Washington Post polling director Jon Cohen got an early snapshot of the electorate in New Jersey and Virginia this evening from exit polls, and here's what he passed on that we can report:

Economy and jobs top the issue lists in both Virginia and New Jersey (but not as overwhelmingly as it did in 2008), with property taxes a close No. 2 in New Jersey and health care in a distant second place in Virginia.

In the early numbers, younger (under 30) voters make up a smaller share of the electorate this year than they did last November. The percentage of African Americans among all Virginia voters is down a bit at this stage compared with a year ago, but in New Jersey it's currently up from the last go-round. (However, the proportions in Virginia are similar to the 2006 Senate race and the 1997 race for governor).

Majorities in both states say President Obama was not a factor in their choice for governor. Obama is running above 50 percent approval in both states.

More than eight in 10 voters say they made up their minds about how to vote at least a week ago.

Most in Virginia say McDonnell's graduate school thesis had no effect on their vote.

Post reporter Anita Kumar, who has been trailing the Deeds campaign, and Post polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta were online earlier today to discuss the Virginia governor's race and the week remaining in it. Read the full transcript or check out some excerpts from the chat below.

Fairfax County, Va.: Looking at the poll story and the graphics and table provided, it appears that Deeds is polling about as well in northern Virginia as, say, Mark Warner, but doing much worse in the rest of the state than anybody else you list -- Barack Obama, Tim Kaine, or Warner. Yet Deeds is the guy who's emphatically not from northern Virginia (admittedly Kaine isn't either). What gives?

washingtonpost.com: McDonnell's edge over Deeds grows stronger (Post, Oct. 27)

Jennifer Agiesta: Thanks for the question, Fairfax! The regional split is one of the most interesting things we found in this last poll. Deeds' victory in the primary seemed to be more about his electability and appeal outside of the DC suburbs than his positions on the issues, and that bit of strategic voting by Virginia Democrats may have backfired.

Conventional wisdom says a Democrat needs to win around 60 percent of the votes in Northern Virginia to win statewide, but that assumes the candidate can run closely with his or her opponent in the rest of the state, and Deeds is clearly lagging behind other successful Democrats on that front. Outside of Northern Virginia, half of all likely voters call Deeds "too liberal," and McDonnell has whopping advantages on handling taxes (32 points), transportation and the economy (25 points), and issues of special concern to women (17 points). Even in the western part of the state (which includes his home in Bath County) Deeds trails McDonnell in the race by 27 points.

Republican Robert F. McDonnell has taken a commanding lead over R. Creigh Deeds in the race for governor of Virginia, as momentum the Democrat had built with an attack on his opponent's conservative social views has dissipated, according to a new Washington Post poll.

McDonnell leads 53 to 44 percent among likely voters, expanding on the four-point lead he held in mid-September. Deeds's advantage with female voters has all but disappeared and McDonnell has grown his already wide margin among independents. Deeds, a state senator from western Virginia, is widely seen by voters as running a negative campaign, a finding that might indicate his aggressive efforts to exploit McDonnell's 20-year-old graduate thesis are turning voters away.

Read the full story and see the raw data.

Our colleagues on the polling team have put up an interesting analysis of perceptions of the Virginia governor's race in Northern Virginia versus the rest of the state in the most recent Washington Post poll on their blog, Behind the Numbers.
Take a look here.

Good morning, here's what's happening in politics around the state.

Virginia lawmakers struggle with the reality that the piggy bank is empty for transportation. Gov. Kaine has decided to delay part of the HOT Lanes project, a decision that drew an instant rebuke from GOP gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell.

The Post uses Virginia as a test case for the health care debate and finds broad skepticism.

State lawmakers have begun working on legislation to address a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision that could make prosecuting criminals more difficult. The General Assembly meets tomorrow to consider the changes and will likely get some bad news about the state budget too, says the Fredericksburg Free-Lance Star.

UPDATE: Another poll out today, this one from Research 2000 for the liberal blog Daily Kos, also finds the race near even with a large number of undecideds -- Deeds at 30 percent, Moran at 27 and McAuliffe at 26 with 17 percent undecided -- but adds one thing the Suffolk poll does not have: trend.

