dem congress that didn't take over until January 2007 make legislation that helped people buy homes in the 7 years before taking over?

Go back to Rush and Hannity, then come back with an answer.

Posted by: HammeroftheStupid | October 17, 2008 10:30 AM

******************************

The way I see it, Adjustable Rate Mortgages were the biggest problem for low income people. Once the rates reset people went into shock. I wonder if they told people about the interest rates when they got the loan. Then ya had the scammers doing things I've never even heard of before. And the grand finally was Wall Streets bundled security's that spread this mess far and wide.

Posted by: HemiHead66 | October 17, 2008 11:05 AM | Report abuse

PALIN SAID TO BE SUFFERING FROM DEPRESSION. THEY HAVE HER IN AN EVER TIGHTENING BUBBLE TO KEEP HER AWAY FROM AND KIND OF PRESS. SHE IS SAID TO BE PRAYING TO GOD FOR THE POLLS TO CHANGE. PALIN KNON TO BE A PAST USER OF ANTIDEPRESSANTS MAY HAVE A PROBLEM EVEN MAKING IT THROUGH THE END OF THE ELECTION. THE REPUBLICANS ARE OVER WORKING HER ON THE STUMP AND SHE IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF CRACKING.

Posted by: popasmoke | October 17, 2008 11:01 AM | Report abuse

I'll admit that I don't live there and haven't visited in several years, but my sense is that Alaskans are increasingly embarassed by Palin, Stevens, and Young. Their growing distaste for Palin won't put McCain in jeopardy there, but I think Stevens is toast whether acquitted or not.

Posted by: Stonecreek | October 17, 2008 11:00 AM | Report abuse

Beating that veteran-hating sleazebag Chambliss would be the sweetest thing of all.

Posted by: light_bearer | October 17, 2008 10:50 AM | Report abuse

As and Independent voter in NC and having previously lived in MD and worked in DC until retirement, I have watched E. Dole grow in her political career and I am no longer a fan of hers. She, like McCain and his running mate are cut of the same cloth as Bush. What I see here in my area are people hurting and more questions than answers and expecting more bad time than good in our immediate future. The Dole campaign is indeed in trouble here and for many reasons. My belief is she will loose the bid for reelection this time.

Posted by: independent15 | October 17, 2008 10:50 AM | Report abuse

liberman is pain in the as...he does not believe in america. he will pal with neocon to get all pac's (aipac, cpac, zpac...) agenda done

Posted by: james_uttin | October 17, 2008 10:41 AM | Report abuse

I don't think you can say if Stevens is acquitted he's going to win re-election. He's polling under 50 percent. And he's still trailing Mark Begich in most surveys. I think it's interesting that you placed Kentucky ahead of both Mississippi and Georgia as both Wicker and Chambliss are under 50 percent and locked in tighter races than McConnell. These two are races where high African-Ameican turnout may not aid Sen. Obama, but they should help down-ballot candidates such as these pull out a victory (the obvious benefit of coattails over a Sen. Clinton).
You said you were going to expand your House line due to recent events. Likewise, your Senate line should have been expanded one more. This list implies that we only have a chance to pick up 10 and not 11 seats. If everything goes our way we could defeat all three of those incumbents teetering under 50 percent.

Posted by: jdunph1 | October 17, 2008 10:41 AM | Report abuse

John McCain has been Doled And Gored. Admittedly, every card has been dealt to Obama - but McCain's handlers have distorted McCain from a hero to a monster. .............
http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/10/17/mccain-has-been-doled-and-gored/

Posted by: glclark4750 | October 17, 2008 10:32 AM | Report abuse

"The Democratic controlled Congress required that lenders make a certain number of loans to individuals with poor credit histories. In their efforts to ensure that the "underpriviledged" can get loans, lenders must meet the minimum quota of loans to those with less than good credit. This helped the explosion of subprime and Alt-A loans, which was the trigger for the entire meltdown on Wall Street."

Wait a minute. I thought it was Bill Clinton in the 1990s who was responsible.

Assuming you are correct, though: how can a Dem congress that didn't take over until January 2007 make legislation that helped people buy homes in the 7 years before taking over?

Go back to Rush and Hannity, then come back with an answer.

Posted by: HammeroftheStupid | October 17, 2008 10:30 AM | Report abuse

Vent your anger toward Bush by voting for socialism. Makes sense. It's been so successful in the annals of history. Also give more power to Freddie-Fannie favorites Dodd and Obama. Makes sense. Give more power to 9 percent popularity Pelosi. Makes sense.

Posted by: leapin | October 17, 2008 9:55 AM

==========================

I haven't the slightest clue why the media favors Pelosi to win. I'd say that scanks career is over.

