Crunching the numbers

It's becoming increasingly clear that the playing rotation and roster is taking shape even with four fake (I mean, preseason) games to go, including tonight's against Lithuanian team Zalgiris Kaunas at VC. We know the starters are Arenas, Stevenson, Butler, Jamison and B Haywood. The top three reserves will likely be Daniels, Songaila and Blatche (based on his ability to play the backup 5 and his performance thus far in camp and the first four games).

Yesterday, Coach Eddie Jordan said that he plans on using the last four games to determine the 9-12 slots. The contenders: guard Roger Mason Jr, forward-center Oleksiy Pecherov, forward Dominic McGuire and guard Nick Young. Roger can play both guard spots and has shown an ability to knock down open shots and run the offense.
Like Blatche, Pesh can play PF and C and he can shoot the three-ball as well as anyone on the team (we know he's willing to shoot, that's for sure). Another valuable thing about Pesh: he's a worker bee so Jordan can use the competition between him and Blatche to motivate both players.

"Who is going to climb the lader a little bit faster than the other guy?" Jordan said. "It's about growth and understanding what we want and developing quicker."

McGuire has impressed the staff with his rugged style on defense and ability to make things happen on offense without having plays called for him. He gets his on offensive rebounds and other hustle plays. This team seriously needed a guy like that off the bench last season. Too early to get a read on Nick Young. He had his best game the other night at Chicago and is working hard but as an offensive-minded guy who needs the ball, it always takes longer to adjust.

"We know our top eight guys right now and we're looking at who is going to be that ninth guy," Jordan said.

Now, I'm hearing that the Wiz may only keep 13 players and that includes Etan Thomas so Mike Hall, Donell Taylor and Tony Massenburg could be on the outside looking in right now. All three could use some good games here down the stretch of the preseason.

By Ivan Carter |  October 19, 2007; 10:19 AM ET
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first ?

Posted by: mark | October 19, 2007 10:43 AM

Wish they could keep Hall, doesnt seem like its going to happen.

Posted by: the cheat | October 19, 2007 10:45 AM

The sooner McGuire makes it into the regular rotation, the better this team will be. I don't mean that Jordan should put him before he's ready. I mean that once McGuire is good enough and elbows his way into getting regular minutes, that will mean good things for the team.

It will be interesting to see what positions McGuire can play. The 3 for sure. Can he play the 4? The 2? If just the 3, he's either going to just be backing upon Caron, or, if Caron can play the 2, McGuire can essentially be Stevenson's backup, with Caron moving to the 2 while McGuire's on the court. If he can play the 4, he might really push Blatche and Pecherov for minutes.

One criticism I had last year was that Jordan never had a defensive 5 he could turn to in certain situations. This year -- again if Caron can defend 2s -- a squad of Gilbert or Daniels (or Taylor, if he's still around), Caron, McGuire, Blatche and Haywood could be really tough defensively.

P.S. Yesterday my comment that Gilbert went to the second round with Kwame while Kobe did not was just a joke. But I'm glad it spurred some Kwame-centric discussions. Nothing puts a smile on one's face like a slow stroll down Kwame Brown memory lane.

Posted by: Sean | October 19, 2007 10:51 AM

This may be a stupid question but why would they only keep 13?

Posted by: Lisa | October 19, 2007 10:58 AM

I think I'm most excited about Pesh out of everything I've seen this preseason. I think you'll see his minutes go up as the season progresses, especially if Haywood/Blatche show they can't perform.

- Ray

Posted by: Ray | October 19, 2007 10:59 AM

And why keep Etan on the roster? Is it the money? Do they really want him to play this season? Or are they just keeping on the roster hoping he'll be healthy enough come playoff time?

Posted by: Bart | October 19, 2007 11:06 AM

There is a lot of talent on this team. I'd like to see management do a better job of: 1)planning for injuries, 2) balancing future performance against current performance, and 3) anticipating and planning for behavior not in the best interests of the team (given past behaviors).

All of these issues require a more equal balance of playing time than in previous years.

So, rather than providing extra recognition for individual scoring, why doesn't the organization institute a "rewards program" focused on what it deems the most important area(s)for improvement (e.g., team defense, development of the young players, etc.). Even the big three could be assigned responsibilities in this regard, rather than just carrying the scoring load.

