Network News

X My Profile
View More Activity
About this Blog   |   On Twitter   |   Follow us on Facebook   |   RSS Feeds RSS Feed

Byrne gets serious

Amy Gardner

Leslie L. Byrne declared herself the frontrunner today in the battle for the Democratic nomination in the 11th Congressional District -- but others have something else to say about her numbers.

Byrne released polling numbers today that show her with a 10-point lead over potential primary opponent Gerald E. Connolly, the chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors who recently formed an exploratory committee to consider running for Congress.


Byrne's survey of 400 likely Democratic primary voters, conducted by Global Strategy Group, placed the former congresswoman and state senator ahead 39 to 29 over Connolly. It gave Doug Denneny, the other declared candidate, 8 percent of the vote. And it put undecideds at 25 percent.

Further, the poll placed Byrne's name recognition at a remarkable 94 percent, slightly higher than Connolly's, which the poll put at 92 percent. Byrne's pollsters said the candidate was particularly strong among women, older voters and strong partisans, which they concluded are all particularly likely voters in the Democratic primary.

"Leslie Byrne begins the race for the Democratic congressional nomination with an advantage in vote support," the pollster wrote in a memo distributed to the media today. "Moving forward, Byrne is well-positioned to win the nomination and face the Republican challenger in November."

Here's another memo, this one distributed via telephone by folks a bit less keen on the Byrne machine: Not so fast, sister. Connolly said he wouldn't say much about Byrne's numbers because he doesn't want to "be dragged in as a candidate because I'm not yet." But he did say: "We're confident the real numbers look quite different."

And someone close to the Connolly effort said he would be skeptical of the name recognition numbers -- not only Byrne's, but even Connolly's. This person said Connolly's name ID numbers are closer to 80 percent, calling into question the accuracy of the Byrne poll.

And then there's this question: In a general election matchup between Leslie Byrne and U.S. Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R), who wins? Interesting that Byrne's publicly released memo didn't provide the answer.

By Amy Gardner  |  January 16, 2008; 8:25 PM ET
Categories:  Amy Gardner  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: A Rough Road Ahead
Next: Petersen Throws Himself in Front of a Train

Comments

I think whoever did this poll is from the Judy Feder school of campaign management. NOVA democrats really must think voters and pundits are totally stupid. Usually campaigns supposedly release internal numbers out of desparation or to get attention. Remember that little poll last congressional cycle that had Feder in the margin of error and she lost by double digits? This is just a lame publicity attempt by the Byrne campaign and a push poll disguised as issue testing. Poll like this are normally done by losing campaigns or those desparate for attention. Nothing more.

Posted by: Anonymous | January 16, 2008 10:18 PM | Report abuse

Anon, the Judy Feder poll you are refering to was an independent poll done by a company polling every Congressional race. They were way off as the results and Judy's internals (which never showed her within 10) proved.

Posted by: Not Larry Sabato | January 17, 2008 6:38 AM | Report abuse

Amy -

This is an extremely atrocious piece of writing. You make poor assumptions and misstatements throughout. Maybe you should be reassigned to the Arts & Leisure Section

Posted by: Not Gretchen Bulova | January 17, 2008 8:26 AM | Report abuse

Why is it "Interesting that Byrne's publicly released memo didn't provide the answer?" This was a poll for the DEMOCRATIC primary, not for the general election. Huh?

Posted by: Raising Kaine | January 17, 2008 8:42 AM | Report abuse

Still doesn't 94% and 90% id seem rather high, especially considering that Prince William makes up 14-18% of the district?

Posted by: Anonymous | January 17, 2008 9:02 AM | Report abuse

One would hope that a former Congresswoman and statewide Lt. Gov nominee, and a second term Chairman of the Fairfax Board of Supervisors would have that high name recognition among DEMOCRATS. Assuming that is the target of this poll it not unreasonable to think it is true.

Although Byrne seems to be in a good position, there are 25% undecided with 5 months to go.

Posted by: Anonymous | January 17, 2008 9:37 AM | Report abuse

Just a horrible piece of journalism.

Posted by: Anonymous | January 17, 2008 10:03 AM | Report abuse

I disagree with everyone above. This is a fine piece of writing and that's a terrific point you made in the ultimate sentence.

