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Obama Opens Up Lead in Va.

Tim Craig

A new CNN /Time Magazine poll out today shows Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) with a 9 point lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain in Virginia.

Obama receives 53 percent of the vote to McCain's 44 percent. In a CNN/Time poll two weeks ago, McCain led Obama by 4 points in Virginia. The most recent poll was conducted Sunday through Tuesday during the height news coverage of the ongoing economic crisis involving the credit markets and Wall Street.

The timing of the poll may have skewed the results in Obama's favor, but he now holds commanding leads in both Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. He and McCain are tied in the Richmond area, according to the poll.

In Northern Virginia - which includes Loudoun, Fairfax, Arlington, Prince William and Alexandria - Obama received 60 percent of the vote compared to McCain's 37 percent. The regional breakdowns have a margin of error of plus or minus 7 percentage points, but Obama held a similar advantage in Northern Virginia in a Washington Post poll conducted Sept. 18 to 21.

In Hampton Roads, Obama leads by 17 points, 57 to 40 percent. Obama led by 5 points in Hampton Roads in the Washington Post poll.

McCain is up 50 percent to 49 percent in the Richmond area, which includes much of central Virginia. CNN/Time were unable to provide numbers for heavily Republican Western Virginia.

Obama also appears to be making inroads with white votes. McCain has an 8 point edge overall among white voters, but he and Obama are tied among white women. Obama is also being supported by four in ten white males, a big improvement over recent Democratic presidential nominees. CNN/Time were unable to provide information on non-white voters.

The poll also indicates that Democratic voters have solidified behind Obama; only 2 percent of them say they support McCain. Ninety-three percent of Republicans back McCain, but Obama has opened a 12 point lead among Independents. Two weeks ago, McCain led Obama by 9 points with Independents in the CNN/Time poll.

By Tim Craig  |  October 1, 2008; 4:31 PM ET
Categories:  Barack Obama , Election 2008/President , Tim Craig  
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Comments

There is no way that Minnesota and Virginia end up in the same place on election day. Minnesota is 6%-8% more Democratic than Virginia.

Posted by: Chris Porter | October 1, 2008 5:29 PM | Report abuse

I have a little trouble believing this poll is valid.

If it is, it certainly is a shocker. This could put Obama beyond the effects of the Bradley Factor.

Posted by: NoVA | October 1, 2008 6:11 PM | Report abuse

Believe the poll, I am a Virginian Republican, worried about the economy, and will be voting for Obama/Biden. The country has no choice.

Posted by: VAVOTER | October 2, 2008 10:19 AM | Report abuse

This will be Obama by a landslide. Can someone tell McCain that we have already seen what a Republican administration can do over the course of 8 years. I have difficulty believing one Republican admin will be drastically different from another.

The comment above is right. We dont have a choice.

Posted by: Wayne | October 2, 2008 10:31 AM | Report abuse

The choice was take away by Mccain when he chose Palin. Mccain sensed desperation on his part but in return showed a bad judgement and took away the experience factor from his campaign book. And the audacity of Mccain to blame the economic crisis on Obama and democrats is plain stupid and makes him look hypocrite. I am a staunch conservative and republicans took that mantra away and now they look like a party of hypocrites.
Save our country Vote Obama.

Posted by: tony | October 2, 2008 10:41 AM | Report abuse

I hope when you idiots don't vote this fool, BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA into office, you'll wish you had not when he removes the tools of fighting terrorism and we have another 9/11 under his watch, but this time, tens of thousands of people may die.

Although i do not agree with BUSH on alot of things, he has kept this country free of another attack on our soil since 9/11.

Amazing how people speak of the president being so incompetent when congress has an approval rating of 9%...

Congress controls this country remember, the president only approves or denies bills they create...

Posted by: billy brigg | October 2, 2008 10:46 AM | Report abuse

The time is now!
To remind Americans that Barack Hussein Obama is just another politician that will do or say whatever it takes to fulfill his political ambitions. Barack is calculated and methodical about hiding his true convictions and intentions, and uses deception to get elected.

The time is now!
To remind Americans that Barack Hussein Obama had a 20 year association with his religious leader and priest Jeremiah Wright, who became Barack's idol and role model. Jeremiah married Barack and Michelle and baptized both their daughters. AND, we all remember the hideous videos of Jeremiah Wright’s congregation which included the Obamas, damning America with bombastic joy, after the Muslim’s criminal attack on America on 9/11.