Posted by: HemiHead66 | October 17, 2008 10:29 AM | Report abuse

MNTENG, I think BradCPA is on his way to CO, but I would bet his volunteer work would be worth more in NV.
Brad?

I still do not think Col. Rick has a chance of winning, but he might outpace BHO by a couple of points. Mnteng, BHO has not come to TX. HRC is not coming, and JB is not coming. It would take a massive turnout in places where massive turnouts do not occur [LRGV, I am finger pointing] to give Col. Rick a slim shot. Now I have heard that WJC may make an appearance for Noriega.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 17, 2008 10:27 AM | Report abuse

mark_in_austin and bradcpa:

How's Col. Rick doing down in TX? It looks like HillPAC is going to spend some money down your way to support Noriega, but maybe it would better be spent on Lampson.

Reminds me that I should visit BurntOrangeReport.com.

Posted by: mnteng | October 17, 2008 10:18 AM | Report abuse

To the poster who claims the Republicans are entirely to blame for the Wall Street (subprime mortgage, etc) mess, let me remind you of one fact. The Democratic controlled Congress required that lenders make a certain number of loans to individuals with poor credit histories. In their efforts to ensure that the "underpriviledged" can get loans, lenders must meet the minimum quota of loans to those with less than good credit. This helped the explosion of subprime and Alt-A loans, which was the trigger for the entire meltdown on Wall Street.

Posted by: Lalalu | October 17, 2008 10:16 AM | Report abuse

"Who is Dean Barkley, and which party would he caucus with if he wins?"

Sen Barkley has said he would caucus with the party in power. For now, that means the Dems. If that changes in the next six years, he'd switch his caucus. The joy of being an independant!

As others have noted, his candidacy is a real wildcard in this year's race. Franken & Coleman are both flawed candidates, opening the door for a 3rd party candidate to make real gains. Latest polls show him around 20, with Franken & Coleman in the high 30s. This is the same scenario under which Ventura won the governorship (beating Coleman & Humphrey Jr), when Barkley was running his campaign.

Posted by: bsimon1 | October 17, 2008 10:15 AM | Report abuse

Don't worry about President Obama and a Democratic-controlled Congress. Instead, remember how President Bush and his Republican-controlled Congress tried to destroy the Democrats for good, tried to destroy the Constitution, and tried to convert our good country into the United Neoconservative States of America (UNSA). Don't ever forget those dark days.

President Obama would never abuse his power in such a way. Would he? He'd better not!

Posted by: dognabbit | October 17, 2008 10:10 AM | Report abuse

Mark:

I live in North Carolina and Andy's assessment is accurate. THe DSCC adds with two old guys in rocking chair's talking about DOle being 93rd in effectiveness and 92 percent in agreement with Bush really hit home. A recent one on pork barrell spending hsa been effective as well. Dole's counter punches have not landed. Hagan hits Dole as an experienced Washington insider that has not delivered for NC- if Obama comes close in NC, Hagan wins.

Posted by: sllfthom | October 17, 2008 10:00 AM | Report abuse

I'll go way out on a limb and say that Stevens will be "convinced."

Do they no longer employ copy editors at the Compost?

Posted by: info42 | October 17, 2008 9:57 AM | Report abuse

Vent your anger toward Bush by voting for socialism. Makes sense. It's been so successful in the annals of history. Also give more power to Freddie-Fannie favorites Dodd and Obama. Makes sense. Give more power to 9 percent popularity Pelosi. Makes sense.

Posted by: leapin | October 17, 2008 9:55 AM | Report abuse

just what we would not need.. all democrats.. it would be just as rotten as all Gop.

mccain for president with the democrats having the senate and house would be the best.

Posted by: newagent99 | October 17, 2008 9:45 AM | Report abuse

If the Dems pick up 61 seats they better show Lieberman the door.

Posted by: PatrickNYC1 | October 17, 2008 9:42 AM | Report abuse

Mark, I am actually in Uganda right now for work (where BTW everyone is supporting Obama, I have seen close to twenty bumperstickers here for him). But I am from NC originally and my family still lives there. They tell me that Hagan has been very impressive in her campaign and has been winning middle of the road people over for the past few months now.

Also the line that the DSCC and Hagan have used is that Dole is never in the State and doesn't have their best interest at heart. That seems to be sticking and with a huge black turnout which is almost guaranteed at this point I expect Hagan to win easily.

Posted by: AndyR3 | October 17, 2008 9:38 AM | Report abuse

This is by far the worst I have seen of McCain's supporters racism:

http://liesliesmorelies.blogspot.com/2008/10/mccain-racist-rally-goers-pt-6-worst-so.html

Posted by: Snakeheader | October 17, 2008 9:37 AM | Report abuse

Looking at the Coattail Effect.