Posted by: Izman | October 19, 2007 11:10 AM

If thats true, this will be the first season since forever that the wiz did not have 15 players on the roster at the beginning of the season. This stinks, Etan can easily be placed on a special list, meaning the wiz could keep the other 3 (at least 2). I'm sure if for no other reason, it would help in practice. A regular is always dinged and can't practice. These guys (players) are very cheap ... so how much could they be costing ... Oh ... I forgot, the owner is also very cheap.

Posted by: 2cents4wiz | October 19, 2007 11:11 AM

The Wizards might keep only 13 because of the luxury tax, I believe. Does anyone have the numbers? As I understand it, even if keeping a 14th player only costs less than a million in salary, it still could cost the organization several million because the Wizards wouldn't receive its cut of the luxury tax money (thank you, Isiah!). Is Tony Massenburg really worth $5 million or more?

Posted by: Anonymous | October 19, 2007 11:19 AM

In only keeping 13, I'm guessing that sends a message that Jordan/Grunfeld think that other team cuts will yield better than Massenburg,Taylor and Hall. It's hard to understand why Thomas is still on active. Even if he comes back near the end of the year, he would be in no basketball shape for the playoff run,so that must be financial motivation. Non-sports injury must not be covered by insurance.

Posted by: Beeb | October 19, 2007 11:20 AM

Not sure there is that much mystery about who's going to be the 9th man--DM has


I suspect Donnell has played himself out of a job in the preseason, unfortunately. Somehow, he got into his head that he should try to be a jump shooter instead of an agressive on-ball defender and pass-first point. If I were Eddie, I'd keep him though. He seems like a hard-working, hustling guy, he's got good quickness, he doesn't have an expensive contract, and once he gets back to focusing on what he does well, I think he could help the team in the right situations.

Posted by: John Brisker | October 19, 2007 11:21 AM

I would be shocked if Taylor makes the team. He's regressing, and has no feel whatsoever for the game. How do you get worse with experience? He seems to have done it.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Blatche starting at center by mid-season. Not only does Eddie have his personal grudge against Haywood, but Blatche can do so many things Haywood can't, like handle the ball, run the floor, pass and shoot from more than six feet away. That means Haywood will be what he should always have been -- a solid backup 5.

McGuire has to be in that rotation. His hustle, defensive prowess and energy are infectious. I'd like to see Young get some PT, too. Maybe not as a regular sub, but not buried at the end of the bench all year, either. He's improved a good bit this preseason, from what I've seen.


Keith

Posted by: Keithinator | October 19, 2007 11:33 AM

Well, I'm no expert, I just play one on this blog. If it comes down to Hall, Taylor, and Massenburg, I would have to go with Hall. I think he has more to offer, he knows the offense, and I think he will be an NBA player for many years ( probably off the bench), but I think he is good enough and a hard worker. Massenburg is done. This would have been a nice, feel good story for an ex-terp, but the wiz can do without him. Donnell Tayor, is there really a need to even discuss him?

Posted by: 2cents4wiz | October 19, 2007 11:42 AM

Keith ... why r u stirring up trouble? If Blatche is good enough to become a starter, then Brendan would have to become a backup. Again. Do we really want that?

Brendan as a backup hurts team chemistry. So what if Blatche actually becomes better, it doesn't/won't matter. We have to keep Brendan happy, and the only way to do that is for him to start. And its all about keeping him happy, isn't it?

Posted by: 2cents4wiz | October 19, 2007 11:50 AM

I agree with the comments that say Brendan is best as a starter. But EJ also has to consider him, when appropriate, as a finisher. The guy plays well, sometimes exceptionally so, when he feels he is being appreciated and otherwise tends to sulk. This is not because he is a bad guy, it is just the way he is wired.

I also agree with the comment that the Wizards are likely to be watching the waivers and cuts very carefully. If they can pick up a true point guard or a big guy with a live body, they should. In the big guys with waster talent department, what a pity that Keon Clark seems to have gone over to the dark side, because he is the type of player the Wizrads need to round out their bench.

Posted by: khrabb | October 19, 2007 11:58 AM

"I would be shocked if Taylor makes the team."

I think it's gonna come down between him and Hall and Taylor might be the odd man out with AD here.

"Again. Do we really want that?"