In late May, the same poll found a vastly different race, with McAuliffe at 36 percent, Moran at 22 and Deeds lagging behind at 13 percent, suggesting the tides are moving in Deeds's direction across the state (he's climbed 16 points in Northern Virginia, 18 points in the rest of the state) as Election Day closes in.

Original Post:

With Virginia's Democratic gubernatorial primary just a few days away, a new poll from Suffolk University confirms one thing we know for sure about this race: there are a lot of undecided voters.

The new poll, conducted using live interviewers, adds to the stack of polling showing a large chunk of the potential electorate has not yet made up their mind on the contest, and those who express an opinion are fairly evenly divided, with no one candidate holding a statistically significant lead. More than one-fifth, 22 percent, of likely Democratic primary voters in the Suffolk poll said they are undecided, and half of those who did express support for a candidate said they are very or somewhat likely to change their minds before Tuesday's vote, meaning a combined 61 percent are uncertain of their vote.

Overall, the three candidates run nearly evenly: state senator Creigh Deeds at 29 percent, former DNC chair and Clinton campaign veteran Terry McAuliffe at 26 percent and former state delegate Brian Moran at 23 percent. But there is more air between the candidates among the 37 percent who said they are unlikely to switch candidates before Tuesday's vote. Deeds holds a slight lead among that group, 44 percent back him, compared with 34 percent who favor McAuliffe and 23 percent who back Moran.

U.S. Rep. Gerald E. Connolly (D-Va.) will hold his annual St. Patrick's Day party Tuesday at the Kena Temple in Fairfax featuring the usual fare of corned beef, cabbage and a Democratic straw poll.

Connolly is expecting upwards of 500 guests. The straw poll will measure support for candidates in this year's contested Democratic primaries for governor and lieutenant governor.

Most Democratic statewide candidates are expected to attend, organizers said. For tickets, contact Donald Brownlee at 703-267-6888. The event will run from 7 to 9:30 p.m. in the ballroom of the Kena Temple, 9001 Arlington Blvd., Fairfax.

Virginia voters are split on whether they approve of the steps the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department have taken to deal with the current upheaval on Wall Street, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The poll found 46 percent of residents approve while 42 percent disapprove. But strong opponents outnumber strong supporters by 2 to 1 (21 to 10 percent).

The poll was conducted just as the public was starting to absorb President Bush's proposal for a $700 billion bailout of the financial markets. Republicans were somewhat more likely than Democrats and Independents to support the government's efforts. White voters who graduated from college are also more supportive than those who did not.

Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman Gerald E. Connolly, the Democratic nominee in the 11th congressional district, claims he has a 31-point lead over his Republican opponent, Keith Fimian.

Connolly's campaign released an internal poll that his pollster, Lake Research Partners, conducted from July 10 to July 14. According to the survey, Connolly receives 52 percent of the vote to Fimian's 21 percent. Independent Green Party candidate Joe Oddo receives 2 percent. The candidates are vying to replace Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.), who is retiring.

"This is a real pick-up opportunity for Democrats as they seek to expand their governing majority," pollsters Celinda Lake and Joshua Ulibarri wrote in a memo. "Connolly is well-positioned to win."

But the memo reads somewhat like a fundraising appeal.

Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) is urging Democrats not to take Republican Senate James S. Gilmore III for granted. In an email, Kaine urges people to donate to Democratic candidate Mark R. Warner because Gilmore will be formidable.

"Mark Warner is facing one of the fiercest, most aggressive campaigners in our state's history," said Kaine, who is asking people to donate $5 to Warner. "Before you know it, the polls will tighten, negative attacks will hit the airwaves, and Mark will need the resources to fire back and get his message out."

Ana Gamonal, a Gilmore spokesman, said she doesn't have a problem with Kaine calling her boss "fierce".

"They realize this race is not over as some folks have said," Gamonal said. "We absolutely believe as we move forward into the debates and we start talking substance and policy issues, and Mark Warner is forced to take positions, that Jim Gilmore will win the November election."

