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Wag the Blog: What Does 2009 Mean for 2010?

Virginia guberntorial candidate Bob McDonnell, left, and New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie. Photos by Bill O'Leary of the Washington Post and Lauren Victoria Burke of the Associated Press

With just over 100 days left before voters in New Jersey and Virginia head to the polls to pick their governors, Republicans have a legitimate chance of picking up both seats.

In New Jersey, former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie (R) has held a wide lead over Gov. Jon Corzine (D), and even many Democratic strategists acknowledge privately that the incumbent has a tough path to a second term.

In Virginia, meanwhile, polling shows former Attorney General Bob McDonnell (R) leading state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) by a small but steady margin of three points.

Given those numbers, it's worth exploring what -- if anything -- two Republican victories in the off-year governor's race would tell us about the political environment heading into the 2010 midterm elections,.

Past political history provides mixed results about the predictive abilities of off-year contests.

In 1993, Republicans won the governorships in New Jersey and Virginia -- victories that were widely seen (in retrospect) as a sign of the building GOP wave that led to the party's takeover of Congress the following year.

In 2007, however, Republican won two of the three gubernatorial seats -- in Louisiana and Mississippi -- up that year, wins that did little to predict the Democratic landslide that was to come in 2008.

So, if Republicans win both governor's races this November does it mean: a) the American people are sending a message to the Obama Administration and Democrats in Congress that they are not happy with the government's direction b) on-the-ground conditions in each state -- Virginia's Republican underpinnings, Corzine's ties to the financial sector -- led to unique circumstances that say little about the national environment c) somewhere in between options a and b.

That is the wag the blog question we put to Fixistas today. Offer your thought on what a Republican sweep in New Jersey and Virginia would mean and, as importantly, why you think that way, in the comments section below.

The most insightful comments will be featured in their own post over the weekend.

By Chris Cillizza  |  July 23, 2009; 2:47 PM ET
Categories:  Wag The Blog  
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There were almost 60 MILLION "traitors" in the last election?

Posted by: JakeD | July 25, 2009 3:49 PM | Report abuse

Let's see. GOP governors elected in 1993 in VA and NJ. That at least possibly foretold the Congressional beating the Dems would take the next year. But Clinton won reelection in 1996.

In 2001, Dem governors won in both states, in spite of just a few mths after 9/11 when most Americans still trusted the Bush Admin. And then Bush won re-election in 2004. So not really sure what these elections mean, other than to give the media something to cover in November of an off election year.

Posted by: jetrain | July 24, 2009 4:12 PM | Report abuse

I think this should have said: "With most patriotic Americans busy on summer vacation, polls of old crabby white guys with landlines show a spike in people answer pollsters saying they would vote Republican, and asking where is the best place to buy tin foil hats."

That would sum it up.

Only traitors vote Republican.

Posted by: WillSeattle | July 24, 2009 3:12 PM | Report abuse

If the Republicans win both Governorships in NJ & VA it will demonstrate not only a opportunity for a GOP comeback but the hypocrisy of Democrat policy contrasted to election rhetoric of 2008.

The change will happen but more because of the shift in the opinion of the electoral center(Independents) after seeing that the Democrats answer to everything is to declare an emergency and spend more taxpayer $$$$ at every policy desire of the last 8 years. They are willing to look at the GOP because they are finally advocating fiscally prudent policies that contrast w/ the Dem's overspending and align w/ the core principals that the GOP violated when they were in the majority.

If the GOP & Blue Dog Democrats hold their ground in DC on spending then the GOP has a very real possibility of winning back the majority.

Posted by: King2641 | July 24, 2009 12:02 PM | Report abuse

no jobs no votes...
every piece of dem legislation throws people out of work...
that better change or the dems have got to go...

Posted by: DwightCollins | July 24, 2009 11:35 AM | Report abuse

well in 2009...
the dems will set up investigations to indict Republicans in 2010...
allocated stimuli money to be spent in 2010 right before the election...
dems will posture themselves to be reelected in 2010...
in 2010...
trials will begin before the election...
voter fraud will occur...
voters will be bought...

Posted by: DwightCollins | July 24, 2009 11:32 AM | Report abuse

After yesterday, Corzine is done unless something EXTREMELY radical happens in NJ in the next 2-3 months. The issues in Jersey go much deeper than Corzine (or either party), but he is going to get the brunt of it.

Virginia on the the other hand hasn't really entered into prime campaign season yet. You really can't read into the numbers until Oct. Given VA typical GOP bend over the last 40 years, the Dems win the last few years as been due to GOP incompentance as much as good Dem candidates.

