Mason-Dixon Shows McDonnell by 8
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which like the Post does live interviews and not automated robocalls, is out with a poll in the Virginia governor's race. And it shows a similar spread to the Post poll last week--Republican Robert F. McDonnell over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds by eight percentage points.
Like the Post, Mason-Dixon, which was funded by the Richmond Times Dispatch and other Virginia press outlets, has McDonnell way up with independents, which will be encouraging to his campaign. The new poll shows him ahead by 15 with that group--a striking lead though not quite the 21 point gap the Post showed last week.
The Mason-Dixon poll also has McDonnell with strong leads in the Valley, Southwest, southside and Richmond and shows the race a statistical tie in the Hampton Roads area. The poll shows Deeds ahead in NoVa--51 to 42. The Post had McDonnell doing somewhat better in NoVa, with Deeds' lead at 51 to 46.)
Two other interesting distinctions between this week's poll and last--they may both come from how exactly the questions were asked by the pollsters. (Read the Post's exact questions here.)
Last week's Post poll found that 60 percent of likely voters approved strongly or somewhat with the job Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine is doing. The MD poll found that 48 percent believe Kaine is doing a good or excellent job, a significantly less rosy figure for the sitting governor.
And there's this one, which we're imagining is the subject of a lot of discussion and parsing at the headquarters of both campaigns: MD found that just 12 percent of likely voters remain undecided, a number that would suggest very little room for major shifts in the electorate between now and Nov. 3. The Post poll showed that 25 percent of voters were not yet certain of their selection.
The Post polled 2,091 adults Virginians, 1,001 of them said they were absolutely certain to vote, over Oct. 4 to 7 and the poll had a sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. Over Oct. 6 to 8, Mason-Dixon Polling & Research interviewed by telephone 625 registered voters, all of whom said they are likely to cast ballots Nov. 3. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
October 11, 2009; 10:57 AM ET
Categories: 2009 Governor's Race , Creigh Deeds , Election 2009 , Robert F. McDonnell , Rosalind Helderman
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