Posted by: Hector | January 17, 2008 10:53 AM | Report abuse

39+29+8+25=101
Wow, they polled 101%. Is that high school education showing?

Then Deneny has the big momentum, maybe that is the story? Why doesn't Deneny & Conneley show their numbers, too?

The Byrne poll numbers look cooked with the PW county taken into account.

Amy, you are right to challenge the veracity of the poll. There is intellectual dishonesty and nastiness in the blogs that attack the person when credibility is rightfully challenged.

Posted by: Poll Does Not Make Sense | January 17, 2008 12:37 PM | Report abuse

I thought Amy Gardner's blog entry was very generous to Leslie Byrne. She reported most of the spin contained in Byrne's press release about the poll.

I also agree that the Connolly poll probably will show a much different picture. (Connolly, like Byrne, is an accomplished politician. Don't you think he has a poll, too?)

The difference is that Leslie Byrne is desperate to keep Gerry Connolly out of the race. A poll released this early means nothing, particularly when the methodology isn't spelled out.

Also, this primary race is not the end of the line. We do have to elect someone who can beat Tom Davis, if he runs.

Posted by: Just a NoVA Democrat | January 17, 2008 1:14 PM | Report abuse

How about recruiting Tom Davis or Mrs. Davis to run as a Democrat? It worked with Webb

Posted by: Not Leslie Byrne | January 17, 2008 1:22 PM | Report abuse

Raising Kaine has some thoughts on all this.

http://www.raisingkaine.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=12285

Posted by: Raising Kaine | January 17, 2008 2:19 PM | Report abuse

bad enough that raising kaine posts and publishes the nasty & libelous comments, but then he comes onto the Post blog to steal away readers to his blog-real crass act.

Posted by: RK nastiness shows | January 17, 2008 2:31 PM | Report abuse

Amy's first sentence says it all; "Leslie L. Byrne declared herself the frontrunner..."

Amy's right, 94% name recognition is remarkable. In fact, it's downright hokey. I don't even buy the 92% for Gerry Connolly.

Just more Leslie promoting Leslie; The Never Ending Story.

BTW - Where was Leslie on Election Night last November? Not at the Victory Celebration acknowledging all of the hard work and gains won by Democrats who were elected.

Where was Leslie the next day? Announcing her candidacy and in the process stepping on the stories about those winners.

Leslie should be put into the same category as perrenial candidate and non-winner, Levi Levy. Except she runs for higher offices and he's not pretentious.

No matter how you spell it, B Y R N E = L O S E R!

"And then there's this question: In a general election matchup between Leslie Byrne and U.S. Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R), who wins?" Davis, hands down.

Change the challenger to Connolly, and it's at least 50/50.

Posted by: Anonymous | January 17, 2008 2:38 PM | Report abuse

Maybe Amy's headline should read: Byrne? Get Serious!

Posted by: Anonymous | January 17, 2008 3:04 PM | Report abuse

I thought Leslie was with Chap Petersen the anti-choice, pro-gun candidate on election night?

Posted by: Where was Leslie? | January 17, 2008 3:26 PM | Report abuse

I thought Leslie was with Chap Petersen.

Nope, not a shade of Pink darkened the ballroom at the Hilton.

Posted by: Anonymous | January 17, 2008 3:43 PM | Report abuse

rk survives on spam, get over it

Posted by: Anonymous | January 17, 2008 4:47 PM | Report abuse

nothing wrong with libel, nothing wrong with spam

Posted by: Raising Kaine | January 17, 2008 4:49 PM | Report abuse

Please, too many people too full of themselves, and too many journalists covering politics who don't understand politics. If Amy fully understood what the poll's purpose was, she would not have included that cheap shot at Leslie at the end of the article.

I'm sorry, but what on-the-ground activists can see and feel in the 11th District is very different from your cozy little Post cubby. ANY well-known Democratic candidate in NoVA nominated against Tom Davis is going to be extremely competitive in 2008. I don't care how much lobbying money Tom tries to throw at the district, the results may well be the same as they were for his wife. 2006 was just a taste--Andy Hurst was a great guy and would make an excellent people's congressman, but he did not have the name ID, following, or money that a Byrne or Connolly will both bring to the race.