Posted by: rhinohide | July 24, 2009 9:49 AM | Report abuse

If the Republicans take both New Jersey and Virginia, especially Virginia, it will help to sow the seeds of doubt about the Democrats and whether they have the correct balm to ease the unemployment problem, solve the health care conundrum and take a dent out of the deficit. The Republicans desperately need these two governorships to help collapse the Democratic wave that is already beginning to tremble.

Posted by: jrosco3 | July 24, 2009 3:51 AM | Report abuse

Ah, chrisfox, a common misunderstanding. Clearly you are unaware despite your long residence that for many natives, walking in front of moving cars, galloping horses, stampedes of cattle, etc, is a perfectly normal way to start your day. Very invigorating, wakes you right up. Coffee and tea are a poor second-best in comparison.

Alas, to each his own. My experience has been that each and every place has a full and ample share of its own unique sort of really stupid people, though. It's a ubiquitous if varied part of the fauna everywhere, and no state is exceptional in this. Except DC, which has to suffer the unique indignity of having each state specially select and transfer some of its very dumbest citizens thither on a regular basis. It's like an idiot zoo over there. It brings in a lot of tourists, though.

Posted by: nodebris | July 24, 2009 1:52 AM | Report abuse

Virginia isn't poor by a long shot, but there are a lot of really dumb people there. I remember guys who would cross the street and walk right in front of a car. You see a lot of people there with permanently sleepy eyes, barely conscious.

I lived there for many years, can't really say I miss it.

Posted by: chrisfox8 | July 24, 2009 12:58 AM | Report abuse

TheBabeNemo, I'm not sure if you jest or really aren't very familiar with Virginia, but you offered these two jewels:

"isn't virginia one of the states that endorse same sex marriage?"

Yikes! Y'all ain't from 'round these parts, are you? So far, "Virginia is [Strictly] For [Heterosexual] Lovers [Only]."

"virginia is inherently one of the poorest states in the union"

Err . . . no. We have the 10th lowest poverty rate of all states and are rated 9th in average household income. We have some counties that are pretty hard hit, but they are very much in the minority. We still have a middle class here.

"Inherently?" Odd choice of words. I think you watched too many "Waltons" episodes growing up or something, or you're confusing us with our Western neighbor. Virginia's always been the wealthiest state in the South. There's a bit more going on here than the few coal mining counties on our western border.

Watch out, or you'll force me to launch into a panegyric detailing the near infinite glories of the Old Dominion. Virginians quite rightly have a good bit of pride about this commonwealth.

Posted by: nodebris | July 24, 2009 12:01 AM | Report abuse

Politics is local, and the two have quite different implications.

In NJ, if Corzine wins it means that the NE is still a place where blue automatically defeats red despite the respective merits of the two candidates. If Christie wins then it means the GOP can still hope that the right candidate can win in the North East.

In Virginia, a Deeds win would show that Virginia is rapidly turning blue - solidifying the gains of Warner, Keane, Webb & Obama. A GOP win would show that VA is purple, and has a strong trend of supporting whoever isn't in the White House (a trend dating back to 1977)

Posted by: JayPen | July 23, 2009 8:28 PM | Report abuse

"VA is completely purple, so really, a slight breeze pushing to the left or right isn't too telling. And NJ politics ranks up there with Illinois for being entirely local and looney. Posted by: molsonmich"

Since they just arrested about every fifth Jerseyite on corruption charges, NJ can probably look down their noses and call IllIni just a bunch of two bit grifters. In Joisey they KNOW what THEY are doing.

Posted by: ceflynline | July 23, 2009 7:57 PM | Report abuse

Isn't Christie the candidate who has apparently classified his fical policy so nobody can question him on how he is going to pay for the ordinary business of running New Jersey? He and his Lt Governor candidate partner seem to be pointing fingers, at each other, saying, "If you want to know what my Budget plan is, ask him."

SOMEWHERE in these campaigns the words Budget, and Taxes, have to come up and be discussed. The fact that in NJ the Republicans seem to think those words have fallen out of the English language is a telling thing. Corzine ought to end every appearance with a challenge to Christie to say just what his budgeting principles will be.

For Christie, the answer is, open mouth, slit throat.

Meaning at 100 days out? The Repubs have not yet begun to talk.

Would YOU vote for a Gubenatorial candidate who flatly refuses to tell you how he expects to pay State Salaries?