I can't speak for Keith, but we can all see the talent with Blatche and Pesh and it's encouraging. If Haywood doesn't produce then you're gonna see Jordan pull him, it's inevitable.

I'm expecting the same thing to happen myself. That or Haywood's minutes go down while Blatche/Pesh's gradually go up as the season progress's.

Saying that, I don't think it would be wise for Haywood's career for him to whine and complain if that happens then it won;t just be an "Etan" thing.

Personally I have no clue what to expect with Jordan's rotations. One night he runs 10 players, others he runs 8.

We'll see in a couple weeks I guess.

"It's hard to understand why Thomas is still on active."

Maybe it's a money thing in his contract and they are trying to help him out, who knows. But I would be hard pressed to see anyone play so soon after having heart surgery.

- Ray

Posted by: Ray | October 19, 2007 12:06 PM

I still like Taylor. Mike Hall has a limited to no upside at this point. But those would be my two spots to ge to 15. hall can shoot shen open, but just does not give the agression needed for a 4 in the NBA.

Taylor still has no shot, which is a shame after 2-3 years in the league. but his athletic ability and quicks are legit. He can still get to the hole against anyone and defend as well.

massenburg is a joke really. I salute the guy for 40, but what will he be but a solid practice player. I would rather they get the fat 6-10 kid from last year, and give him a shot to grow practicing with the team.

Posted by: RobGreg | October 19, 2007 12:21 PM

I was being sarcastic in my earlier comments. In no way am I defending why Brendan should be the starter. The better player should be the starter. Currently, that is Brendan. But from the looks of things, I, too, see Pech and Blatche eventually out-playing Brendan, and eventually taking his starting spot.

That's how life works. Brendan needs to either, be the best, or deal with it like a professional and an adult.

May the best man win.

Posted by: 2cents4wiz | October 19, 2007 12:22 PM

Unless Etna retires, he has to be on the roster; not the 12 men active roster, but the 15 men roster, which already includes 3 inactive players (used to be called injured reserves). Now if Etan is out for the season, then Wizards may petition the league to add one more player. But the news says Etan may return late in the season, so no exception can be granted.

I believe Wizards will eventually add more players to the 13 named, it just that they may not be the 3 that currently with the team.

Posted by: Sagaliba | October 19, 2007 12:26 PM

I'm not sure why you guys aren't understanding this, but right now, the team's options are to keep Etan on the roster or cut him. They're not going to cut him and pay him over the next 3 years, so he's on the roster this season.

Posted by: Anonymous | October 19, 2007 12:30 PM

Why only 13? I'd like to see Hall make the team, seems he has played well. If that's the case though, it doesn't seem likely. I definately don't see Massenburg or Taylor making it. I can only assume they want to keep a spot or 2 open to bring in a final cut from another team.

As far as the rotation... the 9th guy to me would be McGuire. I also really like what I see from Pesh and think he can contribute. I think Hall might miss out because of McGuire, and Pesh has also shown the ability to play the 3, plus Jamison can go there as well. But I guess I would look at Blatche, Songaila, McGuire and AD to round out the top 9, with Pesh, Young and Mason filling out the 12 man roster (Etan as 13).

As far as a complete 2nd unit, I really like Blatche, Songaila, Pesh, McGuire and Daniels. That unit has alot of size, versatility and athleticism. There seems to be good chemistry with AD and Songaila, as well as with Blatche and Pesh. McGuire brings so many intagibles with his defense, rebounding, and play making. I can see the ball movement being very good with that group, as well as the rebounding and D. Young can be substituted for McGuire when we want more offensive punch, and Mcguire can slide up to the frontcourt in place of Pesh or Songaila when we want more speed. Mason is solid as a 5th guard with his ability to play both spots, solid D, and hit the 3.

In general I see the bench like this:

Blatche - C/PF
Songaila - PF/C
Pesh - PF/SF
DMac - SF/SG
Young - SG
Mason - SG/PG
Daniels - PG

Posted by: Darnell | October 19, 2007 12:37 PM

"This may be a stupid question but why would they only keep 13?"

Money.

Posted by: kalorama | October 19, 2007 12:47 PM

Samaki Walker anyone?

...I'm kidding

Posted by: David | October 19, 2007 12:50 PM

"And why keep Etan on the roster? Is it the money? Do they really want him to play this season? Or are they just keeping on the roster hoping he'll be healthy enough come playoff time?"

