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Mason Dixon Shows Tight Race

Tim Craig

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama and Republican John McCain are locked in an extremely close race in Virginia, according to a new poll by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. for NBC News and several newspapers.

In the survey, Obama receives 47 percent of the vote compared to McCain's 45 percent. But the survey indicates Obama has been gaining ground in Virginia. In a Mason-Dixon poll earlier this month, McCain led Obama by a margin of 48 percent to 45 percent.

The poll finds Obama with a 30 -point lead in Northern Virginia, 61 percent to 31 percent. McCain leads by 23 percentage points in the Shenandoah Valley, and by 15 points in Southwest Virginia. He holds a smaller 11-point edge in the Richmond media market, but Obama now has a 5-point advantage in the critical Hampton Roads region.

Another Virginia poll commissioned by CNN has Obama leading McCain by 10 percentage points. Obama draws 54percent of the vote compared to McCain's 44 percent, according to the CNN poll, which was released today.

By Tim Craig  |  October 22, 2008; 12:48 PM ET
Categories:  Tim Craig  
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Comments

The vast majority of polling hasn't shown it this close for weeks... shouldn't that be included somewhere in the column?

Posted by: nshank | October 22, 2008 2:12 PM | Report abuse

Pollster, Dates, McCain Obama
Mason-Dixon 10/20-21/08 45 47
Zogby 10/17-20/08 46 50
SurveyUSA 10/18-19/08 45 51
Rasmussen 10/16/08 44 54
CNN/Time 10/11-14/08 43 53
Newport U 10/11-14/08 43 49

Pollster.com trend has Obama 51-43
Wont even be that close. Tidal wave comin folks....

Posted by: pj451 | October 22, 2008 2:24 PM | Report abuse

Lets not be complacent...
Lets get out and make sure that we all vote.
Let there be peace and prosperity in the US and entire world.
Lets make things better...


Posted by: Jimmy | October 22, 2008 2:34 PM | Report abuse

Those predicting a landslide are way off. Everything (always) tightens up in the final weeks. Obama has an edge but this will be a close count in the end.

Posted by: Sure Thing | October 22, 2008 2:41 PM | Report abuse

Obama resole his shows while Palin spends $ 150K. Check this out:


http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/22/9355/4279/150/638528

Posted by: NRI | October 22, 2008 2:42 PM | Report abuse

Yes, nshank, that comparative information SHOULD be noted in this column, but that wouldn't serve the Post's financial interested in hyping this outlier poll.

Posted by: uh_huhh | October 22, 2008 2:42 PM | Report abuse

See the history of Mason-Dixon polls and decide for yourself. Check that in all battle ground states and it always have a huge difference with the rest of pollsters.


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html

Posted by: Anonymous | October 22, 2008 2:52 PM | Report abuse

OBAMA IS THE 2007 18-1 Patriots, look what happened when no one gave the Giants a chance!


MCCain/Palin 08

Posted by: DCMOM | October 22, 2008 2:55 PM | Report abuse

The popular vote will absolutely tighten from tyhe current 10 plus point Obama leads, however, we are looking at an Electoral College Landslide the size of which has not been seen for quite a while. I am not complacent, overconfident or relaxing, I will continue working 24 hours a day for President-Elect Obama. McCain's folks know it's over, how else to explain putting everything they have into Pennsylvania!! LOL!

Posted by: PJ451 | October 22, 2008 3:14 PM | Report abuse

By Thanksgiving Day will anyone remember the has been from Alaska? Will anyone even care?

Posted by: Anonymous | October 22, 2008 3:39 PM | Report abuse

The popular vote may be close, both in Va and nationwide. But this will be a blowout of Reagan or Clinton proportions. 270 electoral votes are needed to win; Obama will haul in 350+. And, sadly, Va will go blue for the first time in 44 years. As a moderate that pains me, but I actually think Obama will do ok. Despite all the hateful things posted on blogs like this, both men are admirable and both represent a needed change for our country's direction.

Do your part: vote.

Posted by: PalinFan | October 22, 2008 3:51 PM | Report abuse

mason/dixon polling? I guess Obambi must be really ahead in a poll with a suspicious name like that. Why don't they just rename the poll Mosby-Stuart?

Posted by: bgreston | October 22, 2008 3:52 PM | Report abuse

Now AP reports only 1 lead for Obama. What's going on? I know AP polls favour GOP all the time but this much difference from other reputed pollsters?


