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Mason-Dixon Shows McDonnell by 8

Rosalind Helderman

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which like the Post does live interviews and not automated robocalls, is out with a poll in the Virginia governor's race. And it shows a similar spread to the Post poll last week--Republican Robert F. McDonnell over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds by eight percentage points.

Like the Post, Mason-Dixon, which was funded by the Richmond Times Dispatch and other Virginia press outlets, has McDonnell way up with independents, which will be encouraging to his campaign. The new poll shows him ahead by 15 with that group--a striking lead though not quite the 21 point gap the Post showed last week.

The Mason-Dixon poll also has McDonnell with strong leads in the Valley, Southwest, southside and Richmond and shows the race a statistical tie in the Hampton Roads area. The poll shows Deeds ahead in NoVa--51 to 42. The Post had McDonnell doing somewhat better in NoVa, with Deeds' lead at 51 to 46.)

Two other interesting distinctions between this week's poll and last--they may both come from how exactly the questions were asked by the pollsters. (Read the Post's exact questions here.)

Last week's Post poll found that 60 percent of likely voters approved strongly or somewhat with the job Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine is doing. The MD poll found that 48 percent believe Kaine is doing a good or excellent job, a significantly less rosy figure for the sitting governor.

And there's this one, which we're imagining is the subject of a lot of discussion and parsing at the headquarters of both campaigns: MD found that just 12 percent of likely voters remain undecided, a number that would suggest very little room for major shifts in the electorate between now and Nov. 3. The Post poll showed that 25 percent of voters were not yet certain of their selection.

The Post polled 2,091 adults Virginians, 1,001 of them said they were absolutely certain to vote, over Oct. 4 to 7 and the poll had a sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. Over Oct. 6 to 8, Mason-Dixon Polling & Research interviewed by telephone 625 registered voters, all of whom said they are likely to cast ballots Nov. 3. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

By Rosalind Helderman  |  October 11, 2009; 10:57 AM ET
Categories:  2009 Governor's Race , Creigh Deeds , Election 2009 , Robert F. McDonnell , Rosalind Helderman  
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Sorry -- both of these polls numbers for NOVA are just not right. Either you are not including important groups (Latinos, young people, etc.) or you are counting outer "red" suburbs as NOVA -- I'm not sure -- but there is something VERY wrong with these numbers.

But, if the numbers are off -- I would rather them be off this way that in the Dem favor. The GOP is hungry -- after so MANY losses. Anything that will make the VA GOP more complacent is fine with VA Dems.

We are keeping our work going, knowing that Bob McDonnell is lying his head off to try to win and that if by some horrible miscalculation, the people of Virginia get taken in by the lies, "GW Gilmore" will screw things up so badly that they will come back to us 2 years from now in the VA State Senate races and 4 years from now with the next Governor's race.

Selling Liquor Stores=Car Tax Disaster.

I am counting on the good sense of Virginians who remember what the LAST Republican Governor did to our Commonwealth and what we had to do to come back from the brink of that politically created debacle.

Posted by: rebeccajm | October 11, 2009 12:14 PM | Report abuse

The polls are right. BTW, Loudoun County is part of NOVA last time I checked the map. We supporters of McDonnell are not complacent..we are fired up (to coin a phrase). In my four week-ends of knocking on doors I find only a very few people will acknowledge supporting Deeds. One woman I talked to yesterday said: "I can't wait to get to vote for Bob." I know the feeling...that is exactly what I said in 1980--I was itching to get Jimmy Carter out of office. We are going to campaign hard until the last minute of the last day to sweep the Democrats out of statewide offices in Virginia.

Posted by: dcmowbray1 | October 11, 2009 1:55 PM | Report abuse

The latest polling numbers are also supported by the fact that Bob McDonnell has already been officially endorsed during the past few weeks by:

a) The Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce, widely regarded as Northern Virginia’s premier business organization; b) The Northern Virginia Technology Council representing 200,000 employees in about 1000 technology companies in Northern Virginia; c) The National Federation of Independent Businesses, the leading small business association in Virginia with nearly 6,000 small businesses as members; d) Virginia Fraternal Order of Police with nearly 8,000 members and 50 lodges; e) Virginia Realtors, the largest trade association in Virginia with 33,000+ members; f) Virginia AgPAC, the political action committee of the Virginia Farm Bureau Federation with 147,000+ members; g) Virginia Credit Union League, a trade association representing Virginia’s 194 not-for-profit credit unions and with 3,000,000 member-owners residing in Virginia; h) The National Rifle Association with 120,000 members in Virginia; i) The Hampton Roads Chamber of Commerce, the premier business organization consisting of 2500 firms with nearly 300,000 working women and men; and, j) The Humane Society Legislative Fund, the lobbying affiliate of the Humane Society of the United States.

Posted by: VirginianforFreedom | October 11, 2009 2:04 PM | Report abuse

it's all about turnout and I don't see unemployed dems voting for another dem anytime soon...

Posted by: DwightCollins | October 11, 2009 3:55 PM | Report abuse

2010 cannot get here soon enough to start sending anyone that rubber stamped massive spending bills without reading them home. Vote them out of office as they breached their fiduciary duty to their constituents to actual read bills and debate them before voting. If we wanted robots we could simple put Pelosi in charge and the Democrats would vote as she orders, wait we already have that.

Posted by: Bubbette1 | October 11, 2009 4:32 PM | Report abuse

Oh listen to the libs whine. I guess maybe if you got outside of the wine and cheese crowd, you would not be shocked to see your liberal candidate is struggling.

The only one lying is Deeds, who on one had says he won't raise taxes, but on the other, says he will in order to fix transportation. Ten years ago he was not in favor of rights for gays, but the compost ignores that in favor of going after McDonnell for his thesis twenty years ago. It's all failed. Now, you are left having to believe Deeds must be doing better in NOVA because of minorities and youngsters. The bottom line is that McDonnell has run the better race, kept on message, while Deeds, has not been able to keep on message, because he does not have one, and he is slinging mud and lying.

Posted by: irish031 | October 11, 2009 5:57 PM | Report abuse

Get rid of the people who signed off on massive deficits?
That would be the REPUBLICANS, right? The one's who voted with BUSH for 12 TRILLION in national Debt,right?
BYE BYE republicans!

Posted by: mykmlr | October 11, 2009 6:23 PM | Report abuse

The result election night will be closer than either poll suggests, but McDonnell will win. Perhaps Virginia will be the bellwether state for 2010. Kaine, although a nice guy and good Catholic, has been a disappointment. Warner has a reputation for fiscal prudence, but it will be hard for him to resist the enormous pressure exerted by Harry Reid, et al, to spend the nation into oblivion on health care and other liberal priorities. Webb, well enough about him. As for the incumbent at the White House, the O has got to go!

Posted by: yomammahere | October 11, 2009 6:33 PM | Report abuse

Deeds is a liberal? that is just nuts and shows you know squat about him.


Posted by: leichtman | October 11, 2009 7:47 PM | Report abuse

ACORN was Dirty Deeds' last best hope, and thanks to "lunatics" like Glenn Beck, (good thing we didn't sit around and wait for Keith Olbermann to do the right thing) they shouldn't play a role. Say goodnight, Dirty..

Posted by: SMWE357 | October 12, 2009 5:32 AM | Report abuse

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