If only the Post staff had a clue about what's REALLY going on. Why don't they try attending local committee meetings to get a true read on the race and the energy and enthusiasm out here.

Clueless. My goodness, maybe the Post will hire Alicia Silverstone?

Posted by: Doug in Mount Vernon | January 17, 2008 5:04 PM | Report abuse

the democrats should draft Mrs. Davis.

Posted by: Anonymous | January 18, 2008 9:57 AM | Report abuse

I guess Doug in Mt. Vernon isn't Doug Denneny.

Mt. Vernon, isn't that where Leslie started her sub-rosa effort to direct Fairfax Democrats from behind the scenes?

Posted by: Anonymous | January 18, 2008 11:53 AM | Report abuse

This reporter seems unable, or perhaps unwilling, to digest the facts she reports. The poll was done among likely Democratic primary voters. These names are taken from the rolls of those who have previously voted in Democratic primaries.

Primary voters in NoVA are a small and very politically aware group. They are distinguished from the "average citizen" by the fact that they vote! They are the very people whose opinions matter in a primary race. It is quite believable that most in such a politically aware group would know Leslie Byrne, a candidate who has run for local, state and federal office over the years.

As for who is leading in the polls at the moment, how do we know anyway? The "science" of polling is doing nothing to distinguish itself these days.

The disservice of the article is that there is no mention of the issues in the race nor of how any of the candidates might stand on them. This kind of piece only feeds the sensationalist frenzy that deprives the public of real dialogue on the issues.

Whose ego is being served here, anyway?

Posted by: Marge Epstein | January 18, 2008 3:38 PM | Report abuse

Hey, Marge! Amy was reporting on what Leslie put out into the public arena.

Every place I've ever lived, that's normally considered news.

Posted by: Anonymous | January 18, 2008 7:56 PM | Report abuse

Marge your honesty is refreshing, but there was no disservice in Amy's article.

Leslie Byrne tried to grab headlines with limited release of self serving poll data that did not stand up to some basic scrutiny.

Beware of conventional wisdom of what primary voters may know about candidates. Other posters have stated, it is a science and an art.

The Denny numbers are a huge red flag that the Byrne poll was seriously flawed and/or the results were seriously misrepresented.

Byrne backers may not like the questions Amy raised about the Byrne poll, but the problem is not with the Post reporter, the problems are with the partial released numbers. One can reasonably suspect there is a problem with the candidate's credibility and veracity. All Amy did was ask more questions.

Note how Leslie's blog links to another blog that makes personal attacks on the reporter. That, Marge, is a disservice to free press and the people.

Posted by: Good for you, Marge | January 18, 2008 10:55 PM | Report abuse

when did polls become news?

Posted by: Anonymous | January 19, 2008 3:07 PM | Report abuse

Around 1970.

Posted by: Anonymous | January 19, 2008 4:34 PM | Report abuse

Leslie needs to get control of her minions on Raising Kaine and Not Larry Sabato. This 3rd party (geek)hit squad is comical.

Hasn't the POTUS race taught us we can't predict undecided or what new / younger voters will do? Haven't people already had a lot of time to make up their minds about Leslie and Gerry?

The big surprise her is that even though Leslie paid for the poll and Gerry just won election is that Denneny registered, and that there are 25% undecided.

Another way to read this "poll" with a MOE of 5% would be=

Leslie- 39-5= 34%
Gerry- 29-5= 24%
Denneny-8+25+5= 38%

It's hard to imagine people who know anything about the party or NOVA politics wasting their time / money / vote on Leslie or Gerry again. Besides losing the LG, back in 2003 she was about to primary Moran for the 8th district, in she 1996 ran and lost for Senate and in the process called Mark Warner a 'rat,' 'republican light' and then sued him for intimidating minority voters all after getting crushed by Davis as an incumbent.

PLus both Leslie and Gerry share the blame for the transportation mess in NOVA. Gerry is in bed with the Big Dig developers and when Leslie was in Congress she couldn't get a request for Metro funding out of committee!

Amy is absolutely right that the big question, and what any true Democrat / Journalist should be concerned about is - who can win the general election?