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27324419/

Posted by: Anonymous | October 22, 2008 3:54 PM | Report abuse

Mason-Dixon poll histoically leans Republican and is not to be trusted on its own merit but Virginia is probably tight until the end.

Posted by: optodoc | October 22, 2008 4:14 PM | Report abuse

I love how every poll that shows McCain close is a poll that "favors the GOP." I cannot believe how pathetic democrats are. You are whiny babies that just want everything given to you, so that's why you vote for the person who promises the most for your pocketbook and you have no interest in seeing what's best for the country. Go ahead, elect the least experienced, most radically liberal (yes, I mean socialist/marxist)individual on the planet and see where this country will go. You want government subsidized health insurance? You're gonna get it and Oh, by the way, be prepared for wait lists for hospital procedures and don't be surprised when your employer drops health coverage because it's more cost effective to pay a government fine that provide insurance for thousands of employees. You want to tax the wealthy and small businesses? Go ahead - but don't whine when unemployment soars because small businesses and corporations cut jobs to maintain their margin that was squeezed by increased taxes. You're going to get exactly what you deserve.

Posted by: Jennifer Sypal | October 22, 2008 5:06 PM | Report abuse

Where on Earth is coverage of the Virginia race for the US Senate? Will you guys ever remember the state to your south and south west? If Maryland was electing a US senator, we would see it on page A1 everyday. Your link to the Virginia senate race doesn't even list the candidates.

This is what you find when you click on the link for "All Elections In Virginia"

http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/elections/va/

This is a disgrace.

Posted by: thuff7 | October 22, 2008 5:08 PM | Report abuse

"The popular vote may be close, both in Va and nationwide. But this will be a blowout of Reagan or Clinton proportions."

Hate to break it to you. Bill Clinton did not receive the majority of popular vote in either of his elections. There was a 3rd party candidate. He won both elections with 40-something % of the vote. More people voted against him than for him. Hardly a blowout. But there sure was a lot of hot air.

Posted by: thuff7 | October 22, 2008 5:13 PM | Report abuse

Jennifer Sypal, for the last 8 years americns have been getting exactly what YOU deserve....hope your next 8 years are as god awful miserable as the last 8 years have been for the normal folks....

Posted by: pj451 | October 22, 2008 5:22 PM | Report abuse

Who are the "normal folks" and why should we care?

Posted by: thuff7 | October 22, 2008 5:32 PM | Report abuse

"Go ahead, elect the least experienced, most
radically liberal (yes, I mean socialist/marxist)individual on the planet and see where this country will go."

Man, someone skipped their meds today. I think you've been drinking too much of the radical right kool-aid. None of these things will happen if Barrack Obama is elected president. Lay off the hysteria and focus on the real issues.

Do you really think if someone making $250k per year gets another tax break of $10k that it will generate a lot of new jobs?

Posted by: thuff7 | October 22, 2008 5:53 PM | Report abuse

My absentee vote has already been cast for Obama. If I get polled, I'll tell them I'm voting for McCain.

Posted by: Loudoun Voter | October 22, 2008 6:03 PM | Report abuse

The polls are really strange and weird in this election. The pro-McCain poll will try to make it look like the race is close especially in traditional red states; i.e., Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, Colorado, Florida. All Obama-Biden supporters should go out and vote whether the polls show Obama up by a wide margin.

Posted by: M. Stratas | October 22, 2008 6:03 PM | Report abuse

My absentee vote has already been cast for Obama. If I get polled, I'll tell them I'm voting for McCain.

Posted by: Loudoun Voter | October 22, 2008 6:04 PM | Report abuse

The Mason-Dixon pollsters are on drugs.

SurveyUSA 10/19: Obama +6
Rasmussen 10/16: Obama +10
CNN has him up 11.

And as far as the VA senate race goes: as the colonel said in the Rambo movie, "it's over, Johnny." Gilmore doesn't have a prayer. He's down by double digits everywhere.

Posted by: suntzu2008 | October 22, 2008 6:21 PM | Report abuse

Raising the income tax rate on those with more than $250,000 of taxable income (note that this is income AFTER deductions) from 36 to 39% does not a marxist, or even a socialist make. America's most prosperous years - 1992-200 - had exactly such a tax rate. Moreover, this tax policy didn't reduce job growth. Under 8 years of Clinton, 23 million jobs were created; under GWB, only 5 million. This was barely enough to cover a fraction of new job entrants to the work force, hence the highest unemployment rates in recent history.