In North Carolina- If Obama wins North Carolina- Hagan will defeat Dole by a 5-10 percent margin.

In Georgia- If Obama comes close to winning Georgia than Martin narrowly unseats Chambliss giving Democrats the 60th Seat.

Posted by: nkpatel1279 | October 17, 2008 9:37 AM | Report abuse

BTW, SUNUNU has been a terrible senator,, just like OBAMA will be a terrible prez

Posted by: newagent99 | October 17, 2008 9:36 AM | Report abuse

sununu is like obama.. he needs to go out and get a real job, learn somethings and then decide if he actually wants to be in politics.

Posted by: newagent99 | October 17, 2008 9:35 AM | Report abuse

Warner's a lock for the Senate, but he didn't help his higher ambitions with that Amway-sounding keynote in Denver. He'll have plenty of chances for a do-over, though.

Posted by: FlownOver | October 17, 2008 9:33 AM | Report abuse

I would agree with Chris. I think 1-7 are in the bag. I think there is a good chance that one of 8-10 will go Democratic. Olympia Snow and Susan Collins may start thinking about switching parties…..

Posted by: bradcpa | October 17, 2008 9:31 AM | Report abuse

AndyR, You are in NC, right? What does the Senate race look like from your city [I forget where you are, but I seem to remember that you are Wolfpack - sorry about last night].

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 17, 2008 9:29 AM | Report abuse

After undergoing at least 8 years of full Republican control of Congress and the WH in 6 of 8 years, is it any surprise that the USA is in dire financial straits because of their one sided rule? The GOP has basically bankrupted their entire ideology with the crash of Wall St. and the idiotic leadership of a GOP Congress and the President. Please do not discount the fraud and corruption in Washington by the GOP. Do not forget Abramoff and what he did for the GOP. Do not forget Cheney's secret energy plan or the profiteering in Iraq by the Republicans. Please don't forget about the Duke Cunninghams and the rest of the representatives in jail from the party of Lincoln. Mr. Lincoln would be ashamed and embarrassed for his party were he alive today. It always takes the Democrats to clean up the Republican mess. And remember this all of you foolish conservatives, investing $10K dollars in 1929 would be worth $51K today (not including Hoovers time in office) under Republican presidents since then but would be worth over $300K today under Democrat presidents since that time. This doesn't even include the stink the GOP has dispensed onto the world. Enough said....

Posted by: joecrisefulli | October 17, 2008 9:25 AM | Report abuse

I'd be happy to vote for Mark Warner in 2016. Smart, pro-business Democrat from the South. Sound familiar?

Let's see how the economy is doing then, but if things aren't great, he'd be a really good candidate for the Democrats.

Posted by: ManUnitdFan | October 17, 2008 9:18 AM | Report abuse

There is no parallel between what happened with the Senate and Congress during Bush's two terms and what might happen if Democrats increase their majorities in an Obama term (or two). Historically, Democrats have been more independent than the rubberstamp Republicans have been during Bush Jr.'s White House occupancy. That's unlikely to change. There are still quite a few "blue dog" democrats. Those who are old enough to remember will remember that despite having a Democrat in the presidency and control of both house of congress, Johnson never achieved the kind of lock-step party-line voting that Bush has enjoyed. So, even with 61 Democrats in the Senate, it may be filibuster proof, but it won't be predictably partisan.

Posted by: rob15 | October 17, 2008 9:10 AM | Report abuse


VOTE DEMOCRATIC ACROSS THE BOARD, CUT THEM OFF AT THE KNEES. LEAVE NO REPUBLICANS STANDING WHEN THIS IS OVER. TOTAL DESTRUCTION ON THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.
EMAILS ARE CIRCULATING ALL OVER THE PLACE AND I CAN TELL YOU I KNOW NO ONE WHO WILL BE VOTING FOR ANY REPUBLICANS AND I DON'T CARE WHO THE PERSON IS.
MCCAIN WHO IS A PATHETIC LITTLE TROLL AND A TRAITOR TO HIS COUNTRY (DOCUMENTED) AND HIS STOOGE PALIE WILL LOSE AND LEAVE THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IN THE GARBAGE WHERE IT BELONGS FOR MANY YEARS TO COME.

Posted by: popasmoke | October 17, 2008 9:09 AM | Report abuse

I disagree with the folks that think 60 is out of the question. The black turnout in Mississippi and Georgia will be unprecedented and I think you may see Chamblis go down too. I would even venture to say that Chamblis is at more of a risk then McConnel. In most polls Chambliss is below 50% and that is not a good sign for a well established incumbent.
I also am glad to see that Dole is finally getting her due on this list. Another race to keep an eye on is the other Mississippi race. If the black vote really carries the day it might sweep Cochran out too.