OK, I forgot. California DID elect the Arnold, and has all the fiscal reason in the world to regret it.

Posted by: ceflynline | July 23, 2009 7:53 PM | Report abuse

i lived through 79-82 housing debacle too.
Worked 2 part time jobs to get through it.

i am aware of what leading indicators are in relation to quantifying the data.

and i believe that most folks know that i, indeed, do NOT wish for President Obama to fail (as he will not).

the data can INDICATE anything it wants at this point in time, but to become an absolute, it must acknowledge the changes/results yet to be produced, while the equation (for the indicator) is being implemented.

The issue itself, (and numbers related to the issue), is too fluid in the numbers to produce predictions.

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | July 23, 2009 6:15 PM | Report abuse

TO: TheBabeNemo

Oh, they're killing them (us?). "Slow-kill." Google it, along with "directed energy weapon."

Yep, this is genocide. Or should we say, "politicide," since the "targets" seem to be chosen for ideological reasons.

They think they can get away with it, because microwaves are silent. But people are wising up, even if you don't read it in the MSM.

I only hope POTUS wises up. I didn't like the look of that vertical scalp streak behind his left ear the last time he was videoed in the Rose Garden...

Rahm should know about this stuff, given his connections. Do you think they are taking counter-measures?

Not a good time to be one of the Dr. Strangeloves. Or so one can hope.

Reminds me of one of my oldies but goodies:

Posted by: scrivener50 | July 23, 2009 6:06 PM | Report abuse

mining country

and there is no middle class, in any state, any longer.

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | July 23, 2009 6:03 PM | Report abuse

To Babe:

I am a CPA who actually has a minor in economics. I lived through the 1982-3 recession. You need to figure out about leading indicators (not lagging like employment). Read the link.... the economy will be just fine for 2010 because the stimulus is working. In fact in a very ironic way the biggest thing it did was psychological.... it was big and bold and told people the government was engaged (as opposed to Bush). Actually it needed to be two to three times as big to make up for what was not being spent by consumers (see what Paul Krugman has to say). Read the link and weep! As much as you want Obama to fail he is getting the job done.

I know the economy will be recovering by this time next year because that is what the data is saying.

Posted by: bradcpa | July 23, 2009 6:02 PM | Report abuse

Madame Babe Nemo - Is VA poor like AZ or like MS or like CA? What do you mean by "inherently one of the poorest"? That there is no middle class? That it is bankrupt? Or that they are all subsistence farmers?

Fairfax County appears to be "inherently wealthy" to me, an unworthy observer.

Posted by: MoreAndBetterPolls | July 23, 2009 5:51 PM | Report abuse

if they don't matter, why not just kill them. dont' waste the money on torture.

have you ever heard of "subliminal television".....?

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | July 23, 2009 5:40 PM | Report abuse

A Republican win in NJ is nothing more or less than a sign of the difficulties that will face incumbent candidates of both parties in 2010.

Virginia is a different story. Deeds' reliance on former Obama campaign strategists will put the techniques of the 2008 campaign (especially in the area of new media, as evidenced by Deeds' plugging of his text message system on campaign apparel) to the test with a different candidate. This campaign will be the one to watch in 2009 and if postulation based on election results does occur -- and we all know that no matter what happens, it will -- this will be the race on which all predictions should hinge.

Posted by: dixielandpunker | July 23, 2009 5:40 PM | Report abuse


did we fight for our freedom more under democratic administrations
or republican administrations?

true or false:
to "fight for our freedom", we must engage in battle (for any alleged issue).

do we engage more under democratic administrations or republican administrations.

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | July 23, 2009 5:37 PM | Report abuse

TO: TheBabeNemo

Torture only works on those who don't really matter.

When do you think the mainstream media will realize that the electromagnetic spectrum has been weaponized and that the global telecommunications system now can be deployed for torture on demand?

Or maybe a bit of closer proximity organ-frying with a hand-held microwave/laser "directed energy weapon"?

This is as big a story as the A-bomb or the invention of gunpowder... and those who know about it (Woodward?) won't (or can't?) do it...

Now why is that?

Posted by: scrivener50 | July 23, 2009 5:37 PM | Report abuse

Why do the wingnuts think they have some sort of corner on freedom?

Posted by: chrisfox8 | July 23, 2009 5:26 PM | Report abuse

nobody likes the whites....(smiles)

you forgot
maximum effective persuasion.