McCain's hysteria of socialism and the unfortunate tendency of people to buy into this hysteria is very unfortunate. As for Joe, the fake plumber, it appears that if it weren't for unemployment benefits and welfare, both he and his parents would be on the streets. Yet, like a programmed robot, he continues to rant against the social safety networks this country has created for him. And judging by his track record, its going to the year 2088 before he makes even $50,000 annually, let alone $250,000.

Posted by: Jason | October 22, 2008 7:27 PM | Report abuse

If polls are all we need, why have elections?

To sum it up.. The American voter has a historic way of making the polls, papers and pundits look silly.... they decide who they want on election day.

McCain - Palin 08

Posted by: Joe Bob | October 22, 2008 7:34 PM | Report abuse

OBAMA BIDEN 08...!!!


Posted by: NETHERLANDS ANTILLES | October 22, 2008 7:35 PM | Report abuse

America’s Next President

Good by George and Richard. We will certainly miss you both a great deal, given the deep understanding and sound judgment you demonstrated in committing our country to an invasion and a very expensive protracted war in Iraq. And many thanks also for keeping a close regulatory eye on Wall Street and our mortgage lending and banking system during your 8 year watch. Sorry Bill and Hillary. Of course we really wanted to have you back again so that Bill could have another shot at some more action with interns in the oval office; and we will certainly miss not being able to hear all the details of such encounters. Too bad John and Sarah. We will always be deeply grateful to you, John, for wisely putting the needs of our country above petty politics in choosing your running mate. But, Sarah, unfortunately it looks like we may never get a chance to fulfill our wildest dream of someday having President Palin lead the free world. On the other hand Barack Obama isn’t all that much, is he? He is merely an intelligent, articulate, and insightful 47 year old biracial man, a top of his class graduate of Harvard Law School and president of its Law Review, a former instructor in constitutional law for 12 years at the University of Chicago Law School, a 3 term Illinois State Senator and US Senator for the past 4 years, a Washington outsider with fresh ideas who wants to make significant changes in Washington. Come to think of it. Welcome Barack Obama!

Posted by: Robert | October 22, 2008 7:41 PM | Report abuse

Robert,

Nice Try...If you were selling ice cream you should try the native americans in Alaska... but no sell.

The elite Obama has too many radical connections that he has to pay homage to in the liberal left to stand on his own. Nancy and Harry will want their pound of flesh also.

Since when has it been proven that a tax and spend liberal government outweighes the benefits of a fiscally conservative government in times of economic hardship. You cannot spend your way into prosperity.

Of course we are both wasting our time as no amount of discussion can change our views. Mine is based on personal experience, I do not know what your is based on or how you come to it.

I guess I will drop my insurance, slow my business down to adjust for a long, hard recession and wait for my check to come in from Obama. At least I will be able to work the tax angles to get myself some of that 95% tax relief.

Posted by: Joe Bob | October 22, 2008 7:51 PM | Report abuse

****AMERICA SHOULD BE FEARFULLY CONCERNED****

In the last month, After Governor Sarah Palin and HER Administration was refused by The Alaska Superior Court, then refused by The Alaska Supreme Court to SQUASH the “Troopergate Investigation” against Sarah Palin, the Alaska State Legislative Investigation (LAW) moved on the investigation of the Firing of the Alaska State Public Safety Commissioner.

Gov.Sarah Palin “IS” found “GUILTY” by The Alaska State Legislature [60] Lawmakers, [Mostly Republicans] .in the Investigation of Firing" The Chief of The Alaska State Public Safety Commissioner, Walt Monegan.

TROOPERGATE: In plain English, Sarah Palin has been legally PROVEN that she broke the Alaska State Ethics Law in ABUSING HER power in pushing for the firing of a State Trooper once married to her sister and by also ALLOWING her husband Todd Palin to use the Alaska Governor's Office in a crusade against the Officer. She is charged with 18 Ethic Violation Facts.

Currently the State of Alaska Personnel Board [appointed by Sara Palin} hired a private Investigator to continue the “Troopergate Investigation” on possible OTHER Ethic Violations which Palin allowed HER appointed Administration to participate in. Sarah Palins appointed State of Alaska, Attorney General Colberg, cannot participate to defend Gov. Palin or to defend her Administration. Why? Because he also is in conflict of interest

ALASKA GOVERNOR RECALL!
I am an Alaskan life voting Republican. This 2008 Election, I will [with pleasure] vote Democrat!