Posted by: AndyR3 | October 17, 2008 9:08 AM | Report abuse

It looks to me like the D's are locked into at least a 6-seat pickup (CC's top 6), and out of the other 5 competitive seats (CC's 7-10 plus GA), the D's should pick up at least 2. That means a minimum of 58 D's, and who knows what will happen with Joe Lieberman.

But let's think about Lieberman for a moment. The Senate is about relationships. Holy Joe has relationships with both sides that have been forged out of the public eye in back rooms and dining rooms and committee rooms. No one really trusts him anymore, but he's the ultimate swing voter.

Joe wants what's good for Joe. The R's can't offer him much anymore. He could maybe be Ranking on the committee of his choice, but that's the best they can do. Right now, with the D's, he's Chair of Homeland Security. The D's won't give him a better committee chair, but they'll likely have to keep him as chair of that cmte if they want to keep him. And they do want to keep him. Even if he is a back-stabbing turncoat.

So, when the smoke of the election battle clears, in those few months between Nov. 5 and the start of the new Congress will be a time of heavy courting of Holy Joe. But I think he stays with the D's, which will make the bloggers mad, but that's how the Senate works.

So, really, the 6 + 2 minimum D gain should mean that the D's will have a minimum of 59 votes in the next Congress. That's huge.

At that point, because this is also how the Senate works, they should be able to entice an R or three to vote with them on cloture motions. Whipping votes in Senate requires more carrot than stick, and the R's have few carrots and their sticks are more like balsa twigs. If you're Arlen Specter or Mel Martinez, facing reelection in '10, what incentive do you have to back the R leadership if that makes you more vulnerable to a D challenger? If you're Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins and you could coast to reelection on any or no ticket, what prevents you from voting however you please?

Harry Reid might lose a few cloture votes in the next Congress. But he's going to win many, many more. The Senate will be a very different place next year than it has been for a very long while.

Posted by: novamatt | October 17, 2008 9:07 AM | Report abuse

While I want the Democrats to win I don't see the magic 60 or 61 votes. You always automatically include the independents in that number. Considering Joe Libberman's actions in general and particularly during this election cycle I don't see him as a reliable vote on the democratic side. In fact I think he could become a real pain in the neck for the Democrtas and side witht eh republicans on a number of issues, including caucusing.

Posted by: roboquinno | October 17, 2008 8:51 AM | Report abuse

Barkley was a senator for about 10 min after Wellstone died and Ventura put him in the Senate. I believe he caucused with the Dems but that might have been just out of respect for Wellstone since there was no actual work to do.

Posted by: ian5 | October 17, 2008 8:45 AM | Report abuse

Dean Barkley is the Minnesota Independence Party candidate for US Senate:

http://www.senatorbarkley.com/home.html

He was appointed by Gov. Jesse Ventura to serve the remainder of Paul Wellstone's term in the Senate, when Wellstone was killed in a plane crash October 25, 2002.

Barkley was an Independence Party leader and staff member for Ventura.

Here's more

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dean_Barkley

Part of the story of the Minnesota Senate race has been the speculation about whether Barkley would take more votes from Franken than from Coleman. Some Minnesota Dems did not like Franken's endorsement.

However, the jokes on Coleman. Recent polling indicates Barkley is taking more votes from the Republican than from Franken.

Posted by: paul_hardt | October 17, 2008 8:40 AM | Report abuse

Speaking of Stevens and his trial, many of you will be glad you read

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/16/AR2008101603616.html?hpid=topnews

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 17, 2008 8:10 AM | Report abuse

Who is Dean Barkley, and which party would he caucus with if he wins?

Posted by: harlemboy | October 17, 2008 8:04 AM | Report abuse

I know there is some corporate pressure for writers at the the WP to be ardent cheerleaders for the corporation's party of choice, but to cheer for a 60 seat edge and control of all three houses is an incredibly irresponsible postion. Just look at the legendary and lasting damage done by either party when this condition has occured. To ignore this fact and cheer for its occurance is to place the spirit of party ahead of the people, and to show loyalty to party over the need of the people to have a balanced and deliberate government.

Posted by: SayWhat4 | October 17, 2008 8:03 AM | Report abuse

Stevens may be "convinced" without being convicted, Chris.

Posted by: mark_in_austin | October 17, 2008 7:50 AM | Report abuse

There will be more Democrats in Congress to support a President Obama. There may also be some surprises along the way as the economy continues to worsen and voters look for ways to vent their anger...

Posted by: RickJ | October 17, 2008 7:30 AM | Report abuse

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