The congressional campaign of Leslie L. Byrne has released details from an internal poll showing her in a statistical dead heat with fellow Democrat Gerald E. Connolly.

The two are competing in the June 10 primary along with two others, Doug Denneny and Lori P. Alexander, for the Democratic nomination in the 11th Congressional District, where incumbent Tom Davis is retiring. The winner will face Republican newcomer Keith Fimian in the fall in an increasingly blue-leaning district that includes much of central Fairfax County and a part of Prince William County.

According to an internal memo issued by the campaign, Connolly is ahead of Byrne 37 percent to 34 percent among likely Democratic primary voters -- a statistical dead heat given the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

To figure out James S. Gilmore III's campaign strategy in next year's U.S. Senate race, one only has to listen to him for a few minutes.

In an interview with reporters at the Virginia Republican Party retreat last weekend, Gilmore stressed that former governor Mark R. Warner, the likely Democratic nominee for Senate, won't be on the ballot by himself.

"My strategy is defeating a Clinton-Warner ticket," said Gilmore, who is assuming that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York will be the Democratic nominee for president. "It will be Hillary Clinton together with Mark Warner, and at that point, people's opinion about the ticket will change."

Earlier today, I conducted a 20-minute interview with New York Public Radio about Virginia politics.

Amy Eddings, a guest host for the "The Leonard Lopate Show" on WYNC, wanted to know if Virginia really is turning blue? We discussed last week's state legislative elections and next year's presidential and U.S. Senate contests. I also took questions about the state's shifting demographics, illegal immigration and the role of military voters in state politics.

You can find an audio clip of the interview here.

Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) will spend the weekend stumping in Iowa for Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign.

Kaine will attend a series of coffees and small meetings for Obama in Cedar Rapids, Vinton, Waverly, Charles City, Osage, Mason City, Algona, Fort Dodge and Webster City. Iowa holds its first-in-the-nation nominating caucus Jan. 3.

Kaine will be traveling by himself, meaning he will be the top draw and the main messenger for Obama at each location.

"In Virginia and the rest of our great nation, people from across the political spectrum are excited by Senator Obama's commitment to uniting our country to make progress on the issues that matter to everyday Americans," said Kaine. "Barack Obama is the best candidate to lead America because he has the experience we need to challenge the conventional thinking in Washington and bring us together to work towards common goals."

The pollster for Fairfax County Chairman Gerald E. Connolly (D) says his re-election campaign provides an example of how illegal immigration can be turned into "a second-tier issue" by candidates who emphasize problem-solving and leadership.

A new poll shows former governor Mark R. Warner (D) with a nearly 2 to 1 lead in next year's U.S. Senate race over either one of his potential GOP challengers.

The poll by Christopher Newport University shows Warner beating either former governor James P. Gilmore III or Rep. Thomas M. Davis III by a margin of 24 points. If the election were held today, 51 percent of voters would support Warner while 27 percent said they would favor either Gilmore or Davis.

The Christopher Newport University survey also found that voters have a negative view of the Republican-controlled General Assembly, but they support Democratic Gov. Timothy M. Kaine.

Jon Cohen, the Washington Post polling director, and polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta, conducted an online chat today on the paper's recent Virginia poll. The poll found that Democrat Mark R. Warner has a big lead in next year's U.S. Senate race. The paper also reported that a majority of voters want the Democrats to take control of the General Assembly.

You can find Jon and Jennifer's chat here.

Gov. Timothy M. Kaine's approval rating has dropped 14 points in the last year, but a large majority of residents still think he is doing a good job, according to a Washington Post poll scheduled to be published Sunday.

The poll will cover Virginians' views on next month's election for control of the General Assembly. It willl also gauge voters' attitudes about the two parties as well as issues such as transportation and the environment. A poll published today looked at next year's Senate and presidential race.

Kaine has been campaigning for Democratic candidates running for the House and Senate. In a Washington Post poll last year, Kaine scored an unusually high 77 percent approval rating. But this weekend's poll shows Kaine with a 63 percent approval rating.