This Alaska Governor Palin has Destroyed and continues to attempt to Destroy "MANY GOOD ALASKAN PEOPLE(s)” Professionally and Politically during her "VERY SHORT" term position as Mayor in a small community Wasilla, Ak (Approx 5,000 + residents during her reign) and currently the Alaska State Governor.

McCain’s V.P. selection Sarah Palin unequivocally has NO business being the Alaska Governor, let alone, a USA Candidate for Vice President…..

Maverick??.....”AMERICA SHOULD BE FEARFULLY CONCERNED”

I voted for Sarah Palin in Alaskans 2006 Governor Election. MISTAKE!.... Never Again… I repeat-NEVER AGAIN!!....Alaska Governor Palin is an absolute Embarrassment to the Alaska People(s) and "IS PROVEN” Over and Over to be an insatiable LIAR!!..
.
How can she possibly ASSUME to possess the ability to clean up America, when she cannot clean the progressive ''MESS" She has created, then left Alaska to run for the United States V.P. Yes, she .departed leaving “HERSELF and HER husband todd palins” Mess FOR Alaskans to Clean-Up!!

MCCAIN, you should be ASHAMED of yourself!!!! This victim (palin) has no business in this Presidential Arena.

Posted by: Alaskan Voter
Thank You,
History of Palin News & Investigation Report adn.com/Newsweek

McClatchy.com; Washington Post
Anchorage Daily News a.dn.com ;Newsweek; Alaska Politics

Posted by: AlaskanVoter | October 22, 2008 7:55 PM | Report abuse

Alaskanvoter,

Get a life, get a job, get over it.

Sarah Palin did and does have issues as we all do. Cast the first stone - why did you not get a dump truck?

Politics and Politicians are a necessary item in our form of government.. be calm.

Hopefully a prozac tonight and call your shrink tomorrow.

McCain-Palin 08

Posted by: Joe Bob | October 22, 2008 8:00 PM | Report abuse

OMG!!!
PALIN TELLS KIDS VICE PRESIDENT(RUNS)SENATE

Posted by: NETHERLANDS ANTILLES | October 22, 2008 8:05 PM | Report abuse

OMG!!!! Palin read the US Constitution.

Posted by: spintreebob | October 22, 2008 8:42 PM | Report abuse

Much of these wonderful problems we are facing today are a product of poor management (and yes its such a horrid word but) republican socialist policies towards to financial sector. Not to say both sides have not contributed to this crisis but the sub prime morgage crisis is a direct result of Reaganomics and the greed of people to want things beyond their needs and wants. I will be the first to say the average American does not know how to properly spend or use their money, hence the huge credit card debts people even to this day are incurring. Socialism in a simple form isnt a bad thing. Look at Europe, god it has just gone to pieces and can barely function!! I guess it is too hard to realize the privatized health care is not a good thing for quality of care or for peoples lifespans. People shouldnt be making money off cutting corners with people's lives. You argue we get better care when we get kicked out of a hospital as fast as possible after an operation due to costs. People are refused simple operations due to their insurance deeming it not necessary, and to make it worse people that do have health problems cant get insurance if they loose it b/c they cant work. I cant help that most of the republican attitudes that I hear today be in direct conflict with that the party once stood for and what conservatism is. Realize that taxes might make jobs in the public sector. Being a conservative doesnt mean you are selfish it means you are social more responsible and this Republican party has distorted and destroyed what was once a noble and pure view of politics. If you call yourself a conservative then know that most of what you are voting for is hearsay that does nothing but hurt the people most likely to vote for it the most. Its blue collar rural "real america" that needs to social programs and needs the access to these services. Why are you turning away the things that could possibly make life better in pursuit of a vain attempt to back a party that is using you and everything you stand for to make money for its big wigs. The world is a big place. And many palces are better than the US right now.

Posted by: fromfarabroad | October 22, 2008 10:27 PM | Report abuse

Guess what, liberal chumps, McCain is going to win on November 4th. The results will serve as a catalyst for massive handwringing and bruxism by liberals-weeping for the loss of their Obama "god"

Posted by: McCain Surprise! | October 23, 2008 3:35 AM | Report abuse

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