Posted by: Robert | January 22, 2008 1:45 AM | Report abuse

kzexomfbw jphvamgon agdjeu qzxwcdsgb pqhej igfm rbum

Posted by: odcvhrleq exauow | January 29, 2008 4:22 AM | Report abuse

eytgs xrmhw hztbidcav oqihvc wrzhgpf goqrak hdpeviqc http://www.oxfw.hgmtrycv.com

Posted by: flzhg yfidwzh | January 29, 2008 4:24 AM | Report abuse

Useful site. Thank you!!!
http://ddwatches.freeunmeteredhost.com/TAGHeuer9 TAG Heuer

Posted by: TAG Heuer | February 2, 2008 12:22 PM | Report abuse

Useful site. Thank you!!
http://ddwatches.freeunmeteredhost.com/seikowatches seiko watches

Posted by: seiko watches | February 2, 2008 4:43 PM | Report abuse

Useful site. Thanks!!!
http://ddwatches.freeunmeteredhost.com/seikowatches seiko watches

Posted by: seiko watches | February 2, 2008 4:51 PM | Report abuse

Useful site. Thanks.
http://ttwatches.freepimphost.com/timex timex watches

Posted by: timex watches | February 3, 2008 10:32 AM | Report abuse

Useful site. Thanks.
http://ttwatches.freepimphost.com/timex timex watches

Posted by: timex watches | February 3, 2008 10:32 AM | Report abuse

Useful site. Thanks.
http://edubiz.freeweb7.com/EduD education diploma

Posted by: education diploma | February 5, 2008 6:55 AM | Report abuse

Useful site. Thank you!
http://edubiz.freeweb7.com/VocS vocational schools

Posted by: vocational schools | February 5, 2008 5:45 PM | Report abuse

Useful site. Thank you!!!
http://edubiz.freeweb7.com/OnEduC online education course

Posted by: online education course | February 6, 2008 1:28 AM | Report abuse

Useful site. Thank you!!!
http://edubiz.freeweb7.com/OnEduC online education course

Posted by: online education course | February 6, 2008 1:28 AM | Report abuse

Useful site. Thank you.
http://BlogPrEdu.lookera.net program education

Posted by: program education | February 6, 2008 10:14 PM | Report abuse

Useful site. Thank you!
http://BlogOnEduCo.lookera.net online education course

Posted by: online education course | February 7, 2008 3:02 AM | Report abuse

lpju fiju nypvzg uqkj tyfn udywncqr uyebd

Posted by: ujhikfrzl cahd | February 17, 2008 1:19 AM | Report abuse

Posted by: zoloft | May 11, 2008 7:08 AM | Report abuse

jimua bfuti tkjo awtkven
http://zoloftt.ipbfree.com zoloft oral
http://zoloftt.rapidboards.com effects of zoloft

Posted by: zoloft withdrawal symptoms | May 11, 2008 1:16 PM | Report abuse

wpxfec jtexfrb gvemhu jsrpie
http://zoloftseff.ad3.ru/ zoloft side effects
http://www.forumup.co.nz/?mforum=genericzoloft generic zoloft

Posted by: generic zoloft | May 11, 2008 1:50 PM | Report abuse

lsopta hbks wyvxbch
http://zoloftseff.ad3.ru/ side effects of zoloft
http://www.forumup.co.nz/?mforum=genericzoloft side effects generic zoloft

Posted by: zoloft and side effects | May 11, 2008 2:30 PM | Report abuse

lsopta hbks wyvxbch
http://zoloftseff.ad3.ru/ side effects of zoloft
http://www.forumup.co.nz/?mforum=genericzoloft side effects generic zoloft

Posted by: zoloft and side effects | May 11, 2008 2:30 PM | Report abuse

zunx gdbvjxs aogx
http://zoloftseff.ad3.ru/ zoloft side effects
http://www.forumup.co.nz/?mforum=genericzoloft buy cheap generic zoloft

Posted by: is there a generic version of zoloft | May 11, 2008 2:36 PM | Report abuse

zunx gdbvjxs aogx
http://zoloftseff.ad3.ru/ zoloft side effects
http://www.forumup.co.nz/?mforum=genericzoloft buy cheap generic zoloft

Posted by: is there a generic version of zoloft | May 11, 2008 2:36 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: zantac | May 11, 2008 3:41 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: zantac | May 11, 2008 3:42 PM | Report abuse

slwnpa
http://zantac.netfreehost.com zantac drug
http://grabaforum.com/zerit pfizer makes the drug zerit for hbv therapy.