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | July 23, 2009 5:15 PM | Report abuse

..."My key point is the incidental indicators are showing the economy is still in recession but heading for a recovery........"
and you are living on what planet?

the individual debt of each family will be so astronomical---that we cannot even predict (now), the consequences or ramifications. and it doesn't look as if the banks are helping.

to predict the future and say when it will be "on the road to recovery" (in so and so month/year) is quite illogical, because the recovery process itself will take us into ground we have never covered before.

virginiaforfreedom: i'll bite.
what is "keeping our Federal and State governments “in their proper places” ?"

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | July 23, 2009 5:12 PM | Report abuse

To: TheBabeNemo @ 4:40 p.m.

Torture on demand? And all they need to know is your unique set of personal "frequencies" to induce weakness or fatigue or sleepnessness, or extreme tiredness? Just like at Gitmo?

Or maybe in important places right in the District?

You and I know this is no joke. And now you and the rest of your merry band of whatevers have the "headroom" to put on the white jerseys.

Great way to mitigate the sins of the past, dontcha think?


Posted by: scrivener50 | July 23, 2009 5:02 PM | Report abuse


Last Fall, Virginia’s voters helped to create a one-party national government by electing the charismatic Barack Obama as President and by ensuring a Democratic Party majority in the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives.

Thankfully, because of the brilliance of Virginian James Madison and our other Founding Founders, we can soon begin to compensate for that mistake.

As Madison explained in Federalist Paper No. 51, our Founders gave us the power to compensate for such mistakes when they created a system of checks and balances “necessary to control the abuses of government.” By dividing the people’s power “between two separate governments” (Federal and State) and by contriving in each government a partitioned “interior structure” (Executive, legislative, and Judicial), they gave us the “means of keeping each other in their proper places.”

Compensating completely for the mistake made last Fall and keeping our Federal and State governments “in their proper places” will take three full years and three election cycles. However, we in Virginia can begin the process this coming November by voting for Republican Bob McDonnell for Governor, for Bill Bolling as Lieutenant Governor, and for other Republicans such as House of Delegates candidates Tag Greason, Tom Rust, Joe May, and Bob Marshall to serve in our state’s legislative branch.

Posted by: VirginianforFreedom | July 23, 2009 4:54 PM | Report abuse

Oppo research has just uncovered this embarrassing video of Chris Christie:

I think it's Curtains for Christie!

Posted by: Bondosan | July 23, 2009 4:51 PM | Report abuse

IT IS THE ECONOMY STUPID! 2010 will be determined by the economy. Although employment is not looking that great now is most likely will be recovering by November 2010. The Republicans who voted against, rooted against and prematurely said the stimulus was not working will be covered in egg. Do not believe me .... look at the Dow or read this article by Economic Cycle Research Institute

I hope all the right-wingers refuse to believe this report because this institute must be bias. This outfit gets paid a fee by their clients for getting it right so they live or die by getting it right.

My key point is the incidental indicators are showing the economy is still in recession but heading for a recovery. The stimulus will get the credit and I look to see a lot of tape of Republicans trashing the stimulus next year in Democratic TV spots.

Posted by: bradcpa | July 23, 2009 4:42 PM | Report abuse

thanks scrivener....i was waiting for your memo.

he was following orders from Baby Bush under the National Surveillance Agency, which put a satellite in your kitchen.

and if you are of the super rich, you can buy that satellite time for 15 minute increments and have loads of fun!

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | July 23, 2009 4:40 PM | Report abuse

What does it mean? Absolutely nothing...

Posted by: parkerfl1 | July 23, 2009 4:40 PM | Report abuse

A convincing argument why Chris Christie should NOT be elected...


As U.S. attorney, Chris Christie approved the covert tracking via cellphones of so-called "targeted" citizens" without first obtaining a court warrant, according to the New Jersey office of the American Civil Liberties Union.

Covert GPS tracking, using cellphones and covertly implanted GPS beacons secreted in or on the vehicles of so-called "targets," is the very backbone of the Bush-Cheney- spawned extrajudicial targeting and punishment "torture matrix."

Unjustly targeted persons charge that this police state apparatus is destroying lives and livelihoods in an unconstitutional campaign conducted by vigilante "community stalkers" -- many of whom are affiliated with federal volunteer organizations involved in community policing and "anti-terrorism" programs.

Victims also allege that the "harassment protocol" includes electromagnetic torture via classified microwave radiation "directed energy weapons" that have been proliferated to law enforcement under programs administered by various federal agencies, including the Department of Justice.

The mainstream media has yet to quiz the Obama administration on the subject of directed energy weapons.