The time is now!
To remind Americans that Barack's religious leader Jeremiah Wright used his tax-exempt church to exercise a radical political agenda, and he refers to Israel, as well as America, as a "racist" State. Theologically Barack's religious leader Jeremiah Wright believes that the true 'Chosen People' are the blacks; He believes that black values are superior to middle-class American values, and that blacks should isolate themselves from the wider American society.
 Indeed Barack's religious leader Jeremiah Wright is a black supremacist.

The time is now!
To remind Americans that Barack Hussein Obama wants to be president to implement Jeremiah Wright’s dream of a black supremacist society in America.

The time is now!
For Americans of all political parties to come together to preserve the future of the country we love by voting for John McCain for President of the United States of America.

Country First!
Americans for John McCain/Sarah Palin

Posted by: Manolete | October 2, 2008 10:51 AM | Report abuse

"McCain has a 8 point edge overall..."
Should be written:
"an 8 point..."

Posted by: Dave | October 2, 2008 10:52 AM | Report abuse

no way no how no mccain-palin

Posted by: n/a | October 2, 2008 10:54 AM | Report abuse

While I'm glad that people are increasingly starting to back Obama, I'm sorry to see a couple of posters seem to be doing it out of feeling like they "don't have a choice". I'd strongly urge both voters in that category as well as undecideds to try and get a hold of his book "Audacity of hope" to get better insights into his views on the constitution, race, faith and other issues. It's an easy read (which is surprising considering the topics) and I just about guarantee you will then feel more comfortable with your decision to vote for him. He is brilliant, wise, and deliberative - that's exactly the kind of president the country needs right now, regardless of his color.

Posted by: Jen | October 2, 2008 10:55 AM | Report abuse

I guess fearmonger "Manolette" is bothered by Jeremiah Wright's words but isn't bothered by the fact that Palin's pastor has also said something to the effect of Goddamn America or that Palin has been blessed to protect her from witchcraft. That on top of her abject ignorance and her ethical "lapses". So much for McCain putting country first.

Posted by: Jen | October 2, 2008 11:09 AM | Report abuse

After reading the radical comments of the McCain/Palin supporters, I feel even more secure in my decision to change parties and vote for Obama. As a lifelong Republican I have always voted with my party. What has happened over the last 8 years, and the amount of nuts using race and moral issues have reminded me how important it is to elect someone who fosters unity and objective thinking. Radical, fear-based arguments got us into this mess in the first place! Give it up... To many of us have lost our jobs and our security to keep voting the same way. I am ready for a change.

Posted by: John | October 2, 2008 11:30 AM | Report abuse

I am no Mccain fan, never have been, but the only person he has to blame is himself. His judgement and temperemant have been on display intensly the last few weeks and it has been found lacking. Erratic behavior in pretending to suspend his campaign, and statements like "the fundamentals of the economy are strong" doesn't encourage confidence in his judgement.

Palin may be a Republican conspiracy to make George Bush look smart. The fact that she will be one 72 year old, former Cancer patient, heartbeat away from the presidency should frighten us all.

Posted by: Farzad | October 2, 2008 11:47 AM | Report abuse

You'd be surprised how many people in Northern Virginia are voting for Obama (myself included). We don't really consider ourselves southern, if you drive a half hour south though it's a different story. But even around Richmond and the farm country there is big support for Obama.

Posted by: Rob | October 2, 2008 12:30 PM | Report abuse

Bill Brigg= conteptuous racist!

Posted by: Jack | October 2, 2008 2:04 PM | Report abuse

The time is now!
To remind Americans of John McCain's involvement in the Keating 5, the S&L crisis in which McCain tried to protect a criminal while hundreds of thousands of Americans lost their life savings because of his criminal activity.

The time is now!
To remind Americans that McCain has consistently voted AGAINST our veterans and troops, and that veterans groups give McCain a grade of "D" on his voting record for them.

The time is now!
To remind Americans that McCain consistently votes against our children and their education.

The time is now!
To remind Americans that McCain has consistently voted against measures that would improve our environment.

The time is now!
To remind Americans that McCain has voted WITH George Bush and his failed polices 93% of the time.

The time is now!
To remind Americans that McCain is no friend to women and consistently votes against issues important to women 100% of the time, including voting against equal pay for equal work for women. Instead, he suggested women go to night school.