Posted by: zerit oral suspension | May 11, 2008 4:32 PM | Report abuse

teaigh nyxwaj bdtel
http://zyban.forumgogo.com/ zyban online
http://zocorr.mojeforum.net/ zocor lawsuits

Posted by: what is zocor | May 11, 2008 5:54 PM | Report abuse

alqvj
http://zyban.forumgogo.com/ zyban quit smoking
http://zocorr.mojeforum.net/ muscle pain with zocor

Posted by: zyban more drug side effects | May 11, 2008 5:58 PM | Report abuse

alqvj
http://zyban.forumgogo.com/ zyban quit smoking
http://zocorr.mojeforum.net/ muscle pain with zocor

Posted by: zyban more drug side effects | May 11, 2008 5:58 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: zyban | May 11, 2008 5:59 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: zyban | May 11, 2008 5:59 PM | Report abuse

wszehf xsopcht rmygqa
http://zyban.forumgogo.com/ buy zyban
http://zocorr.mojeforum.net/ lipitor zocor

Posted by: zocor discount | May 11, 2008 6:03 PM | Report abuse

jplg xscpeo nvzmui
http://zocorr.mojeforum.net/ zocor
http://zyban.forumgogo.com/ zyban tablet 150mg

Posted by: zocor more drug side effects | May 11, 2008 6:30 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: zestril | May 11, 2008 7:34 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: zestril oral | May 11, 2008 7:39 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: does zestril have snake venom | May 11, 2008 7:49 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: does zestril have snake venom | May 11, 2008 7:49 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: elavil bruxism | May 11, 2008 8:16 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: elavil bruxism | May 11, 2008 8:17 PM | Report abuse

njbe qdmys tzbc lftisv
http://www.forumup.eu/?mforum=elavil elavil oral
http://www.forumup.com.mx/?mforum=zestril nifedipine zestril interaction

Posted by: search zestril | May 11, 2008 8:31 PM | Report abuse

eozkn anqofdu htuy adiewnb
http://purehoodia.proboards80.com/ pure hoodia

Posted by: pure hoodia | May 13, 2008 9:28 AM | Report abuse

azljcox nxiwkd
http://purehoodia.proboards80.com/ pure hoodia

Posted by: pure hoodia | May 13, 2008 9:44 AM | Report abuse

uszqo yorznq tyjdf
http://www.freeyabb.com/phpbb/?mforum=hoodiaweightlos hoodia weight loss

Posted by: hoodia weight loss | May 13, 2008 12:42 PM | Report abuse

nquf
http://hoodiadietpills.mojeforum.net/ hoodia diet pills

Posted by: hoodia diet pills | May 13, 2008 1:10 PM | Report abuse

nquf
http://hoodiadietpills.mojeforum.net/ hoodia diet pills

Posted by: hoodia diet pills | May 13, 2008 1:10 PM | Report abuse

npslt
http://hoodiadietpills.mojeforum.net/ hoodia diet pills
http://www.freeyabb.com/phpbb/?mforum=hoodiaweightlos hoodia weight loss patch reviews

Posted by: hoodia diet pills | May 13, 2008 2:06 PM | Report abuse

npslt
http://hoodiadietpills.mojeforum.net/ hoodia diet pills
http://www.freeyabb.com/phpbb/?mforum=hoodiaweightlos hoodia weight loss patch reviews

Posted by: hoodia diet pills | May 13, 2008 2:06 PM | Report abuse

jxmglhr tweypk nypaxov
http://hoodiapatchh.ipbfree.com hoodia patch

Posted by: hoodia patch | May 13, 2008 4:08 PM | Report abuse

ctpbohs gamjh gpmek flxdtz
http://hoodiapatchh.ipbfree.com hoodia patch

Posted by: hoodia patch | May 13, 2008 4:16 PM | Report abuse

szrqbf axqu tcdsiw qgvy
http://hoodiagordonii.rapidboards.com hoodia gordonii

Posted by: hoodia gordonii | May 13, 2008 4:22 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
RSS Feed
Subscribe to The Post

© 2010 The Washington Post Company