I think you're confusing the meaning of "roster" and "active roster." Roster just refers He'll obviously be on the inactive list to start the season, because he can't play. But they have no choice but the keep him on the overall roster, because he's git a fat guaranteed contract.

Posted by: kalorama | October 19, 2007 12:51 PM

My guess is that with Thomas he would have to be put on a medically unable to perform list. Which would in effect end his career, I'd think that they will delay that decision for awhile yet.

Even before Etan's problem I had been saying that this is going to be a transistion year at the 5. I beleive so even more now, not sure that Blatche will be starting but he may get more and more of the minutes.

Pecherov has the skills to be a 5 in the Princeton. He's got some maturing to do but down the line I could really see him being the 5 and Blatche sliding between the 4 and the 5.

MacGuire may even get some run at the 5 against certain matchups to chase around some of these guys like Diaw from the Suns.

I'm kind of surprised of that the Wizards are thinging about only going with 12 + Etan. Most likely has to do with luxury cap level and guys carried out of camp contracts being qaurenteed if they are on the roster by a certain date.

The Wizards must be skimming close to that tax level, I'd agree not many teams are going to pay the tax just to carry a 13-15th player.

Posted by: GM | October 19, 2007 12:53 PM

My guess is that with Thomas he would have to be put on a medically unable to perform list. Which would in effect end his career...

Why would it end his career?

Posted by: kalorama | October 19, 2007 1:00 PM

GKC,

There are many things to consider when making a trade. So if Kobe gets here... does he become captain. I don't think Antawn or Caron would appreciate that too much. And if you say that Kobe would allow Antawn and Caron to remain captains, with Kobe's infamous ego, I can assure you that wouldnt happen.

Kobe to DC would IMMEDIATELY kill all the chemistry the front office has been building over the past years and because of this fact, is the reason why I can guarantee you that Ernie wont even put out an offer.

Posted by: David | October 19, 2007 12:40 PM
--------------------

David, let's keep this going.

Caron played with Kobe in L.A., do you think EG knows whether those two could play together and make it work? I agree that Kobe in L.A. is a huge cancer to that team. However, sometimes a change of scenery makes a big difference. Maybe the Wiz would get Kobe the Teammate rather than Hollywood Kobe. Caron would have a good idea about that.

C'MON PEOPLE! WHAT'S WRONG WITH GIL, DESHAWN, AND NICK FOR KOBE??? (Assuming the numbers work.)

Posted by: GKC | October 19, 2007 1:19 PM

Wasn't Caron traded from the Lakers because he didn't want to continue playing with Kobe? Anyone else hear that?

Posted by: Anonymous | October 19, 2007 1:41 PM

Alright, checking the trade machine, they would have to wait until December to include DeShawn, but it would work! (They could include Songaila right now, of course. Roughly same salary.)

I'm telling you, the more I think about this, the more I like it--as long as Caron would be cool with it.

Posted by: GKC | October 19, 2007 1:43 PM

It aint happening. Why would the Lakers take a guy coming off knee surgery whose contract contains an out after this year? IT WILL NOT HAPPEN. Next. Donnell Taylor is a 33 point guard and the 12th man on this team at best. he's not even worth the paragraph I just wrote about him. next. EJ's history shows that he will not play rookies or even 2nd year guys before veterans. We may as well get used to seeing Songaila, Daniels, Blatche in that order. As much as McGuire and Pech could use the time to get their feet wet and build confidence, EJ won't do it.They''l be lucky to get 5 minutes per game on average. It's gonna take a retirement or injury to see much action from the young guys and our starters are all set for the next few years (assuming Gil re-ups and Tawn gets a new deal which is likely)

Posted by: mark | October 19, 2007 1:43 PM

Lots of good, realistic comments on this thread, particularly by sean and (as usual) GM. Obviously the luxury cap is a factor in keep the active roster down, but even before Thomas' surgery it was a given that the Wizards would be watching the waiver wires. Now it's a necessity. No way they can get through the whole season and absorb the inevitable injuries with no taxi squad.

Of the three probable cuts, the one most of us will be sorriest to see will be Hall. Massenberg has had a long career (and I still think he'll be around for practices, they'll need a big body), and Taylor--as pointed out here--has had every chance to break through. Last season he proved beyond any doubt that he's not a 1--nor a 2. We all know he can jump, though.