Candidate Christie and the federal officials who have enabled the warrantless surveillance and tracking of American citizens should be held to account for a wholesale violation of constitutional rights.

For more on this unconstitutional program that makes a mockery of the rule of law at the grassroots:

OR (if link is corrupted / disabed): RE: "GESTAPO USA" (see "stream" or "stories" list)

Posted by: scrivener50 | July 23, 2009 4:31 PM | Report abuse

virginia may affect the majority in the senate but then again, it may not.

virginia is inherently one of the poorest states in the union so state conditions are very important.

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | July 23, 2009 4:28 PM | Report abuse

It's possible that the results of these two elections will give us some insight into 2010. There are many reasons to think these elections have no bearing on the national mood (as several people have already pointed out), but the results might help predict 2010.

But we don't have the results yet. What we have are a few inconclusive polls, with more than 3 months left before the election. There's no point in speculating what the election results could mean until we know what the results are. It's just a way to fill up time until some actual news arises.

Posted by: Blarg | July 23, 2009 4:20 PM | Report abuse

I believe a Republican sweep in 2009 would be a major morale booster for Republicans. Virginia will give Republican's optimism that the political tide is turning to the Republicans. New Jersey proves that even in the most hostile places to Republicans, a great candidate can win under the right conditions. In 2010, that gives hope to Delaware, New York, Illinois, Connecticut & California. So a Republican sweep shows that the political winds are now blowing at Republicans backs & they can win in traditionally unfriendly places with the right candidate.

Posted by: reason5 | July 23, 2009 4:18 PM | Report abuse

king is in his undisclosed secure location and can't see.

do you believe, king, that the circular flow of "republican rule" is going to return? how is that going to take place?
didn't ya hear? conservatism is dead in the water. sleeps with the fishes.

Coeur d'Alene City Council???--a republican.

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | July 23, 2009 4:13 PM | Report abuse

Chris, I suspect in regard to the New Jersey race, we should be looking upon it as nothing more than a referendum on Governor Corzine. Chris Christie is hardly a stellar candidate, but he's moderate enough to appeal to the NJ centrists and Independents who are now scared to death of the concept of another Corzine term. There's a reason President Obama stumped for Corzine in July - so he won't have to stump for a surefire loser any closer to election day.

In terms of Virginia, however, I do think it's a bit more a referendum on the President's work, as opposed to specific state conditions or even Bob McDonnell's tenure as Attorney General. McDonnell is a much more conservative guy than Christie, but the Creigh Deeds campaign, at least so far, doesn't appear to have succeeded in covincing VA moderates of that. McDonnell is indeed leading, and it's assumedly going to be a dead heat come November.

I'd put my money on a 2-for-2 win for the Republicans and Michael Steele (even though Steele's abysmal work really could never be attributed to such wins), and with folks like Chris Dodd, David Paterson, and Arlen Specter, among others, posting very weak numbers at the moment, 2010 could also prove to be one helluva year for the GOP.

Posted by: andyroo312 | July 23, 2009 4:06 PM | Report abuse

There is quite a bit of truth in the adage, "all politics are local," particularly how it applies to elections for governor.

How else do you explain, for example:

- Democratic governors in Kansas and Oklahoma, two states that vote for Republicans in national elections.

- Republican governors in Vermont and Connecticut, two states that vote strongly Democratic in national elections.

New Jersey flirts with moderate Republicans every once in a while (see: Whitman, Christie) as an alternative to crooked government as usual, but the state is essentially Democratic. NJ tends to go to whoever it looks like is ripping them off the least. At the moment, Corzine has a problem with that.

Virginia has been moving closer to Democratic lately, but still has some deep Republican roots. After two consecutive Democrats, Virginia voters may just want a change of party.

I think NJ is the more likely of the two to flip, though, providing Deeds can get his message out to the Virginia electorate the way he did to Democratic primary voters.

Posted by: Gallenod | July 23, 2009 4:02 PM | Report abuse

The race in NJ has no reflection on the national environment. Corzine barely won his last election and he is just not done a very good job as governor. That doesn't include the fact that he made his money as a Wall Street executive.

VA on the other hand will be more of a bellwether of what the rest of the nation is feeling. That being said McDonnell had no primary race, where as Deeds had a long hard fight that got slightly nasty. With that in mind McDonell who is known statewide as AG is polling steady at 45%. On the other hand Deeds has nowhere to go but up and I think that with a good amount of money from the national D's then he can win.