The time is now!
To remind Americans that McCain voted 13 times AGAINST raising the minimum wage (meanwhile, McCain has a dozen houses, two dozen cars, and millions in the bank).

The time is now!
To remind Americans that McCain is unfit to serve in the highest office of the land, and his running mate is even more unfit to serve should something happen to McCain's health.

The time is now!
To remind Americans who truly put country first to vote for Obama.

The time is now! Obama/Biden!

Posted by: Republican 4 Obama | October 2, 2008 3:26 PM | Report abuse

Who in their right state of mind would want to have an encore performance of republican administration!!#$ We need to stand up and send a message - there IS consequences for screwing up this country!
OBAMA/BIDEN all the way!

Posted by: Jeff | October 2, 2008 3:32 PM | Report abuse

I have to laugh when someone makes the claim that there's no way this poll is correct. So, where are you? Minnesota? I mean, anyone on the ground here in NoVA knows exactly why this poll has come out the way it has. Obama is all the buzz in these parts.

Last night I was going door-to-door in my neighborhood, and every door I knocked on of an undecided or unknown voter around here was so amazingly enthusiastic about going to vote for Obama---EVERY SINGLE ONE. NO ONE I talked to backed McCain, and back in 2004, there just wasn't this level of enthusiasm for John Kerry.

Now, I live in a pretty Democratic precinct. We got 68% for Kerry and had a turnout of 2381 voters in my precinct in 2004. This year, our goals for targeted raw votes are 2600 and increasing the percentage up to 72%. I wouldn't be surprised if we have 2750 voters and nearly 80% for Obama.

The enthusiasm on the ground is palpable and overwhelming in Virginia. Obama's got this thing, hands down, as long as our supporters get out and vote.

Posted by: Doug in Mount Vernon | October 2, 2008 3:48 PM | Report abuse

One other thing--Fairfax County voters need to be SURE to vote on a paper ballot indicating their choices (creating a voter-verified paper trail in the case of a needed recount or audit). DO NOT USE THE TOUCH-SCREEN ELECTRONIC MACHINES!!! Make sure to tell your election officer when you go to vote that you want to vote using the OPTICAL SCANNER (a machine that reads the scanned paper ballot you've completed by filling in the ovals next to your candidate's name). DON'T LET YOUR VOTE GET STOLEN---VOTE ON PAPER BALLOTS!!!!

Posted by: Doug in Mount Vernon | October 2, 2008 3:56 PM | Report abuse

I live in James City County near Williamsburg which is solidly Republican but all I see around here are Obama stickers and yard signs. Something big is happening here. I think the Democrats might take this state for the first time since LBJ and its amazing to see.

Posted by: Steve O | October 2, 2008 4:18 PM | Report abuse

billy brigg says: Although i do not agree with BUSH on alot of things, he has kept this country free of another attack on our soil since 9/11.

The problem, Billy, is that Bush should have kept us free of that first attack. He was briefed beforehand that Bin Laden intended to strike. And ignored the intelligence. We were all also aware of the possible levee failures if NOLA took a direct hit from a hurricane. And the financial market meltdown was predicted. So exactly what does Bush get credit for doing right? See http://egan.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/01/the-legacy/?hp

Thank goodness for voters who are smart enough to overlook race and vote for the best candidate. I'm so excited about the poll results we are seeing this week that I could jump up and down. AFter eight dismal years, finally a president who can complete an intelligent sentence!

Posted by: Obamican | October 2, 2008 4:20 PM | Report abuse

I can't tell you how uplifting it is in conservative Orange County California to look at the faces of all the drivers whose cars bear Obama/Biden stickers. We are from every walk of life and it frankly shocked me to see a normally republican stronghold openly supporting a democratic ticket because it represents the best chance to change America for the better. God bless everyone who has the courage to look past artificial party alliance for doing the right thing. I'm proud to call Obama-Biden my choice for President/Vice President of the United States of America. Let the healing begin.

Posted by: SCUBA Divers for Obama | October 2, 2008 7:07 PM | Report abuse

Obama has shown far better leadership on the financial crisis than McCain so it should be no surprise his numbers are headed up nationwide.

Their positions on the bailout were the same. But McCains obvious attempts to use the crisis as a campaign tool no doubt turned off alot of votes.

Posted by: Rick W | October 4, 2008 5:44 PM | Report abuse

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