Posted by: KTV | October 19, 2007 1:45 PM

mark,

I don't think Gil will re-up. Call it a hunch. The West Coast is too strong a pull.

Posted by: GKC | October 19, 2007 1:47 PM

"Wasn't Caron traded from the Lakers because he didn't want to continue playing with Kobe? Anyone else hear that?"

No. I heard just the opposite. There was a piece on Caron that came out last season (don't remember where) that said he and Kobe got along quite well, they worked out together and even hung out some off the court. He got traded because the Lakers need a big man more than they needed another swingman, and they thought (foolishly) that Kwame was the answer for them.

Posted by: kalorama | October 19, 2007 1:49 PM

oops...I accidentally sent before I finished what I was saying. I think DM obviously is the ninth man--he's really relentless on the glass and has great potential as a defensive stopper.

Posted by: John Brisker | October 19, 2007 1:52 PM

No. I heard just the opposite. There was a piece on Caron that came out last season (don't remember where) that said he and Kobe got along quite well, they worked out together and even hung out some off the court. He got traded because the Lakers need a big man more than they needed another swingman, and they thought (foolishly) that Kwame was the answer for them.

Posted by: kalorama | October 19, 2007 01:49 PM

----------------------

DO THIS TRADE!!! DO IT! (Am I being subtle enough?) What are the arguments against this?

Posted by: GKC | October 19, 2007 1:54 PM

DMAC is this year's Michael Ruffin, in terms of what role he plays and when he comes off the bench.

Posted by: Washingotn Ball | October 19, 2007 3:32 PM

DMac is Ruffin without the fear of squirrels.

Posted by: the cheat | October 19, 2007 4:25 PM

DMac should get Ruffin's minutes and then some.

Posted by: Anonymous | October 19, 2007 5:28 PM

The ninth guy will likely be between McGuire and Pech, and probably go to McGuire. I would like to see McGuire improve his outside shot and free throw shooting to become a more complete player (maybe an awesome player).

If the Wiz go with a 13 man roster including Etan, the only reason I can think of for them to do this is because of the luxury cap. Of Taylor, Massenburg and Hall, Hall would be the most useful to keep around if they decide to go beyond 13.

As far as Etan remaining on the roster, maybe the Wiz are thinking he could play in the playoffs this season. Remember it was mentioned there was one NBA player who had a similar operation and was playing again after six months.

Posted by: Tim | October 19, 2007 5:34 PM

Well, the reality with Taylor is he will likely go to the nbdl and IF the Wizards changed their mind, or got in a bind, he would be back in a heartbeat.

And clearly the luxury tax is at issue.

When you usually only play 8 guys, do you really need to keep 15 on the roster when you have a hundred or so guys in the NBDL who would jump at the chance for a 10 day contract. (In the event of several injuries occuring in short order)

Donell struggled at UAB coming out of Juco. Especially since they started him at point guard.

His senior year, playing the 2, she shined. And he was a pretty good 3 point shooter too.

Im suprised that his shot didnt develop since being in the NBA.

I think it was clear to him when they guaranteed Masons contract and not his that he needed to shoot the ball better and maybe thats what he tried to do in the presason so far. Without much luck it seems.

His brother was a near NBDL all-star last year and Donell is better than his brother so he should do well in the D-league.

His brother went back overseas this year.

I guess the money differential is significant.

Hindsight is 20-20 but Donell would have been better off signing overseas when he found out he wouldnt get a guaranteed contract.

I hope he was able to set aside a few hundred thousand because he may get back in the NBA again. (Except perhaps for a 10 day contract or two)

Posted by: Anonymous | October 19, 2007 10:10 PM

Nice analysis on Taylor, GM. At least I assume the above was your post.

Posted by: Anonymous | October 20, 2007 10:17 AM

I think we need to keep 15, rather than go with 13. Didn't last year's collapse via the injury bug teach us anything? Better to have a squad that's familiar with the plays and with each other than trying to integrate someone down the road. That said, keep Taylor and Hall. Both have potential and can provide quality minutes if given the opportunity. Massenburg, however, is another story. I say we keep his slot open and look for a decent big body when the Turk starts cutting and familiar names begin to hit the waiver wire.

Posted by: KappaKidToo | October 20, 2007 3:01 PM

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