Either way though, the effect of these two races on 2010 will be minimal. 2010 is going to be determined by the state of the economy.

Posted by: AndyR3 | July 23, 2009 4:01 PM | Report abuse

It means little, if nothing. Governors have no direct impact on presidential policies. If it were a Senate race, maybe, but not governor. Virginia elected (now-Senator) Mark Warner in the first year of W. Bush's term and that wasn't seen as a reply to Bush's policies. Races are won by the politics and personalities of the candidates, not national climate.

Posted by: thecorinthian | July 23, 2009 4:00 PM | Report abuse

You can do your part by moving to san fran.


You kidding? Zouk probably can't even leave on weekends. He's in a nuthouse.

Posted by: chrisfox8 | July 23, 2009 3:55 PM | Report abuse

Someday, somewhere, a Republican is going to win something (maybe a seat on the Coeur d'Alene City Council?).

When that happens, you can be certain that Zouky is going to hail it as the beginning of the great Republican comeback.


And so will Mr. Cillizza

Posted by: chrisfox8 | July 23, 2009 3:52 PM | Report abuse

"Help us send Pelosi to the place she belongs - the punchline of a bad joke. worst speaker ever."

You can do your part by moving to san fran.

Posted by: bsimon1 | July 23, 2009 3:46 PM | Report abuse

Someday, somewhere, a Republican is going to win something (maybe a seat on the Coeur d'Alene City Council?).

When that happens, you can be certain that Zouky is going to hail it as the beginning of the great Republican comeback.

Regarding New Jersey and Virginia, the simple truth is that it's tough to be a governor during an economic downturn as severe as this one has been. There are few good options as most states require balanced budgets, so you're stuck with increases in taxes and fees and/or cutting services (usually both), which makes no one happy.

I predict that Virginia will go with Deeds and that New Jersey will go with Christie, but really, anything is possible.

Posted by: Bondosan | July 23, 2009 3:40 PM | Report abuse


Posted by: MoreAndBetterPolls | July 23, 2009 3:38 PM | Report abuse

Of course since the party of Obimbo is falling behind further every day as voters send the STOP message, it is easily predicted that Libs will find no significance in the diving poll numbers of Dems across the nation.

On the other hand, Dems who squeeked in on the coattails of the charlatan are going to be very nervous. you see they inhabit the real world. their majority is endangered already. Help us send Pelosi to the place she belongs - the punchline of a bad joke. worst speaker ever.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | July 23, 2009 3:34 PM | Report abuse

i, too, find it amazing that a majority of polls or tracking that we do of anything,
is always based in the east....

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | July 23, 2009 3:31 PM | Report abuse

isn't virginia one of the states that endorse same sex marriage?
there are five or something....

that issue can make or break the race

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | July 23, 2009 3:28 PM | Report abuse

don' mean shee-it, as they say in Virginia

Posted by: chrisfox8 | July 23, 2009 3:27 PM | Report abuse

d) trying to divine national implications from two east coast Gov races underscores how out of touch inside the beltway types are with anything west of the Appalachians.


e) its a slow political news time halfway between the prior presidential election & upcoming midterms, and pundits are desperate for material on which they can base their hot air.

Posted by: bsimon1 | July 23, 2009 3:26 PM | Report abuse

The VA race might be slightly indicative of a national trend, but it seems to be more about the merits of a popular Republican candidate and a conservative Democrat who ran third in the primary until the last week of the race. The NJ race is, more than anything else, a referendum on Corzine, whose chances are rather low. With more generic candidates, these races might be a bellweather. This year, however, its more about the candidates than the parties.

Posted by: WW160 | July 23, 2009 3:14 PM | Report abuse

now now chris...
i just saw you from my porch and i have to shoot looked furry.

do you really believe that governors or governors' races mean anything?

Posted by: TheBabeNemo | July 23, 2009 3:14 PM | Report abuse

Wellll. I think it is true that all politics is local, so these two elections may probably mean nothing as bellweathers.

VA is completely purple, so really, a slight breeze pushing to the left or right isn't too telling. And NJ politics ranks up there with Illinois for being entirely local and looney.

Posted by: molsonmich | July 23, 2009 3:11 PM | Report abuse

It means nothing. All politics is local. It has no national implications. If the original question is valid, what happens if the Democrats win in both races? "Corzine has the largest come back in recent gubernatorial political history" "Deeds get revenge for 05 AG race, takes Governorship for third Dem term."

Posted by: sjxylib | July 23, 2009 3:03 PM | Report abuse

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